Try the model
NICH

Nicholls 24 at Georgia 26

UGA
2016 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2016 · Sanford Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadNICH aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreNICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:20 · Tyler St. Germain punt for 32 yds, downed at the Geo 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 37Pregame prior+46.0Home team on offense+2.5Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:48: Chase Fourcade pass complete to Jarrell Rogers for 20 yds for a TD, (David McKey KICK) — NICH win probability +6.8 pts (now 14%) (top driver: NICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:43: Jacob Eason pass complete to Isaiah McKenzie for 66 yds for a TD, (William Ham KICK) — UGA win probability +5.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:50: Lorenzo Carter 24 Yd Fumble Return (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — UGA win probability +3.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NICH has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 7:50: David McKey 26 yd FG GOOD — NICH win probability +2.4 pts (now 8%) (top driver: NICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:42: Chase Fourcade pass complete to C.J. Bates for 6 yds for a TD, (David McKey KICK) — NICH win probability +27.2 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5NICH made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 10:56UGA 4th & 15 at UGA 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:30NICH 4th & 4 at NICH 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:34UGA 4th & 20 at NICH 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.1
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.1%
    47% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:20NICH 4th & 9 at UGA 37, down 7
    Close callPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%−<0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:57UGA 4th & 2 at NICH 5, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.9%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    97.5%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:58NICH 4th & 1 at NICH 44, down 10
    Close callPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:16NICH 4th & 6 at NICH 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:22UGA 4th & 5 at NICH 9, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    92.9%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:48NICH 4th & 1 at UGA 38, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    5.5%−1.4
    38% to make
    Punt
    5.5%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:52NICH 4th & 4 at UGA 48, down 12
    Close callPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:50NICH 4th & 8 at UGA 8, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.5%
    90% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−3.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:11UGA 4th & 2 at UGA 33, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:18NICH 4th & 9 at NICH 35, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3NICH made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 12:54UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:45NICH Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:48NICH Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:43UGA Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:50UGA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:42NICH Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.0 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.8%−1.0
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UGADrive 1TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 1:56100% → 100%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
99.7%
Nick Chubb run for 1 yd to the Geo 34Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+12
99.7%
Isaiah McKenzie run for 12 yds to the Geo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
99.7%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Sony Michel for 12 yds to the NicSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+36
99.7%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Terry Godwin for 36 yds to the NicSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.7%
Nick Chubb run for 6 yds for a TD, (William Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 2INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:110% → 0%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.6%
C.J. Okpalobi run for 3 yds to the NicSt 28Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
99.6%
C.J. Okpalobi run for 2 yds to the NicSt 30Similar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.6%
Chase Fourcade pass intercepted Juwuan Briscoe return for no gain to the Geo 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:34100% → 100%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
99.6%
Nick Chubb run for a loss of 5 yards to the Geo 41Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 15
OWN 41
0
99.6%
Jacob Eason pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 15
OWN 41
0
99.6%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Reggie DavisSimilar
Q1 10:56
4TH & 15
OWN 41
+1
99.6%
Marshall Long punt for 50 yds , Josh Singleton returns for 1 yd to the NicSt 42 NICHOLLS Penalty, Illegal Block (5 Yards) to the NicSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:200% → 1%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
99.6%
C.J. Okpalobi run for 3 yds to the NicSt 8Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 7
OWN 8
-2
99.6%
C.J. Okpalobi run for a loss of 2 yards to the NicSt 6Similar
Q1 9:38
3RD & 9
OWN 6
-3
99.6%
