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USA

South Alabama 21 at Mississippi State 20

MSST
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2016 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:51 · Corliss Waitman punt for 46 yds, downed at the MisSt 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 104Pregame prior+24.3Home team on offense+14.6Garbage-time factor+2.0Score differential+6.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.8Blowout margin+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:13: Dallas Davis pass complete to Josh Magee for 20 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK) — USA win probability +4.2 pts (now 9%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 6:35: Westin Graves 48 yd FG GOOD — MSST win probability +2.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:51: Tyreis Thomas run for 4 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK) — USA win probability +15.6 pts (now 22%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:57: Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for 4 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK) — USA win probability +56.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:04: TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 8 — USA win probability +25.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 5 of 7USA made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:35MSST 4th & 3 at MSST 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:54USA 4th & 1 at USA 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:57MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:48USA 4th & 24 at USA 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:19USA 4th & 15 at MSST 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:27USA 4th & 17 at USA 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:41MSST 4th & 6 at USA 20, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    94.4%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:07USA 4th & 7 at MSST 8, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.1%
    90% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:09USA 4th & 1 at MSST 41, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    2.6%−1.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:35MSST 4th & 14 at USA 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.3%
    54% to make
    Punt
    91.7%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:51USA 4th & 19 at USA 16, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−1.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:30MSST 4th & 3 at USA 41, up 13
    Close callPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    94.6%−1.0
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:48USA 4th & 2 at USA 46, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.5%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:50MSST 4th & 5 at USA 45, up 6
    Close callPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    87.7%−1.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:48USA 4th & 2 at USA 17, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%−1.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:03MSST 4th & 18 at USA 29, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%−3.5
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    81.7%−7.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2USA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 3:19MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:20MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:13USA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:51USA Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:57USA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.5%−4.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2098% → 97%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
97.5%
Brandon Holloway run for 2 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
97.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+5
97.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q1 13:35
4TH & 3
OWN 31
0
97.3%
Logan Cooke punt for 57 yds , Jaylan Daniels returns for no gain to the SAlab 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 4:163% → 3%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
97.2%
Xavier Johnson run for 1 yd to the SAlab 13Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+3
97.1%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Xavier Johnson for 3 yds to the SAlab 16Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+10
97.1%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Kevin Kutchera for 10 yds to the SAlab 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
96.9%
Tyreis Thomas run for 6 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+2
96.8%
Tyreis Thomas run for 2 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q1 9:39
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+1
96.7%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Xavier Johnson for 1 yd to the SAlab 35Similar
Q1 8:54
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
96.6%
Corliss Waitman punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5197% → 96%
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
96.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Justin JohnsonSimilar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
96.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q1 8:14
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
96.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Justin JohnsonSimilar
Q1 7:57
4TH & 4
OWN 33
+28
96.4%
Logan Cooke punt blocked by Nigel Lawrence, downed SALab 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -14 yds · 2:014% → 4%
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
96.3%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Gerald EverettSimilar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+3
96.2%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for 3 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 7
OWN 42
-5
96.1%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 37Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 12
OWN 37
-12
96.0%
Dallas Davis sacked by A.J. Jefferson for a loss of 12 yards to the SAlab 25Similar
Q1 5:48
4TH & 24
OWN 25
0
96.0%
Corliss Waitman punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:2196% → 96%
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+19
96.0%
Damian Williams pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 19 yds to the SAlab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
96.0%
Damian Williams pass complete to Keith Mixon for 8 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+11
96.0%
Damian Williams pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 11 yds to the SAlab 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
95.9%
Damian Williams run for 4 yds to the SAlab 18Similar
Q1 3:57
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+6
95.8%
Damian Williams pass complete to Jamal Couch for 6 yds to the SAlab 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
95.8%
Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the SAlab 4Similar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+4
96.4%
Damian Williams pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 4 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6MISSED FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:484% → 5%
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
96.1%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for 29 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
95.8%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 49Similar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+25
95.9%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Josh Magee for 25 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
95.5%
Xavier Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 27Similar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 11
OPP 27
0
