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MSST

Mississippi State 47 at Massachusetts 35

MASS
2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · Gillette Stadium
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Win probability · MASS
modelMASS aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playMASS scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:12 · Logan Laurent punt for 40 yds , Fred Ross returns for 14 yds to the UMass 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 13Pregame prior−44.3Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:48: Andrew Ford pass complete to Jalen Williams for 31 yds for a TD, (Mike Caggiano KICK) — MASS win probability +9.0 pts (now 32%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:05: Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 46 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +13.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:08: Andrew Ford pass complete to Jalen Williams for 19 yds for a TD, (Mike Caggiano KICK) — MASS win probability +17.1 pts (now 39%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:35: Aeris Williams run for 16 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +13.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:59: Andrew Ford pass complete to Sadiq Palmer for 19 yds for a TD, (Mike Caggiano KICK) — MASS win probability +20.3 pts (now 27%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MASS made the numbers' call on 6 of 9MSST made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00MSST 4th & 8 at MASS 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    93.1%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:12MASS 4th & 2 at MASS 10, tied
    Close callPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:17MSST 4th & 1 at MASS 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    91.8%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    91.4%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:45MSST 4th & 5 at MASS 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.0%
    92% to make
    Punt
    90.5%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 8:45MASS 4th & 12 at MASS 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%
    average punt
  6. Q1 6:29MSST 4th & 20 at MASS 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%−0.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    90.1%−<0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.1%
    average punt
  7. Q1 6:08MSST 4th & 2 at MSST 35, down 4
    Close callPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00MASS 4th & 7 at MSST 20, up 4
    Close callWent for it · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.4%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    14.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    13.1%−1.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:42MSST 4th & 1 at MASS 16, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    82.3%−0.8
    81% to make
    Punt
    80.2%−2.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:44MSST 4th & 10 at MASS 13, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    77.1%−3.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:48MASS 4th & 7 at MSST 31, up 1
    Close callWent for it · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    25.6%
    54% to make
    Punt
    24.5%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00MASS 4th & 14 at MASS 48, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−1.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:11MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 38, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:27MASS 4th & 12 at MASS 10, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−1.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:18MASS 4th & 15 at MASS 17, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−1.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00MASS 4th & 4 at MSST 38, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    2.5%−0.9
    38% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−0.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:24MSST 4th & 2 at MASS 45, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    91.6%−2.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%−1.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:16MASS 4th & 1 at MASS 34, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.8%−1.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MASS made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MSST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 6:08MASS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:48MASS Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:28MSST Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:05MSST Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:08MASS Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:35MSST Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:18MSST Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:07MSST Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:24MASS Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.0%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.2%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:59MASS Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.0%−1.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 2:33MSST Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    95.1%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    95.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
5.5%
Brandon Holloway run for 16 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
5.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 9 yds to the UMass 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+6
5.5%
Ashton Shumpert run for 6 yds to the UMass 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
5.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Gabe Myles, broken up by James AllenSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+2
5.5%
Brandon Holloway run for 2 yds to the UMass 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
5.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
5.5%
Logan Cooke punt for 39 yds, downed at the UMass 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
6.0%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, false start (Adam Breneman) to the UMass 1Similar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 11
OWN 1
+2
6.0%
John Robinson-Woodgett run for 2 yds to the UMass 3Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+2
6.0%
John Robinson-Woodgett run for 2 yds to the UMass 5Similar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 7
OWN 5
+5
6.0%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 5 yds to the UMass 10Similar
Q1 13:12
4TH & 2
OWN 10
+14
6.0%
Logan Laurent punt for 40 yds , Fred Ross returns for 14 yds to the UMass 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3FG
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:3294% → 93%
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
6.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+6
6.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 6 yds to the UMass 30Similar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+3
6.5%
Brandon Holloway run for 3 yds to the UMass 27Similar
Q1 11:17
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+21
6.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 21 yds to the UMass 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-4
