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ALA

Alabama 48 at Ole Miss 43

MISS
2016 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2016 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+24.4MISS 31.3%Chad Kelly pass complete to A.J. Brownfor 37 yds for a TD, (Two-PointConversion failed )AWAY 48 - HOME 43 · Q4 2:51
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:51 · Chad Kelly pass complete to A.J. Brown for 37 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 196Pregame prior−1.0Home team on offense−7.8Score differential−3.1Garbage-time factor−10.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:10: Calvin Ridley run for 6 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +16.1 pts (now 42%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:16: Bo Scarbrough run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +17.9 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:33: Damien Harris run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +12.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:28: Jonathan Allen 75 Yd Fumble Return (Adam Griffith Kick) — ALA win probability +12.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:51: Chad Kelly pass complete to A.J. Brown for 37 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — MISS win probability +24.4 pts (now 31%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 9ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 8
  1. Q1 5:54ALA 4th & 4 at MISS 14, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.2%−<0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    63.9%−1.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:52MISS 4th & 12 at MISS 8, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−0.6
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:26ALA 4th & 10 at MISS 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    62.2%−1.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:49MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 38, up 4
    Close callPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:44ALA 4th & 9 at ALA 14, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:31MISS 4th & 4 at MISS 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:20ALA 4th & 13 at ALA 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−1.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:43MISS 4th & 4 at ALA 6, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.5%−0.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    38.0%−4.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:32ALA 4th & 5 at MISS 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    49.8%−1.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:05MISS 4th & 3 at MISS 32, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:24ALA 4th & 2 at ALA 44, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:27MISS 4th & 18 at MISS 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−4.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:03ALA 4th & 2 at MISS 12, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.6%−1.5
    86% to make
    Punt
    45.5%−12.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:47MISS 4th & 1 at ALA 1, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.7%−5.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    21.3%−18.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:17MISS 4th & 3 at ALA 21, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.1%−0.8
    74% to make
    Punt
    16.2%−11.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:59ALA 4th & 9 at MISS 39, up 4
    Close callPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    67.1%−1.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:36MISS 4th & 3 at MISS 18, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%−1.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 13:07MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:40MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:10ALA Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:16ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:33ALA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:28ALA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:59MISS Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:51MISS Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    17.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    16.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:3329% → 31%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
29.1%
Chad Kelly run for 3 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
29.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 7 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
29.4%
Akeem Judd run for 2 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
29.5%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+25
29.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 25 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
30.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 15 yds to the Alab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
30.6%
Akeem Judd run for 23 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2FG
18 plays · 61 yds · 6:5669% → 66%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
30.6%
Damien Harris run for 6 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
30.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Hale Hentges for 3 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
31.1%
Damien Harris run for 1 yd to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
31.5%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 4 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+10
31.5%
Jalen Hurts run for 10 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
31.8%
Damien Harris run for 8 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 2
OPP 43
0
32.1%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for no gain to the Miss 43Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+3
32.4%
Damien Harris run for 3 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
32.9%
Jalen Hurts run for 5 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+5
32.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 5 yds to the Miss 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
33.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 4 yds to the Miss 26Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+3
33.6%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 3 yds to the Miss 23Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+3
34.3%
Jalen Hurts run for 3 yds to the Miss 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
34.2%
Joshua Jacobs run for 2 yds to the Miss 18Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+4
34.6%
Damien Harris run for 4 yds to the Miss 14Similar
Q1 5:59
3RD & 4
OPP 14
0
35.2%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Hale HentgesSimilar
Q1 5:54
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+32
33.9%
Adam Griffith 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:0234% → 34%
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
34.2%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 5Similar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+3
34.4%
Akeem Judd run for 3 yds to the Miss 8Similar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 12
OWN 8
0
34.5%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 12
OWN 8
0
34.2%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q1 4:52
4TH & 12
OWN 8
0
34.1%
Will Gleeson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Eddie Jackson at the Alab 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4MISSED FG
11 plays · 23 yds · 3:2666% → 63%
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
34.1%
Jalen Hurts pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-5
34.3%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Alab 43Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+17
34.9%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 17 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
34.2%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 45Similar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 15
OPP 45
-5
34.9%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 20
50
+15
35.5%
Jalen Hurts run for 15 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+6
35.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 6 yds to the Miss 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
34.3%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 31Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+2
34.6%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 2 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q1 1:31
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
35.5%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q1 1:26
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+47
36.6%
Adam Griffith 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2137% → 38%
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
37.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 4 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+2
37.4%
Chad Kelly run for 2 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+3
