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South Carolina 14 at Mississippi State 27

MSST
2016 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2016 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadSC aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:11 · Sean Kelly punt for 47 yds , Fred Ross returns for 16 yds to the SCaro 36 SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (D.J. Smith) to the SCaro 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 70Home team on offense+9.6Score differential+3.0Pregame prior+11.5Garbage-time factor+0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.2Time remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:15: Fred Ross pass complete to Donald Gray for 17 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +6.4 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:21: Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 3 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +10.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Elliott Fry kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — SC win probability +3.1 pts (now 8%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 9:30: Westin Graves 28 yd FG GOOD — MSST win probability +3.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:37: Brandon McIlwain pass complete to K.C. Crosby for 4 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK) — SC win probability +4.2 pts (now 5%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 5 of 7SC made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00SC 4th & 16 at SC 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:00SC 4th & 14 at SC 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:49MSST 4th & 3 at SC 3, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.4%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    75.2%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    74.2%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:15SC 4th & 8 at MSST 37, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.7%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    24.6%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:27MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 45, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:11SC 4th & 8 at SC 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:30SC 4th & 13 at SC 26, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−1.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 46, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    93.3%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:28SC 4th & 25 at SC 41, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−1.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:08MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 45, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:35SC 4th & 6 at SC 25, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:32MSST 4th & 7 at MSST 32, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:27SC 4th & 1 at MSST 18, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    2.8%−0.8
    79% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−3.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:30MSST 4th & 2 at SC 11, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.2%−0.4
    87% to make
    Punt
    93.8%−2.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:24SC 4th & 10 at SC 16, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:54MSST 4th & 3 at MSST 42, up 20
    Close callPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:26SC 4th & 10 at MSST 45, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%
    25% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:37SC 4th & 1 at MSST 4, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.7
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%
    93% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SC made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 11:00MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:15MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:21MSST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:05SC Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:37SC Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SCDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.1%
Perry Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
69.1%
A.J. Turner run for 3 yds to the SCaro 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-9
69.1%
Perry Orth sacked by Johnathan Calvin for a loss of 9 yards to the SCaro 19Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+10
69.1%
Sean Kelly punt for 46 yds , Fred Ross returns for 10 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 2:2769% → 70%
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+18
69.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 18 yds to the SCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
69.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 9 yds to the SCaro 28Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+7
69.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the SCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
69.1%
Brandon Holloway run for no gain to the SCaro 21Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+10
69.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald Gray, PENALTY SC holding (Chris Lammons) 10 yards to the SC11, 1ST DOWN MS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
69.1%
Keith Mixon run for 2 yds to the SCaro 9Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+3
69.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the SCaro 6Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+6
70.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 6 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
69.7%
A.J. Turner run for 4 yds to the SCaro 29Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
69.6%
Perry Orth pass complete to Jacob August for 10 yds to the SCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
69.5%
A.J. Turner run for 4 yds to the SCaro 43Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
69.4%
Perry Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 6
OWN 43
-8
69.6%
Perry Orth sacked by A.J. Jefferson for a loss of 8 yards to the SCaro 35Similar
Q1 11:00
4TH & 14
OWN 35
+9
70.0%
Sean Kelly punt for 52 yds , Fred Ross returns for 9 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4DOWNS
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
70.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 21Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+74
70.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 74 yds to the SCaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
70.8%
Brandon Holloway run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 6Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
70.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the SCaro 1Similar
Q1 8:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
70.6%
Brandon Holloway run for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 3Similar
Q1 8:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
70.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred Ross, broken up by Dante SawyerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 5MISSED FG
13 plays · 60 yds · 6:2229% → 29%
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
70.6%
Perry Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+10
70.7%
A.J. Turner run for 10 yds to the SCaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-3
70.6%
A.J. Turner run for a loss of 3 yards to the SCaro 10Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 13
OWN 10
+4
70.7%
Perry Orth pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 4 yds to the SCaro 14Similar
Q1 6:37
3RD & 9
OWN 14
+21
70.9%
Perry Orth pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 21 yds to the SCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
70.4%
Perry Orth pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
50
+5
69.8%
A.J. Turner run for 5 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 5
OPP 45
-1
69.8%
A.J. Turner run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 46Similar
Q1 6:37
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+7
69.9%
Perry Orth pass complete to K.C. Crosby for 7 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
69.8%
A.J. Turner run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 40Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+3
69.8%
A.J. Turner run for 3 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q1 6:37
3RD & 8
OPP 37
0
69.9%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Hayden HurstSimilar
Q1 0:15
4TH & 8
OPP 37
+55
71.0%
Elliott Fry 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6TD
10 plays · 63 yds · 3:0072% → 79%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
72.0%
