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APP

App State 13 at Tennessee 20

TENN
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2016 · Neyland Stadium
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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreAPP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:39 · Bentlee Critcher punt for 40 yds , Cameron Sutton returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Tenn 36 Cameron Sutton fumbled, recovered by AppSt Alex Gray
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 6Pregame prior+43.5Home team on offense+0.0Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Time remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 3:00: Aaron Medley 39 yd FG GOOD — TENN win probability +8.4 pts (now 57%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 10:30: Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 67 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +30.7 pts (now 69%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:15: Marcus Cox run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 31 — APP win probability +9.8 pts (now 49%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · OT 0:00: Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 11 yds to the AppSt 14 for a 1ST down — TENN win probability +20.3 pts (now 65%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Jalen Hurd 0 Yd Fumble Recovery (Aaron Medley Kick) — TENN win probability +10.3 pts (now 75%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 8 of 8APP made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 12:39APP 4th & 7 at APP 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:14TENN 4th & 5 at APP 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.0%
    92% to make
    Punt
    88.2%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:25APP 4th & 11 at APP 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:09TENN 4th & 6 at TENN 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:35APP 4th & 14 at APP 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−0.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:53TENN 4th & 18 at TENN 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−0.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:17APP 4th & 1 at TENN 45, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    14.3%−1.5
    25% to make
    Punt
    14.7%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:35TENN 4th & 15 at TENN 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:56APP 4th & 6 at APP 12, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−0.9
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:02TENN 4th & 17 at TENN 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%−2.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:00TENN 4th & 7 at APP 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−1.0
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.1%
    74% to make
    Punt
    32.4%−10.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:34APP 4th & 11 at TENN 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    62.8%−0.5
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:51APP 4th & 3 at APP 26, tied
    Close callPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:31TENN 4th & 18 at TENN 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−10.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:24APP 4th & 7 at TENN 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    22.9%−20.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:39TENN 4th & 12 at TENN 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%−5.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1APP made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:56APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:53APP Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    23.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:30TENN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
APPDrive 1FUMBLE
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:156% → 6%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-11
94.4%
Marcus Cox run for no gain to the AppSt 17 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Parker Collins) to the AppSt 6Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 21
OWN 6
+12
94.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Deltron Hopkins for 12 yds to the AppSt 18Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 9
OWN 18
-5
94.2%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 13Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 14
OWN 13
+7
94.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for 7 yds to the AppSt 20Similar
Q1 12:39
4TH & 7
OWN 20
-4
94.0%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 40 yds , Cameron Sutton returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Tenn 36 Cameron Sutton fumbled, recovered by AppSt Alex GraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2TD
5 plays · 36 yds · 1:376% → 7%
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
93.8%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Jaylan BarbourSimilar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+20
93.8%
Marcus Cox run for 20 yds to the Tenn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
93.6%
Marcus Cox run for no gain to the Tenn 16Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+11
93.5%
Marcus Cox run for 11 yds to the Tenn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
93.0%
Taylor Lamb run for 5 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 3FG
17 plays · 70 yds · 4:3693% → 92%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Tenn 27Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
93.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 9 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
92.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 6 yds to the Tenn 42Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+5
93.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Preston Williams for 5 yds to the Tenn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
92.8%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Tenn 47Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+12
92.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Preston Williams for 12 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
92.5%
Joshua Dobbs run for 3 yds to the AppSt 38Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 7
OPP 38
0
92.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh MaloneSimilar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+16
92.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Preston Williams for 16 yds to the AppSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