37.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Eugene Brazley for 3 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
37.6%
Chad Kelly punt for 49 yds, downed at the Alab 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5962% → 60%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
37.9%
Jalen Hurts pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+1
38.2%
Jalen Hurts run for 1 yd to the Alab 14Similar
Q2 13:57
3RD & 9
OWN 14
0
39.0%
Jalen Hurts pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:44
4TH & 9
OWN 14
+3
39.7%
JK Scott punt for 63 yds , Carlos Davis returns for 3 yds to the Miss 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5939% → 38%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
38.6%
Akeem Judd run for 1 yd to the Miss 27Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
38.6%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Akeem JuddSimilar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 9
OWN 27
-10
37.9%
OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Miss 17Similar
Q2 12:55
3RD & 19
OWN 17
+15
38.0%
Chad Kelly run for 15 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q2 12:31
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
38.3%
Gary Wunderlich punt for 68 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:5561% → 58%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
39.3%
Joshua Jacobs run for 6 yds to the Alab 26Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+25
39.0%
Joshua Jacobs run for 25 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
37.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Alab 46Similar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 15
OWN 46
-1
39.3%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 45Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 16
OWN 45
-4
39.9%
Calvin Ridley run for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 41Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 20
OWN 41
+7
40.6%
Damien Harris run for 7 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q2 9:20
4TH & 13
OWN 48
0
41.6%
JK Scott punt for 8 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9FG
5 plays · 50 yds · 1:2743% → 49%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+44
42.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 44 yds to the Alab 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
44.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Van Jefferson for 7 yds to the Alab 5Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 3
OPP 5
0
44.4%
Akeem Judd run for no gain to the Alab 5Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 3
OPP 5
-1
44.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 6Similar
Q2 7:43
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+23
49.0%
Gary Wunderlich 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 1:5752% → 51%
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
48.0%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+30
48.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
50
-8
46.1%
Jalen Hurts run for a loss of 8 yards to the Alab 42 Jalen Hurts fumbled, recovered by Alab Jalen HurtsSimilar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 18
OWN 42
0
48.8%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to ArDarius StewartSimilar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 18
OWN 42
+13
49.8%
Jalen Hurts run for 13 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q2 5:32
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
49.2%
JK Scott punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:3051% → 62%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
51.2%
Eugene Brazley run for 2 yds to the Miss 22Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+15
51.2%
Kelly, Chad pass incomplete, PENALTY ALABAMA roughing passer 15 yards to the OLEMISS37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.Similar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
61.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 63 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12FUMBLE TD
7 plays · 2 yds · 1:3340% → 18%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-7
59.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Damien Harris for a loss of 7 yards to the Alab 35Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 17
OWN 35
+15
61.6%
Hurts, Jalen pass incomplete to Harris, Damien, PENALTY OLEMISS pass interference 15 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
50
+8
60.1%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Damien Harris for 8 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 2
OPP 42
-5
59.6%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 47Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+44
78.2%
Jalen Hurts sacked by Breeland Speaks for a loss of 9 yards Jalen Hurts fumbled, recovered by Miss John Youngblood , return for 0 yards , return for 44 yds, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
82.4%
OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Miss 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 0:2021% → 42%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
50
+22
78.7%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 22 yds to the Miss 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+22
77.5%
Jalen Hurts run for 22 yds to the Miss 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
58.3%
Calvin Ridley run for 6 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14PUNT RETURN TD
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:4564% → 54%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
63.9%
Akeem Judd run for 2 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
64.3%
Akeem Judd run for 2 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
66.4%
Chad Kelly run for 3 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+85
52.9%
Will Gleeson punt for 53 yds , Eddie Jackson returns for 85 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
53.9%
OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15END OF HALF
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:5055% → 57%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
55.0%
Akeem Judd run for 3 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+13
55.4%
Chad Kelly run for 13 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
57.5%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
56.7%
Chad Kelly run for 2 yds to the Miss 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:2645% → 43%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.0%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
55.2%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q3 14:40
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
56.4%
Jalen Hurts run for 11 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
54.5%
Bo Scarbrough run for no gain to the Alab 36Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
55.6%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to O.J. Howard for 6 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+2
54.2%
Jalen Hurts run for 2 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q3 12:24
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
57.0%
JK Scott punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Van Jefferson at the Miss 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17FUMBLE TD
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:1358% → 44%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
58.2%
Akeem Judd run for 3 yds to the Miss 9Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+3
43.9%
Chad Kelly sacked by Ryan Anderson for a loss of 6 yards, fumbled forced by Ryan Anderson and returned 3 yds by Alab Da'Ron Payne for TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:5845% → 43%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
44.7%
Chad Kelly sacked by Shaun Dion Hamilton for a loss of 8 yards to the Miss 17Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 18
OWN 17
0
44.5%
Akeem Judd run for no gain to the Miss 17Similar
Q3 10:37
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
43.2%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:27
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
42.6%
Gary Wunderlich punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Eddie Jackson at the Alab 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 4:1259% → 65%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
41.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to O.J. Howard for 18 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
38.8%
Damien Harris run for 9 yds to the Miss 36Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+2
38.6%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
38.0%
Jalen Hurts run for no gain to the Miss 34Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
38.2%
Jalen Hurts pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+14
39.9%
Jalen Hurts run for 14 yds to the Miss 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
37.9%
Bo Scarbrough run for 5 yds to the Miss 15Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 5
OPP 15
-10
38.0%
ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Miss 25Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 15
OPP 25
+11
40.0%
Jalen Hurts run for 11 yds to the Miss 14Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+2
39.7%
Jalen Hurts run for 2 yds to the Miss 12Similar
Q3 6:03
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+30
35.3%
Adam Griffith 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20FG
14 plays · 74 yds · 4:0839% → 51%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
38.6%
Eugene Brazley run for 3 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
39.0%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+16
37.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 16 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
42.3%
Eugene Brazley run for 5 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+7
42.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Van Jefferson for 7 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
43.1%
Akeem Judd run for no gain to the Alab 44Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+11
43.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 11 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+32
44.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 32 yds to the Alab 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
45.9%
Akeem Judd run for no gain to the Alab 1Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
46.1%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Alab 6Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
46.4%
Chad Kelly run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 8Similar
Q3 1:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
43.9%
Chad Kelly run for 7 yds to the Alab 1Similar
Q3 1:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+18
51.4%
Gary Wunderlich 18 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:0455% → 79%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
45.4%
Damien Harris run for 7 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q3 1:06
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+67
43.0%
Damien Harris run for 67 yds to the Miss 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
39.3%
Bo Scarbrough run for no gain to the Miss 1Similar
Q3 0:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
21.4%
Bo Scarbrough run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22FG
9 plays · 54 yds · 1:4326% → 36%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
26.3%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for 3 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+22
26.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Van Jefferson for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
50
+7
30.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 7 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+15
30.9%
Kelly, Chad pass incomplete to Engram, Evan, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference 15 yards to the ALABAMA28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.Similar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
32.0%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
31.9%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+7
29.6%
Chad Kelly run for 7 yds to the Alab 21Similar
Q4 13:17
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+38
36.4%
Gary Wunderlich 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 38 yds · 1:5169% → 70%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-10
31.0%
ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Alab 13Similar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 20
OWN 13
+2
30.7%
Bo Scarbrough run for 2 yds to the Alab 15Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 18
OWN 15
+45
30.9%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 45 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
26.8%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Gehrig DieterSimilar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+1
26.7%
Bo Scarbrough run for 1 yd to the Miss 39Similar
Q4 11:06
3RD & 9
OPP 39
0
27.2%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Joshua JacobsSimilar
Q4 10:59
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
30.3%
JK Scott punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Van Jefferson at the Miss 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0434% → 31%
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
34.4%
Akeem Judd run for 1 yd to the Miss 12Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 9
OWN 12
0
34.2%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Damore'ea StringfellowSimilar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 9
OWN 12
+6
32.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 6 yds to the Miss 18Similar
Q4 9:36
4TH & 3
OWN 18
+10
30.9%
Gary Wunderlich punt for 50 yds , Eddie Jackson returns for 10 yds to the Alab 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 25TD
5 plays · 58 yds · 1:5774% → 91%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+41
25.9%
Jalen Hurts run for 41 yds to the Miss 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
23.0%
Damien Harris run for 3 yds to the Miss 14Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+9
22.6%
Jalen Hurts run for 9 yds to the Miss 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
21.7%
Jalen Hurts run for 4 yds to the Miss 1Similar
Q4 7:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
9.2%
Damien Harris run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 26FUMBLE RETURN TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 1:4212% → 2%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+44
11.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Van Jefferson for 44 yds to the Alab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
15.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 6 yds to the Alab 25Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+4
16.1%
Akeem Judd run for 4 yds to the Alab 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
15.2%
Akeem Judd run for 1 yd to the Alab 20Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 9
OPP 20
0
15.1%
Chad Kelly run for no gain to the Alab 20Similar
Q4 5:28
3RD & 9
OPP 20
-75
2.8%
Jonathan Allen 75 Yd Fumble Return (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
Q4 5:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
2.1%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 27TD
13 plays · 78 yds · 2:112% → 9%
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
2.4%
Chad Kelly run for 12 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
2.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Van Jefferson for 5 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 5
OWN 39
0
2.4%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:35
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+6
2.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Van Jefferson for 6 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
2.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 16 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
2.5%
Chad Kelly pass complete to A.J. Brown for 11 yds to the Alab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
2.9%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to A.J. BrownSimilar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
2.7%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+16
2.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 16 yds to the Alab 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
2.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 7 yds to the Alab 5Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 3
OPP 5
0
2.8%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:59
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+5
9.3%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 5 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 28TD
2 plays · 37 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
31.3%
Chad Kelly pass complete to A.J. Brown for 37 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 29END OF GAME
11 plays · 26 yds · 2:2087% → 97%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
13.5%
Damien Harris run for 3 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+17
13.0%
Damien Harris run for 17 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
5.9%
Bo Scarbrough run for 4 yds to the Alab 49 Bo Scarbrough fumbled, recovered by AlabSimilar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+5
5.7%
Damien Harris run for 5 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+1
5.2%
Damien Harris run for 1 yd to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
5.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 47Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 47
-2
3.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:51
Chad Kelly pass complete to A.J. Brown for 37 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+24.4
TD · Q3 0:16
Bo Scarbrough run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)
-17.9
TD · Q2 2:10
Calvin Ridley run for 6 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)
-16.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com