NICHOLLS Penalty, False Start (-3 Yards) to the NicSt 3Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 12
OWN 3
+8
99.5%
C.J. Okpalobi run for 8 yds to the NicSt 11Similar
Q1 8:30
4TH & 4
OWN 11
0
99.5%
Tyler St. Germain punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NicSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 5MISSED FG
7 plays · 2 yds · 2:48100% → 99%
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
99.5%
Nick Chubb run for 5 yds to the NicSt 31Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+7
99.5%
Nick Chubb run for 7 yds to the NicSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
99.5%
Brian Herrien run for 1 yd to the NicSt 23Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 9
OPP 23
-9
99.5%
GEORGIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dyshon Sims) to the NicSt 32Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 18
OPP 32
0
99.4%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Michael ChigbuSimilar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 18
OPP 32
-2
99.4%
Jacob Eason sacked by Kenny Dotson for a loss of 2 yards to the NicSt 34Similar
Q1 5:34
4TH & 20
OPP 34
+52
99.4%
William Ham 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 5:051% → 1%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.4%
Chase Fourcade pass complete to Damion Jeanpiere for 4 yds to the NicSt 39Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+8
99.3%
C.J. Okpalobi run for 8 yds to the NicSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
99.3%
Dontrell Taylor run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 7
50
-5
99.3%
NICHOLLS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NicSt 45Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+7
99.3%
Chase Fourcade run for 7 yds to the Geo 48Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+10
99.2%
Chase Fourcade pass complete to Josh Singleton for 10 yds to the Geo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
99.2%
Chase Fourcade pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
99.1%
C.J. Okpalobi run for 2 yds to the Geo 36Similar
Q1 1:05
3RD & 8
OPP 36
-1
99.1%
Chase Fourcade sacked by Trenton Thompson for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 37Similar
Q1 0:20
4TH & 9
OPP 37
0
99.1%
Tyler St. Germain punt for 32 yds, downed at the Geo 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 7FG
15 plays · 90 yds · 7:1899% → 99%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
99.1%
Nick Chubb run for 2 yds to the Geo 7Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 7
-2
99.1%
Nick Chubb run for a loss of 2 yards to the Geo 5Similar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 10
OWN 5
+29
99.0%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Charlie Woerner for 29 yds to the Geo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
99.0%
Brian Herrien run for 3 yds to the Geo 37Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+3
99.0%
Brian Herrien run for 3 yds to the Geo 40Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+11
98.9%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Terry Godwin for 11 yds to the NicSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
98.9%
Sony Michel run for 1 yd to the NicSt 48Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+23
98.9%
Brian Herrien run for 23 yds to the NicSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
98.9%
Brian Herrien run for 1 yd to the NicSt 24Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+11
98.8%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Michael Chigbu for 11 yds to the NicSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
98.8%
Terry Godwin run for 5 yds to the NicSt 8Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+3
98.7%
Nick Chubb run for 3 yds to the NicSt 5Similar
Q2 8:25
3RD & 2
OPP 5
0
98.7%
Nick Chubb run for no gain to the NicSt 5Similar
Q2 7:57
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+23
98.7%
William Ham 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 8INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:201% → 1%
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.7%
Dontrell Taylor run for 5 yds to the NicSt 30Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
98.7%
Dontrell Taylor run for 1 yd to the NicSt 31Similar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
98.6%
Chase Fourcade pass intercepted Dominick Sanders return for no gain to the Geo 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 9PUNT
3 plays · -5 yds · 1:0699% → 98%
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
98.6%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Isaiah McKenzie for a loss of 5 yards to the Geo 39Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 15
OWN 39
0
98.5%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Terry Godwin for no gain to the Geo 39Similar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 15
OWN 39
0
98.4%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Isaac NautaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:522% → 2%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
98.5%
Dontrell Taylor run for 4 yds to the NicSt 39Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
98.3%
Chase Fourcade pass incomplete to C.J. BatesSimilar
Q2 4:12
3RD & 6
OWN 39
-5
98.4%
NICHOLLS ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the NicSt 34Similar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+10
98.4%
C.J. Okpalobi run for 10 yds to the NicSt 44Similar
Q2 2:58
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
98.3%
Tyler St. Germain punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Isaiah McKenzie at the Geo 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 11FUMBLE
