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LT

Louisiana Tech 20 at Arkansas 21

ARK
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2016 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:09 · Gerald Shouse punt for 32 yds, downed at the Ark 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 35Pregame prior+35.0Home team on offense−1.3Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:40: Jarred Craft run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +9.0 pts (now 25%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 11:15: Jonathan Barnes 43 yd FG GOOD — LT win probability +5.4 pts (now 29%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 4:58: Jonathan Barnes 20 yd FG GOOD — LT win probability +7.8 pts (now 47%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:37: Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK) — ARK win probability +27.9 pts (now 71%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:00: TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 38 — ARK win probability +16.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 8 of 8LT made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 1:09LT 4th & 2 at LT 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:23ARK 4th & 14 at LT 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:05LT 4th & 4 at LT 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:21ARK 4th & 7 at LT 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    83.3%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    83.1%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:37ARK 4th & 1 at ARK 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%−0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.2%
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:15LT 4th & 10 at ARK 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    20.2%−5.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:43ARK 4th & 25 at ARK 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%−3.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:10ARK 4th & 25 at ARK 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−3.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:58LT 4th & 3 at ARK 3, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.2%−2.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    25.6%−14.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:22ARK 4th & 9 at ARK 36, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−2.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:14LT 4th & 7 at ARK 23, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−1.0
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    44.6%−12.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:37ARK 4th & 4 at LT 4, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    35.6%−3.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    19.8%−19.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:35LT 4th & 20 at LT 38, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−5.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:22ARK 4th & 1 at ARK 37, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    72.5%−6.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3LT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:11LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:52ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:01ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:40LT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:37ARK Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−1.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1INT
10 plays · 18 yds · 3:0392% → 91%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.8%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
91.5%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 10 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
91.5%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
91.4%
Jared Cornelius run for 8 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+6
91.4%
Kody Walker run for 6 yds to the LaTch 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-8
91.3%
Austin Allen sacked by Secdrick Cooper for a loss of 8 yards to the Ark 43Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 18
OWN 43
0
91.0%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 18
OWN 43
0
90.9%
Austin Allen pass intercepted Xavier Woods return for no gain to the LaTch 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2TD
8 plays · 62 yds · 2:279% → 11%
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
90.8%
J'mar Smith pass complete to Jarred Craft for 2 yds to the LaTch 40Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+11
90.5%
J'mar Smith pass complete to Trent Taylor for 11 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+19
90.4%
J'mar Smith pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 19 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
90.3%
J'mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
90.3%
J'mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+16
90.3%
J'mar Smith pass complete to Trent Taylor for 16 yds to the Ark 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
90.0%
Jarred Craft run for 5 yds to the Ark 9Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+9
89.1%
J'mar Smith run for 9 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 6:0389% → 89%
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
89.1%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 3 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
89.0%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 8 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
88.6%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 2 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+11
88.4%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 11 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
88.3%
Kody Walker run for 4 yds to the LaTch 47Similar
Q1 5:51
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+16
88.0%
Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 16 yds to the LaTch 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
87.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 12 yds to the LaTch 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
87.6%
Kody Walker run for 7 yds to the LaTch 12Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+1
87.2%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 1 yd to the LaTch 11Similar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+5
86.7%
Jared Cornelius run for 5 yds to the LaTch 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
88.8%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 6 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2813% → 13%
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
87.4%
J'mar Smith pass incomplete to Dalton SantosSimilar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
87.3%
J'mar Smith pass complete to Trent Taylor for 6 yds to the LaTch 43Similar
Q1 1:51
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+2
86.8%
J'mar Smith run for 2 yds to the LaTch 45Similar
Q1 1:09
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
86.8%
Gerald Shouse punt for 32 yds, downed at the Ark 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 3:2487% → 86%
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
87.3%
Kody Walker run for 1 yd to the Ark 24Similar
Q1 0:17
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+16
