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UGA

Georgia 33 at North Carolina 24

UNC
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2016 · Georgia Dome
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadUGA aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreUGA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDSAFETYFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:31 · TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Geo 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 14:46: Rodrigo Blankenship kickoff for 60 yds , T.J. Logan return for 95 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +12.3 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q3 6:34: T.J. Logan run for 21 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +15.3 pts (now 75%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:19: Jacob Eason pass complete to Isaiah McKenzie for 17 yds for a TD, (William Ham KICK) — UGA win probability +21.5 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. FG · Q4 5:27: William Ham 29 yd FG GOOD — UGA win probability +18.8 pts (now 65%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:34: Nick Chubb run for 55 yds for a TD, (William Ham KICK) — UGA win probability +27.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 5 of 8UGA made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 11:42UGA 4th & 13 at UGA 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:53UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:34UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:38UGA 4th & 12 at UGA 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−1.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:41UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:47UNC 4th & 19 at UNC 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−2.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:36UGA 4th & 1 at UGA 25, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%−1.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:11UNC 4th & 5 at UGA 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.8%
    92% to make
    Punt
    30.6%−6.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:17UGA 4th & 4 at UNC 24, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.6%−0.6
    68% to make
    Punt
    35.0%−9.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:06UGA 4th & 2 at UGA 48, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsPunted · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%−2.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:56UNC 4th & 10 at UNC 41, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−3.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:27UGA 4th & 6 at UNC 12, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−7.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    28.0%−20.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:45UNC 4th & 10 at UNC 8, down 2
    Close callPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:02UNC 4th & 5 at UGA 29, down 9
    Close callWent for it · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.9%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    8.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    5.3%−2.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UGA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 4:40UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:13UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:22UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 14:46UNC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:34UNC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:19UGA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:34UGA Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UGADrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 3:1366% → 64%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
34.2%
Nick Chubb run for 6 yds to the Geo 31Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+13
34.5%
Nick Chubb run for 13 yds to the Geo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
34.6%
Greyson Lambert sacked by Malik Carney for a loss of 2 yards to the Geo 42Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+6
34.9%
Nick Chubb run for 6 yds to the Geo 48Similar
Q1 12:47
3RD & 6
OWN 48
-7
34.9%
Greyson Lambert sacked by Des Lawrence for a loss of 7 yards to the Geo 41Similar
Q1 11:42
4TH & 13
OWN 41
+7
35.7%
Marshall Long punt for 43 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 7 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:4936% → 36%
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
35.6%
GEORGIA Penalty, Illegal Formation (5 Yards) to the NCaro 28Similar
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
35.7%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+2
35.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 2 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+4
35.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 4 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q1 9:53
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
36.2%
Tom Sheldon punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Isaiah McKenzie at the Geo 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 3TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 5:0764% → 67%
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
36.3%
Nick Chubb run for 4 yds to the Geo 25Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 6
OWN 25
-4
36.5%
Nick Chubb run for a loss of 4 yards to the Geo 21Similar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+25
37.0%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Isaiah McKenzie for 25 yds to the Geo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
36.4%
Nick Chubb run for 3 yds to the Geo 49Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+6
36.4%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Michael Chigbu for 6 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+1
36.5%
Nick Chubb run for 1 yd to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+33
36.6%
Nick Chubb run for 22 yds to the NCaro 22 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Face Mask (11 yards) (Andre Smith) to the NCaro 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
36.5%
Brendan Douglas run for 4 yds to the NCaro 7Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+5