1 play · 12 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
98.3%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Nick Chubb for 12 yds Nick Chubb fumbled, recovered by NicSt Ahmani MartinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 12TD
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:542% → 4%
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
98.0%
Chase Fourcade pass incomplete to Joshua JohnsonSimilar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
98.0%
Chase Fourcade pass incomplete to C.J. OkpalobiSimilar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+18
98.1%
Chase Fourcade run for 18 yds to the Geo 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
97.8%
C.J. Okpalobi run for 5 yds to the Geo 7Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+3
97.7%
C.J. Okpalobi run for 3 yds to the Geo 4Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+4
96.2%
Dontrell Taylor run for 4 yds for a TD, (David McKey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 13END OF HALF
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:3497% → 96%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+17
96.5%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Brendan Douglas for 17 yds to the Geo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
96.7%
GEORGIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dyshon Sims) to the Geo 31Similar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 20
OWN 31
+5
96.4%
Brendan Douglas run for 5 yds to the Geo 36Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 15
OWN 36
0
96.4%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Charlie WoernerSimilar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 15
OWN 36
+6
96.2%
Brian Herrien run for 6 yds to the Geo 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:394% → 4%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
96.1%
C.J. Okpalobi run for 2 yds to the NicSt 20Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+2
96.0%
C.J. Okpalobi run for 2 yds to the NicSt 22Similar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 6
OWN 22
0
95.9%
Chase Fourcade pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:16
4TH & 6
OWN 22
+55
96.0%
Tyler St. Germain punt for 47 yds , Isaiah McKenzie returns for 55 yds to the NicSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 15FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4596% → 97%
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
96.4%
Nick Chubb run for 5 yds to the NicSt 9Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 5
OPP 9
0
96.2%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Christian PayneSimilar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
96.0%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Michael ChigbuSimilar
Q3 12:22
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+26
96.6%
William Ham 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 16TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:274% → 14%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.1%
Dontrell Taylor run for 5 yds to the NicSt 30Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
95.8%
Dontrell Taylor run for 4 yds to the NicSt 34Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
95.7%
Dontrell Taylor run for 1 yd to the NicSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
95.5%
Chase Fourcade pass complete to Jordan Talley for 1 yd to the NicSt 36Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+17
95.3%
Chase Fourcade pass complete to Jarrell Rogers for 17 yds to the Geo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
94.5%
C.J. Okpalobi run for a loss of 2 yards to the Geo 49Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 12
OPP 49
+10
94.4%
Chase Fourcade pass complete to Damion Jeanpiere for 10 yds to the Geo 39Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+1
93.6%
Dontrell Taylor run for 1 yd to the Geo 38Similar
Q3 7:48
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+3
93.8%
Chase Fourcade run for 3 yds to the Geo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
92.5%
Chase Fourcade pass complete to Jarrell Rogers for 15 yds to the Geo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
85.7%
Chase Fourcade pass complete to Jarrell Rogers for 20 yds for a TD, (David McKey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17TD
4 plays · 67 yds · 0:5289% → 94%
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
89.2%
Sony Michel run for 1 yd to the Geo 34Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 9
OWN 34
0
88.6%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Nick ChubbSimilar
Q3 5:43
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+66
93.9%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Isaiah McKenzie for 66 yds for a TD, (William Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 18FUMBLE RETURN TD
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:407% → 3%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
93.3%
C.J. Okpalobi run for 1 yd to the NicSt 20Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 9
OWN 20
-24
96.8%
Lorenzo Carter 24 Yd Fumble Return (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 4:483% → 5%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.7%
C.J. Okpalobi run for no gain to the NicSt 25Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
96.6%
C.J. Okpalobi run for 6 yds to the NicSt 31Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
96.1%
Devin Powell pass complete to Josh Singleton for 4 yds to the NicSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
96.0%
