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Notre Dame 27 at USC 45

USC
2016 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2016 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Dominic Davis run for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:24: Adoree' Jackson 55 Yd Punt Return (Matt Boermeester Kick) — USC win probability +6.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:08: DeShone Kizer pass complete to Chris Finke for 14 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +6.7 pts (now 16%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:41: Sam Darnold pass complete to Adoree' Jackson for 52 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK) — USC win probability +7.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:01: DeShone Kizer pass complete to Kevin Stepherson for 29 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +11.3 pts (now 17%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:47: John Chereson kickoff for 62 yds , Adoree' Jackson return for 97 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK) — USC win probability +11.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 7ND made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 10:22USC 4th & 3 at ND 19, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.6%−<0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    85.2%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:50ND 4th & 6 at USC 44, down 3
    Close callPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    15.9%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:22USC 4th & 8 at USC 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:25ND 4th & 1 at ND 43, down 3
    Close callPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:52USC 4th & 13 at ND 35, up 3
    Close callPunted · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    80.5%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:55ND 4th & 5 at USC 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    16.4%−4.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:12USC 4th & 8 at USC 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.8%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:24ND 4th & 21 at ND 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−2.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:51ND 4th & 2 at USC 21, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    7.7%−0.6
    74% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−4.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:32ND 4th & 11 at USC 48, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:45USC 4th & 3 at USC 39, up 17
    Close callPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.1%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:25ND 4th & 1 at USC 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    3.3%−2.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−2.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:41ND 4th & 7 at ND 28, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:26USC 4th & 7 at USC 28, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:54ND 4th & 14 at ND 46, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:35USC 4th & 7 at USC 14, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ND made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:51ND Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:08USC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:24USC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:07USC Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:08ND Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:41USC Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:01ND Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:47USC Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:40USC Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:02ND Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    1.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1FG
12 plays · 61 yds · 4:3286% → 85%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
85.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 7 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+13
85.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 13 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
85.5%
Ronald Jones II run for 8 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+4
85.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
85.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Taylor McNamara for 11 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
85.3%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+9
85.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 9 yds to the NDame 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
85.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 5 yds to the NDame 21Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+2
85.2%
Sam Darnold run for 2 yds to the NDame 19Similar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 3
OPP 19
0
84.6%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Ronald Jones IISimilar
Q1 10:22
4TH & 3
OPP 19
+37
84.7%
Matt Boermeester 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 2TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:1816% → 17%
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+74
84.5%
Josh Adams run for 74 yds to the USC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.3%
DeShone Kizer run for 1 yd for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2684% → 84%
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
83.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 7 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
83.6%
Sam Darnold run for 6 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
83.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 4 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
83.4%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Deontay BurnettSimilar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 6
OWN 42
-5
83.2%
USC Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the USC 37Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+12
82.7%
Adoree' Jackson run for 12 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
83.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for no gain to the USC 49Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+51
84.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 51 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 3:0816% → 17%
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
83.8%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 9 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+8
83.4%
Josh Adams run for 8 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
83.2%
Josh Adams run for 1 yd to the NDame 41Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+11
83.1%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Corey Holmes for 11 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
82.7%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Kevin Stepherson for 5 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+3
82.4%
Tarean Folston run for 3 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q1 4:13
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+1
82.4%
Tarean Folston run for 1 yd to the USC 39Similar
Q1 4:10
4TH & 1
OPP 39
-5
82.8%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 44Similar
Q1 3:50
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
82.8%
Tyler Newsome punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:1583% → 82%
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
82.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 7 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+11
82.8%
Justin Davis run for 11 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
82.8%
Justin Davis run for 2 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+5
82.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 5 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q1 1:31
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
82.4%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Darreus RogersSimilar
Q1 1:31
4TH & 3
OWN 45
-5
82.0%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 40Similar
Q1 1:22
4TH & 8
OWN 40
+4
81.5%
Chris Tilbey punt for 43 yds , Chris Finke returns for 4 yds to the NDame 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:5118% → 19%
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+13
82.1%
Josh Adams run for 13 yds to the NDame 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
