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MISS

Ole Miss 34 at Florida State 45

FSU
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2016 · Camping World Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:16 · Gary Wunderlich punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jesus Wilson at the FlaSt 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 186Home team on offense+14.9Pregame prior+1.9Score differential+4.6Garbage-time factor+3.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:42: Evan Engram 21 Yd pass from Chad Kelly (Gary Wunderlich Kick) — MISS win probability +13.2 pts (now 65%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:28: Freddie Stevenson 1 Yd Run (Ricky Aguayo Kick) — FSU win probability +14.3 pts (now 53%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q3 9:17: Kermit Whitfield 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — FSU win probability +14.9 pts (now 68%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:12: Ryan Izzo 2 Yd pass from Deondre Francois (Ricky Aguayo Kick) — FSU win probability +15.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:09: Van Jefferson 20 Yd pass from Chad Kelly (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — MISS win probability +20.3 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 9:57FSU 4th & 14 at FSU 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−0.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:56FSU 4th & 11 at FSU 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:32MISS 4th & 5 at MISS 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:01FSU 4th & 8 at MISS 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    53.2%−4.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:38FSU 4th & 20 at FSU 15, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−2.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:49FSU 4th & 4 at MISS 4, down 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.8%−0.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    29.9%−7.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:18FSU 4th & 4 at MISS 23, down 15
    Close callKicked a field goal · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.2%−0.4
    70% to make
    Punt
    24.6%−8.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:36MISS 4th & 7 at MISS 28, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−1.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:54MISS 4th & 16 at MISS 23, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−5.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:56FSU 4th & 6 at MISS 23, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    76.8%−9.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:16FSU 4th & 6 at MISS 27, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    66.1%−11.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:16MISS 4th & 11 at MISS 24, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−2.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:53FSU 4th & 1 at MISS 13, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.0%−1.9
    85% to make
    Punt
    85.8%−7.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:25MISS 4th & 15 at MISS 25, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 13:14MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:42MISS Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:42MISS Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:04MISS Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:28FSU Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:28FSU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:17FSU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    66.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    66.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:12FSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:09MISS Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    27.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    27.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:4036% → 37%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.1%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q1 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
64.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 6 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q1 14:29
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+36
64.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to A.J. Brown for 36 yds to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
63.9%
Kelly, Chad pass complete to Jefferson, Van for loss of 3 yards to the FLORIDAST36, PENALTY FLORIDAST unnecessary roughness (James, Derwin) 15 yards to the FLORIDAST18, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.Similar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+14
63.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 14 yds to the FlaSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
63.8%
Akeem Judd run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 3Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
63.2%
Damore'ea Stringfellow 3 Yd pass from Chad Kelly (Gary Wunderlich Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 3:0463% → 62%
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
63.3%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+8
63.2%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 8 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+6
63.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
63.0%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Kermit WhitfieldSimilar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-3
62.8%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 13
OWN 40
-1
62.1%
Deondre Francois sacked by Zedrick Woods and DeMarquis Gates for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q1 9:57
4TH & 14
OWN 39
0
61.8%
Logan Tyler punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3INT
4 plays · 24 yds · 0:2838% → 39%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
61.9%
Akeem Judd run for 13 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
61.7%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+11
61.7%
Chad Kelly run for 11 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
61.3%
Chad Kelly pass intercepted Derwin James return for no gain to the FlaSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1562% → 61%
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
61.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for no gain to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-10
61.5%
Francois, Deondre pass incomplete, PENALTY FLORIDAST holding (Eberle, Alec) 10 yards to the FLORIDAST29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 20
OWN 29
+9
61.2%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 9 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 11
OWN 38
0
61.0%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Ryan IzzoSimilar
Q1 7:56
4TH & 11
OWN 38
+7
60.7%
Logan Tyler punt for 47 yds , Carlos Davis returns for 7 yds to the Miss 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1939% → 39%
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
60.9%
