Try the model
MASS

Massachusetts 31 at Troy 52

TROY
2016 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2016 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadMASS aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreMASS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:56 · Logan Laurent punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Troy 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 28Pregame prior+40.6Home team on offense−1.3Score differential−0.4Garbage-time factor−0.4Blowout margin+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:56: Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 7 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK) — TROY win probability +3.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:13: Andrew Ford pass complete to Jalen Williams for 31 yds for a TD, (Mike Caggiano KICK) — MASS win probability +7.8 pts (now 19%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. FG · Q3 1:50: Ryan Kay 21 yd FG GOOD — TROY win probability +2.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:39: John Johnson pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 16 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK) — TROY win probability +7.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:37: Brandon Silvers pass complete to Andre Flakes for 12 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK) — TROY win probability +3.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 5 of 6MASS made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 8:56MASS 4th & 3 at MASS 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:32TROY 4th & 1 at MASS 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    88.9%−0.3
    90% to make
    Punt
    88.1%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:56MASS 4th & 5 at TROY 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    10.8%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    9.5%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:38MASS 4th & 10 at TROY 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.0%
    88% to make
    Punt
    8.9%−2.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:38TROY 4th & 9 at TROY 21, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:18MASS 4th & 20 at MASS 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−1.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:31TROY 4th & 9 at TROY 13, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:12MASS 4th & 7 at MASS 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00TROY 4th & 17 at TROY 29, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−1.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:13TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:27MASS 4th & 9 at MASS 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:50TROY 4th & 3 at MASS 3, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.7%−1.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    72.2%−9.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00MASS 4th & 4 at TROY 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    6.1%−1.0
    40% to make
    Punt
    5.9%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:01MASS 4th & 4 at TROY 22, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 7 of 7MASS made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 13:36MASS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:39MASS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:56TROY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 7:03TROY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 2:06TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:56TROY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:13MASS Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:39TROY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:37TROY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 10:01TROY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 4:17MASS Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MASSDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:247% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+48
93.3%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Jalen Williams for 48 yds to the Troy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
93.3%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Bernard Davis for 4 yds to the Troy 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+17
93.3%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Dan Jonah for 17 yds to the Troy 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
92.8%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Dan Jonah for 6 yds for a TD, (Mike Caggiano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.9%
Jordan Chunn run for no gain to the Troy 25Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+36
92.9%
Brandon Silvers pass intercepted Isaiah Rodgers return for 36 yds to the Troy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 3TD
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:128% → 8%
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
92.5%
Andrew Ford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
92.3%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Adam Breneman for 11 yds for a TD, (Mike Caggiano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4TD
13 plays · 69 yds · 3:4392% → 91%
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
92.4%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Troy 26Similar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 15
OWN 26
0
92.3%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 15
OWN 26
+5
92.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Hiram Velez for 5 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q1 12:39
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+11
92.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 11 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
92.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jordan Chunn for 11 yds to the UMass 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
92.4%
Brandon Silvers run for 4 yds to the UMass 43Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+10
92.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 10 yds to the UMass 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
92.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 5 yds to the UMass 28Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+5
92.4%
Jordan Chunn run for 5 yds to the UMass 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
92.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jordan Chunn for 3 yds to the UMass 20Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+15
92.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Sam Letton for 15 yds to the UMass 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