81.7%
Dexter Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 36Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 36
-6
81.4%
DeShone Kizer sacked by Stevie Tu'ikolovatu for a loss of 6 yards to the NDame 30Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 14
OWN 30
+13
82.1%
DeShone Kizer run for 13 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q2 14:25
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+47
81.3%
Tyler Newsome punt for 47 yds , Adoree' Jackson returns for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7PUNT
14 plays · 56 yds · 4:1881% → 79%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
81.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 5 yds to the USC 14Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+3
81.0%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 3 yds to the USC 17Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 2
OWN 17
+6
80.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Daniel Imatorbhebhe for 6 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
80.9%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+7
80.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 7 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
80.7%
Ronald Jones II run for no gain to the USC 34Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
80.5%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+20
79.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 20 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
81.5%
Ronald Jones II run for 14 yds to the NDame 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
81.6%
Ronald Jones II run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 35Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 13
OPP 35
0
81.0%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:58
3RD & 13
OPP 35
0
80.2%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q2 9:52
4TH & 13
OPP 35
0
79.1%
Chris Tilbey punt for 25 yds, downed at the NDame 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 8MISSED FG
16 plays · 70 yds · 4:5620% → 23%
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
79.8%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NDame 5Similar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+1
79.8%
Josh Adams run for 1 yd to the NDame 6Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 14
OWN 6
+4
79.9%
Josh Adams run for 4 yds to the NDame 10Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 10
OWN 10
0
80.0%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Corey HolmesSimilar
Q2 8:30
4TH & 10
OWN 10
+15
80.4%
USC Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (15 Yards) to the NDame 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
79.1%
Dexter Williams run for a loss of 7 yards to the NDame 18Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+7
79.4%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Josh Adams for 7 yds to the NDame 25Similar
Q2 6:57
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
79.6%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 12 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+26
78.1%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Chris Finke for 26 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
76.8%
Josh Adams run for 7 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+5
75.7%
Josh Adams run for 5 yds to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
75.6%
DeShone Kizer run for no gain to the USC 25Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
75.8%
USC Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the USC 20Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 5
OPP 20
0
75.2%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Corey HolmesSimilar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
76.0%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Corey HolmesSimilar
Q2 4:55
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+37
77.4%
Justin Yoon 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:3679% → 77%
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
78.5%
Ronald Jones II run for 16 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
79.1%
Ronald Jones II run for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 30Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 16
OWN 30
+8
78.0%
Sam Darnold run for 8 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
78.0%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Deontay BurnettSimilar
Q2 3:12
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
77.0%
Chris Tilbey punt for 41 yds, downed at the NDame 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10PUNT TD
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:4022% → 15%
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-13
77.6%
DeShone Kizer sacked by Uchenna Nwosu and Rasheem Green for a loss of 13 yards to the NDame 8Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 23
OWN 8
+2
77.7%
Tarean Folston run for 2 yds to the NDame 10Similar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 21
OWN 10
0
78.0%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Corey HolmesSimilar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 21
OWN 10
+55
85.5%
Adoree' Jackson 55 Yd Punt Return (Matt Boermeester Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11INT TD
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:1016% → 10%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.4%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Corey HolmesSimilar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+33
90.5%
DeShone Kizer pass intercepted for a TD Ajene Harris return for 33 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5010% → 10%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-16
90.4%
DeShone Kizer sacked by Porter Gustin and Rasheem Green for a loss of 7 yards to the NDame 17 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-9 Yards) to the NDame 8Similar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 26
OWN 8
+20
90.6%
Josh Adams run for 20 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 6
OWN 28
0
89.9%
DeShone Kizer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 6
OWN 28
0
90.3%
Tyler Newsome punt for 49 yds, downed at the USC 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
91.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14FUMBLE
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:279% → 8%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
91.3%
Josh Adams run for 3 yds to the NDame 25Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
91.3%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Equanimeous St. BrownSimilar
Q3 14:13
3RD & 7
OWN 25
-5
91.6%
DeShone Kizer sacked by Ajene Harris for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15TD
10 plays · 40 yds · 3:2210% → 16%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
90.3%
Chris Finke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+2
90.5%
Tarean Folston run for 2 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+9
91.1%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Chris Finke for 9 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
90.1%
Tarean Folston run for 2 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
90.4%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Josh AdamsSimilar
Q3 11:51
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+6
91.3%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Corey Holmes for 6 yds to the USC 21Similar
Q3 11:51
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+5
91.1%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 5 yds to the USC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
90.6%
Tarean Folston run for 2 yds to the USC 14Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 8
OPP 14
0
90.6%
DeShone Kizer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:08
3RD & 8
OPP 14
+14
84.0%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Chris Finke for 14 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16TD
6 plays · 79 yds · 2:1486% → 95%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
86.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+1
86.1%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the USC 26Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+21
85.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 21 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
87.2%
Justin Davis run for 1 yd to the USC 48Similar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+52
