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MIA

Miami 27 at Notre Dame 30

ND
2016 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2016 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:33 · Justin Vogel punt for 42 yds, fair catch by C.J. Sanders at the NDame 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorTime remainingPregame prior
+23.5+11.80−11.8−23.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 84Home team on offense+8.4Score differential+3.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.8Garbage-time factor+0.6Time remaining−0.2Pregame prior+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:50: Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 2 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +11.0 pts (now 30%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:36: Mark Walton run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +18.8 pts (now 40%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:49: Justin Vogel punt for 40 yds , C.J. Sanders returns for a loss of 4 yards for a TD C.J. Sanders fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Michael Jackson for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +28.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:53: Josh Adams run for 41 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +37.3 pts (now 64%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:30: Justin Yoon 23 yd FG GOOD — ND win probability +30.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 7 of 8MIA made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 9:29MIA 4th & 18 at MIA 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−0.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:34ND 4th & 8 at MIA 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    57.1%−1.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:50MIA 4th & 8 at MIA 27, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−1.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:23ND 4th & 3 at MIA 47, up 17
    Close callPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:05MIA 4th & 10 at MIA 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−2.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:31ND 4th & 9 at MIA 9, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    68.5%−7.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:51MIA 4th & 10 at MIA 25, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−1.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:33MIA 4th & 27 at MIA 46, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−1.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:56ND 4th & 9 at ND 40, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:38MIA 4th & 1 at ND 34, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    24.4%−0.6
    47% to make
    Punt
    22.9%−2.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:31ND 4th & 12 at ND 45, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−2.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:41MIA 4th & 12 at ND 26, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−2.8
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    21.4%−10.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:53ND 4th & 1 at MIA 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    61.4%−4.6
    58% to make
    Punt
    52.0%−14.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:30MIA 4th & 6 at ND 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−1.5
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    24.8%−11.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:48ND 4th & 9 at ND 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−4.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:49MIA 4th & 4 at ND 44, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.5 ptsPunted · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    42.9%−8.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%−4.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:43MIA 4th & 14 at MIA 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−12.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:30ND 4th & 6 at MIA 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−4.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    25.9%−34.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MIA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:32ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:23ND Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:50MIA Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:36MIA Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:53ND Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.4%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:0852% → 54%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
51.8%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 9 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
51.9%
Josh Adams run for no gain to the NDame 34Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
51.9%
DeShone Kizer run for 5 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
52.1%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 7 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+18
52.3%
Josh Adams run for 18 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
52.4%
Kizer, DeShone pass complete to St. Brown, Equanimeous for 7 yards to the MIAMI29, PENALTY NOTREDAME ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the MIAMI41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+7
52.4%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 7 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
52.6%
DeShone Kizer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:03
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+24
52.6%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 24 yds to the MiaFl 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
52.7%
Kizer, DeShone rush for 1 yard to the MIAMI9, PENALTY MIAMI offside 5 yards to the MIAMI5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
53.9%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 5 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:3546% → 45%
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
53.6%
Gus Edwards run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
53.9%
Mark Walton run for no gain to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-5
54.4%
Mark Walton run for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaFl 17Similar
Q1 9:29
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
54.9%
Justin Vogel punt for 39 yds, fair catch by C.J. Sanders at the NDame 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3FG
12 plays · 36 yds · 2:4655% → 57%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
55.1%
C.J. Sanders run for 12 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
55.4%
Josh Adams run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+2
55.8%
Josh Adams run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+5
55.8%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Tarean Folston for 5 yds to the MiaFl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
56.2%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 15
OPP 37
+15
56.0%
Kizer, DeShone pass incomplete, PENALTY MIAMI personal foul 15 yards to the MIAMI22, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
56.6%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Nic WeisharSimilar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+2
56.7%
DeShone Kizer run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q1 6:38
3RD & 8
OPP 20
0
56.9%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Kevin StephersonSimilar
Q1 6:34
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+37
57.0%
Justin Yoon 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4INT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:4943% → 42%
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
57.1%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-2
57.4%
Joseph Yearby run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 12
OWN 19
+14
58.0%
Brad Kaaya pass intercepted Cole Luke return for 14 yds to the MiaFl 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5TD
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:0759% → 69%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
58.9%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Torii Hunter Jr.Similar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-10
59.1%
Adams, Josh rush for 8 yards to the MIAMI5, PENALTY NOTREDAME holding 10 yards to the MIAMI23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 20
OPP 23
+9
59.0%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 9 yds to the MiaFl 14Similar
Q1 4:23
3RD & 11
OPP 14
+14
68.7%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 14 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 2:1936% → 33%
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
64.2%
Mark Walton run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
64.5%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
65.4%
Mark Walton run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q1 2:49
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-5
65.9%
MIAMI FL Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+6
66.2%
Brad Kaaya run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q1 1:50
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+9
66.8%
Justin Vogel punt for 59 yds , C.J. Sanders returns for 9 yds to the NDame 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:0773% → 77%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
72.5%
Tarean Folston run for 5 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 5
OWN 28
-1
73.2%
Tarean Folston run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 27Similar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+8
