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NMSU

New Mexico State 42 at Kentucky 62

UK
2016 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2016 · Kroger Field
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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:34 · Peyton Theisler punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kent 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 15Pregame prior+42.1Home team on offense−0.5Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Blowout margin+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:17: Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +5.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:38: Tyler Rogers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) — NMSU win probability +9.8 pts (now 24%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:10: Stephen Johnson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 17 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +5.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:46: Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +5.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:08: Tyler Rogers run for 5 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) — NMSU win probability +9.6 pts (now 19%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NMSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 13:20UK 4th & 9 at UK 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:34NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:04NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:17NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:01UK 4th & 10 at UK 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:38NMSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 40, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:55NMSU 4th & 15 at NMSU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−2.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:04NMSU 4th & 13 at NMSU 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%−1.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:06UK 4th & 9 at NMSU 48, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%
    average punt
  10. Q4 3:41NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 26, down 13
    Close callPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:59NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 25, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 8 of 8NMSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 13:20NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:10UK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:58NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 8:21UK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 2:40NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 12:08UK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 9:33NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 8:17UK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q2 0:58UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q2 0:38NMSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 10:10UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q3 6:46UK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q3 4:08NMSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 13:07UK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UKDrive 1INT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
93.2%
Drew Barker pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 1 yd to the Kent 30Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+1
93.2%
Drew Barker run for 1 yd to the Kent 31Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+10
93.2%
Drew Barker pass intercepted Jaden Wright return for 10 yds to the Kent 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2TD
2 plays · 46 yds · 0:237% → 7%
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
92.8%
Jason Huntley run for 11 yds to the Kent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
92.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 35 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
92.6%
Stephen Johnson run for 1 yd to the Kent 26Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
92.6%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
92.6%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete, broken up by Dalton HerringtonSimilar
Q1 13:20
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
92.6%
Grant McKinniss punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
92.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for 8 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 2
OWN 38
-2
92.3%
Xavier Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q1 12:34
3RD & 4
OWN 36
-4
92.3%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Josh Allen for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 32 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 12:34
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
92.4%
Peyton Theisler punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kent 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5TD
1 play · 63 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
92.3%
Stanley Boom Williams run for 63 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
92.2%
Xavier Hall run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 5
OWN 22
0
92.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+12
92.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Xavier Hall for 12 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
92.2%
Gamar Girdy run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+2
92.1%
Gamar Girdy run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 4
OWN 40
0
92.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Xavier HallSimilar
Q1 11:04
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
92.2%
Peyton Theisler punt for 31 yds , Charles Walker returns for no gain to the Kent 31 Charles Walker fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Izaiah LottieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7TD
1 play · 31 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
90.6%
Tyrian Taylor pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 31 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8TD
3 plays · 77 yds · 0:3391% → 92%
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
90.8%
Stanley Boom Williams run for 5 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+72
91.5%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 72 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 5:419% → 13%
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
91.4%
Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
91.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Tyrian Taylor, broken up by Chris WestrySimilar
Q1 8:21
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
91.5%
Xavier Hall run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
91.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+7
91.3%
Tyler Rogers run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q1 8:21
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+12
91.2%
Tyler Rogers run for 12 yds to the Kent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
91.2%
Jason Huntley run for 6 yds to the Kent 37Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+4
91.2%
Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the Kent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
91.1%
Tyler Rogers run for 4 yds to the Kent 29Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+11
91.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 11 yds to the Kent 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
91.1%
Xavier Hall run for 9 yds to the Kent 9Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+5
91.1%
Tyler Rogers run for 5 yds to the Kent 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
91.1%
Xavier Hall run for 3 yds to the Kent 1Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
91.1%
Xavier Hall run for no gain to the Kent 1Similar
Q1 8:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
91.2%
[SHOT], PENALTY NMSU false start (68) 4 yards to the UK5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
87.0%
Tyrian Taylor run for 5 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10FUMBLE
6 plays · 44 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
87.7%
Stanley Boom Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 22Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+17
87.6%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Jeff Badet for 17 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