36.6%
Brendan Douglas run for 5 yds to the NCaro 2Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
33.5%
Nick Chubb run for 2 yds for a TD, (William Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 19 yds · 2:4935% → 34%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
34.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 1 yd to the NCaro 24Similar
Q1 3:57
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+1
34.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Khris Francis for 1 yd to the NCaro 25Similar
Q1 3:36
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+5
34.2%
GEORGIA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Roquan Smith) to the NCaro 30Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+10
34.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Carl Tucker for 10 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
35.3%
GEORGIA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Davin Bellamy) to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 5
OWN 45
0
35.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+2
35.3%
Elijah Hood run for 2 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q1 2:07
3RD & 3
OWN 47
-5
35.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Ryan Switzer) to the NCaro 42Similar
Q1 1:44
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
34.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:34
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
34.0%
Tom Sheldon punt for 43 yds , Isaiah McKenzie returns for no gain to the Geo 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:4766% → 65%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
34.1%
Nick Chubb run for 4 yds to the Geo 19Similar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+2
34.1%
Nick Chubb run for 2 yds to the Geo 21Similar
Q1 0:07
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+5
34.4%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Geo 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
33.9%
Greyson Lambert sacked by Malik Carney and Nazair Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the Geo 24Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 12
OWN 24
0
34.1%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete to Isaac NautaSimilar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 12
OWN 24
0
34.6%
Greyson Lambert pass incomplete, broken up by Nazair JonesSimilar
Q2 14:38
4TH & 12
OWN 24
+13
34.9%
Marshall Long punt for 41 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 13 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6TD
6 plays · 52 yds · 1:1736% → 43%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
35.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+35
35.4%
T.J. Logan run for 35 yds to the Geo 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+16
36.7%
T.J. Logan run for 16 yds to the Geo 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
36.7%
T.J. Logan run for no gain to the Geo 1Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
43.2%
Mitch Trubisky run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 7FUMBLE
8 plays · 63 yds · 2:4560% → 62%
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
39.7%
Nick Chubb run for 2 yds to the Geo 27Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+23
39.7%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Terry Godwin for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
50
+10
38.4%
Nick Chubb run for 10 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
38.6%
Jacob Eason pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+14
38.7%
Nick Chubb run for 14 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+14
37.9%
Brendan Douglas run for 14 yds to the NCaro 12 Brendan Douglas fumbled, forced by M.J. Stewart, recovered by NCaroSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3342% → 41%
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
42.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Austin ProehlSimilar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+5
42.1%
T.J. Logan run for 5 yds to the NCaro 17Similar
Q2 9:22
3RD & 5
OWN 17
-1
41.8%
Mitch Trubisky sacked by David Marshall for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 16Similar
Q2 8:41
4TH & 6
OWN 16
0
41.4%
Tom Sheldon punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Isaiah McKenzie at the Geo 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 9TD
5 plays · 56 yds · 2:1261% → 70%
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
39.4%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Isaiah McKenzie for 13 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
38.1%
Nick Chubb run for 9 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+11
37.1%
Nick Chubb run for 11 yds to the NCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
37.1%
Nick Chubb run for 4 yds to the NCaro 19Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+19
30.0%
Brian Herrien run for 19 yds for a TD, (William Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:1932% → 31%
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+32
32.2%
Elijah Hood run for 32 yds to the Geo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
34.9%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 2 yards to the Geo 49Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 12
OPP 49
-2
33.6%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 49Similar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 14
OWN 49
0
32.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q2 4:56
4TH & 14
OWN 49
-5
31.5%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 44Similar
Q2 4:47
4TH & 19
OWN 44
0
31.2%
Tom Sheldon punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Isaiah McKenzie at the Geo 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0568% → 68%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
32.3%
Nick Chubb run for 6 yds to the Geo 22Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+3
31.8%
Nick Chubb run for 3 yds to the Geo 25Similar
Q2 3:16
3RD & 1
OWN 25
0
30.9%
Nick Chubb run for no gain to the Geo 25Similar
Q2 2:36
4TH & 1
OWN 25
+32
31.8%
Marshall Long punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Ryan Switzer at the UNC 28 for a 1ST down GEORGIA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Malkom Parrish) to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12FG