95.4%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Josh Magee for no gain to the MisSt 27Similar
Q1 0:07
3RD & 11
OPP 27
+12
95.4%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Tyrone Williams for 12 yds to the MisSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
95.1%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 17Similar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 12
OPP 17
-3
95.0%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Tyreis Thomas for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 20Similar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 15
OPP 20
0
95.2%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Jordan McCraySimilar
Q2 13:19
4TH & 15
OPP 20
+37
95.4%
Gavin Patterson 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:4495% → 97%
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+46
95.4%
Fred Ross run for 46 yds to the SAlab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
95.7%
Damian Williams pass complete to Fred Ross for 12 yds to the SAlab 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
95.5%
Damian Williams pass complete to Justin Johnson for 4 yds to the SAlab 18Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+4
95.5%
Keith Mixon run for 4 yds to the SAlab 14Similar
Q2 11:29
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+7
95.3%
Damian Williams run for 7 yds to the SAlab 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
96.8%
Brandon Holloway run for 7 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8FUMBLE
7 plays · 7 yds · 2:454% → 4%
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
96.3%
Xavier Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the SAlab 21Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+18
96.3%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Josh Magee for 18 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
96.1%
Dami Ayoola run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 36Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 13
OWN 36
0
96.2%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Jordan McCraySimilar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 13
OWN 36
-4
96.2%
Dallas Davis sacked by J.T. Gray for a loss of 4 yards to the SAlab 32Similar
Q2 8:27
4TH & 17
OWN 32
0
96.2%
Corliss Waitman punt for 33 yds , J.T. Gray returns for no gain to the MisSt 16 J.T. Gray fumbled, recovered by MisStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9FG
11 plays · 64 yds · 3:4696% → 97%
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
96.4%
Ashton Shumpert run for 6 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+10
96.2%
Damian Williams pass complete to Fred Ross for 10 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
96.2%
Ashton Shumpert run for 4 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+20
96.2%
Brandon Holloway run for 20 yds to the SAlab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
96.3%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the SAlab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
96.3%
Damian Williams run for 9 yds to the SAlab 25Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+1
96.3%
Damian Williams pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 1 yd to the SAlab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
96.3%
Brandon Holloway run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 25Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 11
OPP 25
0
96.2%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Justin JohnsonSimilar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 11
OPP 25
+5
96.1%
Damian Williams pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 5 yds to the SAlab 20Similar
Q2 4:41
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+37
97.1%
Westin Graves 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10MISSED FG
12 plays · 67 yds · 4:084% → 4%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.5%
Tyreis Thomas run for 3 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+23
96.4%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for 23 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
96.1%
Dallas Davis run for 3 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+11
96.1%
Dallas Davis run for 11 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+24
95.7%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for 24 yds to the MisSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
95.6%
Tyreis Thomas run for 4 yds to the MisSt 7Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 6
OPP 7
-1
95.3%
Xavier Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 8Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
95.4%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Xavier JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+25
95.7%
Gavin Patterson 25 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
96.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:414% → 9%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
96.3%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Josh Magee for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:18
1ST & 10
50
+1
95.9%
Xavier Johnson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 49Similar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+7
96.0%
Dallas Davis run for 7 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+1
95.9%
Dallas Davis run for 1 yd to the MisSt 41Similar
Q3 12:09
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+2
96.1%
Xavier Johnson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
95.9%
Tyreis Thomas run for 14 yds to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
95.5%
Tyreis Thomas run for 5 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+20
91.3%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Josh Magee for 20 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13FG
12 plays · 46 yds · 3:1793% → 95%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
93.0%
Damian Williams pass complete to Fred Ross for 6 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+23
93.1%
Damian Williams run for 23 yds to the SAlab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
93.5%
Brandon Holloway run for no gain to the SAlab 48Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+11
93.4%
Damian Williams pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 11 yds to the SAlab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
93.5%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Brandon HollowaySimilar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+10
93.4%
Damian Williams run for 10 yds to the SAlab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-8
93.5%
Brandon Holloway run for 2 yds to the SAlab 25 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SAlab 35Similar
Q3 7:21
1ST & 18
OPP 35
0
93.4%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Gabe MylesSimilar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 18
OPP 35
+4
93.3%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 14
OPP 31
0
92.8%
Damian Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 14
OPP 31
+48
94.8%
Westin Graves 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 1:325% → 5%
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
94.6%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Josh Magee for 2 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
94.4%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Quinton LaneSimilar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
94.6%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 22Similar
Q3 5:11
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-6
94.7%
Dallas Davis sacked by A.J. Jefferson for a loss of 6 yards to the SAlab 16Similar
Q3 4:51
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
94.9%
Corliss Waitman punt for 46 yds, downed at the MisSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:0196% → 95%
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
95.7%