94.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Adoree' Jackson for 52 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:567% → 6%
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
93.5%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 5 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
93.1%
Josh Adams run for 8 yds to the NDame 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
93.2%
Josh Adams run for 15 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
93.2%
Josh Adams run for 2 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+4
93.3%
Dexter Williams run for 4 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 4
OPP 41
-7
94.1%
DeShone Kizer sacked by Porter Gustin for a loss of 7 yards to the USC 48Similar
Q3 4:32
4TH & 11
OPP 48
0
94.5%
Tyler Newsome punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:4195% → 95%
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
94.8%
Justin Davis run for 4 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+8
94.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Isaac Whitney for 8 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
95.1%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+7
95.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Taylor McNamara for 7 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q3 2:58
3RD & 3
OWN 39
0
95.2%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q3 2:45
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
94.8%
Chris Tilbey punt for 44 yds, downed at the NDame 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19TD
6 plays · 83 yds · 1:375% → 17%
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+40
94.7%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 40 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
94.4%
Josh Adams run for 5 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q3 1:51
2ND & 5
OPP 38
0
94.2%
DeShone Kizer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+4
94.6%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Chris Finke for 4 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q3 1:25
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+5
94.4%
Josh Adams run for 5 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
83.1%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Kevin Stepherson for 29 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21FUMBLE
7 plays · 39 yds · 1:415% → 5%
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
95.1%
Chris Finke pass complete to DeShone Kizer for 4 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+7
95.1%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Corey Holmes for 7 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+23
95.1%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Josh Adams for 23 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
94.8%
Josh Adams run for 6 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q4 13:37
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+8
95.3%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 8 yds to the USC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-9
95.0%
DeShone Kizer run for a loss of 9 yards to the USC 30 DeShone Kizer fumbled, recovered by USC Jack JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22DOWNS
11 plays · 61 yds · 3:3097% → 99%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
96.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Jalen Greene for 15 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
96.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 10 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
96.9%
Ronald Jones II run for 15 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
97.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 8 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+13
97.0%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 5 yds to the NDame 17 for a 1ST down NOTRE DAME Penalty, Personal Foul (8 Yards) to the NDame 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 0
OPP 9
-5
97.2%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NDame 14Similar
Q4 10:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
0
97.3%
Justin Davis run for no gain to the NDame 14Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
0
97.3%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Adoree' JacksonSimilar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 0
OPP 14
+12
97.2%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (12 Yards) to the NDame 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:541% → 1%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.9%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Kevin StephersonSimilar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.9%
Josh Adams run for 3 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q4 8:53
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
98.9%
DeShone Kizer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:41
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
99.0%
Tyler Newsome punt for 62 yds, downed at the USC 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:04100% → 100%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
99.5%
Justin Davis run for 4 yds to the USC 14Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+3
99.5%
Justin Davis run for 3 yds to the USC 17Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+8
99.5%
Justin Davis run for 8 yds to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Justin Davis run for no gain to the USC 25Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.6%
Justin Davis run for 3 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q4 5:38
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
99.6%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:26
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+12
99.6%
Chris Tilbey punt for 34 yds , Chris Finke returns for 12 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:091% → 1%
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
50
-7
99.2%
DeShone Kizer sacked by Michael Hutchings for a loss of 7 yards to the NDame 43Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 17
OWN 43
+3
99.3%
DeShone Kizer run for 3 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q4 4:05
3RD & 14
OWN 46
0
99.4%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Corey HolmesSimilar
Q4 3:54
4TH & 14
OWN 46
0
99.4%
Tyler Newsome punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:58100% → 100%
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-3
99.7%
Dominic Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 8Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 13
OWN 8
-2
99.7%
Dominic Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 6Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 15
OWN 6
+8
99.7%
Dominic Davis run for 8 yds to the USC 14Similar
Q4 1:35
4TH & 7
OWN 14
-2
99.8%
Chris Tilbey punt for 44 yds , Chris Finke returns for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 27TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 0:251% → 3%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
99.4%
USC Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.4%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to Durham SmytheSimilar
Q4 1:02
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+15
97.6%
Equanimeous St. Brown 15 Yd pass from Malik Zaire (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+25
97.9%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Tarean Folston for 10 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
97.5%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Corey Holmes for 5 yds to the USC 15Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 5
OPP 15
0
97.5%
Malik Zaire pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 28END OF GAME
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:45100% → 100%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
99.5%
Dominic Davis run for 4 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 41
-5
99.5%
Dominic Davis run for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:47
John Chereson kickoff for 62 yds , Adoree' Jackson return for 97 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)
+11.9
TD · Q3 1:01
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Kevin Stepherson for 29 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)
-11.3
TD · Q3 7:41
Sam Darnold pass complete to Adoree' Jackson for 52 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)
+7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com