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USM

Southern Miss 44 at Kentucky 35

UK
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2016 · Kroger Field
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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:37 · Grant McKinniss punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Allenzae Staggers at the SoMis 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 133Pregame prior+9.0Home team on offense+5.3Score differential+0.7Garbage-time factor+2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:55: Drew Barker pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 53 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +8.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 2:46: Parker Shaunfield 31 yd FG GOOD — UK win probability +15.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:45: Nick Mullens pass complete to Julian Allen for 18 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +10.9 pts (now 29%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:01: Nick Mullens run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +21.5 pts (now 51%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 10:30: Parker Shaunfield 49 yd FG GOOD — USM win probability +16.2 pts (now 68%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 5 of 6USM made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 14:55UK 4th & 8 at UK 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:25UK 4th & 2 at USM 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    67.8%−0.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    67.1%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:49USM 4th & 20 at USM 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−0.7
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:03USM 4th & 15 at USM 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−0.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00USM 4th & 12 at USM 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−1.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:51UK 4th & 11 at USM 49, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:33UK 4th & 3 at UK 40, up 14
    Close callPunted · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.4%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:46USM 4th & 3 at UK 13, down 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.9%−0.5
    85% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−4.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:37UK 4th & 21 at UK 21, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−5.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:01USM 4th & 1 at UK 1, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    27.1%−4.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    16.5%−14.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:30USM 4th & 14 at UK 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−4.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    53.4%−2.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:23UK 4th & 17 at UK 35, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−4.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:24USM 4th & 3 at UK 8, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.4%−1.3
    90% to make
    Punt
    78.0%−9.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:07USM 4th & 20 at UK 43, up 9
    Numbers favored punt by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.4%−1.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    91.2%−0.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    91.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 5 of 5USM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:37USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:09UK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:03UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:25UK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:55UK Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:56UK Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:26USM Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 10:36USM Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 6:45USM Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 1:01USM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UKDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
74.3%
Drew Barker pass incomplete, broken up by Jerry McCorveySimilar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-2
74.3%
Jojo Kemp run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 21Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 12
OWN 21
+4
74.3%
Drew Barker pass complete to Jojo Kemp for 4 yds to the Kent 25Similar
Q1 14:55
4TH & 8
OWN 25
0
74.3%
Grant McKinniss punt, downed at the Kent 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2TD
9 plays · 49 yds · 3:3626% → 29%
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
73.8%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+12
73.8%
Ito Smith run for 12 yds to the Kent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
73.7%
[SHOT], PENALTY USM false start (67) 5 yards to the UK37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 15
OPP 37
+6
73.8%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the Kent 31Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+4
73.7%
Nick Mullens run for 4 yds to the Kent 27Similar
Q1 13:13
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+16
73.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 16 yds to the Kent 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
73.7%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the Kent 8Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
71.2%
Ito Smith run for 8 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3DOWNS
6 plays · 39 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+41
71.6%
Drew Barker pass complete to Tavin Richardson for 41 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
72.3%
Stanley Boom Williams run for 1 yd to the SoMis 34Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+7
72.3%
Stanley Boom Williams run for 7 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 2
OPP 27
0
72.1%
Drew Barker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:25
4TH & 2
OPP 27
-10
72.0%
Tristan Yeomans pass complete to Austin MacGinnis for a loss of 10 yards to the SoMis 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
70.3%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
70.4%
George Payne run for 3 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-13
70.3%
Nick Mullens sacked by Denzil Ware for a loss of 13 yards to the SoMis 27Similar
Q1 7:49
4TH & 20
OWN 27
0
71.0%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:4070% → 73%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
70.1%
Stanley Boom Williams run for 3 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+72
72.7%
Drew Barker pass complete to Jeff Badet for 72 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
72.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 3 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 7
OWN 19
0
72.4%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete, broken up by Courtney MigginsSimilar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 7
OWN 19
-8
72.6%
Nick Mullens sacked by Josh Allen for a loss of 8 yards to the SoMis 11 Nick Mullens fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 6:03
4TH & 15
OWN 11
0
72.9%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7TD
2 plays · 58 yds · 0:3373% → 76%
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
73.0%
Drew Barker pass complete to Stanley Boom Williams for 15 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
76.4%
Drew Barker pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 43 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
75.2%
Tyre'oune Holmes run for 1 yd to the SoMis 25Similar
Q1 3:57
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+6
75.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 6 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q1 3:57
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+4
75.2%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
75.0%
Nick Mullens pass intercepted J.D. Harmon return for no gain to the Kent 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:0476% → 82%
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+33
75.8%
Drew Barker pass complete to Tavin Richardson for 33 yds to the SoMis 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
76.6%
Jojo Kemp run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 34Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 12
