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ARK

Arkansas 41 at TCU 38

TCU
2016 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2016 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2FGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:50 · Adam Nunez punt for 35 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2Play 65Home team on offense−8.1Pregame prior+10.5Score differential−3.3Garbage-time factor−1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Time remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 9:44: Kenny Hill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Graf KICK) — TCU win probability +21.4 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  2. TD · Q4 7:15: Kyle Hicks run for 7 yds for a TD, (Ryan Graf KICK) — TCU win probability +37.0 pts (now 74%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 1:03: Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 16 yds for a TD, (Keon Hatcher pass to Austin Allen for Two-Point Conversion) — ARK win probability +53.1 pts (now 63%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 13 yds for a TD (Ryan Graf KICK) — TCU win probability +39.4 pts (now 61%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · OT2 0:00: Austin Allen run for 5 yds for a TD — ARK win probability +58.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ARK made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 11:40ARK 4th & 8 at TCU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    33.1%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:48TCU 4th & 4 at ARK 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    65.8%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    65.8%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:04ARK 4th & 12 at ARK 13, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:44TCU 4th & 6 at TCU 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:07ARK 4th & 9 at TCU 9, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    34.1%−4.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:50TCU 4th & 15 at ARK 35, down 13
    Close callPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    46.9%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:51ARK 4th & 10 at ARK 20, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−2.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:28TCU 4th & 14 at ARK 48, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:21ARK 4th & 10 at ARK 22, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%−2.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:24ARK 4th & 1 at ARK 38, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%−2.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:19TCU 4th & 6 at TCU 25, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−1.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:21TCU 4th & 11 at TCU 44, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−1.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:30ARK 4th & 4 at TCU 4, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.7%−0.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    77.2%−11.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:47ARK 4th & 2 at ARK 32, up 6
    Close callPunted · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.0%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:04ARK 4th & 6 at ARK 13, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−1.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 10:09ARK Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:58TCU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:27ARK Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:44TCU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.2%−0.6
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:15TCU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.1%−1.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:05TCU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−0.7
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:03ARK Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    22.1%−3.0
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    25.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1FG
9 plays · 55 yds · 3:1533% → 34%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
67.1%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 3 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
67.0%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 12 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
66.9%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 1 yd to the Ark 41Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+37
66.8%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 37 yds to the TCU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
66.5%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Drew MorganSimilar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+2
66.4%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 2 yds to the TCU 20Similar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 8
OPP 20
0
66.5%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q1 11:40
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+38
66.4%
Cole Hedlund 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2FUMBLE
12 plays · 71 yds · 2:5967% → 67%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.5%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
66.4%
Kyle Hicks run for 3 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
66.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ty Slanina for 8 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
66.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 7 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+14
66.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Emanuel Porter for 14 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
66.7%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Taj Williams, broken up by Ryan PulleySimilar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+3
66.7%
Derrick Green run for 3 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+3
66.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for 3 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q1 8:48
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+11
65.8%
Kenny Hill run for 21 yds to the Ark 16 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Illegal Block (Jarrison Stewart) to the Ark 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+22
66.5%
Deante Gray run for 22 yds to the Ark 4 Deante Gray fumbled, recovered by Ark Dre GreenlawSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 3:1434% → 34%
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
65.7%
Kody Walker run for no gain to the Ark 4Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+11
65.6%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 11 yds to the Ark 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
65.4%
Kody Walker run for 5 yds to the Ark 20Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 5
OWN 20
-1
65.2%
Kody Walker run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 19Similar
Q1 5:46
3RD & 6
OWN 19
-6
65.4%
Austin Allen sacked by Josh Carraway for a loss of 6 yards to the Ark 13Similar
Q1 5:04
4TH & 12
OWN 13
0
65.6%
Toby Baker punt for 59 yds, downed at the TCU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0864% → 63%
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
64.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 2 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
64.0%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Taj Williams, broken up by Ryan PulleySimilar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+2
63.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 2 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q1 3:44
4TH & 6
OWN 32
+16
63.1%
Adam Nunez punt for 49 yds , Jared Cornelius returns for 16 yds to the Ark 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5FG
14 plays · 56 yds · 6:3036% → 42%
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
63.9%
Rawleigh Williams III run for no gain to the Ark 35Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+18
64.0%
Austin Allen pass complete to Hayden Johnson for 18 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
62.4%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 6 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+3
62.0%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 3 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q1 1:06
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+2
61.8%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 2 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+14
61.7%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 14 yds to the TCU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
60.3%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 4 yds to the TCU 18Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+5
60.3%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 5 yds to the TCU 13Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+3
60.5%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 3 yds to the TCU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
59.9%
Dominique Reed run for 3 yds to the TCU 7Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
59.6%
Rawleigh Williams III run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 9Similar
Q2 12:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
60.4%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Rawleigh Williams IIISimilar
Q2 12:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
57.9%
Cole Hedlund 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6INT TD
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:4059% → 51%
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
58.6%
Kyle Hicks run for 3 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+9
59.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Deante Gray for 9 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