13 plays · 52 yds · 2:1934% → 38%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
33.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for no gain to the NCaro 43Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
32.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Logan for 3 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+12
32.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Carl Tucker for 12 yds to the Geo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
34.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+2
34.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Elijah Hood for 2 yds to the Geo 40Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+18
34.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Elijah Hood for 18 yds to the Geo 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+17
36.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 17 yds to the Geo 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
36.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete, broken up by Chuks AmaechiSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
36.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
34.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Bug Howard, broken up by Malkom ParrishSimilar
Q2 0:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
38.4%
Nick Weiler 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
36.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 15MISSED FG
15 plays · 51 yds · 6:2150% → 48%
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
49.9%
Nick Chubb run for 4 yds to the Geo 29Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
49.6%
Isaiah McKenzie run for 4 yds to the Geo 33Similar
Q3 13:21
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-5
49.8%
GEORGIA Penalty, False Start (Greg Pyke) to the Geo 28Similar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
51.8%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Isaiah McKenzie for 8 yds to the Geo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-15
49.6%
GEORGIA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Tyler Catalina) to the Geo 21Similar
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
51.0%
Nick Chubb run for 2 yds to the Geo 23Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+14
51.5%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Michael Chigbu for 14 yds to the Geo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
50.4%
Brian Herrien run for 8 yds to the Geo 45Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+6
48.6%
Brian Herrien run for 6 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+19
48.3%
Nick Chubb run for 19 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
47.4%
Brian Herrien run for 5 yds to the NCaro 25Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 5
OPP 25
0
47.3%
Greyson Lambert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+1
48.8%
Greyson Lambert pass complete to Charlie Woerner for 1 yd to the NCaro 24Similar
Q3 8:17
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+42
51.7%
William Ham 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3555% → 75%
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
55.3%
Mitch Trubisky run for 7 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
57.4%
Elijah Hood run for 5 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
57.1%
Elijah Hood run for 19 yds to the Geo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+23
60.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 23 yds to the Geo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
75.3%
T.J. Logan run for 21 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:0728% → 49%
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
71.8%
Brian Herrien run for 2 yds to the Geo 27Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
72.2%
Nick Chubb run for 3 yds to the Geo 30Similar
Q3 5:02
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
73.3%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Michael Chigbu for 7 yds to the Geo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
73.0%
Nick Chubb run for 2 yds to the Geo 39Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
73.0%
Jacob Eason pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:44
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+15
74.1%
Eason, Jacob pass incomplete to Stanley, Jayson, PENALTY UNC pass interference (Rene, Patrice) 15 yards to the UNC46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIA.Similar
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
71.5%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Riley RidleySimilar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
71.9%
Nick Chubb run for 3 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q3 2:51
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+15
72.6%
Eason, Jacob pass incomplete, PENALTY UNC pass interference (Rene, Patrice) 15 yards to the UNC28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIA.Similar
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
70.2%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Reggie Davis for 5 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+3
70.7%
Brian Herrien run for 3 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
Q3 1:37
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+3
72.8%
Nick Chubb run for 3 yds to the NCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
51.4%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Isaiah McKenzie for 17 yds for a TD, (William Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18SF
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:2159% → 55%
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
58.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 12
-5
58.3%
Trubisky, Mitch pass complete to Proehl, Austin for 13 yards to the UNC25, PENALTY UNC ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the UNC7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 15
OWN 7
-3
57.8%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TEAM) to the NCaro 4Similar
Q3 0:48
2ND & 18
OWN 4
-4
55.4%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:2848% → 45%
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
52.2%
Terry Godwin run for 6 yds to the Geo 46Similar
Q3 0:02
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+3
51.4%