Akeem Judd run for no gain to the Miss 22Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+3
60.6%
Akeem Judd run for 3 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+2
60.6%
Chad Kelly run for 2 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q1 6:32
4TH & 5
OWN 27
+56
60.6%
Gary Wunderlich punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jesus Wilson at the FLORIDAST 32 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the FlaSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6FG
17 plays · 75 yds · 6:2660% → 61%
Q1 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
60.3%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+19
60.1%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 19 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
60.5%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
50
-10
60.8%
Francois, Deondre pass sacked for loss of 1 yards to the FLORIDAST49 (Jones, Benito), PENALTY FLORIDAST holding 10 yards to the FLORIDAST40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 20
OWN 40
+2
59.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q1 4:12
2ND & 18
OWN 42
-5
59.5%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 23
OWN 37
+24
59.0%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 24 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
60.3%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 44Similar
Q1 2:58
1ST & 15
OPP 44
+13
59.5%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jacques Patrick for 13 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+4
60.1%
Jacques Patrick run for 4 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
59.9%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+17
59.2%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 9 yds to the Miss 16 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Tony Conner) to the Miss 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
59.0%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the Miss 8Similar
Q1 0:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
58.8%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q1 0:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
58.0%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Auden TateSimilar
Q1 0:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
60.7%
Ricky Aguayo 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:1940% → 51%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
59.6%
OLE MISS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Miss 20Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+7
59.8%
Eric Swinney run for 7 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
59.5%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 6 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q2 14:39
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+12
59.1%
Akeem Judd run for 12 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
58.2%
Chad Kelly run for 1 yd to the Miss 46Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+6
58.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 6 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+13
57.9%
Chad Kelly run for 13 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+26
56.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 26 yds to the FlaSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
56.5%
Chad Kelly run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 3Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
49.5%
D.K. Metcalf 3 Yd pass from Chad Kelly (Gary Wunderlich Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:5951% → 50%
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.2%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Dalvin CookSimilar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
50.7%
Deondre Francois sacked by DeMarquis Gates for a loss of 10 yards to the FlaSt 15Similar
Q2 11:47
3RD & 20
OWN 15
0
49.8%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q2 11:38
4TH & 20
OWN 15
+57
49.5%
Logan Tyler punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Carlos Davis at the FLORIDAST 43 OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Miss 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 1:5050% → 65%
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
49.8%
Eugene Brazley run for no gain to the Miss 28Similar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+21
49.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 21 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+37
48.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Taz Zettergren for 37 yds to the FlaSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
47.9%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-5
47.9%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Rod Taylor) to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 15
OPP 19
-7
47.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 22
OPP 26
+5
48.2%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Derrick Nnadi) to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q2 9:42
3RD & 17
OPP 21
+21
35.0%
Evan Engram 21 Yd pass from Chad Kelly (Gary Wunderlich Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10FG
15 plays · 71 yds · 4:4140% → 41%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
39.8%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
39.3%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 9 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
39.0%
Deondre Francois run for a loss of 10 yards to the FlaSt 26 Deondre Francois fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Deondre FrancoisSimilar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 20
OWN 26
-5
38.5%
Francois, Deondre pass complete to Harrison, Ja'Vonn for 8 yards to the FLORIDAST34, PENALTY FLORIDAST ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the FLORIDAST21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 25
OWN 21
+18
37.6%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 18 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 7
OWN 39
-5
37.7%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q2 6:42
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+5
36.3%
OLE MISS Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q2 6:21
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+15
36.8%
Francois, Deondre pass incomplete to Wilson, Jesus, PENALTY OLEMISS pass interference (Bridges, Tony) 15 yards to the OLEMISS46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+18
38.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 3 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Miss 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+25
38.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 25 yds Dalvin Cook fumbled, recovered by FlaStSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
39.2%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 4Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
38.0%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q2 4:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
37.3%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q2 4:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
40.7%