92.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh MaloneSimilar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+13
92.3%
Jalen Hurd run for 13 yds to the AppSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
92.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the AppSt 6Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
91.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the AppSt 5Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
91.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Preston Williams, broken up by Clifton DuckSimilar
Q1 6:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
91.8%
Aaron Medley 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:328% → 9%
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+12
91.6%
Jalin Moore run for 12 yds to the AppSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
91.3%
Deltron Hopkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 25Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 11
OWN 25
0
91.1%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Barrett BurnsSimilar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 11
OWN 25
0
91.2%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Jalin MooreSimilar
Q1 4:25
4TH & 11
OWN 25
0
91.2%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 44 yds , Cameron Sutton returns for no gain to the Tenn 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5191% → 90%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
90.7%
Joshua Dobbs run for 4 yds to the Tenn 35Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
90.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jauan Jennings for no gain to the Tenn 35Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
90.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Alvin Kamara, broken up by Clifton DuckSimilar
Q1 3:09
4TH & 6
OWN 35
+31
90.1%
Trevor Daniel punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jaquil Capel at the TENNESSEE 19 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Jalen Reeves-Maybin) to the AppSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:0510% → 10%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
90.0%
Jaylan Barbour run for no gain to the AppSt 34Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-4
89.8%
Jalin Moore run for a loss of 4 yards to the AppSt 30Similar
Q1 1:43
3RD & 14
OWN 30
0
89.9%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Jalin MooreSimilar
Q1 1:35
4TH & 14
OWN 30
0
90.0%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Cameron Sutton at the Tenn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:3190% → 88%
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
89.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Preston Williams for 5 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+8
89.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 8 yds to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-8
89.5%
Joshua Dobbs sacked by Antonious Sims for a loss of 8 yards to the Tenn 32Similar
Q1 0:06
2ND & 18
OWN 32
0
88.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 18
OWN 32
0
88.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Jalen HurdSimilar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 18
OWN 32
0
88.2%
Trevor Daniel punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jaquil Capel at the AppSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 5:4711% → 20%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
88.7%
Marcus Cox run for 6 yds to the AppSt 29Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+5
88.2%
Marcus Cox run for 5 yds to the AppSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
87.9%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Deltron Hopkins for 9 yds to the AppSt 43Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+3
87.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Jaquil Capel for 3 yds to the AppSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
86.9%
Marcus Cox run for 6 yds to the Tenn 48Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+3
86.2%
Marcus Cox run for 3 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 1
OPP 45
0
85.7%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Jaquil Capel, broken up by Rashaan GauldenSimilar
Q2 11:17
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+1
86.2%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Barrett Burns for 1 yd to the Tenn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
85.3%
Marcus Cox run for 5 yds to the Tenn 39Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+3
84.8%
Jalin Moore run for 3 yds to the Tenn 36Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+3
84.2%
Taylor Lamb run for 3 yds to the Tenn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
80.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for 33 yds for a TD, (Michael Rubino PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 19 yds · 4:0580% → 74%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
79.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 8 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
79.7%
Jalen Hurd run for 5 yds to the Tenn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
79.3%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+5
78.9%
Alvin Kamara run for 5 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+4
78.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 4 yds to the Tenn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
78.4%
Joshua Dobbs run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 48Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 11
OWN 48
0
77.4%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Tenn 48Similar
Q2 5:37
3RD & 11
OWN 48
-10
76.4%
Dobbs, Joshua pass short right complete to Malone, Josh for 9 yards to the APPALCHAN43 (caught at the TENNESSEE49), PENALTY TENNESSEE holding (Kendrick, Brett) 10 yards to the TENNESSEE38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 21
OWN 38
+6
75.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 6 yds to the Tenn 44Similar
Q2 4:35
4TH & 15
OWN 44
0
74.4%
Trevor Daniel punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jaquil Capel at the AppSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:0425% → 25%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
74.9%
Jalin Moore run for 5 yds to the AppSt 13Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+1
74.4%
Jalin Moore run for 1 yd to the AppSt 14Similar
Q2 3:05
3RD & 4
OWN 14
-2
75.2%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 12Similar
Q2 2:56
4TH & 6
OWN 12
0
