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JXST

Jacksonville State 13 at LSU 34

LSU
2016 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2016 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadJXST aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreJXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:23 · Dean Kelly punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 93Pregame prior+30.9Home team on offense+15.7Score differential+5.3Garbage-time factor+3.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:14: Derrius Guice 4 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye Kick) — LSU win probability +1.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:55: Eli Jenkins pass complete to Krenwick Sanders for 76 yds for a TD, (Cade Stinnett KICK) — JXST win probability +2.7 pts (now 8%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q2 1:07: Bry'Kiethon Mouton 2 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye Kick) — LSU win probability +2.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:20: Tre'Davious White 60 Yd Punt Return (Colby Delahoussaye Kick) — LSU win probability +2.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:00: Danny Etling 2 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye Kick) — LSU win probability +1.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4JXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 10:27JXST 4th & 17 at JXST 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:40LSU 4th & 7 at LSU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:22JXST 4th & 8 at LSU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    5.6%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:51LSU 4th & 6 at LSU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:56JXST 4th & 4 at LSU 13, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.6%−<0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    6.8%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:42JXST 4th & 18 at LSU 36, down 3
    Close callPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    8.8%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:20JXST 4th & 3 at JXST 14, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:23JXST 4th & 8 at JXST 21, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:48LSU 4th & 15 at LSU 38, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:33JXST 4th & 1 at LSU 39, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    2.4%−1.6
    36% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−1.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:47JXST 4th & 1 at JXST 23, down 24
    Close callPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:41JXST 4th & 12 at LSU 34, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%
    47% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:58LSU 4th & 2 at LSU 42, up 24
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:27JXST 4th & 14 at LSU 16, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.6%
    81% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5JXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 12:21LSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:14LSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:55JXST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:07LSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:20LSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:00LSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
JXSTDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 18 yds · 4:032% → 3%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
97.8%
Eli Jenkins pass complete to Roc Thomas for 8 yds to the JaxSt 22Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+1
97.7%
Roc Thomas run for 1 yd to the JaxSt 23Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+3
97.7%
Roc Thomas run for 3 yds to the JaxSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
97.6%
Eli Jenkins pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 7 yds to the JaxSt 33Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+6
97.5%
Roc Thomas run for 6 yds to the JaxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
97.4%
JACKSONVILLE ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the JaxSt 29Similar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 20
OWN 29
+3
97.4%
Eli Jenkins run for 3 yds to the JaxSt 32Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 17
OWN 32
0
97.3%
Eli Jenkins pass incomplete to Krenwick SandersSimilar
Q1 10:39
3RD & 17
OWN 32
0
97.3%
Eli Jenkins pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q1 10:27
4TH & 17
OWN 32
-2
97.3%
Dean Kelly punt for 36 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3497% → 97%
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
97.2%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Darrel Williams for 8 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 2
OWN 38
0
97.2%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to D.J. CharkSimilar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 2
OWN 38
-5
97.2%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 33Similar
Q1 9:48
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
97.1%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Malachi DupreSimilar
Q1 9:40
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
97.1%
Josh Growden punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Lawon DeBardelaben at the JaxSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 4:083% → 4%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
97.1%
Eli Jenkins run for 2 yds to the JaxSt 25Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
97.0%
Eli Jenkins pass incomplete to Josh ClemonsSimilar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+15
97.0%
Eli Jenkins run for 15 yds to the JaxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
96.8%
Roc Thomas run for 3 yds to the JaxSt 43Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+3
96.7%
Eli Jenkins pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 3 yds to the JaxSt 46Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+6
96.5%
Eli Jenkins run for 6 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
96.4%
Josh Clemons run for 2 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
96.2%
Eli Jenkins pass incomplete to Roc ThomasSimilar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 8
OPP 46
0
96.2%
Eli Jenkins pass incomplete to Krenwick SandersSimilar
Q1 5:22
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
96.3%
Dean Kelly punt for 41 yds, downed at the LSU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0496% → 96%
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
96.2%
Derrius Guice run for 3 yds to the LSU 8Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 7
OWN 8
0
96.2%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 7
OWN 8
+1
96.1%
Derrius Guice run for 1 yd to the LSU 9Similar
Q1 3:51
4TH & 6
OWN 9
+5
95.9%
Josh Growden punt for 42 yds , Lawon DeBardelaben returns for 5 yds to the LSU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 5FG
9 plays · 33 yds · 3:504% → 6%
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
95.8%
Eli Jenkins pass incomplete to Shaq DavidsonSimilar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
95.8%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the LSU 41Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+6
95.7%
