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SC

South Carolina 13 at Vanderbilt 10

VAN
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2016 · FirstBank Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadSC aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 7:30: Deebo Samuel run for 8 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK) — SC win probability +31.4 pts (now 60%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:27: Perry Orth pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 16 yds to the SCaro 43 for a 1ST down — SC win probability +10.9 pts (now 53%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 0:35: Elliott Fry 55 yd FG GOOD — SC win probability +39.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:30: Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent Sherfield — VAN win probability +14.0 pts (now 22%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:13: VANDERBILT Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Vandy 10 — SC win probability +9.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 7 of 10SC made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 11:46SC 4th & 16 at SC 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:32VAN 4th & 7 at VAN 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:09VAN 4th & 13 at SC 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.5%
    79% to make
    Punt
    42.0%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:34SC 4th & 13 at SC 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−0.8
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:34SC 4th & 8 at VAN 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    44.5%−0.9
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:34VAN 4th & 2 at VAN 15, up 10
    Close callPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:44VAN 4th & 18 at VAN 10, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%−3.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:50SC 4th & 1 at VAN 44, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    35.4%−3.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%−2.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:30VAN 4th & 7 at VAN 10, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−1.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:25SC 4th & 9 at VAN 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    34.4%−0.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:20VAN 4th & 3 at VAN 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:26SC 4th & 9 at SC 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−1.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:03VAN 4th & 3 at VAN 40, up 10
    Close callPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%−0.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:16SC 4th & 11 at VAN 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−1.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.3%
    54% to make
    Punt
    23.5%−1.8
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:51VAN 4th & 9 at SC 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:20SC 4th & 3 at SC 48, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%−1.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:23VAN 4th & 13 at SC 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.7%−2.6
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:44VAN 4th & 2 at SC 26, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.2%−4.4
    64% to make
    Punt
    32.6%−26.0
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:35SC 4th & 7 at VAN 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−2.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.6%
    40% to make
    Punt
    45.1%−9.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1SC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 14:28VAN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 7:30SC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SCDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 5 yds · 3:0962% → 60%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
38.5%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SCaro 15Similar
Q1 14:21
1ST & 20
OWN 15
-4
38.7%
Perry Orth run for a loss of 4 yards to the SCaro 11Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 24
OWN 11
+14
38.8%
A.J. Turner run for 14 yds to the SCaro 25Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
39.0%
Perry Orth pass complete to A.J. Turner for 12 yds to the SCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-6
39.0%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-6 Yards) to the SCaro 31Similar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 16
OWN 31
-5
39.0%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SCaro 26Similar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 21
OWN 26
+1
39.2%
A.J. Turner run for 1 yd to the SCaro 27Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 19
OWN 27
0
39.3%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Jamari SmithSimilar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 19
OWN 27
+3
39.5%
Perry Orth run for 3 yds to the SCaro 30Similar
Q1 11:46
4TH & 16
OWN 30
+3
39.8%
Sean Kelly punt for 41 yds , C.J. Duncan returns for 3 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2FUMBLE
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:0140% → 40%
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
39.8%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 35Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+5
40.0%
Ralph Webb run for 5 yds to the Vandy 40Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 2
OWN 40
0
40.4%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Vandy 40Similar
Q1 9:51
4TH & 2
OWN 40
-5
40.3%
VANDERBILT Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Vandy 35Similar
Q1 9:32
4TH & 7
OWN 35
+1
40.1%
Reid Nelson punt for 35 yds , Deebo Samuel returns for 1 yd to the SCaro 31 Deebo Samuel fumbled, recovered by VandySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 3FG
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:5141% → 42%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
41.4%
Khari Blasingame run for 1 yd to the SCaro 30Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+15
41.4%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the SCaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
41.6%
Kalija Lipscomb run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 16Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 11
OPP 16
-5
41.8%
VANDERBILT Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SCaro 21Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 16
OPP 21
+3
41.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ralph Webb for 3 yds to the SCaro 18Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 13
OPP 18
0
41.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Khari Blasingame for no gain to the SCaro 18Similar
Q1 6:09
4TH & 13
OPP 18
+36
42.2%
Tommy Openshaw 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:3158% → 56%
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
42.5%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Jamari SmithSimilar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-3
42.7%
A.J. Turner run for a loss of 3 yards to the SCaro 32 SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 13
OWN 32
0
43.3%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Bryan EdwardsSimilar
Q1 5:34
4TH & 13
OWN 32
0
43.6%
Sean Kelly punt for 35 yds, fair catch by C.J. Duncan at the Vandy 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 5TD
15 plays · 67 yds · 5:3743% → 51%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
42.9%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 34Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+6
42.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Nathan Marcus for 6 yds to the Vandy 40Similar
Q1 4:04
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+16
43.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 16 yds to the SCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
44.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Jared PinkneySimilar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+9