75.0%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Cameron Sutton at the Tenn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11INT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:2775% → 71%
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
74.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh SmithSimilar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
74.0%
Jalen Hurd run for 5 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
Q2 2:17
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+11
74.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 11 yds to the AppSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
73.4%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the AppSt 35Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+7
73.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Preston Williams for 7 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+3
71.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass intercepted Mondo Williams return for 3 yds to the AppSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:3029% → 30%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
70.6%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the AppSt 10Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 8
OWN 10
0
69.9%
Marcus Cox run for no gain to the AppSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 2:2869% → 61%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
68.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 5 yds to the Tenn 46Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+7
68.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 7 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
69.2%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (Coleman Thomas) to the Tenn 48Similar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+5
67.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 5 yds to the AppSt 47Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+5
67.5%
Alvin Kamara run for 5 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 5
OPP 42
-12
67.0%
Joshua Dobbs run for a loss of 12 yards to the Tenn 46 Joshua Dobbs fumbled, recovered by Tenn Alvin KamaraSimilar
Q3 12:02
4TH & 17
OWN 46
0
61.1%
Trevor Daniel punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14INT
10 plays · 31 yds · 4:5137% → 46%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
63.3%
Marcus Cox run for 8 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+2
61.5%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Jaylan Barbour for 2 yds to the AppSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
61.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Deltron Hopkins for 2 yds to the AppSt 32Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+5
60.2%
Lamb, Taylor pass right sideline incomplete to Burns, Barrett thrown to the APPALCHAN40, PENALTY TENNESSEE offside (Lewis, LaTroy) 5 yards to the APPALCHAN37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+3
59.2%
Taylor Lamb run for 3 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
57.8%
Marcus Cox run for 9 yds to the AppSt 49Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+4
56.7%
Marcus Cox run for 4 yds to the Tenn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
55.6%
Jalin Moore run for no gain to the Tenn 47Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-2
54.3%
Taylor Lamb run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 49 Taylor Lamb fumbled, recovered by AppSt Taylor LambSimilar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 12
OPP 49
0
53.7%
Taylor Lamb pass intercepted Cameron Sutton return for no gain to the Tenn 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 15FG
11 plays · 48 yds · 3:3054% → 57%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
53.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+13
51.1%
Joshua Dobbs run for 13 yds to the Tenn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
52.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Tenn 48Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+13
52.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 13 yds to the AppSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
52.2%
Alvin Kamara run for 7 yds to the AppSt 32Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+1
53.5%
Alvin Kamara run for 1 yd to the AppSt 31Similar
Q3 4:21
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+7
50.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 7 yds to the AppSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
52.2%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the AppSt 24Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+3
51.2%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the AppSt 21Similar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 7
OPP 21
0
48.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Alvin Kamara, broken up by Teh'Ron FullerSimilar
Q3 3:00
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+39
56.8%
Aaron Medley 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 35 yds · 5:1150% → 62%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
50.2%
Taylor Lamb run for 2 yds to the AppSt 39 for a 1ST down Jaylan Barbour for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
46.7%
Marcus Cox run for 5 yds to the AppSt 44Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+1
45.6%
Taylor Lamb run for 1 yd to the AppSt 45Similar
Q3 1:02
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+16
45.0%
Marcus Cox run for 16 yds to the Tenn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
42.7%
Jalin Moore run for no gain to the Tenn 39Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+6
38.0%
Deltron Hopkins run for 6 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 4
OPP 33
-10
37.5%
Cox, Marcus rush over right tackle for 2 yards to the TENNESSEE31, PENALTY APPALCHAN holding (Fernandez, Tyson) 10 yards to the TENNESSEE43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:48
3RD & 14
OPP 43
-5
38.5%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 48Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 19
OPP 48
+8
38.1%
Taylor Lamb run for 8 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q4 12:34
4TH & 11
OPP 40
0
38.4%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 32 yds, downed at the Tenn 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17TD
6 plays · 92 yds · 1:5042% → 69%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
41.5%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 7Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 11
OWN 7
+11
41.0%
Jalen Hurd run for 11 yds to the Tenn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