Eli Jenkins pass complete to Gavin Golsan for 6 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
95.5%
Eli Jenkins run for 4 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+12
95.2%
Eli Jenkins pass complete to Jamari Hester for 12 yds to the LSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
95.0%
Roc Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 20Similar
Q1 0:57
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+7
94.8%
Eli Jenkins pass complete to Jonathan Curry for 7 yds to the LSU 13Similar
Q1 0:06
3RD & 4
OPP 13
0
94.6%
Eli Jenkins run for no gain to the LSU 13Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+30
94.4%
Cade Stinnett 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 2:2395% → 95%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
94.6%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
94.3%
Darrel Williams run for 5 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q2 13:17
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+7
94.0%
Danny Etling pass complete to Darrel Williams for 7 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
94.3%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Malachi DupreSimilar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+12
94.1%
Danny Etling pass complete to Darrel Williams for 12 yds to the JaxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
95.0%
DeSean Smith 46 Yd pass from Danny Etling (Colby Delahoussaye PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 39 yds · 3:175% → 6%
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
94.6%
Roc Thomas run for 2 yds to the JaxSt 27Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
94.4%
Eli Jenkins pass complete to Demontez Terry for 10 yds to the JaxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+35
94.1%
Eli Jenkins run for 35 yds to the LSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-15
93.4%
JACKSONVILLE ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the LSU 43Similar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 25
OPP 43
0
93.7%
Eli Jenkins pass incomplete to Krenwick SandersSimilar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 25
OPP 43
+10
93.7%
Roc Thomas run for 10 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 15
OPP 33
-3
93.5%
Eli Jenkins sacked by Lewis Neal for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 36Similar
Q2 8:42
4TH & 18
OPP 36
0
93.7%
Eli Jenkins punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 4:1194% → 95%
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+32
93.5%
Derrius Guice run for 32 yds to the JaxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
94.0%
Derrius Guice run for a loss of 1 yard to the JaxSt 48Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+5
93.7%
Danny Etling pass complete to Travin Dural for 5 yds to the JaxSt 43Similar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+12
93.5%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 12 yds to the JaxSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
93.6%
Derrius Guice run for a loss of 2 yards to the JaxSt 33Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 12
OPP 33
+4
93.3%
Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the JaxSt 29Similar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+15
93.0%
Etling, Danny pass incomplete to Dupre, Malachi, PENALTY JAXVILLEST pass interference 15 yards to the JAXVILLEST14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
93.3%
Derrius Guice run for 10 yds to the JaxSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
95.1%
Derrius Guice 4 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 9TD
2 plays · 76 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+76
91.9%
Eli Jenkins pass complete to Krenwick Sanders for 76 yds for a TD, (Cade Stinnett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 2:4392% → 95%
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
92.3%
JACKSONVILLE ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the LSU 41Similar
Q2 3:19
1ST & 5
OWN 41
-2
92.5%
Derrius Guice run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 39Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+44
92.2%
Derrius Guice run for 44 yds to the JaxSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-3
92.4%
Darrel Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the JaxSt 20Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 13
OPP 20
+18
92.1%
Danny Etling pass complete to Derrius Guice for 18 yds to the JaxSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.0%
Bry'Kiethon Mouton 2 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 11PUNT TD
9 plays · 7 yds · 0:366% → 3%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
94.2%
Eli Jenkins run for 3 yds to the JaxSt 10Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 7
OWN 10
-5
94.2%
JACKSONVILLE ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the JaxSt 5Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 12
OWN 5
+5
94.3%
Roc Thomas run for 5 yds to the JaxSt 10Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 7
OWN 10
+4
94.3%
Eli Jenkins run for 4 yds to the JaxSt 14Similar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 3
OWN 14
+60
96.5%
Tre'Davious White 60 Yd Punt Return (Colby Delahoussaye Kick)Similar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 0
-15
96.7%
LSU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the JaxSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 7 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
96.3%
TEAM run for loss 2 yds to the JaxSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13INT
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:5897% → 97%
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
96.7%
Derrius Guice run for 10 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
96.8%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 41Similar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+3
96.7%
Derrius Guice run for 3 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+10
96.6%
Danny Etling run for 10 yds to the JaxSt 46Similar
Q3 12:22
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+6
96.8%
Bry'Kiethon Mouton run for 6 yds to the JaxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:223% → 3%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
96.7%
Eli Jenkins run for 1 yd to the JaxSt 21Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
96.7%
Eli Jenkins pass incomplete to Demontez TerrySimilar
Q3 11:31
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
96.8%
Eli Jenkins pass incomplete to Krenwick SandersSimilar
Q3 11:23
4TH & 8
OWN 21
0
96.8%
Dean Kelly punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:1197% → 97%
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
97.3%
Derrius Guice run for 5 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
97.3%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Derrius GuiceSimilar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 5
OWN 48
-10
97.2%
LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the LSU 38Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 15
OWN 38
0
97.1%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Malachi DupreSimilar
Q3 9:48
4TH & 15
OWN 38
0
96.9%
Josh Growden punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Lawon DeBardelaben at the JaxSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 16INT
