2016 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2016 · Kyle Field
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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadPV aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scorePV score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:05 · Jalen Morton pass complete to Cameron Smith for 13 yds to the PraVw 35 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 12:40: Daniel LaCamera 22 yd FG GOOD — PV win probability +0.1 pts (now 0%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:00: Trevor Knight run for 32 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK) — TA&M win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:12: Trevor Knight pass complete to Speedy Noil for 8 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK) — TA&M win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:03: Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for 34 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK) — TA&M win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 4 of 7PV made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
- Q1 15:00PV 4th & 15 at PV 20, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q1 12:40TA&M 4th & 4 at PV 4, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snapGo for it99.5%40% to convertField goalTheir call99.4%−<0.193% to makePunt98.9%−0.5average punt
- Q1 7:34PV 4th & 9 at TA&M 21, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.130% to convertField goalTheir call0.8%74% to makePunt0.4%−0.4average punt
- Q1 7:34TA&M 4th & 11 at TA&M 47, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snapGo for it99.1%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.2%average punt
- Q1 5:55PV 4th & 10 at PV 26, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q1 1:46PV 4th & 1 at PV 34, down 10Close callPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%−0.1average punt
- Q2 8:10PV 4th & 10 at TA&M 24, down 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.128% to convertField goalTheir call0.7%68% to makePunt0.3%−0.4average punt
- Q2 2:53PV 4th & 3 at PV 27, down 24Close callPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 1:03PV 4th & 10 at PV 25, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 15:00TA&M 4th & 1 at PV 24, up 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%71% to convertField goal99.7%−0.168% to makePunt99.3%−0.5average punt
- Q3 11:11PV 4th & 10 at PV 25, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 8:26TA&M 4th & 4 at PV 9, up 45Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%43% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%−<0.189% to makePunt99.4%−0.5average punt
- Q3 8:26PV 4th & 1 at PV 34, down 48Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q3 6:58TA&M 4th & 7 at PV 31, up 48Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−<0.137% to convertField goal99.9%54% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q3 4:27TA&M 4th & 17 at PV 30, up 48Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.114% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%56% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 14:30PV 4th & 20 at PV 37, down 51Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.210% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 14:30PV 4th & 8 at TA&M 48, down 58Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 12:18TA&M 4th & 22 at TA&M 39, up 58Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.28% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 10:10PV 4th & 3 at PV 41, down 58Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 3:01TA&M Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:00TA&M Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:12TA&M Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:03TA&M Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:33TA&M Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:11TA&M Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:30TA&M Touchdown, up 57 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:32TA&M Touchdown, up 64 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartPVDrive 1PUNT6 plays · -5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q1 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+3
99.7%
Owen Hoolihan punt for 37 yds , Christian Kirk returns for 3 yds to the TexAM 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 2FG7 plays · 50 yds · 1:51100% → 100%
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
99.7%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Speedy Noil, PENALTY PVAM pass interference (Arthur Lockett) 15 yards to the PVAM39, 1ST DOWN TAMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-6
99.7%
Trevor Knight run for a loss of 6 yards to the PraVw 45 Trevor Knight fumbled,Similar
Q1 14:31
2ND & 16
OPP 45
+40
99.7%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Keith Ford for 40 yds to the PraVw 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
99.7%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for a loss of 2 yards to the PraVw 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 3MISSED FG14 plays · 54 yds · 5:060% → 1%
Q1 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.6%
Trey Green pass complete to Demarquo Lastrappe for 14 yds to the PraVw 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+17
99.6%
Trey Green pass complete to Cameron Smith for 17 yds to the TexAM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
99.6%
Trey Green pass incomplete to KhaDarel Hodge, PENALTY PVAM false start (Gus Lopez) 5 yards to the TAMU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+20
99.6%
Trey Green pass complete to Demarquo Lastrappe for 20 yds to the TexAM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
99.4%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Trayveon Williams for 8 yds to the TexAM 46Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-1
99.4%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Trayveon Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 47Similar
Q1 7:34
4TH & 11
OWN 47
0
99.4%
Shane Tripucka punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PraVw 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 5:55
4TH & 10
OWN 26
0
99.3%
Owen Hoolihan punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the TexAM 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 6TD8 plays · 64 yds · 1:5999% → 99%
Q1 5:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+12
99.3%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 12 yds to the PraVw 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+4
99.3%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Speedy Noil for 4 yds to the PraVw 27Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 6
OPP 27
-5
99.3%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, false start (Trayveon Williams) to the PraVw 32Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 11
OPP 32
+21
99.3%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 21 yds to the PraVw 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 1:151% → 1%
TA&MDrive 8TD4 plays · 68 yds · 0:5899% → 99%
PVDrive 9INT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
TA&MDrive 10TD6 plays · 60 yds · 1:3299% → 100%
Q2 13:44
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+20
99.4%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Damion Ratley for 20 yds to the PraVw 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
99.4%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for 8 yds to the PraVw 8Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+8
99.6%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Speedy Noil for 8 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 11MISSED FG14 plays · 67 yds · 4:021% → 1%
Q2 12:12
3RD & 11
OWN 8
+27
99.5%
Trey Green pass complete to Demarquo Lastrappe for 27 yds to the PraVw 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.5%
Trey Green pass incomplete to Joshua Simmons, broken up by Nick HarveySimilar
Q2 12:12
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+16
99.5%
Trey Green pass complete to KhaDarel Hodge for 16 yds to the TexAM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
99.5%
Trey Green pass complete to Demarquo Lastrappe for 4 yds to the TexAM 45Similar
Q2 12:12
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+21
99.5%
Trey Green pass complete to Demarquo Lastrappe for 21 yds to the TexAM 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.5%