6.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 4 yards to the UMass 10Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
6.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 5 yds to the UMass 5Similar
Q1 11:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
6.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Ashton Shumpert, broken up by Steve CasaliSimilar
Q1 8:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
7.3%
Westin Graves 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
7.3%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Adam BrenemanSimilar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-2
7.3%
Marquis Young run for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 21Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 12
OWN 21
0
7.2%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Jalen WilliamsSimilar
Q1 8:45
4TH & 12
OWN 21
+4
7.2%
Logan Laurent punt for 40 yds , Fred Ross returns for 4 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:2693% → 92%
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
7.5%
Malik Dear run for 6 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+19
7.5%
Brandon Holloway run for 19 yds to the UMass 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
7.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Gabe MylesSimilar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-10
7.4%
Keith Mixon rush for 12 yards to the UMASS20, out-of-bounds (Bowe Jr., J.), PENALTY MS holding 10 yards to the UMASS42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 20
OPP 42
0
7.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred Ross, broken up by Steve CasaliSimilar
Q1 6:29
3RD & 20
OPP 42
0
8.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Brandon HollowaySimilar
Q1 6:29
4TH & 20
OPP 42
0
8.2%
Logan Cooke punt for 25 yds, fair catch by James Allen at the UMass 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 6TD
1 play · 83 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+83
9.0%
Marquis Young run for 83 yds for a TD, (Mike Caggiano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
8.9%
Brandon Holloway run for 4 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+4
8.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 2
OWN 35
0
8.8%
Aeris Williams run for no gain to the MisSt 35Similar
Q1 6:08
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
9.0%
Logan Cooke punt for 22 yds, downed at the UMass 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 8INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
10.2%
Andrew Ford pass intercepted Kivon Coman return for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9FUMBLE
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:0090% → 91%
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
9.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 6 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q1 4:12
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+5
9.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 5 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
9.8%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q1 4:12
2ND & 5
OWN 39
-2
9.6%
Aeris Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 37Similar
Q1 4:12
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+16
9.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 16 yds to the UMass 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
9.5%
Ashton Shumpert run for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 48Similar
Q1 4:12
2ND & 15
OWN 48
+15
9.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 15 yds to the UMass 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
9.5%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Da'Sean Downey for a loss of 8 yards to the MisSt 23 Nick Fitzgerald fumbled, recovered by UMass Steve Casali , return for 0 yards , return for 20 yds to the MisSt 17 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, personal foul (Justin Senior) to the MisSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 10DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5412% → 13%
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
12.4%
John Robinson-Woodgett run for 2 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 8
OPP 21
-9
12.4%
Andrew Ford sacked by DeAndre Ward and Johnathan Calvin for a loss of 9 yards to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 17
OPP 30
+10
12.4%
Marquis Young run for 10 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 20
0
12.5%
Andrew Libby pass incomplete to John Robinson-WoodgettSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11FG
16 plays · 67 yds · 6:3287% → 84%
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
12.6%
Ashton Shumpert run for 3 yds to the MisSt 23Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+4
12.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q2 14:16
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+9
12.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 9 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
12.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
12.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q2 14:16
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+13
12.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 13 yds to the UMass 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+23
11.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Malik Dear for 23 yds to the UMass 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
11.4%
Ashton Shumpert run for no gain to the UMass 25Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
14.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for a loss of 3 yards to the UMass 27 to Brandon Holloway for 1 yd to the UMass 27Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 12
OPP 27
+11
15.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 11 yds to the UMass 16Similar
Q2 10:42
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+3
15.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the UMass 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
14.2%
Ashton Shumpert run for no gain to the UMass 13Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
14.2%
Ashton Shumpert run for no gain to the UMass 13Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
14.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Malik DearSimilar
Q2 7:44
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+30
16.5%
Westin Graves 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 12TD
15 plays · 74 yds · 5:5618% → 32%
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
17.7%
Marquis Young run for 5 yds to the UMass 31Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+8
17.9%
Marquis Young run for 8 yds to the UMass 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
18.2%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Adam Breneman for 15 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
19.1%
Marquis Young run for 2 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+7
19.1%
Marquis Young run for 7 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+3
18.8%
John Robinson-Woodgett run for 3 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
19.5%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 1 yd to the MisSt 33Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+3
19.4%
Marquis Young run for 3 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 6
OPP 30
-5