44.8%
Trent Sherfield run for 9 yds to the SCaro 35Similar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+4
44.7%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the SCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
45.4%
Ralph Webb run for 9 yds to the SCaro 22Similar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+3
45.7%
Khari Blasingame run for 3 yds to the SCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
46.0%
Ralph Webb run for 5 yds to the SCaro 14Similar
Q1 0:31
2ND & 5
OPP 14
0
46.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Nathan MarcusSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+12
46.0%
Ralph Webb run for 12 yds to the SCaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
46.6%
Khari Blasingame run for 1 yd to the SCaro 1Similar
Q2 14:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
46.7%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive Offside ( Yards) to the SCaro 1Similar
Q2 14:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
51.4%
Khari Blasingame run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 2:3150% → 48%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
50.5%
Brandon McIlwain run for 8 yds to the SCaro 33Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
50.1%
Brandon McIlwain run for 6 yds to the SCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
50.3%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Deebo SamuelSimilar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
50.7%
Brandon McIlwain run for 4 yds to the SCaro 43Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+11
51.2%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 11 yds to the Vandy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
50.1%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Bryan EdwardsSimilar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
50.6%
Brandon McIlwain run for 2 yds to the Vandy 44Similar
Q2 11:42
3RD & 8
OPP 44
0
51.0%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Deebo SamuelSimilar
Q2 11:34
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
52.3%
Sean Kelly punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ryan White at the Vandy 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4852% → 52%
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
51.6%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 8Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 9
OWN 8
0
52.2%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Vandy 8Similar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 9
OWN 8
+7
51.9%
Wade Freebeck run for 7 yds to the Vandy 15Similar
Q2 9:34
4TH & 2
OWN 15
0
52.0%
Reid Nelson punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 8FUMBLE
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:1547% → 46%
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
52.8%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 4 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+8
51.8%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 8 yds to the Vandy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
51.9%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Hayden HurstSimilar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+6
52.5%
Brandon McIlwain run for 6 yds to the Vandy 18Similar
Q2 7:59
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+5
53.7%
Brandon McIlwain run for 5 yds to the Vandy 17 Brandon McIlwain fumbled, recovered by VandySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 2:0456% → 56%
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-8
55.8%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive Holding (-8 Yards) to the Vandy 9Similar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 18
OWN 9
0
55.7%
Wade Freebeck run for no gain to the Vandy 9Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 18
OWN 9
+1
56.1%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 10Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 18
OWN 10
0
56.5%
Wade Freebeck pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:44
4TH & 18
OWN 10
0
56.1%
Sam Loy punt for 43 yds, downed at the SCaro 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3544% → 42%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
56.0%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 6 yds to the Vandy 47Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+1
55.4%
David Williams run for 1 yd to the Vandy 46Similar
Q2 4:26
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+2
56.4%
Brandon McIlwain run for 2 yds to the Vandy 44Similar
Q2 3:50
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
58.3%
Sean Kelly punt for 37 yds, downed at the Vandy 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1259% → 60%
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
58.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ralph Webb for 1 yd to the Vandy 8Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+2
59.8%
Kyle Shurmur run for 2 yds to the Vandy 10Similar
Q2 2:36
3RD & 7
OWN 10
0
60.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Latevius RayfordSimilar
Q2 2:30
4TH & 7
OWN 10
0
59.6%
Sam Loy punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Deebo Samuel at the Vandy 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0242% → 38%
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
58.4%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to K.C. CrosbySimilar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
58.7%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Deebo SamuelSimilar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+6
60.0%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 6 yds to the Vandy 40Similar
Q2 1:35
4TH & 4
OPP 40
-5
60.0%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Vandy 45Similar
Q2 1:25
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
61.7%
Sean Kelly punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 19 yds · 1:1063% → 64%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
63.0%
Khari Blasingame run for 11 yds to the Vandy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
63.7%
Khari Blasingame run for 4 yds to the Vandy 35Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+4
64.1%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Vandy 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0266% → 65%
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
66.1%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+3
66.6%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 3
OWN 31
0
66.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Dallas RiversSimilar
Q3 13:20
4TH & 3
OWN 31
0
65.3%
Sam Loy punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Deebo Samuel at the SCaro 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 15FUMBLE
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4233% → 30%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
67.0%
A.J. Turner run for 1 yd to the SCaro 27Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
67.5%
Perry Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:36
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
68.6%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Jamari SmithSimilar
Q3 12:26
4TH & 9
OWN 27
+1
69.6%
Sean Kelly punt for 41 yds , C.J. Duncan returns for 1 yd to the Vandy 33 C.J. Duncan fumbled, recovered by VandySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1669% → 69%
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
68.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+7
68.5%
Ralph Webb run for 7 yds to the Vandy 40Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 3
OWN 40
0
69.2%
Khari Blasingame run for no gain to the Vandy 40Similar
Q3 11:03
4TH & 3
OWN 40
+7
68.9%
Sam Loy punt for 45 yds , Deebo Samuel returns for 7 yds to the SCaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 17FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 4:2931% → 34%
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
69.0%
A.J. Turner run for 6 yds to the SCaro 28Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+3
68.7%
A.J. Turner run for 3 yds to the SCaro 31Similar
Q3 10:03
