Try the model
VT

Virginia Tech 24 at Tennessee 45

TENN
2016 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2016 · Bristol Motor Speedway
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadVT aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreVT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:52 · Mitchell Ludwig punt for 13 yds , TEAM returns for no gain to the VTech 23 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Tenn Cortez McDowell
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 66Pregame prior+16.4Home team on offense−0.5Score differential−1.9Garbage-time factor+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:48: Travon McMillian run for 69 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +5.6 pts (now 36%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:43: Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 5 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +8.5 pts (now 69%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q2 9:42: Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 38 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +7.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:39: Joshua Dobbs run for 5 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +7.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:04: Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 23 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +8.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 8 of 8VT made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 9:30VT 4th & 1 at TENN 30, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.5%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    27.3%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:43TENN 4th & 12 at TENN 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:35TENN 4th & 2 at TENN 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:25TENN 4th & 5 at TENN 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:21VT 4th & 2 at TENN 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:52VT 4th & 11 at VT 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−1.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:30TENN 4th & 15 at VT 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−1.5
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.1%
    81% to make
    Punt
    62.3%−4.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:00VT 4th & 6 at VT 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:38TENN 4th & 8 at TENN 39, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:57TENN 4th & 10 at VT 29, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    75.8%−5.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:26VT 4th & 10 at VT 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:41VT 4th & 3 at TENN 9, down 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.8%−0.6
    89% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−6.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:12TENN 4th & 13 at TENN 37, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−1.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:14VT 4th & 2 at VT 26, down 14
    Close callPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:34TENN 4th & 10 at TENN 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−1.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 6 of 6VT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 4:32VT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:48VT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:43TENN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:42TENN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:39TENN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:04TENN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:45TENN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:32TENN Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:28VT Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VTDrive 1MISSED FG
16 plays · 59 yds · 5:2525% → 26%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
75.5%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 5 yds to the VTech 16Similar
Q1 14:31
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+4
75.4%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the VTech 20Similar
Q1 13:51
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+7
75.3%
Jerod Evans run for 7 yds to the VTech 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
75.2%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 12 yds to the VTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
75.0%
Sam Rogers run for 4 yds to the VTech 43Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
74.8%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+7
74.8%
Sam Rogers run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
50
0
74.6%
Jerod Evans run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 10
50
+6
74.5%
Sam Rogers run for 6 yds to the Tenn 44Similar
Q1 10:49
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+5
74.3%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Tenn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
74.2%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Bucky Hodges VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Jonathan McLaughlin) declinedSimilar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-1
74.1%
C.J. Carroll run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 40Similar
Q1 9:59
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+10
74.3%
Jerod Evans run for 10 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q1 9:30
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+47
74.2%
Joey Slye 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:4775% → 74%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
74.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 2 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+4
74.4%
Joshua Dobbs run for 4 yds to the Tenn 36Similar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 4
OWN 36
-8
74.3%
Joshua Dobbs sacked by Ken Ekanem for a loss of 8 yards to the Tenn 28Similar
Q1 7:43
4TH & 12
OWN 28
0
73.6%
Trevor Daniel punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Greg Stroman at the VTech 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3TD
8 plays · 62 yds · 3:1127% → 31%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+30
73.5%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Sam Rogers for 30 yds to the Tenn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
72.9%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Bucky Hodges for a loss of 5 yards to the Tenn 37Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 15
OPP 37
+7
73.2%
Bucky Hodges run for 7 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q1 6:29
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+13