Ashton Shumpert run for 11 yds to the SCaro 47 Ashton Shumpert fumbled, forced by Jonathan Walton, recovered by MisSt Fred Ross for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
72.6%
Aeris Williams rush for 7 yards to the SC40 (T. Stallworth;D.J. Wonnum), PENALTY MS holding (Jamaal Clayborn) 10 yards to the MS43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 43
+5
72.0%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 48
0
71.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 48
+15
71.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 15 yds to the SCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-3
72.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for a loss of 3 yards to the SCaro 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 40
+5
72.1%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the SCaro 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+11
72.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 11 yds to the SCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
72.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 7 yds to the SCaro 17Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+17
79.2%
Fred Ross pass complete to Donald Gray for 17 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 7INT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:2723% → 22%
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
76.8%
A.J. Turner run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 19Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+10
77.1%
Perry Orth pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 10 yds to the SCaro 29Similar
Q2 12:07
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+5
76.6%
A.J. Turner run for 5 yds to the SCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
78.5%
Perry Orth pass intercepted Jamal Peters return for no gain to the MisSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
80.2%
Brandon Holloway run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 27Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+7
80.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 7 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q2 10:27
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+7
80.0%
Brandon Holloway run for 22 yds to the MISSSTATE 44 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, personal foul (Justin Johnson) to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
80.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the MisSt 42Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
80.7%
Aeris Williams run for no gain to the MisSt 42Similar
Q2 10:27
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+8
80.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:27
4TH & 1
50
-5
80.1%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, delay of game (Nick Fitzgerald) to the MisSt 45Similar
Q2 10:27
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
79.8%
Logan Cooke punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Rashad Fenton at the SCaro 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 9FUMBLE
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
80.5%
Perry Orth pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 9 yds to the SCaro 20Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 1
OWN 20
-4
80.2%
A.J. Turner run for a loss of 4 yards to the SCaro 14 A.J. Turner fumbled, forced by Jeffery Simmons, recovered by MisSt Johnathan CalvinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+16
82.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted T.J. Holloman return for 16 yds to the SCaro 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
80.7%
Rod Talley run for 2 yds to the SCaro 20Similar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 8
OWN 20
0
80.7%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Deebo Samuel, broken up by Traver JungSimilar
Q2 6:11
3RD & 8
OWN 20
0
80.9%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Bryan EdwardsSimilar
Q2 6:11
4TH & 8
OWN 20
+16
81.2%
Sean Kelly punt for 47 yds , Fred Ross returns for 16 yds to the SCaro 36 SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (D.J. Smith) to the SCaro 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12TD
5 plays · 36 yds · 1:4083% → 93%
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
82.6%
Brandon Holloway run for 9 yds to the SCaro 27Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+10
82.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 10 yds to the SCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
82.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Gabe Myles for 5 yds to the SCaro 12Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+9
82.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Gabe Myles for 9 yds to the SCaro 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
93.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 3 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 1:459% → 8%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
90.7%
Perry Orth pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 4 yds to the SCaro 33Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 6
OWN 33
-7
90.5%
Perry Orth pass complete to K.C. Crosby for 3 yds to the SCaro 36 SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (Jacob August) to the SCaro 26Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 13
OWN 26
0
91.0%
Perry Orth run for no gain to the SCaro 26Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 13
OWN 26
0
92.0%
Perry Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:30
4TH & 13
OWN 26
+2
92.0%
Sean Kelly punt for 44 yds , Fred Ross returns for 2 yds to the MisSt 28 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, illegal block (Ashton Shumpert) to the MisSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14FG
11 plays · 68 yds · 1:0794% → 95%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
93.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 14 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
93.9%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 31Similar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 15
OWN 31
0
94.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Gabe MylesSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+17
94.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 17 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+22
94.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 22 yds to the SCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
94.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the SCaro 29Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+4
94.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the SCaro 25Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+15
94.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Gabe Myles (Rashad Fenton), PENALTY SC pass interference (Rashad Fenton) 15 yards to the SC10, 1ST DOWN MS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
95.1%
Westin Graves 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15DOWNS
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
93.5%
Brandon Holloway run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+15
93.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted by T.J. Holloman at the MS31, T.J. Holloman return to the MS31, PENALTY SC personal foul (Kelsey Griffin) 15 yards to the MS37, 1ST DOWN MS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
93.7%
Brandon Holloway run for 3 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+3
93.8%
Brandon Holloway run for 3 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+3
93.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 46
-2
93.4%
Logan Cooke run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -15 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-14
93.4%
Brandon McIlwain sacked by Richie Brown for a loss of 14 yards to the SCaro 42Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 24
OWN 42
-1
93.8%
Brandon McIlwain run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 41Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 25
OWN 41
0
93.9%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Hayden HurstSimilar
Q3 12:28
4TH & 25
OWN 41
0
94.0%
Sean Kelly punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 29 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+25
94.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 25 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
95.2%
Brandon Holloway run for no gain to the MisSt 41Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
95.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 4 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
95.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Justin Johnson, broken up by Jordan DiggsSimilar
Q3 11:08
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
94.8%
Logan Cooke punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Rashad Fenton at the SCaro 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