3RD & 1
OWN 31
-10
69.8%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SCaro 21Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 11
OWN 21
+16
72.1%
Perry Orth pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 16 yds to the SCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
70.2%
David Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 35Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+5
71.5%
David Williams run for 5 yds to the SCaro 40Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+30
71.2%
Perry Orth pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 30 yds to the Vandy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
68.1%
Perry Orth run for 1 yd to the Vandy 29Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 9
OPP 29
-2
68.6%
A.J. Turner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 31Similar
Q3 6:22
3RD & 11
OPP 31
0
71.2%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Bryan EdwardsSimilar
Q3 6:16
4TH & 11
OPP 31
+48
66.4%
Elliott Fry 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:1271% → 71%
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
71.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+13
70.8%
Khari Blasingame run for 13 yds to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
73.1%
Khari Blasingame run for 13 yds to the SCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
74.3%
Khari Blasingame run for 1 yd to the SCaro 47Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
74.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to C.J. DuncanSimilar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 9
OPP 47
0
73.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Caleb ScottSimilar
Q3 3:51
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
71.0%
Sam Loy punt for 42 yds, downed at the SCaro 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 43 yds · 2:1031% → 29%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
68.9%
David Williams run for 1 yd to the SCaro 6Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+2
69.6%
David Williams run for 2 yds to the SCaro 8Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 7
OWN 8
+33
71.2%
Perry Orth pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 33 yds to the SCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
67.1%
A.J. Turner run for 4 yds to the SCaro 45Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+3
66.0%
Perry Orth pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 3 yds to the SCaro 48Similar
Q3 1:28
3RD & 3
OWN 48
0
68.1%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Hayden HurstSimilar
Q3 1:20
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
70.6%
Sean Kelly punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Ryan White at the Vandy 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 20PUNT
13 plays · 43 yds · 4:4777% → 80%
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+12
76.8%
Ralph Webb run for 12 yds to the Vandy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
78.1%
Ralph Webb run for 6 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q3 0:03
2ND & 4
OWN 27
-10
80.0%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Vandy 17Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 14
OWN 17
+15
79.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 15 yds to the Vandy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
79.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+10
79.8%
Ralph Webb run for 10 yds to the Vandy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
81.9%
Khari Blasingame run for 5 yds to the Vandy 47Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 5
OWN 47
0
83.1%
Khari Blasingame run for no gain to the Vandy 47Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+8
82.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 8 yds to the SCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-3
84.4%
Donaven Tennyson run for a loss of 3 yards to the SCaro 48Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 13
OPP 48
0
83.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 13
OPP 48
0
82.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q4 11:23
4TH & 13
OPP 48
0
80.4%
Sam Loy punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Deebo Samuel at the SCaro 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 21TD
10 plays · 84 yds · 3:4522% → 60%
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+12
77.8%
Perry Orth pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 12 yds to the SCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
77.5%
Perry Orth pass complete to A.J. Turner for a loss of 3 yards to the SCaro 25Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 13
OWN 25
+9
79.0%
Perry Orth pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 9 yds to the SCaro 34Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+6
78.5%
Perry Orth pass complete to K.C. Crosby for 6 yds to the SCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
77.0%
Perry Orth pass complete to A.J. Turner for 18 yds to the Vandy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
75.0%
A.J. Turner run for 5 yds to the Vandy 37Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+9
74.6%
Perry Orth run for 9 yds to the Vandy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+20
73.2%
A.J. Turner run for 20 yds to the Vandy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
40.1%
Deebo Samuel run for 8 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 22MISSED FG
8 plays · 49 yds · 3:3154% → 58%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
53.7%
Ralph Webb run for 7 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+24
56.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ralph Webb for 24 yds to the SCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
60.7%
Khari Blasingame run for 10 yds to the SCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
62.4%
Khari Blasingame run for no gain to the SCaro 34Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+5
62.4%
Khari Blasingame run for 5 yds to the SCaro 29Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+3
60.7%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the SCaro 26Similar
Q4 3:44
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+45
57.7%
Tommy Openshaw 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 23FG
10 plays · 36 yds · 2:5253% → 94%
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+16
46.8%
Perry Orth pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 16 yds to the SCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
42.7%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Bryan EdwardsSimilar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+17
44.2%
A.J. Turner run for 17 yds to the Vandy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
41.2%
A.J. Turner run for 1 yd to the Vandy 39Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+3
39.7%
A.J. Turner run for 3 yds to the Vandy 36Similar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 6
OPP 36
-1
40.2%
Perry Orth run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 37Similar
Q4 0:35
4TH & 7
OPP 37
+55
6.5%
Elliott Fry 55 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · -10 yds · 0:1122% → 14%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
21.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
19.6%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Taylor Stallworth and Darius English for a loss of 10 yards to the Vandy 15Similar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 20
OWN 15
0
14.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:1395% → 95%
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
4.7%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Vandy 10Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 5
OPP 10
-1
4.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:35
Elliott Fry 55 yd FG GOOD
-39.9
TD · Q4 7:30
Deebo Samuel run for 8 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)
-31.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:30
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent Sherfield
+14
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com