87.9%
Stanley Boom Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 38Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+5
87.9%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Greg Hart for 5 yds to the Kent 43Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+11
87.9%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 11 yds C.J. Conrad fumbled, forced by Rodney Butler, recovered by NMxSt Jared PhippsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+20
85.9%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Blake McClain return for 20 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12TD
8 plays · 39 yds · 3:1887% → 88%
Q1 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-3
86.9%
Stanley Boom Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 42
+7
86.3%
Stephen Johnson run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+5
86.6%
[SHOT], Stephen Johnson pass intercepted by Phipps,Jared at the UK17, Phipps,Jared return to the UK17, PENALTY NMSU offside 5 yards to the NMSU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+18
86.7%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 18 yds to the NMxSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
87.0%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 7Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+3
87.0%
Stephen Johnson run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 4Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 4
-5
86.7%
[SHOT], PENALTY UK false start (Kyle Meadows) 5 yards to the NMSU9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+9
88.3%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 9 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 2:3113% → 20%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
87.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+5
87.1%
Xavier Hall run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+14
87.2%
Xavier Hall run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
86.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 14 yds to the Kent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
86.1%
Gamar Girdy run for 12 yds to the Kent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
85.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 15 yds to the Kent 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
85.8%
Tyler Rogers run for 5 yds to the Kent 14Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+7
85.1%
Tyler Rogers run for 7 yds to the Kent 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
85.1%
Xavier Hall run for 2 yds to the Kent 5Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
80.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 5 yds for a TD KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1682% → 88%
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
82.1%
Stanley Boom Williams run for 16 yds to the Kent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
82.9%
[SHOT], Stephen Johnson pass complete to Jeff Badet for 5 yards to the UK46 (Perkins,Austin), PENALTY NMSU offside 5 yards to the UK46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 5
OWN 46
-5
83.2%
[SHOT], PENALTY UK false start (J. Stallings) 5 yards to the UK41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+54
82.9%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Jeff Badet for 54 yds to the NMxSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
88.0%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
85.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+7
85.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 7 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q2 8:17
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
85.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel ScottSimilar
Q2 8:17
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
86.1%
Peyton Theisler punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kent 25 , Charles Walker returns for no gain to the Kent 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
85.9%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Greg Hart for 11 yds to the Kent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
86.3%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
86.2%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Sihiem King for no gain to the Kent 36Similar
Q2 7:01
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
85.6%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q2 7:01
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
85.3%
Grant McKinniss punt for 33 yds, downed at the NMxSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:0417% → 17%
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
83.2%
Xavier Hall run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+3
82.9%
Xavier Hall run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+2
82.6%
Xavier Hall run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q2 4:38
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
82.8%
Peyton Theisler punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18TD
10 plays · 88 yds · 3:3485% → 90%
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+11
84.9%
Stanley Boom Williams run for 11 yds to the Kent 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
85.0%
Stanley Boom Williams run for 13 yds to the Kent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
85.5%
Stephen Johnson run for 3 yds to the Kent 39Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+23
85.9%
Stanley Boom Williams run for 23 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
86.4%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+17
86.9%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 17 yds to the NMxSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
85.7%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+9
85.7%
Stephen Johnson run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.3%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:2011% → 24%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+55
89.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 55 yds to the Kent 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+19
86.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 17 yds to the Kent 3 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul (2 Yards) to the Kent 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
75.9%
Tyler Rogers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20END OF HALF
3 plays · -10 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-10
81.7%
[SHOT], S. Williams rush for 20 yards to the UK41 (Owens,DeMarcus;Perkins,Austin), PENALTY UK holding 10 yards to the UK11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 20
OWN 11
0
81.7%
Team run for no gain to the Kent 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 7 yds · 0:0021% → 19%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
79.2%
Xavier Hall run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+3
78.2%
Xavier Hall run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-15
79.0%
[SHOT], Rogers,Tyler pass incomplete to Hogan,Gregory (Derrick Baity), PENALTY NMSU illegal block 15 yards to the NMSU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 25
OWN 15
+9
79.3%
Xavier Hall run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 16
OWN 24
0
79.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Izaiah Lottie, broken up by Mike EdwardsSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 16
OWN 24
-4
80.2%
[SHOT], PENALTY NMSU false start (Candelarie,D.) 4 yards to the NMSU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 20
OWN 20
+5
80.3%
Tyler Rogers run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 15
OWN 25
+11
80.8%
Peyton Theisler punt for 37 yds , Charles Walker returns for 11 yds to the Kent 36 KENTUCKY Penalty, illegal block (J.D. Harmon) to the Kent 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 2:4681% → 88%
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
80.5%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 9 yds to the Kent 38Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+9
82.0%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 9 yds to the Kent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
82.1%
Stanley Boom Williams run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+18
82.5%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Jeff Badet for 18 yds to the NMxSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
82.9%
Stephen Johnson run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+7
82.9%