18.9%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, false start (Fabian Hoeller) to the MisSt 35Similar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 11
OPP 35
-1
18.4%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Marquis Young for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 36Similar
Q2 2:01
4TH & 12
OPP 36
+5
22.0%
Ford, A. pass complete to Williams, J. for 5 yards to the MS31, out-of-bounds (Brandon Bryant;Traver Jung), PENALTY MS offside defense 5 yards to the MS31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:48
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+31
32.4%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Jalen Williams for 31 yds for a TD, (Mike Caggiano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 1:2068% → 81%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
32.4%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, false start (Donald Gray) to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+11
33.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for 11 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+13
30.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 13 yds to the UMass 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
29.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 1 yd to the UMass 45Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+5
29.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Malik Dear for 5 yds to the UMass 40Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+14
29.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 14 yds to the UMass 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+17
27.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 17 yds to the UMass 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
19.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 9 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
24.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 0:0026% → 24%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
25.8%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Adam BrenemanSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
25.4%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 1 yd to the UMass 37Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+15
24.7%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Bernard Davis for 15 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
27.5%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Bernard Davis for 1 yd to the MisSt 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
27.4%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Bernard Davis, broken up by Kivon ComanSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 47
-5
26.2%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, delay of game (Andrew Ford) to the UMass 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 48
0
24.5%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Andy Isabella, broken up by Jamoral GrahamSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 48
+38
23.8%
Logan Laurent punt for 38 yds , Fred Ross returns for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
26.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+6
26.4%
Brandon Holloway run for 6 yds to the MisSt 19Similar
Q3 13:11
3RD & 4
OWN 19
-10
27.0%
Ashton Shumpert rush for 14 yards to the MS33 (Moses, L.), PENALTY MS holding (Jamaal Clayborn) 10 yards to the MS9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:11
3RD & 14
OWN 9
+15
27.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 15 yds to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
26.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for 14 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
24.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
24.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Deddrick ThomasSimilar
Q3 13:11
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
26.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred Ross, broken up by Steve CasaliSimilar
Q3 13:11
4TH & 10
OWN 38
+1
27.1%
Logan Cooke punt for 51 yds , James Allen returns for 1 yd to the UMass 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
28.4%
John Robinson-Woodgett run for 3 yds to the UMass 15Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 7
OWN 15
-5
28.4%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the UMass 10Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 12
OWN 10
0
28.2%
Marquis Young run for no gain to the UMass 10Similar
Q3 11:27
3RD & 12
OWN 10
0
27.2%
Andrew Ford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:27
4TH & 12
OWN 10
0
26.7%
Logan Laurent punt for 54 yds, downed at the MisSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18TD
3 plays · 64 yds · 0:2871% → 86%
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
29.3%
Keith Mixon run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
50
+4
27.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Keith Mixon (Ngobidi, P.), PENALTY UMASS pass interference (Jones Jr., R.) 4 yards to the UMASS46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 6
OPP 46
+46
14.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 46 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 19TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 1:5718% → 39%
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
18.4%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Adam Breneman for 14 yds to the UMass 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
20.0%
Marquis Young run for 9 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+1
20.8%
Marquis Young run for 1 yd to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
20.8%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Andy IsabellaSimilar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+11
20.6%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 11 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
21.8%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Jalen Williams for 14 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
38.9%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Jalen Williams for 19 yds for a TD, (Mike Caggiano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20TD
7 plays · 44 yds · 2:3370% → 85%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
29.6%
Keith Mixon run for 3 yds to the UMass 41Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+12
29.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 12 yds to the UMass 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
28.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, false start (Martinas Rankin) to the UMass 34Similar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+7
29.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the UMass 27Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+11
28.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 11 yds to the UMass 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
14.9%
Aeris Williams run for 16 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 21INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+38
10.6%
Andrew Ford pass intercepted for a TD Jamoral Graham return for 38 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
10.5%
Marquis Young run for 2 yds to the UMass 24Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 8
OWN 24
-9
10.5%
Marquis Young run for 1 yd to the UMass 25 MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Offensive holding (Raquan Thomas) to the UMass 15Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 17