Nick Chubb run for 3 yds to the Geo 49Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 49
-1
51.3%
Nick Chubb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 48Similar
Q4 14:06
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
54.8%
Marshall Long punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 3:0060% → 59%
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
59.8%
Elijah Hood run for 5 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+3
61.6%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+4
61.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 4 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
62.7%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Jon Heck) to the NCaro 36Similar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+10
60.5%
Elijah Hood run for 10 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 5
OWN 46
0
64.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
62.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Elijah Hood for no gain to the NCaro 46Similar
Q4 11:05
4TH & 5
OWN 46
-5
60.6%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 41Similar
Q4 10:56
4TH & 10
OWN 41
+1
58.7%
Tom Sheldon punt for 43 yds , Isaiah McKenzie returns for 1 yd to the Geo 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 21FG
11 plays · 71 yds · 5:2442% → 65%
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
58.2%
Nick Chubb run for 2 yds to the Geo 19Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+9
58.8%
Nick Chubb run for 9 yds to the Geo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
57.8%
Eason, Jacob pass incomplete to Stanley, Jayson, PENALTY GEORGIA holding (Pyke, Greg) 10 yards to the GEORGIA18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:17
1ST & 20
OWN 18
+7
58.8%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Brendan Douglas for 7 yds to the Geo 25Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 13
OWN 25
+8
59.4%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Isaiah McKenzie for 8 yds to the Geo 33Similar
Q4 7:55
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+51
59.1%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Isaiah McKenzie for 51 yds to the NCaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
51.6%
Chubb, Nick rush for 3 yards to the UNC13, PENALTY GEORGIA illegal formation 5 yards to the UNC21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:48
1ST & 15
OPP 21
-7
50.1%
Jacob Eason sacked by Mikey Bart for a loss of 7 yards to the NCaro 28Similar
Q4 6:17
2ND & 22
OPP 28
+16
53.6%
Brian Herrien run for 16 yds to the NCaro 12Similar
Q4 5:31
3RD & 6
OPP 12
0
53.7%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Terry GodwinSimilar
Q4 5:27
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+29
34.9%
William Ham 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:3144% → 38%
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
44.1%
Elijah Hood run for no gain to the NCaro 8Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+9
41.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 9 yds to the NCaro 17Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 1
OWN 17
-9
40.3%
Trubisky, Mitch pass complete to Switzer, Ryan for 13 yards to the UNC30, PENALTY UNC pass interference 9 yards to the UNC8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 10
OWN 8
0
39.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q4 3:45
4TH & 10
OWN 8
-3
38.0%
Tom Sheldon punt for 44 yds , Isaiah McKenzie returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Geo 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 23TD
1 play · 55 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
10.1%
Nick Chubb run for 55 yds for a TD, (William Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24DOWNS
16 plays · 49 yds · 2:2011% → 6%
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
11.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Mack Hollins for 6 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 4
OWN 28
0
10.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Austin ProehlSimilar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+6
7.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 6 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
8.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 9 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+2
9.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Elijah Hood for 2 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
8.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 11 yds to the Geo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
8.8%
Trubisky, Mitch pass complete to Switzer, Ryan for 8 yards to the GEORGIA36, PENALTY UNC holding 10 yards to the UNC46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 20
OWN 46
+10
7.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 10 yds to the Geo 44Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+10
8.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Elijah Hood for 10 yds to the Geo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
10.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
10.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Logan for no gain to the Geo 34Similar
Q4 1:16
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
7.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:11
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+5
5.8%
Trubisky, Mitch pass incomplete to Howard, Bug, PENALTY GEORGIA offside 5 yards to the GEORGIA29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:02
4TH & 5
OPP 29
0
6.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 25END OF GAME
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:2995% → 95%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
5.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 28Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 11
OWN 28
-2
5.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Geo 26Similar
Q4 0:31
3RD & 13
OWN 26
-3
5.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Geo 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:34
Nick Chubb run for 55 yds for a TD, (William Ham KICK)
-27.9
TD · Q3 1:19
Jacob Eason pass complete to Isaiah McKenzie for 17 yds for a TD, (William Ham KICK)
-21.5
FG · Q4 5:27
William Ham 29 yd FG GOOD
-18.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com