Stanley Boom Williams run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
82.9%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-5
82.9%
[SHOT], PENALTY UK false start (Landon Young) 5 yards to the NMSU17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 15
OPP 17
+17
88.4%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 17 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0014% → 12%
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
86.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-3
86.6%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q3 10:04
3RD & 13
OWN 13
0
87.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Izaiah LottieSimilar
Q3 10:04
4TH & 13
OWN 13
0
87.6%
Peyton Theisler punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kent 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 24TD
7 plays · 62 yds · 2:2989% → 94%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
88.5%
Stanley Boom Williams run for 5 yds to the Kent 43Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+13
88.9%
Stanley Boom Williams run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 44 Stanley Boom Williams fumbled, forced by Terrill Hanks, recovered by Kent for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
89.1%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 12 yds to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
89.2%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
89.2%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+14
89.2%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.3%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:388% → 19%
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.5%
Xavier Hall run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
92.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Izaiah Lottie, broken up by Mike EdwardsSimilar
Q3 6:46
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+35
92.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Xavier Hall for 20 yds to the Kent 48 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
91.4%
Tyler Rogers run for 10 yds to the Kent 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
90.6%
Gamar Girdy run for 2 yds to the Kent 25Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+18
90.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 18 yds to the Kent 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
90.6%
Tyler Rogers run for 2 yds to the Kent 5Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
81.0%
Tyler Rogers run for 5 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 26TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:0187% → 96%
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
87.3%
Stanley Boom Williams run for 3 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
87.3%
Stanley Boom Williams run for 2 yds to the Kent 30Similar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-10
86.8%
[SHOT], Stephen Johnson rush for 5 yards to the UK35 (Herrington,D), PENALTY UK holding (Nick Haynes) 10 yards to the UK20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+17
86.3%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 17 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+21
87.8%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 21 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
88.8%
Stanley Boom Williams run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+3
88.8%
Stephen Johnson run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+8
88.3%
Stephen Johnson run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
90.9%
Stephen Johnson run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+15
90.9%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 15 yds to the NMxSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
90.9%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 4Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
95.8%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 27INT
11 plays · 66 yds · 0:006% → 8%
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
93.7%
Jason Huntley run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
92.9%
Jason Huntley run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
93.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
93.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+23
93.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 23 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
92.7%
Tyler Rogers run for 5 yds to the Kent 35Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+5
91.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 5 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
91.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Tyrian Taylor for 5 yds to the Kent 25Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+16
91.7%
Xavier Hall run for 16 yds to the Kent 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
91.7%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted, touchback. Derrick Baity return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 28PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
95.6%
Stanley Boom Williams run for 13 yds to the Kent 33 KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Kent 23Similar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 7
OWN 23
+2
95.7%
Stanley Boom Williams run for 2 yds to the Kent 25Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+8
95.7%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 8 yds to the Kent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+18
95.7%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 18 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
96.0%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 4
OPP 43
-11
96.0%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 44 KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Kent 46Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+6
95.7%
Stephen Johnson run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q4 10:06
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+5
95.8%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 5 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q4 10:06
4TH & 4
OPP 43
-5
95.4%
KENTUCKY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q4 10:06
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
95.3%
Grant McKinniss punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 29PUNT RETURN TD
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:115% → 1%
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
95.1%
Tyler Rogers run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q4 4:52
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
94.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q4 4:52
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+2
95.2%
Tyler Rogers run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q4 3:41
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+65
99.5%
Peyton Theisler punt for 39 yds , Charles Walker returns for 65 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 30TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:41
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Grant McKinniss punt for 65 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 31PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:420% → 0%
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete, broken up by Courtney MigginsSimilar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete, broken up by Courtney MigginsSimilar
Q4 3:41
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Xavier Hall run for no gain to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q4 2:59
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+23
99.9%
Peyton Theisler punt for 55 yds , Charles Walker returns for 23 yds to the Kent 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 32END OF GAME
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
99.9%
Mikel Horton run for 4 yds to the Kent 47Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+3
99.9%
Mikel Horton run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 3
50
+5
99.9%
Mikel Horton run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.9%
Team run for no gain to the NMxSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:38
Tyler Rogers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)
-9.8
TD · Q3 4:08
Tyler Rogers run for 5 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)
-9.6
TD · Q3 10:10
Stephen Johnson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 17 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)
+5.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com