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USC

USC 6 at Alabama 52

ALA
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2016 · AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:00 · Chris Tilbey punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Calvin Ridley at the Alab 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 110Home team on offense+29.1Score differential+26.2Pregame prior+9.0Blowout margin+12.7Garbage-time factor+9.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:46: Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 39 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +4.2 pts (now 73%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 3:26: Adam Griffith 29 yd FG GOOD — ALA win probability +3.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:37: Marlon Humphrey 18 Yd Interception Return (Adam Griffith Kick) — ALA win probability +7.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:43: Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 71 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +8.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:55: Jalen Hurts run for 7 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +3.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7USC made the numbers' call on 11 of 14
  1. Q1 12:28USC 4th & 6 at ALA 29, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.9%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    26.6%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:23ALA 4th & 20 at ALA 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−0.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:08USC 4th & 7 at ALA 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    29.0%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    28.9%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:25ALA 4th & 3 at ALA 44, down 3
    Close callPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:44USC 4th & 10 at USC 2, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:08USC 4th & 13 at USC 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−0.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:12ALA 4th & 9 at ALA 11, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:22USC 4th & 18 at USC 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%−1.6
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:26ALA 4th & 6 at USC 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:02USC 4th & 10 at USC 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:25USC 4th & 6 at USC 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%
    average punt
  12. Q2 3:26ALA 4th & 6 at USC 11, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.6%
    87% to make
    Punt
    68.0%−3.6
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:37USC 4th & 10 at ALA 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    15.9%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:47USC 4th & 13 at USC 30, down 21
    Numbers favored punt by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%−1.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:00USC 4th & 8 at USC 22, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:10USC 4th & 9 at USC 43, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:34USC 4th & 14 at ALA 23, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:11ALA 4th & 2 at USC 2, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:19USC 4th & 8 at USC 27, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:32USC 4th & 9 at ALA 43, down 46
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:08ALA 4th & 13 at ALA 16, up 46
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q2 7:46ALA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:37ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:43ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:55ALA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:53ALA Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:11ALA Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:25ALA Touchdown, up 45 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1FG
7 plays · 46 yds · 2:3228% → 29%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
72.1%
Max Browne pass complete to Justin Davis for 6 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+36
72.0%
Max Browne pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 36 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
71.9%
Justin Davis run for 1 yd to the Alab 32Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 9
OPP 32
-3
71.7%
Max Browne pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 35Similar
Q1 13:14
3RD & 12
OPP 35
+6
71.7%
Max Browne pass complete to Taylor McNamara for 6 yds to the Alab 29Similar
Q1 12:28
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+47
71.5%
Matt Boermeester 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:5872% → 71%
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+17
71.5%
ArDarius Stewart run for 17 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
71.6%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+1
71.4%
Damien Harris run for 1 yd to the Alab 42Similar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 9
OWN 42
-11
71.2%
Blake Barnett sacked by Michael Hutchings for a loss of 11 yards to the Alab 31Similar
Q1 10:23
4TH & 20
OWN 31
0
70.6%
JK Scott punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Adoree' Jackson at the USC 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3DOWNS
13 plays · 44 yds · 4:1529% → 30%
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
71.0%
Justin Davis run for 3 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+4
70.8%
Max Browne pass complete to Taylor McNamara for 4 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+7
70.9%
Max Browne pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 7 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
70.6%
USC Penalty, False Start (Darreus Rogers) to the USC 28Similar
Q1 8:31
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+9
70.6%
Max Browne pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 9 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 6
OWN 37
-4
70.2%
Justin Davis run for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 33Similar
Q1 7:31
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+17