OWN 15
+2
10.3%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Marquis Young for 2 yds to the UMass 17Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 15
OWN 17
0
9.9%
Andrew Ford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:18
4TH & 15
OWN 17
+7
9.9%
Logan Laurent punt for 41 yds , Fred Ross returns for 7 yds to the MisSt 24 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive holding (DeAndre Ward) to the MisSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 1:5593% → 98%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
7.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 8 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+7
7.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Malik Dear for 7 yds to the UMass 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
7.1%
Brandon Holloway run for 11 yds to the UMass 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
7.0%
Brandon Holloway run for 7 yds to the UMass 28Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+15
6.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 15 yds to the UMass 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
1.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for 13 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 24TD
16 plays · 79 yds · 4:363% → 12%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
2.6%
Marquis Young run for no gain to the UMass 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+14
2.6%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Adam Breneman for 14 yds to the UMass 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
2.6%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Andy IsabellaSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
2.6%
Marquis Young run for no gain to the UMass 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+10
2.6%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Adam Breneman for 10 yds to the UMass 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
2.7%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Jalen WilliamsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+11
2.7%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Marquis Young for 11 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
2.8%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Adam Breneman, broken up by DeAndre WardSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-2
2.8%
Marquis Young run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 46
+8
2.7%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 8 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 38
+8
2.8%
Andrew Ford run for 8 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
3.1%
Marquis Young run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+13
3.0%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Adam Breneman for 13 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
3.1%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Andy Isabella, broken up by Jamoral GrahamSimilar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+19
12.1%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Bernard Davis for 19 yds for a TD, (Mike Caggiano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+18
5.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 18 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
5.1%
Brandon Holloway run for 4 yds to the UMass 49Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+3
5.1%
Keith Mixon run for 3 yds to the UMass 46Similar
Q4 10:24
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+1
5.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the UMass 45Similar
Q4 10:24
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
5.9%
Logan Cooke punt for 33 yds, fair catch by James Allen at the UMass 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 26TD
10 plays · 88 yds · 3:178% → 27%
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+13
7.6%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Adam Breneman for 13 yds to the UMass 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
7.7%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Adam BrenemanSimilar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
7.5%
Marquis Young run for no gain to the UMass 25Similar
Q4 8:16
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
7.2%
Andrew Ford run for 9 yds to the UMass 34Similar
Q4 8:16
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+24
7.8%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Marquis Young for 9 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, personal foul (Lashard Durr) to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
9.7%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 6 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 4
OPP 36
-6
10.1%
Andrew Ford sacked by Nelson Adams for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 42Similar
Q4 5:41
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+23
6.6%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Marquis Young for 23 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
26.9%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Sadiq Palmer for 19 yds for a TD, (Mike Caggiano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 27TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 2:2686% → 97%
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
14.5%
Brandon Holloway run for 8 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q4 4:59
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+6
13.2%
Ashton Shumpert run for 6 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
12.8%
Ashton Shumpert run for 10 yds to the UMass 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
12.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the UMass 41Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+29
8.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 29 yds to the UMass 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
3.3%
Ashton Shumpert run for 12 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 28INT
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
4.4%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, false start (Jack Driscoll) to the UMass 42Similar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 15
OWN 42
-3
4.1%
Andrew Ford pass intercepted Johnathan Calvin return for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 29END OF GAME
7 plays · 32 yds · 0:5497% → 97%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
3.5%
Ashton Shumpert run for 6 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+3
3.5%
Ashton Shumpert run for 3 yds to the UMass 49Similar
Q4 1:21
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+27
2.6%
Ashton Shumpert run for 27 yds to the UMass 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
2.5%
PENALTY MS unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY UMASS unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
2.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 24Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 12
OPP 24
-2
2.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:59
Andrew Ford pass complete to Sadiq Palmer for 19 yds for a TD, (Mike Caggiano KICK)
+20.3
TD · Q3 7:08
Andrew Ford pass complete to Jalen Williams for 19 yds for a TD, (Mike Caggiano KICK)
+17.1
TD · Q3 4:35
Aeris Williams run for 16 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)
-13.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com