91.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 5 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
91.0%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Travis Reynolds for 7 yds to the UMass 32Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
90.9%
Andrew Ford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
90.9%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Dan Jonah, broken up by Sam LebbieSimilar
Q1 8:56
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
91.0%
Logan Laurent punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Troy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6TD
4 plays · 66 yds · 1:0591% → 92%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+27
90.7%
Jordan Chunn run for 27 yds to the UMass 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
91.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Hiram Velez for 12 yds to the UMass 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+14
91.1%
Jordan Chunn run for 14 yds to the UMass 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
91.5%
Jordan Chunn run for 13 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -21 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
91.1%
Isabella, Andy rush right for 7 yards to the UMASS32 (Rookard, Cedarius), PENALTY UMASS holding 10 yards to the UMASS15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 20
OWN 15
-3
91.2%
Marquis Young run for a loss of 3 yards to the UMass 12Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 23
OWN 12
0
91.2%
Andrew Ford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:03
3RD & 23
OWN 12
-8
91.3%
Andrew Ford sacked by Demetrius Cain for a loss of 8 yards to the UMass 4Similar
Q1 7:03
4TH & 31
OWN 4
0
91.4%
Logan Laurent punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UMass 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8TD
11 plays · 43 yds · 3:1691% → 92%
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
91.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 8 yds to the UMass 35Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+6
91.1%
Josh Anderson run for 6 yds to the UMass 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
91.1%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Hiram VelezSimilar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+9
91.1%
Josh Anderson run for 9 yds to the UMass 20Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+3
91.0%
Josh Anderson run for 3 yds to the UMass 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
91.1%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Josh AndersonSimilar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+4
91.1%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the UMass 13Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+5
91.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 5 yds to the UMass 8Similar
Q1 2:32
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+5
89.9%
Brandon Silvers run for 5 yds to the UMass 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
91.6%
Brandon Silvers run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 9FG
20 plays · 65 yds · 6:289% → 12%
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.0%
Marquis Young run for 5 yds to the UMass 30Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
90.9%
Marquis Young run for 1 yd to the UMass 31Similar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+12
91.0%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Adam Breneman for 12 yds to the UMass 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
90.3%
Marquis Young run for 3 yds to the UMass 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+6
90.1%
Andrew Ford run for 6 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+1
90.0%
Marquis Young run for 1 yd to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
90.0%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Travis Reynolds for 8 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 39
-5
89.9%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Troy 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+11
90.0%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Adam Breneman for 11 yds to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
89.7%
Andrew Ford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
89.7%
Marquis Young run for no gain to the Troy 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 0
0
90.0%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete TROY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Troy 33Similar
Q2 11:56
4TH & 10
OPP 33
+5
90.4%
Ford, Andrew sideline pass complete to Williams, Jalen for 3 yards to the TROY30 (Cain, Demetrius;Brown, Blace), PENALTY TROY offside defense 5 yards to the TROY28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:56
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+18
90.0%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Adam Breneman for 18 yds to the Troy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
89.1%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Adam BrenemanSimilar
Q2 11:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
89.1%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Marquis Young for no gain to the Troy 10Similar
Q2 11:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
89.7%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Jalen WilliamsSimilar
Q2 10:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
88.3%
Logan Laurent 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-8
88.4%
Jordan Chunn run for a loss of 8 yards to the Troy 12Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 18
OWN 12
+9
88.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jordan Chunn for 9 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
88.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q2 10:38
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
87.6%
Ryan Kay punt for 35 yds, fair catch by James Allen at the UMass 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:4013% → 11%
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-8
87.1%
Andrew Ford sacked by Sam Lebbie for a loss of 8 yards to the UMass 36Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 18
OWN 36
-2
89.0%
Marquis Young run for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 34Similar
Q2 8:18
3RD & 20
OWN 34
0
89.3%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Adam BrenemanSimilar
Q2 8:18
4TH & 20
OWN 34
-4
89.5%
Logan Laurent punt for 50 yds , Cedarius Rookard returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
88.4%
Jordan Chunn run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 11Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 11
OWN 11
+2
88.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 2 yds to the Troy 13Similar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 9
OWN 13
0