72.9%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 13 yds to the Tenn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
72.3%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the Tenn 13Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+3
72.1%
Travon McMillian run for 3 yds to the Tenn 10Similar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+3
72.3%
Jerod Evans run for 3 yds to the Tenn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
68.7%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Sam Rogers for 7 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5770% → 69%
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
69.9%
Tyler Byrd run for 5 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
69.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q1 3:47
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
69.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh MaloneSimilar
Q1 3:35
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
69.3%
Trevor Daniel punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Greg Stroman at the VTech 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5TD
2 plays · 77 yds · 0:4731% → 36%
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
69.3%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 8 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+69
63.7%
Travon McMillian run for 69 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:2364% → 64%
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
64.2%
Jalen Hurd run for 17 yds to the Tenn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
65.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Tenn 43Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+1
64.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Tenn 44Similar
Q1 1:46
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+3
64.2%
Joshua Dobbs run for 3 yds to the Tenn 47 TENNESSEE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Coleman Thomas) declinedSimilar
Q1 1:25
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
64.0%
Trevor Daniel punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 7FUMBLE
5 plays · -15 yds · 1:3638% → 39%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
62.3%
Jerod Evans run for no gain to the VTech 20Similar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+11
61.8%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 11 yds to the VTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
61.1%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Chris CunninghamSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-15
60.7%
McMillian, Travon rush for 10 yards to the VATECH41, PENALTY VATECH personal foul 15 yards to the VATECH16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 25
OWN 16
0
60.6%
Jerod Evans run for no gain to the VTech 5 Jerod Evans fumbled, forced by TEAM, recovered by Tenn Micah AbernathySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8TD
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 14:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
69.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 5 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:2234% → 36%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
66.4%
Travon McMillian run for 8 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-4
65.6%
Jerod Evans sacked by Darrin Kirkland Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 29Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
65.8%
Evans, Jerod pass incomplete to Hodges, Bucky, PENALTY TENNESSEE pass interference (Martin, Justin) 15 yards to the VATECH44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VATECH.Similar
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
64.5%
Travon McMillian run for 5 yds to the VTech 49Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+4
64.0%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the Tenn 47Similar
Q2 12:09
3RD & 1
OPP 47
-1
63.5%
Travon McMillian run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 48Similar
Q2 11:21
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
63.8%
Mitchell Ludwig punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Cameron Sutton at the Tenn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10TD
4 plays · 90 yds · 1:3965% → 74%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
64.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 6 yds to the Tenn 16Similar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+40
64.4%
Joshua Dobbs run for 40 yds to the VTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
66.2%
Jalen Hurd run for 6 yds to the VTech 38Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+38
73.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 38 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 11FUMBLE
7 plays · -1 yds · 1:5030% → 30%
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
69.9%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 7 yds to the VTech 20Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 3
OWN 20
-5
69.5%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the VTech 15Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 8
OWN 15
0
69.7%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q2 8:31
3RD & 8
OWN 15
-6
70.2%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Travon McMillian for 9 yds to the VTech 24 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (Wyatt Teller) to the VTech 9Similar
Q2 8:04
3RD & 14
OWN 9
+3
69.9%
Travon McMillian run for 3 yds to the VTech 12Similar
Q2 7:52
4TH & 11
OWN 12
0
69.8%
Mitchell Ludwig punt for 13 yds , TEAM returns for no gain to the VTech 23 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Tenn Cortez McDowellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12FG
8 plays · 7 yds · 2:2274% → 72%
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
73.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the VTech 22Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
73.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Jason CroomSimilar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+11
72.8%
Dobbs, Joshua pass incomplete, PENALTY VATECH roughing passer (Motuapuaka, Andrew) 11 yards to the VATECH11, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TENNESSEE.Similar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
73.6%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (Brett Kendrick) to the VTech 16Similar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 15
OPP 16
+4
73.4%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the VTech 12Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 11
OPP 12
-4
73.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 16Similar
Q2 5:41
3RD & 15
OPP 16
0
71.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Tyler ByrdSimilar
Q2 5:30
4TH & 15