59.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ty Slanina for 2 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+13
59.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ty Slanina for 13 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-13
59.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 2 yds to the TCU 38 TCU Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the TCU 47Similar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 23
OWN 47
0
58.5%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 23
OWN 47
+47
50.8%
Kenny Hill pass intercepted for a TD Brooks Ellis return for 47 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 7PUNT
12 plays · 40 yds · 3:0750% → 50%
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
49.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 5 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
49.8%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Deante GraySimilar
Q2 9:22
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+26
49.2%
Kenny Hill run for 26 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
50.5%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Jarrison StewartSimilar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+14
50.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 14 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
51.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 31Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 11
OPP 31
-13
50.4%
Kenny Hill run for 2 yds to the Ark 29 TCU Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the Ark 44Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 24
OPP 44
0
48.5%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:33
3RD & 24
OPP 44
+9
51.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 9 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q2 6:50
4TH & 15
OPP 35
0
50.0%
Adam Nunez punt for 35 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5354% → 54%
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
46.4%
Devwah Whaley run for no gain to the Ark 20Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
45.3%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Drew Morgan, broken up by Ty SummersSimilar
Q2 5:59
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
45.8%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jeremy SprinkleSimilar
Q2 5:51
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
46.2%
Toby Baker punt for 51 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:1847% → 45%
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
47.1%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Ty SlaninaSimilar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-4
46.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Emanuel Porter for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 25Similar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 14
OWN 25
+31
45.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 31 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-6
47.9%
Kenny Hill sacked by Jeremiah Ledbetter and Randy Ramsey for a loss of 6 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 16
50
+2
46.5%
Kyle Hicks run for 2 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q2 3:36
3RD & 14
OPP 48
0
45.5%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to John DiarseSimilar
Q2 3:28
4TH & 14
OPP 48
0
45.0%
Adam Nunez punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jared Cornelius at the Ark 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 12 yds · 3:0158% → 64%
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
42.5%
Devwah Whaley run for 5 yds to the Ark 15Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+4
41.7%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 4 yds to the Ark 19Similar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+3
39.6%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 3 yds to the Ark 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
37.3%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for no gain to the Ark 22Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-8
36.7%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 2 yds to the Ark 24 ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jake Raulerson) to the Ark 14Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 18
OWN 14
+2
36.9%
Kody Walker run for 2 yds to the Ark 16Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 16
OWN 16
+6
36.7%
Kody Walker run for 6 yds to the Ark 22Similar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 10
OWN 22
+54
35.6%
Toby Baker punt for 54 yds , KaVontae Turpin returns for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11END OF HALF
6 plays · 30 yds · 0:1639% → 40%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
38.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 10 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
38.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 9 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+11
39.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ty Slanina for 11 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
40.3%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
40.2%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12TD
11 plays · 84 yds · 2:4940% → 55%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
39.6%
Kyle Hicks run for 2 yds to the TCU 18Similar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+9
39.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 9 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+18
39.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ty Slanina for 18 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-4
40.2%
Kenny Hill sacked by Deatrich Wise Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 41Similar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 14
OWN 41
+5
38.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 5 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q3 13:02
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+18
38.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 18 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
39.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 1 yd to the Ark 35Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+26
40.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 26 yds to the Ark 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
54.8%
Kyle Hicks run for 9 yds for a TD, (Ryan Graf KICK)Similar
Q3 11:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-10
54.9%
TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ark 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1954% → 55%
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
46.5%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 3 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+6
45.6%
Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 6 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 1
OWN 38
0
43.9%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jeremy Sprinkle, broken up by Ty SummersSimilar
Q3 10:24
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
45.3%
Toby Baker punt for 51 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:5848% → 45%
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-4
48.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 7Similar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 14
OWN 7
+13
47.4%
Kenny Hill run for 13 yds to the TCU 20Similar
Q3 9:19
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+1
47.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 1 yd to the TCU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
47.9%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Jarrison StewartSimilar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
47.6%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Jarrison StewartSimilar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+4
45.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Deante Gray for 4 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q3 8:19
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
45.1%
Adam Nunez punt for 38 yds, downed at the Ark 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 3:4558% → 80%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+24
41.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 24 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
39.8%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 2 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 8
OPP 37
-15
39.4%
Allen, Austin pass complete to Hatcher, Keon for 27 yards to the TCU10, PENALTY ARKANSAS pass interference (Hatcher, Keon) 15 yards to the ARKANSAS48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 23
OWN 48
+25
41.3%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 25 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
37.8%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 12 yds to the TCU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
37.4%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Colton Jackson) to the TCU 20Similar
Q3 5:02
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+7
37.3%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 7 yds to the TCU 13Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+13
19.8%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 13 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 1:5428% → 24%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
27.7%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Ty SlaninaSimilar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+5
27.2%
Kenny Hill run for 5 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q3 3:37
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+7
26.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ty Slanina for 7 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
27.8%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Taj WilliamsSimilar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