87.1%
Austin Allen pass complete to Rawleigh Williams III for 16 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
87.5%
Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 17 yds to the LaTch 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
87.6%
Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 4 yds to the LaTch 39Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 6
OPP 39
-2
87.3%
Rawleigh Williams III run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 41Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 8
OPP 41
-6
86.8%
Austin Allen sacked by Xavier Woods for a loss of 6 yards to the LaTch 47Similar
Q2 12:23
4TH & 14
OPP 47
0
85.5%
Toby Baker punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Trent Taylor at the LaTch 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5615% → 15%
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
85.4%
Boston Scott run for 2 yds to the LaTch 10Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+4
85.2%
J'mar Smith pass complete to Conner Smith for 4 yds to the LaTch 14Similar
Q2 11:14
3RD & 4
OWN 14
0
85.2%
J'mar Smith pass incomplete to Boston ScottSimilar
Q2 11:05
4TH & 4
OWN 14
0
85.5%
Gerald Shouse punt for 49 yds , Jared Cornelius returns for no gain to the Ark 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7TD
9 plays · 63 yds · 3:5486% → 89%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
85.7%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 14 yds to the LaTch 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
86.2%
Austin Allen pass complete to Austin Cantrell for 5 yds to the LaTch 44Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+6
86.1%
Austin Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 6 yds to the LaTch 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
86.0%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Drew MorganSimilar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
85.9%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jared CorneliusSimilar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+3
85.3%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 3 yds Drew Morgan fumbled, forced by Prince Sam, recovered by ArkSimilar
Q2 8:21
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+18
84.6%
Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 18 yds to the LaTch 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
85.5%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 4 yds to the LaTch 13Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+13
89.1%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 13 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
87.7%
J'mar Smith pass intercepted Dre Greenlaw return for 3 yds to the LaTch 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9INT
5 plays · 14 yds · 2:0189% → 88%
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
89.0%
Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the LaTch 35Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+18
88.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 18 yds to the LaTch 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
88.9%
Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 19Similar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 12
OPP 19
-5
88.8%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the LaTch 24Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 17
OPP 24
+34
88.4%
Austin Allen pass intercepted Prince Sam return for 34 yds to the Ark 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10TD
7 plays · 48 yds · 2:4014% → 25%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
85.7%
J'mar Smith run for 2 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 8
OPP 46
-1
85.6%
Carlos Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 47Similar
Q2 3:37
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+19
86.2%
J'mar Smith pass complete to Trent Taylor for 19 yds to the Ark 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
84.4%
Jarred Craft run for 3 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+24
84.1%
J'mar Smith pass complete to Marcus Gaines for 24 yds to the Ark 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
83.6%
Jarred Craft run for no gain to the Ark 1Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.6%
Jarred Craft run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:3580% → 79%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
80.3%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 2 yds to the Ark 24Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+5
80.0%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 5 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+2
79.5%
Austin Allen pass complete to Rawleigh Williams III for 2 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q2 0:37
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
79.1%
Toby Baker punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Trent Taylor at the LaTch 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12DOWNS
5 plays · 37 yds · 0:2023% → 26%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
77.2%
J'mar Smith pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 6 yds to the LaTch 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
76.6%
J'mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+31
77.0%
Jarred Craft run for 31 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+54
73.8%
Jonathan Barnes 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 13FG
10 plays · 38 yds · 3:2923% → 29%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
76.7%
Jarred Craft run for 15 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
74.6%
J'mar Smith pass complete to Trent Taylor for 10 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
74.3%
J'mar Smith pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 5 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+8
72.8%
J'mar Smith pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 8 yds to the Ark 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
72.5%
J'mar Smith pass incomplete to Jarred CraftSimilar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
72.6%
Jarred Craft run for no gain to the Ark 26Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 10
OPP 26
-5
73.4%
J'mar Smith sacked by Taiwan Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 31Similar
Q3 11:29
4TH & 15
OPP 31
+5
76.5%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Ark 26Similar
Q3 11:15
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+43
71.1%
Jonathan Barnes 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -15 yds · 1:5772% → 68%
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
71.5%
Austin Allen sacked by Deldrick Canty for a loss of 8 yards to the Ark 17Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 18
OWN 17
-4
70.1%
Austin Allen sacked by Jordan Bradford for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 13Similar
Q3 9:43
3RD & 22
OWN 13
-3
68.6%
Austin Allen pass complete to Rawleigh Williams III for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 10Similar
Q3 9:43
4TH & 25
OWN 10
0
68.0%
Toby Baker punt for 50 yds , Trent Taylor returns for no gain to the LaTch 10 LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Illegal Block (8 Yards) to the LaTch 32Similar
Q3 9:10
4TH & 25
OWN 10
+7
67.5%