95.3%
A.J. Turner run for 4 yds to the SCaro 14Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+2
95.3%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 2 yds to the SCaro 16Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+5
95.4%
A.J. Turner run for 5 yds to the SCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
95.3%
A.J. Turner run for 1 yd to the SCaro 22Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+3
95.3%
Brandon McIlwain run for 3 yds to the SCaro 25Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
95.3%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Jacob August, broken up by Gerri GreenSimilar
Q3 9:35
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
95.4%
Sean Kelly punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
96.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jordan ThomasSimilar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+3
96.2%
Ashton Shumpert run for 3 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q3 6:32
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
96.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q3 6:32
4TH & 7
OWN 32
0
95.9%
Logan Cooke punt for 68 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 20TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 5:224% → 6%
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+22
96.4%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 22 yds to the SCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
96.3%
Brandon McIlwain run for 9 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 1
OPP 49
0
96.1%
A.J. Turner run for no gain to the MisSt 49Similar
Q3 5:27
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+11
96.2%
Brandon McIlwain run for 11 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
96.2%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Terry Googer for 11 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
95.7%
Brandon McIlwain run for 2 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 8
OPP 25
0
95.7%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Jacob AugustSimilar
Q3 5:27
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+7
96.2%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 7 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
Q3 5:27
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+2
96.1%
Brandon McIlwain run for 2 yds to the MisSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
95.7%
Brandon McIlwain run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 18Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 12
OPP 18
0
95.9%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Jacob AugustSimilar
Q3 0:05
3RD & 12
OPP 18
+18
93.6%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to A.J. Turner for 18 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21FG
14 plays · 62 yds · 5:3095% → 99%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
94.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 9 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+6
94.9%
Brandon Holloway run for 6 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
95.0%
Brandon Holloway run for 7 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+3
95.0%
Ashton Shumpert run for 3 yds to the SCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
95.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald Gray, broken up by Rashad FentonSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
95.0%
Brandon Holloway run for 2 yds to the SCaro 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+8
95.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds to the SCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
95.1%
Brandon Holloway run for 2 yds to the SCaro 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+17
95.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jamal Couch for 17 yds to the SCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
95.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jamal CouchSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+8
95.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 8 yds to the SCaro 11Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 11
0
94.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the SCaro 11Similar
Q4 9:30
4TH & 2
OPP 11
+28
98.7%
Westin Graves 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
98.8%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Bryan EdwardsSimilar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
98.9%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Bryan EdwardsSimilar
Q4 9:24
3RD & 10
OWN 16
0
98.9%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Terry GoogerSimilar
Q4 9:24
4TH & 10
OWN 16
0
98.9%
Sean Kelly punt for 66 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
98.8%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+13
98.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 13 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
98.8%
Aeris Williams run for 7 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
98.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Gabe Myles MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 8:54
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
98.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Brandon Holloway for no gain to the MisSt 42Similar
Q4 8:54
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
98.8%
Logan Cooke punt for 41 yds, downed at the SCaro 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 24TD
15 plays · 83 yds · 3:491% → 5%
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+14
99.1%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 14 yds to the SCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
99.1%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Randrecous Davis for 13 yds to the SCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
99.1%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to A.J. Turner for 7 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+4
99.0%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 4 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.0%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Bryan EdwardsSimilar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
99.1%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Hayden Hurst, broken up by Brandon BryantSimilar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
99.1%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Hayden HurstSimilar
Q4 6:26
4TH & 10
OPP 45
+24
99.1%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 24 yds to the MisSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
98.8%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Zack Bailey) to the MisSt 26Similar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 15
OPP 26
-2
98.9%
Brandon McIlwain sacked by Nick James and Traver Jung for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 28 SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 17
OPP 28
+15
98.9%
B. McIlwain pass incomplete to A.J. Turner, PENALTY MS pass interference (Gerri Green) 15 yards to the MS13, 1ST DOWN SC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
98.8%
Brandon McIlwain run for 8 yds to the MisSt 5Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 2
OPP 5
0
98.8%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to K.C. CrosbySimilar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+1
98.9%
Brandon McIlwain run for 1 yd to the MisSt 4Similar
Q4 2:37
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+4
94.7%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to K.C. Crosby for 4 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 25END OF GAME
9 plays · 39 yds · 0:1297% → 98%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
97.3%
Brandon Holloway run for 1 yd to the SCaro 47Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+3
97.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the SCaro 44Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+31
98.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Gabe Myles for 31 yds to the SCaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
98.1%
Ashton Shumpert run for 3 yds to the SCaro 10Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+3
98.1%
Ashton Shumpert run for 3 yds to the SCaro 7Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 4
OPP 7
-2
98.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:21
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 3 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)
+10.2
TD · Q2 12:15
Fred Ross pass complete to Donald Gray for 17 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)
+6.4
TD · Q4 2:37
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to K.C. Crosby for 4 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)
-4.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com