Devin Powell pass complete to Damion Jeanpiere for 8 yds to the NicSt 43Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+1
95.6%
C.J. Okpalobi run for 1 yd to the NicSt 44Similar
Q3 2:05
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
95.5%
C.J. Okpalobi run for 2 yds to the NicSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
95.3%
Dontrell Taylor run for 2 yds to the NicSt 48Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+2
95.1%
Dontrell Taylor run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:10
3RD & 6
50
+2
94.8%
C.J. Okpalobi run for 2 yds to the Geo 48Similar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
95.0%
Tyler St. Germain punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 20INT
10 plays · 70 yds · 5:2596% → 97%
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
96.2%
Isaiah McKenzie run for 18 yds to the Geo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
96.6%
Nick Chubb run for 18 yds to the NicSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
96.7%
Sony Michel run for 1 yd to the NicSt 43Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+15
97.2%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Reggie Davis for 15 yds to the NicSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
97.4%
Brian Herrien run for 7 yds to the NicSt 21Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+3
97.3%
Brian Herrien run for 3 yds to the NicSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
97.2%
Isaiah McKenzie run for 3 yds to the NicSt 15Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+8
97.3%
Nick Chubb run for 8 yds to the NicSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
97.2%
Nick Chubb run for a loss of 3 yards to the NicSt 10Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+91
97.2%
Jacob Eason pass intercepted Jeff Hall return for 91 yds to the Geo 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 21FG
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:106% → 8%
Q4 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
94.2%
C.J. Okpalobi run for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 8Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
93.9%
C.J. Okpalobi run for no gain to the Geo 8Similar
Q4 7:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
94.7%
Chase Fourcade pass incomplete to C.J. BatesSimilar
Q4 7:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
92.2%
David McKey 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2992% → 94%
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
92.3%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Sony Michel for a loss of 7 yards to the Geo 18Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+15
93.3%
Nick Chubb run for 15 yds to the Geo 33Similar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
94.1%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Charlie WoernerSimilar
Q4 6:11
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
93.8%
Marshall Long punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NicSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 23FUMBLE
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:426% → 6%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
94.0%
Dontrell Taylor run for 3 yds to the NicSt 18Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+16
93.8%
Chase Fourcade pass complete to Dontrell Taylor for 16 yds to the NicSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
92.7%
Dontrell Taylor run for 1 yd to the NicSt 35Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
92.4%
Chase Fourcade pass incomplete to Jarrell RogersSimilar
Q4 4:31
3RD & 9
OWN 35
0
93.5%
Chase Fourcade pass incomplete to C.J. OkpalobiSimilar
Q4 4:18
4TH & 9
OWN 35
0
93.8%
Tyler St. Germain punt for 49 yds , Isaiah McKenzie returns for no gain to the Geo 9 Isaiah McKenzie fumbled, recovered by NicSt Darryl AdamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 24TD
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:2810% → 37%
Q4 4:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
90.1%
Dontrell Taylor run for 3 yds to the Geo 6Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
62.9%
Chase Fourcade pass complete to C.J. Bates for 6 yds for a TD, (David McKey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 25END OF GAME
13 plays · 25 yds · 3:1078% → 93%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
77.9%
Nick Chubb run for 4 yds to the Geo 11Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 6
OWN 11
-1
77.5%
Nick Chubb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 10Similar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 7
OWN 10
+9
76.4%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Michael Chigbu for 9 yds to the Geo 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
78.1%
Nick Chubb run for 7 yds to the Geo 26Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 3
OWN 26
0
82.4%
Nick Chubb run for no gain to the Geo 26Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+7
83.8%
Nick Chubb run for 7 yds to the Geo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
88.6%
Nick Chubb run for 3 yds to the Geo 36Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 7
OWN 36
-2
90.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Geo 34Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 9
OWN 34
-2
93.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Geo 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:42
Chase Fourcade pass complete to C.J. Bates for 6 yds for a TD, (David McKey KICK)
-27.2
TD · Q3 6:48
Chase Fourcade pass complete to Jarrell Rogers for 20 yds for a TD, (David McKey KICK)
-6.8
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+6.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com