70.4%
Max Browne run for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
50
+15
69.5%
Browne, Max pass incomplete to Smith-Schuster, JuJu, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Fitzpatrick, Minkah) 15 yards to the ALABAMA35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC.Similar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
69.2%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for no gain to the Alab 35Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
69.1%
Max Browne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+3
69.4%
Max Browne pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 3 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q1 6:08
4TH & 7
OPP 32
-5
69.7%
Max Browne sacked by Ryan Anderson for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4370% → 70%
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
69.8%
Blake Barnett pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 1 yd to the Alab 38Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+4
69.7%
Bo Scarbrough run for 4 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+2
69.8%
Blake Barnett pass complete to O.J. Howard for 2 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q1 4:25
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
69.5%
JK Scott punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5FUMBLE
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:4130% → 30%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
69.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the USC 3Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 9
OWN 3
0
69.5%
Max Browne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:31
3RD & 9
OWN 3
0
69.7%
Ronald Jones II run for no gain to the USC 3Similar
Q1 2:58
4TH & 9
OWN 3
-1
69.9%
USC Penalty, Delay of Game (Chris Tilbey) to the USC 2Similar
Q1 2:44
4TH & 10
OWN 2
0
69.9%
Chris Tilbey punt for 52 yds , Calvin Ridley returns for no gain to the USC 49 Calvin Ridley fumbled, recovered by Alab Calvin Ridley , return for 5 yds to the USC 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6FUMBLE
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
70.0%
Jalen Hurts run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 48 Jalen Hurts fumbled, recovered by USC Cameron SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2932% → 31%
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
68.2%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the Alab 46Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 8
OPP 46
-5
68.0%
Max Browne sacked by Jonathan Allen for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 49Similar
Q1 1:20
3RD & 13
OWN 49
0
68.7%
Max Browne pass incomplete to Ronald Jones IISimilar
Q1 1:08
4TH & 13
OWN 49
0
69.3%
Chris Tilbey punt for 41 yds, downed at the Alab 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:5669% → 67%
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
68.5%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 9Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+2
68.1%
Bo Scarbrough run for 2 yds to the Alab 11Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 11
0
67.7%
Jalen Hurts run for no gain to the Alab 11Similar
Q2 14:12
4TH & 9
OWN 11
0
67.3%
JK Scott punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Adoree' Jackson at the USC 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:5033% → 32%
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
67.0%
Justin Davis run for 3 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 7
OWN 45
-10
66.9%
Max Browne sacked by Jonathan Allen for a loss of 10 yards to the USC 35Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 17
OWN 35
-1
68.4%
Justin Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 34Similar
Q2 12:22
4TH & 18
OWN 34
0
68.5%
Chris Tilbey punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 2:5668% → 67%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.6%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
67.5%
Damien Harris run for no gain to the Alab 25Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+10
66.7%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 10 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
67.5%
Jalen Hurts run for 9 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+5
68.9%
Damien Harris run for 5 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
68.8%
Damien Harris run for 4 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
68.7%
Jalen Hurts pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 6
OPP 47
0
68.3%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Gehrig DieterSimilar
Q2 9:26
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
67.3%
JK Scott punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Adoree' Jackson at the USC 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2433% → 32%
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
67.0%
Max Browne pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
67.1%
Max Browne pass incomplete to Darreus RogersSimilar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 10
OWN 15
0
67.4%
Max Browne pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q2 9:02
4TH & 10
OWN 15
+21
67.9%
Chris Tilbey punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ALABAMA 49 USC Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Ajene Harris) to the USC 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12TD
3 plays · 36 yds · 1:1669% → 73%
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
68.6%
B.J. Emmons run for no gain to the USC 36Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-3
68.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to O.J. Howard for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 39Similar
Q2 7:46
3RD & 13
OPP 39
+39
72.6%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 39 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2127% → 26%
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
73.3%
Max Browne pass complete to Ronald Jones II for 2 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
73.3%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 2 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
73.7%
Max Browne pass incomplete to Darreus RogersSimilar
Q2 6:25
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