88.1%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q2 7:31
4TH & 9
OWN 13
0
87.7%
Ryan Kay punt for 42 yds, fair catch by James Allen at the UMass 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
87.7%
Marquis Young run for 1 yd to the UMass 46Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+2
87.8%
Marquis Young run for 2 yds to the UMass 48Similar
Q2 6:12
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
87.9%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Adam Breneman, broken up by Cedarius RookardSimilar
Q2 6:12
4TH & 7
OWN 48
+30
88.6%
Logan Laurent punt for 37 yds , Cedarius Rookard returns for 30 yds to the Troy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14TD
9 plays · 55 yds · 3:4488% → 93%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
88.4%
Jabir Frye run for 3 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+4
88.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 4 yds to the UMass 48Similar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+4
88.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the UMass 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
88.5%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the UMass 41Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+15
88.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 15 yds to the UMass 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
88.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Josh Anderson for 3 yds to the UMass 23Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+10
88.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Sam Letton for 10 yds to the UMass 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
88.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 6 yds to the UMass 7Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+7
92.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 7 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
92.2%
John Robinson-Woodgett run for 2 yds to the UMass 6Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 8
OWN 6
-1
92.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
91.2%
Silvers, Brandon rush up middle for 4 yards to the TROY40 (Casali, Steve), PENALTY TROY holding 10 yards to the TROY26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 26
-7
91.0%
Brandon Silvers sacked by Colbert Calhoun for a loss of 7 yards to the Troy 19Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 27
OWN 19
0
90.9%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 27
OWN 19
+10
90.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 10 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 29
0
90.1%
Ryan Kay punt for 41 yds, fair catch by James Allen at the UMass 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 17TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:0210% → 19%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-7
90.3%
Andrew Ford sacked by Rashad Dillard for a loss of 7 yards to the UMass 23Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 17
OWN 23
+22
90.6%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Jalen Williams for 22 yds to the UMass 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
89.8%
Ford, Andrew sideline pass complete to Robinson, John for loss of 2 yards to the UMASS43 (Lloyd, William), PENALTY UMASS holding 10 yards to the UMASS35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 20
OWN 35
+25
90.4%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Marquis Young for 25 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
89.4%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Jalen Williams for 7 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+12
88.7%
Marquis Young run for 12 yds to the Troy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-10
88.8%
Ford, Andrew sideline pass complete to Williams, Jalen for 11 yards to the TROY10 (Rountree, Jalen), PENALTY UMASS holding 10 yards to the TROY31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 20
OPP 31
0
89.2%
Andrew Ford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 20
OPP 31
+31
81.5%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Jalen Williams for 31 yds for a TD, (Mike Caggiano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
84.4%
Jordan Chunn run for 6 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 4
OWN 33
0
85.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Jordan ChunnSimilar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
84.1%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Tevaris McCormickSimilar
Q3 10:13
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
83.6%
Ryan Kay punt for 41 yds, fair catch by James Allen at the UMass 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
83.0%
Marquis Young run for 5 yds to the UMass 31Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+2
82.3%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 2 yds to the UMass 33Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 3
OWN 33
-6
82.8%
Andrew Ford sacked by Trevon Sanders for a loss of 6 yards to the UMass 27Similar
Q3 9:27
4TH & 9
OWN 27
+39
84.4%
Logan Laurent punt for 39 yds , Cedarius Rookard returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20FG
16 plays · 64 yds · 5:4684% → 88%
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
83.6%
Jordan Chunn run for no gain to the Troy 33Similar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-9
83.4%
Jabir Frye run for 1 yd to the Troy 34 TROY Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Troy 24Similar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 19
OWN 24
+6
83.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Andre Flakes for 6 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q3 7:36
3RD & 13
OWN 30
+14
82.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 14 yds to the Troy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
84.7%
Jordan Chunn run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 4
50
+8
85.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Dominic Walker for 8 yds to the UMass 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
85.3%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Andre FlakesSimilar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+14
85.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Sam Letton for 14 yds to the UMass 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
85.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Sam Letton for 10 yds to the UMass 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
85.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd to the UMass 17Similar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+4
85.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the UMass 13Similar
Q3 7:36
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+11
85.1%