Ricky Aguayo 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 1:3264% → 78%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
35.6%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+12
35.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to A.J. Brown for 12 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
35.2%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Markell PackSimilar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
35.2%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q2 4:08
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+14
35.6%
Chad Kelly run for 14 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
33.5%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
33.4%
Chad Kelly run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q2 3:38
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+8
33.4%
Kelly, Chad pass incomplete to Lodge, DaMarkus, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference (Lewis, Marcus) 8 yards to the FLORIDAST41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.Similar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+30
32.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 30 yds to the FlaSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
32.2%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
21.9%
Akeem Judd 11 Yd Run (Gary Wunderlich Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 2:2228% → 40%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
28.0%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 10 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
28.1%
Francois, Deondre pass complete to Murray, Nyqwan for 7 yards to the FLORIDAST42, PENALTY FLORIDAST personal foul (Kelly II, Derrick) 15 yards to the FLORIDAST20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 25
OWN 20
+9
27.0%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 9 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+31
26.2%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 31 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
28.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 9 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 1
OPP 31
0
30.1%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+15
29.3%
Dalvin Cook run for 15 yds to the Miss 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
29.0%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
28.9%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+16
40.4%
Travis Rudolph 16 Yd pass from Deondre Francois (Ricky Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
30.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14FG
8 plays · 52 yds · 2:3533% → 37%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
33.4%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 24 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
35.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q3 13:56
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+20
34.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 20 yds to the Miss 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
35.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 6 yds to the Miss 23Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 4
OPP 23
0
35.1%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the Miss 23Similar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 4
OPP 23
0
33.4%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q3 12:18
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+40
36.8%
Ricky Aguayo 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0466% → 66%
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
34.4%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
34.5%
Chad Kelly pass intercepted Marcus Lewis return for no gain to the Miss 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16TD
3 plays · 32 yds · 0:3539% → 53%
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
39.2%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+31
39.0%
Deondre Francois run for 31 yds to the Miss 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.2%
Freddie Stevenson 1 Yd Run (Ricky Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17FUMBLE
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:2853% → 53%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
46.6%
Akeem Judd run for 1 yd to the Miss 16Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 9
OWN 16
-5
46.7%
Chad Kelly sacked by DeMarcus Walker for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 11 Chad Kelly fumbled, forced by DeMarcus Walker, recovered by FlaSt Derrick Nnadi , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18TD
3 plays · 11 yds · 1:2153% → 68%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
52.9%
Dalvin Cook run for 6 yds to the Miss 5Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+2
52.8%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the Miss 3Similar
Q3 9:17
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+3
67.7%
Kermit Whitfield 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19FUMBLE
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3336% → 34%
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
63.8%
Eugene Brazley run for 3 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
63.5%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Damore'ea StringfellowSimilar
Q3 8:47
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
64.9%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Van JeffersonSimilar
Q3 8:36
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
66.1%
Will Gleeson punt for 49 yds , Jesus Wilson returns for no gain to the FlaSt 23 Jesus Wilson fumbled, recovered by FlaStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 4:2465% → 85%
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
64.6%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Ryan Izzo) to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 15
OWN 18
+10
64.3%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 10 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 5
OWN 28
-5
64.9%
Jacques Patrick run for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q3 7:06
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+31
63.0%
Deondre Francois run for 31 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
68.5%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Da'Vante Phillips for 8 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+7
68.5%
Freddie Stevenson run for 7 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+29
69.5%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 29 yds to the Miss 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
69.3%
Jacques Patrick run for no gain to the Miss 2Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
84.8%
Ryan Izzo 2 Yd pass from Deondre Francois (Ricky Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:0921% → 17%
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
78.9%
Chad Kelly run for 1 yd to the Miss 30Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 9
OWN 30
0
79.1%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Akeem JuddSimilar
Q3 3:32
3RD & 9
OWN 30
-7
80.4%
Chad Kelly sacked by DeMarcus Walker for a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 23Similar