OPP 16
+34
72.3%
Aaron Medley 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:3028% → 27%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.3%
McMillian, Travon rush for 19 yards to the VATECH44, PENALTY TENNESSEE personal foul off-setting, PENALTY VATECH Personal Foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
72.2%
Bucky Hodges run for 5 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
71.7%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-1
72.3%
Jerod Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 29Similar
Q2 4:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+14
73.4%
Mitchell Ludwig punt for 43 yds , Cameron Sutton returns for 14 yds to the Tenn 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 3:2174% → 83%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
74.0%
Alvin Kamara run for 9 yds to the VTech 49Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+8
74.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 8 yds to the VTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
74.7%
Joshua Dobbs run for 4 yds to the VTech 37Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+18
74.5%
Jalen Hurd run for 18 yds to the VTech 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
75.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 5 yds to the VTech 14Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+5
75.2%
Alvin Kamara run for 5 yds to the VTech 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
75.2%
Jalen Hurd run for 6 yds to the VTech 3Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
75.2%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 5Similar
Q2 0:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
82.9%
Joshua Dobbs run for 5 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
80.9%
Travon McMillian run for 6 yds to the VTech 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 3:2281% → 81%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
80.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Tenn 26Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
80.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 5 yds to the Tenn 31Similar
Q3 14:01
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
80.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 6 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
81.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 5 yds to the Tenn 42Similar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+1
82.9%
Joshua Dobbs run for 1 yd to the Tenn 43Similar
Q3 12:11
3RD & 4
OWN 43
-4
82.1%
Joshua Dobbs run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tenn 39 Joshua Dobbs fumbled, recovered by TennSimilar
Q3 11:38
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
81.0%
Trevor Daniel punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Greg Stroman at the VTech 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17FUMBLE
1 play · 13 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+13
81.4%
Travon McMillian run for 13 yds to the VTech 29 Travon McMillian fumbled, recovered by Tenn Corey VereenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 18MISSED FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3284% → 82%
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
83.7%
Joshua Dobbs sacked by Nigel Williams and Ken Ekanem for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 31Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+2
83.7%
Joshua Dobbs run for 2 yds to the VTech 29Similar
Q3 10:11
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
83.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Jauan JenningsSimilar
Q3 9:57
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+47
81.9%
Aaron Medley 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3118% → 16%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-8
81.7%
Jerod Evans sacked by Kendal Vickers for a loss of 8 yards to the VTech 22Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 18
OWN 22
+11
82.5%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 11 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q3 9:01
3RD & 7
OWN 33
-3
82.5%
Jerod Evans sacked by Corey Vereen for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 30Similar
Q3 8:26
4TH & 10
OWN 30
+22
83.7%
Mitchell Ludwig punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Cameron Sutton at the TENNESSEE 33 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Steven Peoples) to the Tenn 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 20TD
5 plays · 52 yds · 1:2284% → 93%
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
84.0%
Joshua Dobbs run for 3 yds to the VTech 49Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+31
84.1%
Joshua Dobbs run for 31 yds to the VTech 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
84.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh SmithSimilar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-5
84.6%
Alvin Kamara run for a loss of 5 yards to the VTech 23Similar
Q3 7:04
3RD & 15
OPP 23
+23
93.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 23 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 21FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:169% → 12%
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
91.1%
Sam Rogers run for 3 yds to the Tenn 48Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+15
91.5%
Evans, Jerod pass incomplete to Hodges, Bucky, PENALTY TENNESSEE pass interference (Martin, Justin) 15 yards to the TENNESSEE33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VATECH.Similar
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
90.9%
Shai McKenzie run for 7 yds to the Tenn 26Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+10
90.7%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 10 yds to the Tenn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
90.8%
Bucky Hodges run for 5 yds to the Tenn 11Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 5
OPP 11
0
91.6%
Shai McKenzie run for no gain to the Tenn 11Similar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+2
92.4%
Jerod Evans run for 2 yds to the Tenn 9Similar
Q3 3:41
4TH & 3
OPP 9
+26
88.2%
Joey Slye 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 1:2991% → 92%
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
91.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
90.6%
Dobbs, Joshua pass incomplete to Smith, Josh, PENALTY VATECH roughing passer 15 yards to the TENNESSEE40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TENNESSEE.Similar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
91.6%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 35Similar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+2
91.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Tenn 37Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 13