74.4%
Chris Tilbey punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Calvin Ridley at the Alab 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14FG
7 plays · 64 yds · 2:5972% → 78%
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
72.2%
Damien Harris run for 11 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
72.8%
Jalen Hurts run for 3 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+46
73.1%
Damien Harris run for 46 yds to the USC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
74.6%
Damien Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 16Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+2
74.6%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 2 yds to the USC 14Similar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+3
73.8%
Jalen Hurts run for 3 yds to the USC 11Similar
Q2 3:26
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+29
77.5%
Adam Griffith 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15INT TD
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:2922% → 15%
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
77.6%
Justin Davis run for 2 yds to the USC 12Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+18
84.8%
Marlon Humphrey 18 Yd Interception Return (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:3616% → 15%
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
84.5%
Max Browne pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 16 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
83.4%
Max Browne pass incomplete to Darreus RogersSimilar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
84.2%
Max Browne pass incomplete to Deontay BurnettSimilar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
84.7%
Max Browne pass incomplete to Steven Mitchell Jr.Similar
Q2 1:37
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
85.2%
Chris Tilbey punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Calvin Ridley at the Alab 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17END OF HALF
3 plays · 2 yds · 1:3785% → 86%
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
85.2%
Bo Scarbrough run for 3 yds to the Alab 16Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 7
OWN 16
0
85.7%
Bo Scarbrough run for no gain to the Alab 16Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 16
-1
86.2%
Damien Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1785% → 94%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
85.1%
Joshua Jacobs run for 5 yds to the Alab 30Similar
Q3 14:34
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
85.3%
Jalen Hurts run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 29Similar
Q3 13:43
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+71
94.2%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 71 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19FUMBLE
6 plays · -20 yds · 0:487% → 6%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
92.8%
USC Penalty, False Start (Zach Banner) to the USC 28Similar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+2
93.3%
Max Browne pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 2 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 13
OWN 30
0
93.5%
Max Browne pass incomplete to Steven Mitchell Jr.Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 13
OWN 30
0
93.6%
Max Browne pass incomplete to Taylor McNamaraSimilar
Q3 12:47
4TH & 13
OWN 30
-15
93.7%
Chris Tilbey run for a loss of 15 yards to the USC 13 Chris Tilbey fumbled, recovered by USC Chris TilbeySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20TD
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:5295% → 99%
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
95.0%
Bo Scarbrough run for 1 yd to the USC 12Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+8
95.2%
Jalen Hurts run for 8 yds to the USC 4Similar
Q3 11:46
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+2
95.2%
Bo Scarbrough run for 2 yds to the USC 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
95.4%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Cam Robinson) to the USC 7Similar
Q3 10:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.0%
Jalen Hurts run for 7 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:551% → 1%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
98.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 4 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-3
99.1%
Ronald Jones II run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 21Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+1
99.0%
Sam Darnold run for 1 yd to the USC 22Similar
Q3 9:00
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
99.2%
Chris Tilbey punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Calvin Ridley at the Alab 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5799% → 99%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.3%
Jalen Hurts pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-5
99.3%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Lester Cotton) to the Alab 33Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+5
99.3%
Joshua Jacobs run for 5 yds to the Alab 38Similar
Q3 8:03
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
99.3%
Jalen Hurts pass intercepted Iman Marshall return for no gain to the USC 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:531% → 1%
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
99.2%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+1
99.2%
Sam Darnold run for 1 yd to the USC 43Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 9
OWN 43
0
99.3%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Darreus RogersSimilar
Q3 7:10
4TH & 9
OWN 43
+41
99.3%
Chris Tilbey punt for 41 yds , Calvin Ridley returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24TD
3 plays · 85 yds · 1:17100% → 100%
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
99.5%
B.J. Emmons run for 4 yds to the Alab 21 B.J. Emmons fumbled, forced by Ajene Harris, recovered by Alab B.J. EmmonsSimilar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+73
99.5%
Damien Harris run for 73 yds to the USC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.5%
Jalen Hurts run for 6 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 25FG
10 plays · 56 yds · 3:191% → 0%