Q3 2:54
4TH & 16
OWN 23
0
83.4%
Gary Wunderlich punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Jesus Wilson at the FlaSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22FG
14 plays · 51 yds · 4:4984% → 87%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
83.6%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q3 2:23
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-5
83.4%
Deondre Francois sacked by Marquis Haynes for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 15
OWN 21
+18
82.8%
Dalvin Cook run for 18 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
85.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+7
85.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 7 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q3 0:38
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+3
85.4%
Deondre Francois run for 3 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
86.4%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q3 0:04
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+12
86.2%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 12 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
86.6%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 6 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+4
87.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
87.6%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 4 yds to the Miss 23Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 6
OPP 23
0
87.8%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Kermit WhitfieldSimilar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 6
OPP 23
0
87.1%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:56
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+40
87.1%
Ricky Aguayo 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:3914% → 39%
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+42
86.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 42 yds to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
81.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 10 yds to the FlaSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
81.5%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Van Jefferson for 3 yds to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+20
61.2%
Van Jefferson 20 Yd pass from Chad Kelly (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 24FG
10 plays · 26 yds · 2:4377% → 87%
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
77.4%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Derrick Kelly II) to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 15
OWN 42
0
75.8%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 15
OWN 42
0
76.9%
Deondre Francois run for no gain to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 15
OWN 42
+27
76.3%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 27 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
80.9%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the Miss 31Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
80.7%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:32
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+4
79.2%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 4 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q4 9:16
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+44
86.9%
Ricky Aguayo 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5514% → 12%
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
86.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 6 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
84.3%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-7
85.7%
Chad Kelly sacked by DeMarcus Walker and Jacob Pugh for a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 24Similar
Q4 8:16
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
88.0%
Gary Wunderlich punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jesus Wilson at the FlaSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 26FG
8 plays · 50 yds · 3:1789% → 94%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
88.8%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+14
89.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 14 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
90.8%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 13 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
91.0%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 10 yds to the Miss 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
91.5%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 5 yds to the Miss 17Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+4
93.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the Miss 13Similar
Q4 5:24
3RD & 1
OPP 13
0
93.3%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the Miss 13Similar
Q4 4:53
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+30
93.6%
Ricky Aguayo 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 27INT
12 plays · 11 yds · 2:258% → 5%
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
92.2%
Chad Kelly sacked by DeMarcus Walker and Derrick Nnadi for a loss of 10 yards to the Miss 15Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+15
92.9%
Kelly, Chad pass incomplete, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference (Marshall, Trey) 15 yards to the OLEMISS30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.Similar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
91.8%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
92.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Akeem Judd for no gain to the Miss 30Similar
Q4 3:32
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
93.4%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to D.K. MetcalfSimilar
Q4 3:32
4TH & 10
OWN 30
-5
93.8%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Javon Patterson) to the Miss 25Similar
Q4 3:25
4TH & 15
OWN 25
+17
94.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 17 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
93.1%
Akeem Judd run for 3 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 7
OWN 45
-9
93.0%
Chad Kelly sacked by DeMarcus Walker for a loss of 9 yards to the Miss 36Similar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 16
OWN 36
0
94.8%
Chad Kelly pass intercepted Tarvarus McFadden return for no gain to the FlaSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 28END OF GAME
6 plays · 39 yds · 1:5596% → 98%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+18
96.2%
Dalvin Cook run for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
50
+2
97.0%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+1
97.2%
Jacques Patrick run for 1 yd to the Miss 47Similar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+20
97.5%
Deondre Francois run for 20 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-2
97.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:09
Van Jefferson 20 Yd pass from Chad Kelly (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-20.3
TD · Q3 4:12
Ryan Izzo 2 Yd pass from Deondre Francois (Ricky Aguayo Kick)
+15.5
TD · Q3 9:17
Kermit Whitfield 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+14.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com