7 plays · 46 yds · 3:003% → 3%
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
96.6%
Roc Thomas run for no gain to the JaxSt 16Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-6
96.7%
Eli Jenkins sacked by Arden Key for a loss of 6 yards to the JaxSt 10Similar
Q3 8:07
3RD & 16
OWN 10
+42
96.7%
Eli Jenkins pass complete to Kevin Spears for 42 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
96.5%
Eli Jenkins run for 3 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
96.5%
Eli Jenkins pass incomplete to Demontez TerrySimilar
Q3 7:03
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+6
96.5%
Eli Jenkins run for 6 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q3 6:33
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+1
96.7%
Roc Thomas run for 1 yd to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17TD
7 plays · 45 yds · 3:0098% → 99%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+29
97.5%
Derrius Guice run for 29 yds to the JaxSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
97.5%
Derrius Guice run for 6 yds to the JaxSt 10Similar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+2
97.5%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the JaxSt 8Similar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+7
97.5%
Bry'Kiethon Mouton run for 7 yds to the JaxSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.5%
Bry'Kiethon Mouton run for no gain to the JaxSt 1Similar
Q3 3:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
97.5%
Derrius Guice run for a loss of 1 yard to the JaxSt 2Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.1%
Danny Etling 2 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:581% → 1%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
98.9%
Josh Clemons run for 4 yds to the JaxSt 18Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+5
99.1%
Eli Jenkins pass complete to Shaq Davidson for 5 yds to the JaxSt 23Similar
Q3 0:55
3RD & 1
OWN 23
0
99.0%
Josh Clemons run for no gain to the JaxSt 23Similar
Q3 0:47
4TH & 1
OWN 23
+1
99.1%
Dean Kelly punt for 37 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 1 yd to the LSU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19FUMBLE
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:5499% → 99%
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.2%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to J.D. MooreSimilar
Q3 0:39
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
99.2%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:27
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+22
99.2%
Darrel Williams run for 22 yds to the JaxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-6
99.3%
Danny Etling sacked by Darius Jackson for a loss of 6 yards to the JaxSt 43 Danny Etling fumbled, recovered by JaxStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 20DOWNS
10 plays · 23 yds · 4:021% → 1%
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
99.1%
Eli Jenkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+13
99.1%
Eli Jenkins pass complete to Jamari Hester for 13 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
99.2%
Eli Jenkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 45Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+9
99.2%
Eli Jenkins pass complete to Shaq Davidson for 9 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q4 12:58
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+4
99.2%
Eli Jenkins pass complete to Jamari Hester for 4 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
99.1%
Eli Jenkins pass incomplete to Demontez TerrySimilar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
99.1%
Eli Jenkins run for 3 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q4 11:06
3RD & 7
OPP 29
-5
99.2%
Eli Jenkins sacked by Kendell Beckwith for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 34Similar
Q4 10:41
4TH & 12
OPP 34
0
99.3%
Eli Jenkins pass incomplete to Krenwick SandersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3299% → 99%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
99.4%
Derrius Guice run for 5 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+3
99.4%
Derrius Guice run for 3 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q4 9:08
3RD & 2
OWN 42
0
99.4%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Malachi DupreSimilar
Q4 8:58
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
99.4%
Josh Growden punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Lawon DeBardelaben at the JaxSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 22FG
13 plays · 57 yds · 4:151% → 1%
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
99.4%
Eli Jenkins run for 12 yds to the JaxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
99.3%
Eli Jenkins pass complete to Jalen Choice for 12 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.4%
Eli Jenkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+9
99.5%
Eli Jenkins pass complete to Kevin Spears for 9 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q4 6:48
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+3
99.5%
Josh Clemons run for 3 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
99.5%
Eli Jenkins pass complete to Kevin Spears for 6 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 4
OPP 31
0
99.4%
Eli Jenkins pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+19
99.5%
Eli Jenkins pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 19 yds to the LSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
99.4%
Eli Jenkins pass incomplete to Demontez TerrySimilar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+1
99.4%
Josh Clemons run for 1 yd to the LSU 11Similar
Q4 4:31
3RD & 9
OPP 11
0
99.5%
Eli Jenkins pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q4 4:31
4TH & 9
OPP 11
-5
99.5%
JACKSONVILLE ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the LSU 16Similar
Q4 4:27
4TH & 14
OPP 16
+33
99.5%
Cade Stinnett 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23END OF GAME
10 plays · 63 yds · 3:46100% → 100%
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+18
99.5%
Nick Brossette run for 18 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
99.6%
Nick Brossette run for 6 yds to the JaxSt 49Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 4
OPP 49
0
99.6%
Nick Brossette run for no gain to the JaxSt 49Similar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+9
99.7%
Nick Brossette run for 9 yds to the JaxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+19
99.7%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Drake Davis for 19 yds to the JaxSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
99.7%
Nick Brossette run for 7 yds to the JaxSt 14Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+3
99.7%
Justin McMillan run for 3 yds to the JaxSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
99.7%
Lanard Fournette run for 1 yd to the JaxSt 10Similar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 9
OPP 10
0
99.7%
Lanard Fournette run for no gain to the JaxSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:07
Bry'Kiethon Mouton 2 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye Kick)
+2.8
TD · Q2 3:55
Eli Jenkins pass complete to Krenwick Sanders for 76 yds for a TD, (Cade Stinnett KICK)
-2.7
TD · Q2 0:20
Tre'Davious White 60 Yd Punt Return (Colby Delahoussaye Kick)
+2.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com