Damian Williams pass complete to Keith Mixon for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 34Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+18
95.4%
Damian Williams pass complete to Justin Johnson for 18 yds to the SAlab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
95.8%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Jesse JacksonSimilar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
95.8%
Ashton Shumpert run for 4 yds to the SAlab 44Similar
Q3 3:11
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+3
95.6%
Damian Williams run for 3 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q3 2:30
4TH & 3
OPP 41
0
95.4%
Logan Cooke punt for 40 yds, downed at the SAlab 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16TD
10 plays · 99 yds · 4:235% → 22%
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+37
94.6%
Tyreis Thomas run for 37 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
93.7%
Tyreis Thomas run for no gain to the SAlab 38Similar
Q3 1:04
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+9
94.2%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Kevin Kutchera for 9 yds to the SAlab 47Similar
Q3 0:22
3RD & 1
OWN 47
-1
93.7%
Deonta Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 46Similar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 2
OWN 46
+6
94.0%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for 6 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
93.5%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Tyrone WilliamsSimilar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+36
93.6%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Josh Magee for 23 yds to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (13 Yards) to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
92.7%
Dallas Davis run for 4 yds to the MisSt 8Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+4
93.3%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (4 Yards) to the MisSt 4Similar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+4
77.6%
Tyreis Thomas run for 4 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 2:4489% → 89%
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
88.7%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
89.7%
Damian Williams run for 1 yd to the MisSt 43Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
90.6%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Gabe MylesSimilar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+7
89.5%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (7 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
50
0
90.7%
Brandon Holloway run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 10
50
-2
90.9%
Brandon Holloway run for 8 yds to the MisSt 42 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MisSt 48Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 12
OWN 48
0
90.5%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Gabe MylesSimilar
Q4 10:31
3RD & 12
OWN 48
+7
89.7%
Damian Williams pass complete to Fred Ross for 7 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
Q4 9:50
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
89.1%
Logan Cooke punt for 36 yds, downed at the SAlab 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5616% → 15%
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
84.0%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Kevin KutcheraSimilar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+8
84.2%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for 8 yds to the SAlab 17Similar
Q4 8:56
3RD & 2
OWN 17
0
84.5%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Josh MageeSimilar
Q4 8:48
4TH & 2
OWN 17
0
85.2%
Corliss Waitman punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19MISSED FG
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:4090% → 89%
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
90.4%
Brandon Holloway run for no gain to the MisSt 41Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+13
90.0%
Keith Mixon run for 13 yds to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
91.1%
Brandon Holloway run for 2 yds to the SAlab 44Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+23
91.0%
Damian Williams run for 23 yds to the SAlab 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
91.5%
Damian Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
91.4%
Damian Williams pass complete to Fred Ross for no gain to the SAlab 21Similar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 10
OPP 21
-8
90.7%
Damian Williams sacked by Randy Allen for a loss of 8 yards to the SAlab 29Similar
Q4 6:03
4TH & 18
OPP 29
+46
89.1%
Westin Graves 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20TD
13 plays · 71 yds · 5:0119% → 78%
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
81.3%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Gerald EverettSimilar
Q4 5:52
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
82.5%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Gerald EverettSimilar
Q4 5:41
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+37
83.7%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Kevin Kutchera for 37 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
76.3%
Tyreis Thomas run for 8 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 2
OPP 26
-5
75.4%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 31Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+4
75.1%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Xavier Johnson for 4 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q4 3:36
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+19
82.3%
Dallas Davis run for 19 yds to the MisSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-4
80.4%
Xavier Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 12Similar
Q4 2:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+4
81.1%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Tyrone Williams for 4 yds to the MisSt 8Similar
Q4 1:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
81.3%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (4 Yards) to the MisSt 4Similar
Q4 0:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
22.5%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for 4 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21MISSED FG
13 plays · 54 yds · 0:4044% → 33%
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
43.7%
Damian Williams pass complete to Donald Gray for 14 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
48.7%
Brandon Holloway run for 8 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 2
OPP 43
-1
49.8%
Damian Williams pass complete to Fred Ross for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 44Similar
Q4 0:34
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+8
47.3%
Damian Williams pass complete to Donald Gray for 8 yds to the SAlab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
48.5%
Damian Williams pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 4 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+13
58.4%
Damian Williams run for 13 yds to the SAlab 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
58.6%
Damian Williams run for 2 yds to the SAlab 17Similar
Q4 0:09
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+6
49.5%
Damian Williams run for 6 yds to the SAlab 11Similar
Q4 0:06
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+38
33.1%
Westin Graves 28 yd FG MISSED SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (10 Yards) to the SAlab 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q4 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
8.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:57
Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for 4 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)
-56.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:04
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 8
-25.1
TD · Q4 12:51
Tyreis Thomas run for 4 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)
-15.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com