27.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Daniel Walsh for 7 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q3 2:48
3RD & 3
OPP 48
-8
27.9%
Kenny Hill sacked by McTelvin Agim for a loss of 8 yards to the TCU 44Similar
Q3 2:21
4TH & 11
OWN 44
+19
23.5%
Adam Nunez punt for 39 yds to Arkansas 17, Jared Cornelius returns for 19 yds to the ARKANSAS 36 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17MISSED FG
14 plays · 45 yds · 5:4183% → 91%
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
17.5%
Kody Walker run for 4 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+3
16.6%
Kody Walker run for 3 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q3 0:57
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+3
16.4%
Austin Allen run for 3 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
15.6%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 3 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+7
14.9%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 7 yds to the TCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
14.7%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+5
15.1%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 5 yds to the TCU 24Similar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+22
12.4%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 22 yds to the TCU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-4
9.0%
Rawleigh Williams III run for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 6Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
8.8%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 2 yds to the TCU 4Similar
Q4 11:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
7.7%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
8.8%
Cole Hedlund 22 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 1:4120% → 44%
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
20.0%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Taj WilliamsSimilar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
19.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 8 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+10
19.8%
Kenny Hill run for 10 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+57
18.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 57 yds to the Ark 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
22.8%
Hicks, Kyle rush for 5 yards to the ARKANSAS0, PENALTY TCU holding (Collins, Aviante) 10 yards to the ARKANSAS15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+14
21.8%
Derrick Green run for 14 yds to the Ark 1Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
22.5%
Kenny Hill run for no gain to the Ark 1Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
43.9%
Kenny Hill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Graf KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:4471% → 72%
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-3
29.3%
Rawleigh Williams III run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 21Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 13
OWN 21
+11
30.2%
Austin Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 11 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q4 8:04
3RD & 2
OWN 32
0
26.9%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:47
4TH & 2
OWN 32
+34
28.1%
Toby Baker punt for 52 yds , KaVontae Turpin returns for 34 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20TD
2 plays · 50 yds · 0:2337% → 74%
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
50
+43
37.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 43 yds to the Ark 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
74.2%
Kyle Hicks run for 7 yds for a TD, (Ryan Graf KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5936% → 32%
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
64.3%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jeremy Sprinkle, broken up by Nick OrrSimilar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+4
64.7%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 4 yds to the Ark 13Similar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 6
OWN 13
0
66.0%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:04
4TH & 6
OWN 13
0
67.6%
Toby Baker punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22TD
11 plays · 50 yds · 3:5172% → 98%
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
50
+5
72.0%
Derrick Green run for 5 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q4 5:26
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+12
72.6%
Kenny Hill run for 12 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
75.0%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Emanuel PorterSimilar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
74.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 3 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q4 4:09
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+16
72.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ty Slanina for 16 yds to the Ark 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
76.7%
Derrick Green run for 5 yds to the Ark 9Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+4
78.3%
Derrick Green run for 4 yds to the Ark 5Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+5
95.9%
Kenny Hill run for 5 yds for a TD, (Ryan Graf KICK)Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 1
OWN 35
-15
97.9%
TCU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kenny Hill) to the TCU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23TD
6 plays · 58 yds · 0:428% → 63%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
92.4%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 6 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+24
91.8%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 24 yds to the TCU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
87.3%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 33Similar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+17
89.8%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 17 yds to the TCU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
36.7%
Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 16 yds for a TD, (Keon Hatcher pass to Austin Allen for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24MISSED FG
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:3466% → 64%
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
66.1%
Hill, Kenny pass complete to Porter, Emanuel for 27 yards to the ARKANSAS0, PENALTY TCU illegal touching (Porter, Emanuel) 0 yards to the ARKANSAS27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
66.1%
Kenny Hill run for 4 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+12
66.1%
Kenny Hill run for 12 yds to the Ark 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
66.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
66.1%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Ty SlaninaSimilar
Q4 0:10
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+28
63.5%
Ryan Graf 28 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Dan SkipperSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q4 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
50.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 26TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 79%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
40.5%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 6 yds to the TCU 19Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
0
40.5%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jeremy SprinkleSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+19
21.4%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 19 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 27TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0028% → 61%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
28.1%
Kyle Hicks run for 9 yds to the Ark 16Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+5
28.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 5 yds to the Ark 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
28.1%
TCU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 16Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 15
OPP 16
0
23.1%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Taj WilliamsSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 15
OPP 16
+3
22.0%
Kyle Hicks run for 3 yds to the Ark 13Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 13
+13
61.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 13 yds for a TD (Ryan Graf KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 28FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0065% → 79%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
64.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Deante Gray for 4 yds to the Ark 21Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+1
64.7%
Kyle Hicks run for 1 yd to the Ark 20Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
62.4%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to KaVontae TurpinSimilar
OT2 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+37
79.3%
Ryan Graf 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 29TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0029% → 88%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
70.9%
Dominique Reed run for 15 yds to the TCU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
70.9%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 1 yd to the TCU 9Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
70.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Austin Cantrell for 4 yds to the TCU 5Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
12.3%
Austin Allen run for 5 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT2 0:00
Austin Allen run for 5 yds for a TD
-58.6
TD · Q4 1:03
Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 16 yds for a TD, (Keon Hatcher pass to Austin Allen for Two-Point Conversion)
-53.1
TD · OT 0:00
Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 13 yds for a TD (Ryan Graf KICK)
+39.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com