OPP 34
+5
76.9%
Jojo Kemp run for 5 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+20
76.6%
Drew Barker pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 11 yds to the SoMis 18 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (Dylan Bradley) to the SoMis 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
77.0%
Drew Barker pass incomplete to Jeff Badet, broken up by Cornell ArmstrongSimilar
Q1 1:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
77.0%
Drew Barker pass incomplete to Tavin RichardsonSimilar
Q1 0:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
81.6%
Drew Barker pass complete to Kayaune Ross for 9 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:2020% → 20%
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
80.0%
Ito Smith run for 11 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
79.9%
[SHOT], MULLENS, Nick pass complete to STAGGERS, A. for 15 yards to the 50 yardline, out-of-bounds, PENALTY USM ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the USM30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 15
OWN 30
-10
80.1%
Nick Mullens sacked by Jordan Jones for a loss of 10 yards to the SoMis 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 25
OWN 20
+4
80.3%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 21
OWN 24
+9
80.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 9 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 33
0
80.5%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 41 yds, downed at the Kent 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
81.7%
Stanley Boom Williams run for 16 yds to the Kent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
82.2%
Drew Barker pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 5 yds to the Kent 47Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+5
82.2%
Stanley Boom Williams run for 5 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
82.3%
Jojo Kemp run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 49Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 11
OPP 49
0
82.1%
Drew Barker pass incomplete to Jeff BadetSimilar
Q2 13:51
3RD & 11
OPP 49
0
81.8%
Drew Barker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:51
4TH & 11
OPP 49
0
81.4%
Grant McKinniss punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12INT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
81.3%
George Payne run for 11 yds to the SoMis 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
81.1%
Nick Mullens run for 4 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+5
80.9%
George Payne run for 5 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 1
OWN 38
-5
80.4%
[SHOT], PENALTY USM false start (FLEMING, Jacob) 5 yards to the USM33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+10
81.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Marquise Ricard for 10 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
80.9%
Nick Mullens pass intercepted J.D. Harmon return for no gain to the Kent 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
83.3%
Drew Barker run for 7 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 3
OWN 40
0
83.8%
Drew Barker pass incomplete to Jeff BadetSimilar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 3
OWN 40
0
83.5%
Drew Barker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:33
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
83.0%
Grant McKinniss punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14INT
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:0019% → 20%
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
81.0%
Ito Smith run for 7 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+4
80.7%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
80.8%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 4
OWN 32
0
80.5%
Nick Mullens pass intercepted Blake McClain return for no gain to the SoMis 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 15TD
3 plays · 49 yds · 0:2484% → 92%
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
84.2%
[SHOT], PENALTY UK delay of game 5 yards to the UK46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 15
OWN 46
+1
83.9%
Drew Barker pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 1 yd to the Kent 47Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 14
OWN 47
+53
92.4%
Drew Barker pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 53 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16FG
11 plays · 64 yds · 4:0223% → 15%
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
76.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 5 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+13
74.9%
George Payne run for 13 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
74.3%
George Payne run for 6 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+2
70.4%
George Payne run for 2 yds to the SoMis 49Similar
Q2 6:48
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+3
70.6%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the Kent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+28
73.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 28 yds to the Kent 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
70.8%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the Kent 15Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+2
68.9%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the Kent 13Similar
Q2 6:48
3RD & 3
OPP 13
0
69.3%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:46
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+31
85.0%
Parker Shaunfield 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 17TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 1:4289% → 94%
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+36
88.9%
Stanley Boom Williams run for 36 yds to the SoMis 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
89.2%
Stanley Boom Williams run for 4 yds to the SoMis 24Similar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+3
89.2%
Stanley Boom Williams run for 3 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q2 2:38
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+14
88.9%
Drew Barker run for 14 yds to the SoMis 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
93.9%
Jojo Kemp run for 7 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18TD
4 plays · 84 yds · 0:2210% → 8%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
90.5%
Tyre'oune Holmes run for 6 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+7
88.5%
Ito Smith run for 7 yds to the SoMis 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+71
92.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 71 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 19END OF HALF
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
89.2%
Drew Barker run for 7 yds to the Kent 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20TD
15 plays · 84 yds · 4:2012% → 18%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
88.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 8 yds to the SoMis 24Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+15
88.1%
[SHOT], MULLENS, Nick pass incomplete to STAGGERS, A., PENALTY UK pass interference 15 yards to the USM39, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
87.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Isaiah Jones, broken up by Blake McClainSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
88.2%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+15
88.0%
[SHOT], MULLENS, Nick pass incomplete to THOMPSON, D.J., PENALTY UK pass interference (J.D. Harmon) 15 yards to the UK41, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
87.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 8 yds to the Kent 33Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+6
86.3%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the Kent 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
86.3%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the Kent 24Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
86.3%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to D.J. Thompson, broken up by J.D. HarmonSimilar
Q3 11:36
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+12
88.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 12 yds to the Kent 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
87.8%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the Kent 6Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+5
87.8%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the Kent 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.6%