Toby Baker punt for 53 yds , Trent Taylor returns for 7 yds to the LaTch 17 LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the LaTch 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 15FG
9 plays · 63 yds · 4:0133% → 47%
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
67.1%
J'mar Smith pass complete to Trent Taylor for 6 yds to the LaTch 40Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+1
64.7%
Jarred Craft run for 1 yd to the LaTch 41Similar
Q3 7:41
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+26
64.5%
J'mar Smith pass complete to Jarred Craft for 26 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
61.8%
Jarred Craft run for 1 yd to the Ark 32Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+24
61.0%
J'mar Smith pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 24 yds to the Ark 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
59.9%
Jarred Craft run for 1 yd to the Ark 7Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
59.6%
J'mar Smith pass incomplete to Conner SmithSimilar
Q3 5:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
61.0%
J'mar Smith run for 4 yds to the Ark 3Similar
Q3 4:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
53.2%
Jonathan Barnes 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:2358% → 52%
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.9%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
57.3%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 10 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
57.5%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 1 yd to the Ark 36Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
56.7%
Jared Cornelius run for no gain to the Ark 36Similar
Q3 2:38
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
54.4%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Hayden JohnsonSimilar
Q3 2:22
4TH & 9
OWN 36
+32
52.2%
Toby Baker punt for 55 yds , Trent Taylor returns for 32 yds to the LaTch 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 17MISSED FG
7 plays · 36 yds · 2:5853% → 56%
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
47.1%
J'mar Smith pass complete to Kam McKnight for 7 yds to the LaTch 48Similar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+6
44.5%
Jarred Craft run for 6 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+20
43.2%
J'mar Smith pass complete to Trent Taylor for 5 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the Ark 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
41.0%
J'mar Smith sacked by Randy Ramsey for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 31 J'mar Smith fumbled, recovered by LaTch J'mar Smith , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 15
OPP 31
+8
41.7%
J'mar Smith run for 8 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 7
OPP 23
0
42.0%
J'mar Smith pass incomplete to TEAMSimilar
Q4 14:14
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+39
44.1%
Jonathan Barnes 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18TD
15 plays · 67 yds · 7:2551% → 71%
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
50.5%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 7 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+13
52.2%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 13 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
52.6%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 10 yds to the LaTch 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
53.9%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 7 yds to the LaTch 40Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 3
OPP 40
0
53.3%
Rawleigh Williams III run for no gain to the LaTch 40Similar
Q4 11:14
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+5
49.2%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 5 yds to the LaTch 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-3
51.4%
Rawleigh Williams III run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaTch 38Similar
Q4 10:03
2ND & 13
OPP 38
+18
45.3%
Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 18 yds to the LaTch 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
49.8%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 5 yds to the LaTch 15Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 5
OPP 15
-5
48.9%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the LaTch 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
-10
47.9%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the LaTch 20Similar
Q4 8:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
0
47.7%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Dominique ReedSimilar
Q4 8:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 20
+13
46.8%
Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 13 yds to the LaTch 7Similar
Q4 7:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
42.6%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 3 yds to the LaTch 4Similar
Q4 6:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
70.5%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 13 yds · 2:5334% → 33%
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.8%
J'mar Smith pass incomplete to Carlos HendersonSimilar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
65.8%
Jarred Craft run for 4 yds to the LaTch 29Similar
Q4 5:36
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
66.2%
J'mar Smith pass complete to Carlos Henderson for 9 yds to the LaTch 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
62.0%
J'mar Smith pass complete to Trent Taylor for 5 yds to the LaTch 43Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+5
59.6%
J'mar Smith run for 5 yds to the LaTch 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
58.8%
J'mar Smith pass incomplete to TEAMSimilar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
59.8%
J'mar Smith pass incomplete to Rhashid BonnetteSimilar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 10
OWN 48
-10
61.7%
J'mar Smith sacked by Deatrich Wise Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the LaTch 38Similar
Q4 3:35
4TH & 20
OWN 38
0
66.7%
Gerald Shouse punt for 34 yds, downed at the Ark 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20END OF GAME
12 plays · 10 yds · 3:2968% → 95%
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
68.3%
Kody Walker run for 3 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+5
72.5%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Ark 36Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 2
OWN 36
0
74.5%
Rawleigh Williams III run for no gain to the Ark 36Similar
Q4 1:27
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+1
78.8%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 1 yd to the Ark 37Similar
Q4 1:22
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+3
75.0%
Kody Walker run for 3 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
79.2%
Rawleigh Williams III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 39Similar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+1
80.5%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 1 yd to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 40
-2
94.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:37
Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)
+27.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:00
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 38
+16
TD · Q2 1:40
Jarred Craft run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)
-9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com