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+46
99.5%
Ronald Jones II run for 46 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
99.5%
Max Browne pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 9 yds to the Alab 24Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 1
OPP 24
-1
99.5%
Ronald Jones II run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 25Similar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+6
99.6%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 6 yds to the Alab 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
99.6%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 6 yds to the Alab 13Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 4
OPP 13
-10
99.6%
Ware, Aca'Cedric rush for no gain to the ALABAMA13, PENALTY USC holding (Smith-Schuster, JuJu) 10 yards to the ALABAMA23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 14
OPP 23
0
99.6%
Max Browne pass incomplete to Steven Mitchell Jr.Similar
Q3 2:43
3RD & 14
OPP 23
0
99.7%
Max Browne pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q3 2:34
4TH & 14
OPP 23
+41
99.6%
Matt Boermeester 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 26TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 4:23100% → 100%
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
99.6%
Blake Barnett sacked by Rasheem Green for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 34Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+9
99.6%
Bo Scarbrough run for 9 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q3 1:33
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
99.7%
Bo Scarbrough run for 3 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
99.7%
Bo Scarbrough run for 6 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+40
99.7%
Blake Barnett pass complete to O.J. Howard for 40 yds to the USC 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
99.7%
Blake Barnett run for 2 yds to the USC 6Similar
Q4 14:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
99.7%
Bo Scarbrough run for 4 yds to the USC 2Similar
Q4 13:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.8%
Blake Barnett run for no gain to the USC 2Similar
Q4 13:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.8%
Bo Scarbrough run for 2 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:520% → 0%
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.8%
Justin Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 23Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+5
99.9%
Max Browne pass complete to Tyler Petite for 5 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-1
99.9%
Max Browne pass complete to Justin Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 27Similar
Q4 11:19
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Chris Tilbey punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 28TD
4 plays · 67 yds · 1:54100% → 100%
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
99.9%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Cam Sims for 12 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
99.9%
Joshua Jacobs run for 8 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+2
99.9%
Joshua Jacobs run for 2 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
99.9%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 45 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 29PUNT
11 plays · 32 yds · 2:530% → 0%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 8 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
99.9%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 3 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.9%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 5 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+11
99.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 11 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
99.9%
Darnold, Sam pass incomplete to Whitney, Isaac, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Averett, Anthony) 4 yards to the ALABAMA44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC.Similar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
99.9%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the Alab 43Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Jalen GreeneSimilar
Q4 6:44
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Ronald Jones IISimilar
Q4 6:32
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Chris Tilbey punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Trevon Diggs at the Alab 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 30PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 4:24100% → 100%
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
99.9%
B.J. Emmons run for 6 yds to the Alab 14Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+3
99.9%
B.J. Emmons run for 3 yds to the Alab 17Similar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+2
99.9%
B.J. Emmons run for 2 yds to the Alab 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
99.9%
B.J. Emmons run for 1 yd to the Alab 20Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 9
OWN 20
-9
99.9%
Cooper Bateman sacked by Porter Gustin for a loss of 9 yards to the Alab 11Similar
Q4 2:57
3RD & 18
OWN 11
+5
100.0%
Cooper Bateman pass complete to Brandon Greene for 5 yds to the Alab 16Similar
Q4 2:08
4TH & 13
OWN 16
+15
100.0%
JK Scott punt for 52 yds , Deontay Burnett returns for 15 yds to the USC 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 31END OF GAME
4 plays · 18 yds · 2:080% → 0%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
100.0%
Dominic Davis run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 7
50
+6
100.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Dominic Davis for 6 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+2
100.0%
Dominic Davis run for 2 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
100.0%
Sam Darnold run for 7 yds to the Alab 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:43
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 71 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)
+8.9
TD · Q2 2:37
Marlon Humphrey 18 Yd Interception Return (Adam Griffith Kick)
+7.2
TD · Q2 7:46
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 39 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)
+4.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com