41.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh Smith, broken up by A.J. HowardSimilar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+1
40.8%
Alvin Kamara run for 1 yd to the Tenn 19Similar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+14
37.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 14 yds to the Tenn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+67
68.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 67 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2437% → 35%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
63.2%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the AppSt 20Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 9
OWN 20
0
63.2%
Marcus Cox run for no gain to the AppSt 20Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+6
64.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 6 yds to the AppSt 26Similar
Q4 8:51
4TH & 3
OWN 26
+4
64.9%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 44 yds , Cameron Sutton returns for 4 yds to the Tenn 30 TENNESSEE Penalty, Illegal Block (Nigel Warrior) to the Tenn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:1466% → 61%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
66.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Alvin Kamara, broken up by Antonious SimsSimilar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+2
65.4%
Alvin Kamara run for 2 yds to the Tenn 26Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 8
OWN 26
-10
63.0%
Dobbs, Joshua pass right screen complete to Malone, Josh for 7 yards to the TENNESSEE33 (caught at the TENNESSEE30), PENALTY TENNESSEE holding (Thomas, Coleman) 10 yards to the TENNESSEE16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:46
3RD & 18
OWN 16
0
62.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Ethan WolfSimilar
Q4 7:31
4TH & 18
OWN 16
+45
60.9%
Trevor Daniel punt for 57 yds , Jaquil Capel returns for 45 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 20MISSED FG
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:5149% → 44%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
51.1%
Marcus Cox run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 31Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 13
OPP 31
+8
52.3%
Marcus Cox run for 8 yds to the Tenn 23Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 5
OPP 23
-2
51.3%
Marcus Cox run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 25Similar
Q4 5:24
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+42
55.6%
Michael Rubino 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:3664% → 59%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
64.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 3 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
64.3%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the Tenn 33Similar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+9
66.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 9 yds to the Tenn 43 Jalen Hurd fumbled, forced by A.J. Howard, recovered by Tenn Dylan Wiesman for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-11
67.1%
Joshua Dobbs sacked by Caleb Fuller for a loss of 11 yards to the Tenn 32Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 21
OWN 32
0
61.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Jalen HurdSimilar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 21
OWN 32
+9
59.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 9 yds to the Tenn 41Similar
Q4 2:39
4TH & 12
OWN 41
0
59.0%
Trevor Daniel punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jaquil Capel at the AppSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 22END OF GAME
9 plays · 56 yds · 2:3046% → 56%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
54.5%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the AppSt 15Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+12
54.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Deltron Hopkins for 12 yds to the AppSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
52.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 13 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
48.4%
Deltron Hopkins run for 8 yds to the AppSt 48Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+10
45.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Dante Jones for 10 yds to the Tenn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
44.3%
Marcus Cox run for 9 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 1
OPP 33
-4
41.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for a loss of 4 yards to the Tenn 37Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+7
44.4%
Taylor Lamb run for 7 yds to the Tenn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23TD
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 75%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
64.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 11 yds to the AppSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
64.7%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the AppSt 12Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+2
64.7%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the AppSt 10Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+6
62.4%
Joshua Dobbs run for 6 yds to the AppSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
64.7%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the AppSt 1Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
64.7%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 2Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
75.0%
Jalen Hurd 0 Yd Fumble Recovery (Aaron Medley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 24Uncategorized
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0020% → 10%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
80.4%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Shaedon MeadorsSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+4
82.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Deltron Hopkins for 4 yds to the Tenn 21Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+1
86.0%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the Tenn 20Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 20
0
90.3%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Shaedon Meadors, broken up by Micah AbernathySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:30
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 67 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)
+30.7
KEY PLAY · OT 0:00
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 11 yds to the AppSt 14 for a 1ST down
+20.3
TD · OT 0:00
Jalen Hurd 0 Yd Fumble Recovery (Aaron Medley Kick)
+10.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com