Silvers, Brandon deep pass incomplete to Douglas, Deondre, PENALTY UMASS pass interference 11 yards to the UMASS2, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
85.8%
Jordan Chunn run for no gain to the UMass 2Similar
Q3 7:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
85.8%
Jordan Chunn run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 3Similar
Q3 7:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
85.0%
Brandon Silvers run for no gain to the UMass 3 TROY Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 1:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
87.7%
Ryan Kay 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22TD
1 play · 16 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
95.8%
John Johnson pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 16 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 23DOWNS
10 plays · 41 yds · 1:397% → 7%
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
93.3%
Andrew Ford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+15
93.4%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Marquis Young for 15 yds to the UMass 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
92.7%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Dan JonahSimilar
Q3 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
92.8%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Adam Breneman for 9 yds to the UMass 46Similar
Q3 1:39
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+11
92.3%
Marquis Young run for 11 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
92.0%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Adam Breneman, broken up by Kris WeatherspoonSimilar
Q3 1:39
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+4
92.3%
Marquis Young run for 4 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+2
93.2%
Marquis Young run for 2 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 37
0
93.4%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Adam BrenemanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 1:3296% → 99%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
95.7%
Josh Anderson run for 4 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+16
95.9%
Jabir Frye run for 16 yds to the UMass 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+31
95.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 31 yds to the UMass 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Andre Flakes for 12 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 25INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
99.0%
Marquis Young run for 2 yds to the UMass 24Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 8
OWN 24
-1
99.0%
Andrew Ford pass intercepted Blace Brown return for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 26TD
4 plays · 37 yds · 1:3999% → 100%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
99.1%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Jabir Frye for 5 yds to the UMass 32Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+1
99.1%
Josh Anderson run for 1 yd to the UMass 31Similar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 4
OWN 0
+24
99.0%
Sidney Davis run for 24 yds to the UMass 7 for a 1ST down MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the UMass 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.9%
Sawyer Smith run for 7 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 27TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 5:440% → 1%
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Adam BrenemanSimilar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Andy Isabella, broken up by Robert JohnsonSimilar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+19
99.9%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Dan Jonah for 19 yds to the UMass 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
99.9%
Ford, Andrew rush left for 1 yard to the UMASS45, PENALTY UMASS illegal block 10 yards to the UMASS34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 20
OWN 34
+7
99.9%
Marquis Young run for 7 yds to the UMass 41Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 13
OWN 41
+10
99.9%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 10 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+10
99.9%
Andrew Ford run for 10 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-6
99.9%
Andrew Ford sacked by Zo Bridges for a loss of 6 yards to the Troy 45Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 16
OPP 45
+1
99.9%
Marquis Young run for 1 yd to the Troy 44Similar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 15
OPP 44
+16
99.9%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Adam Breneman for 16 yds to the Troy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
99.9%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Travis Reynolds, broken up by Josh MarshallSimilar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
99.9%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Bernard DavisSimilar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+6
99.9%
Sekai Lindsay run for 6 yds to the Troy 22Similar
Q4 10:01
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+11
99.9%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 11 yds to the Troy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
99.9%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Sadiq Palmer for 7 yds to the Troy 4Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 3
OPP 4
0
99.9%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Adam BrenemanSimilar
Q4 4:17
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
99.3%
Sadiq Palmer run for 4 yds for a TD, (Mike Caggiano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 28END OF GAME
8 plays · 52 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
99.4%
Sidney Davis run for 4 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+21
99.4%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Richard Hallman for 21 yds to the UMass 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
99.4%
Sawyer Smith run for a loss of 5 yards to the UMass 46Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 15
OPP 46
+41
99.4%
Sawyer Smith run for 41 yds to the UMass 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
99.4%
TROY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UMass 10Similar
Q4 4:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 12Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
-2
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:13
Andrew Ford pass complete to Jalen Williams for 31 yds for a TD, (Mike Caggiano KICK)
-7.8
TD · Q3 1:39
John Johnson pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 16 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)
+7.5
TD · Q2 0:56
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 7 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)
+3.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com