Trey Green pass incomplete to Cameron Smith, broken up by Donovan WilsonSimilar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
99.5%
Trey Green pass complete to KhaDarel Hodge for no gain to the TexAM 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 12INT10 plays · 66 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-10
99.5%
Christian Kirk rush for 1 yard to the TAMU25 (Jalyn Williams), PENALTY TAMU holding (R. Seals-Jones) 10 yards to the TAMU14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 20
OWN 14
+10
99.5%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Trayveon Williams for 10 yds to the TexAM 24Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+34
99.5%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Jeremy Tabuyo for 34 yds to the PraVw 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+6
99.6%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Jeremy Tabuyo for 6 yds to the PraVw 33Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+17
99.5%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 17 yds to the PraVw 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.6%
Trevor Knight pass intercepted, touchback. Raleigh Johnson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 1:571% → 1%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+4
99.4%
Jalen Morton run for 4 yds to the PraVw 19 Jalen Morton fumbled, forced by Shaan Washington,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 14TD8 plays · 67 yds · 1:39100% → 100%
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
99.5%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Speedy Noil, broken up by Arthur LockettSimilar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+4
99.5%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Speedy Noil for 4 yds to the PraVw 34Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+34
99.8%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for 34 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Trey Green pass incomplete to Jovante Ham, broken up by Myles GarrettSimilar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Trey Green pass incomplete to Joshua Simmons, broken up by Shaan WashingtonSimilar
Q2 1:03
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Owen Hoolihan punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the TexAM 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 16TD1 play · 64 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
99.9%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for 64 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 17END OF HALF3 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
TA&MDrive 18TD15 plays · 78 yds · 3:49100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
99.9%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Josh Reynolds, PENALTY PVAM roughing passer (James Harper) 15 yards to the TAMU37, 1ST DOWN TAMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Speedy Noil, broken up by Arthur LockettSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+9
99.9%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Speedy Noil for 9 yds to the PraVw 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+10
99.9%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Boone Niederhofer for 10 yds to the PraVw 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+2
99.9%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for 2 yds to the PraVw 9Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+5
99.9%
PRAIRIE VIEW Penalty, offside defense (James Harper) to the PraVw 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 11:11
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+23
99.9%
Owen Hoolihan punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Nick Harvey at the TEXASAM 47 PRAIRIE VIEW Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the PraVw 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 20FG9 plays · 39 yds · 2:17100% → 100%
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Jeremy Tabuyo, broken up by Arthur LockettSimilar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Damion Ratley, broken up by Treveon BillingsSimilar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+22
99.9%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Jamal Jeffery for 22 yds to the PraVw 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+5
99.9%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Jamal Jeffery for 5 yds to the PraVw 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 21DOWNS5 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 8:26
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Trey Green pass incomplete to Cameron Smith, broken up by Shaan WashingtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 22FG8 plays · 4 yds · 2:31100% → 100%
PVDrive 23PUNT TD10 plays · 12 yds · 4:570% → 0%
Q3 4:27
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-10
99.9%
Trey Green sacked by Qualen Cunningham for a loss of 10 yards to the PraVw 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:30
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-4
100.0%
Trey Green run for a loss of 4 yards to the PraVw 45 Trey Green fumbled, recovered by PraVw Sta'fon McCraySimilar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 15
OWN 45
+7
100.0%
Trey Green pass complete to Cameron Smith for 7 yds to the TexAM 48Similar
Q4 14:30
4TH & 8
OPP 48
+24
100.0%
Owen Hoolihan punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Nick Harvey at the TexAM 9 PRAIRIE VIEW Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the TexAM 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 15 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
100.0%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Damion Ratley, broken up by Arthur LockettSimilar
Q4 12:18
3RD & 8
OPP 47
-14
100.0%
Jake Hubenak sacked by Willie Butler for a loss of 14 yards to the TexAM 39Similar
Q4 12:18
4TH & 22
OWN 39
+4
99.9%
Shane Tripucka punt for 48 yds , Anthony Wiltz returns for 4 yds to the PraVw 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 26PUNT7 plays · 24 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:10
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+10
100.0%
Trey Green pass complete to Raymond Jackson for 10 yds to the PraVw 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
100.0%
Trey Green pass complete to Quinton Bell for no gain to the PVAM34 (Charles Oliver), PENALTY TAMU offside defense (James Lockhart) 5 yards to the PVAM39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:10
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
100.0%
Owen Hoolihan punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Nick Harvey at the TexAM 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 27TD8 plays · 85 yds · 4:26100% → 100%
Q4 6:58
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+16
100.0%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Kemah Siverand for 16 yds to the TexAM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
100.0%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Edward Pope, PENALTY PVAM pass interference (Ju. Parker) 15 yards to the PVAM36, 1ST DOWN TAMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
100.0%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Edward Pope for 6 yds to the PraVw 30Similar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
100.0%
Kwame Etwi run for 15 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK) PRAIRIE VIEW Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 28SF3 plays · -14 yds · 0:520% → 0%
TA&MDrive 29FUMBLE4 plays · 31 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:40
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+1
100.0%
Conner McQueen pass complete to Frank Iheanacho for 1 yd to the PraVw 41Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+13
100.0%
Kendall Bussey run for 13 yds to the PraVw 22 Kendall Bussey fumbled, forced by Raleigh Johnson, recovered by PraVw Reginald StubblefieldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 30END OF GAME1 play · 13 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
100.0%
Jalen Morton pass complete to Cameron Smith for 13 yds to the PraVw 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:03
Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for 34 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)
+0.3
TD · Q1 0:00
Trevor Knight run for 32 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)
+0.2
TD · Q2 12:12
Trevor Knight pass complete to Speedy Noil for 8 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)
+0.2