Nick Mullens run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 21FUMBLE
4 plays · 24 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+32
85.5%
Drew Barker pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 32 yds to the SoMis 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
85.8%
Stanley Boom Williams run for 1 yd to the SoMis 18Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+39
85.8%
Drew Barker sacked by Dylan Bradley for a loss of 7 yards to the Kent 34 Drew Barker fumbled, recovered by SoMis Xavier Thigpen , return for 0 yards , return for 39 yds to the Kent 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 2:3916% → 29%
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
84.5%
Nick Mullens run for 2 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+5
84.4%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q3 9:24
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+4
83.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Julian Allen for 4 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
83.8%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 5
50
+25
83.0%
Ito Smith run for 10 yds to the KENTUCKY 40 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Kent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
81.9%
George Payne run for 6 yds to the Kent 19Similar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+1
81.9%
George Payne run for 1 yd to the Kent 18Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+18
71.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Julian Allen for 18 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:0075% → 73%
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
74.9%
Drew Barker pass complete to Stanley Boom Williams for 1 yd to the Kent 33Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 9
OWN 33
-1
74.8%
Stanley Boom Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 32Similar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 10
OWN 32
-11
73.4%
Drew Barker sacked by Ja'Boree Poole for a loss of 11 yards to the Kent 21Similar
Q3 6:37
4TH & 21
OWN 21
0
72.7%
Grant McKinniss punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Allenzae Staggers at the SoMis 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24TD
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:3228% → 51%
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
72.0%
Nick Mullens run for 3 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+10
70.8%
Ito Smith run for 10 yds to the Kent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
70.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 14 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
68.8%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the Kent 27Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
68.7%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q3 4:33
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+22
70.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 22 yds to the Kent 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
68.7%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 8Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
68.7%
Ito Smith run for 7 yds to the Kent 1Similar
Q3 4:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
70.3%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 1 Ito Smith fumbled, forced by Courtney Miggins,Similar
Q3 1:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
48.9%
Nick Mullens run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 25INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
58.0%
Drew Barker pass complete to Jeff Badet for no gain to the Kent 48Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
57.5%
Drew Barker pass intercepted Trae Collins return for no gain to the SoMis 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 26FG
12 plays · 56 yds · 4:5450% → 68%
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
50.3%
George Payne run for 6 yds to the SoMis 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+8
49.7%
George Payne run for 8 yds to the SoMis 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
49.7%
George Payne run for 5 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+14
48.2%
George Payne run for 14 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
46.4%
George Payne run for 6 yds to the Kent 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+9
45.7%
George Payne run for 9 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
45.6%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the Kent 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+11
45.7%
Ito Smith run for 11 yds to the Kent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
43.9%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 30
-2
44.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 32
0
48.3%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to D.J. ThompsonSimilar
Q4 10:30
4TH & 14
OPP 32
+49
32.1%
Parker Shaunfield 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 0:0040% → 36%
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
39.5%
Stanley Boom Williams run for 6 yds to the Kent 36Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+6
42.1%
Stanley Boom Williams run for 6 yds to the Kent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
42.4%
Stanley Boom Williams run for 7 yds to the Kent 49Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 3
OWN 49
-10
43.9%
[SHOT], S. Williams rush for 5 yards to the USM46, out-of-bounds (ARMSTRONG, C.), PENALTY UK holding (Cole Mosier) 10 yards to the UK39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 13
OWN 39
-7
39.5%
Drew Barker sacked by Darian Yancey for a loss of 7 yards to the Kent 32Similar
Q4 10:23
3RD & 20
OWN 32
+3
36.8%
Drew Barker pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 3 yds to the Kent 35Similar
Q4 10:23
4TH & 17
OWN 35
0
36.2%
Grant McKinniss punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Allenzae Staggers at the SoMis 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 28FG
15 plays · 62 yds · 4:5676% → 94%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
23.9%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 29Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+8
24.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Julian Allen for 8 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q4 7:20
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+18
23.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 18 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
20.8%
George Payne run for 6 yds to the Kent 39Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 4
OPP 39
-1
20.8%
George Payne run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 40Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+15
17.1%
[SHOT], MULLENS, Nick pass incomplete to THOMPSON, D.J., PENALTY UK pass interference 15 yards to the UK25, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
15.8%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the Kent 24Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+9
15.8%
Ito Smith run for 9 yds to the Kent 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
15.8%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the Kent 14Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+2
15.8%
Nick Mullens run for 2 yds to the Kent 12Similar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+4
9.7%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the Kent 8Similar
Q4 2:24
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+25
6.5%
Parker Shaunfield 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 29FUMBLE
3 plays · 28 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-4
5.4%
Drew Barker sacked by Xavier Thigpen for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 33 Drew Barker fumbled, recovered by SoMis Dylan Bradley , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 30DOWNS
4 plays · 24 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+31
5.1%
TEAM run for 31 yds to the Kent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 13
OPP 36
-1
4.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 37Similar
Q4 2:07
4TH & 14
OPP 37
-6
5.1%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, delay of game (-6 Yards) to the Kent 43Similar
Q4 2:07
4TH & 20
OPP 43
0
5.2%
TEAM run for no gain to the Kent 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:01
Nick Mullens run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
-21.5
FG · Q4 10:30
Parker Shaunfield 49 yd FG GOOD
-16.2
FG · Q2 2:46
Parker Shaunfield 31 yd FG GOOD
+15.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com