OWN 37
0
91.3%
Joshua Dobbs run for no gain to the Tenn 37 TENNESSEE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jason Croom) declinedSimilar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 13
OWN 37
0
92.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh SmithSimilar
Q3 2:12
4TH & 13
OWN 37
0
92.0%
Trevor Daniel punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VTech 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5810% → 9%
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
90.0%
Travon McMillian run for 3 yds to the VTech 21Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+5
90.3%
Bucky Hodges run for 5 yds to the VTech 26Similar
Q3 1:33
3RD & 2
OWN 26
0
89.6%
Jerod Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:14
4TH & 2
OWN 26
0
90.7%
Mitchell Ludwig punt for 41 yds, downed at the Tenn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 24INT
4 plays · 17 yds · 1:2493% → 94%
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
93.4%
Jalen Hurd run for 13 yds to the Tenn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
93.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Tenn 47Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+3
94.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Smith for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 6
50
+13
93.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass intercepted Mook Reynolds return for 3 yds to the VTech 47 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the VTech 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 25FUMBLE
11 plays · 45 yds · 4:069% → 9%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-15
90.9%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the VTech 19Similar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
91.5%
Jerod Evans run for 2 yds to the VTech 21Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 8
OWN 21
0
91.6%
Jerod Evans run for no gain to the VTech 21Similar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+10
91.9%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 10 yds to the VTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
91.3%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-2
91.7%
Travon McMillian run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 29Similar
Q4 12:07
3RD & 12
OWN 29
+16
92.2%
Jerod Evans run for 16 yds to the VTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
91.1%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Sam Rogers for 10 yds to the Tenn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
91.0%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 14 yds to the Tenn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
90.4%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+10
90.6%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 10 yds Cam Phillips fumbled, forced by Kendal Vickers, recovered by Tenn Micah Abernathy at the Tenn 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 26FUMBLE
4 plays · 0 yds · 2:1095% → 95%
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
94.7%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the Tenn 25Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 6
OWN 25
-5
95.2%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 5 yards to the Tenn 20Similar
Q4 9:21
3RD & 11
OWN 20
+1
95.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 1 yd to the Tenn 21Similar
Q4 8:34
4TH & 10
OWN 21
0
95.0%
Trevor Daniel punt for 34 yds , TEAM returns for no gain to the VTech 43 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Tenn Micah AbernathySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 27TD
4 plays · 43 yds · 1:4996% → 99%
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
95.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jason Croom for 9 yds to the VTech 34Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+2
96.0%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the VTech 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
96.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 5 yds to the VTech 27Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+27
99.2%
Joshua Dobbs run for 27 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 28FUMBLE
2 plays · -21 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-21
99.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 21 yards to the VTech 4 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Tenn Shy TuttleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 29TD
1 play · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
John Kelly run for 4 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 30TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 3:040% → 1%
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
99.9%
Travon McMillian run for 8 yds to the VTech 29Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+5
99.9%
Shai McKenzie run for 5 yds to the VTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
99.9%
Jerod Evans run for 1 yd to the VTech 35Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+12
99.9%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 12 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
99.9%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 14 yds to the Tenn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
99.9%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 9 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+17
99.9%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Shai McKenzie for 17 yds to the Tenn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
99.9%
Jerod Evans run for 4 yds to the Tenn 9Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+7
99.9%
Shai McKenzie run for 7 yds to the Tenn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.2%
Shai McKenzie run for 2 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 31END OF GAME
6 plays · 16 yds · 3:2899% → 100%
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.4%
Carlin Fils-Aime run for 6 yds to the Tenn 31Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
99.4%
Carlin Fils-Aime run for 6 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
99.5%
Carlin Fils-Aime run for 5 yds to the Tenn 42Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+2
99.6%
Carlin Fils-Aime run for 2 yds to the Tenn 44Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 44
-3
99.6%
Taeler Dowdy run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:04
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 23 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)
+8.7
TD · Q2 14:43
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 5 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)
+8.5
TD · Q2 0:39
Joshua Dobbs run for 5 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)
+7.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com