73.2%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Tarean Folston for 8 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
74.2%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Tarean Folston for 7 yds to the NDame 42Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
75.3%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Tarean Folston for 4 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
75.6%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Chris FinkeSimilar
Q2 14:24
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
76.4%
DeShone Kizer run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+1
76.7%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Miles Boykin for 1 yd to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q2 13:23
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
76.8%
Tyler Newsome punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the MiaFl 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:0029% → 27%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+10
71.2%
Mark Walton run for 10 yds to the MiaFl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
71.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 11 yds to the MiaFl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
71.4%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Isaac Rochell for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+2
72.5%
Mark Walton run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
73.1%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Braxton BerriosSimilar
Q2 11:05
4TH & 10
OWN 31
+19
73.5%
Justin Vogel punt for 50 yds , C.J. Sanders returns for 19 yds to the NDame 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9FG
6 plays · 53 yds · 0:1981% → 85%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+53
81.3%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Kevin Stepherson for 53 yds to the MiaFl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
81.0%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Torii Hunter Jr.Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
81.1%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Kevin StephersonSimilar
Q2 10:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
80.7%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Durham SmytheSimilar
Q2 10:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
85.0%
Justin Yoon 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q2 10:31
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+15
84.5%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10FUMBLE
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0919% → 17%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
81.2%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Asmar Bilal for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+7
81.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Joseph Yearby for 7 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
82.7%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Ahmmon RichardsSimilar
Q2 8:51
4TH & 10
OWN 25
-2
82.9%
Justin Vogel punt for 35 yds , Troy Pride Jr. returns for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 38 Troy Pride Jr. fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Travis HomerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11TD
6 plays · 38 yds · 1:4019% → 30%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+24
81.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 24 yds to the NDame 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
80.1%
Kaaya, Brad pass incomplete, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference 12 yards to the NOTREDAME2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q2 7:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
80.9%
Joseph Yearby run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 4Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
81.6%
Joseph Yearby run for 2 yds to the NDame 2Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
70.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 2 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 1:1028% → 26%
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
71.6%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Dayall HarrisSimilar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+16
72.1%
Mark Walton run for 16 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
70.7%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
70.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Ahmmon RichardsSimilar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 10
OPP 37
-17
72.3%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Nyles Morgan for a loss of 17 yards to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q2 5:33
4TH & 27
OWN 46
0
74.3%
Justin Vogel punt for 42 yds, fair catch by C.J. Sanders at the NDame 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:2473% → 74%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+15
73.3%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Chris Finke for 15 yds to the NDame 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
73.5%
Dexter Williams run for 3 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+9
73.8%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 9 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
75.0%
Dexter Williams run for no gain to the NDame 39Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
74.9%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Dexter Williams for 6 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 4
OWN 45
-5
74.9%
DeShone Kizer sacked by Shaquille Quarterman for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 40Similar
Q2 2:56
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
73.9%
Tyler Newsome punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 47 yds · 2:1024% → 26%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
75.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 12 yds to the MiaFl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
75.7%
Gus Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+6
76.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 6 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+21
75.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 21 yds to the NDame 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
73.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 5 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 5
OPP 38
-10
72.6%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NDame 48Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 15
OPP 48
+14
76.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Mark Walton for 14 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 1
OPP 34
0
72.9%
Joseph Yearby run for no gain to the NDame 34Similar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 1
OPP 34
0
73.9%
Joseph Yearby run for no gain to the NDame 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
77.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16TD
16 plays · 76 yds · 6:0424% → 35%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
75.9%
Mark Walton run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 6
OWN 28
-9
76.0%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Jarron Jones for a loss of 9 yards to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 15
OWN 19
+16
77.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Mark Walton for 16 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
77.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 4 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
77.1%
Mark Walton run for no gain to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+15
77.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 15 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
77.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 7 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+11
77.6%
Kaaya, Brad pass incomplete to Richards, Ahmmon, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference 11 yards to the NOTREDAME28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
76.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 9 yds to the NDame 19Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+3
77.1%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the NDame 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-6
77.3%
Ahmmon Richards run for 4 yds to the NDame 12 MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NDame 22Similar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 16
OPP 22
0
78.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 16
OPP 22
+21
78.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 21 yds to the NDame 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
60.0%
Mark Walton run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
65.0%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the MiaFl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:4471% → 67%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
71.2%
Josh Adams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 45Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 12
OWN 45
0
69.8%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Torii Hunter Jr.Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 12
OWN 45
0
68.5%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Torii Hunter Jr.Similar
Q3 7:31
4TH & 12
OWN 45
0
67.0%
Tyler Newsome punt for 23 yds, downed at the MiaFl 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18FG
11 plays · 42 yds · 2:4435% → 38%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
65.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Braxton BerriosSimilar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
66.0%
Ahmmon Richards run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+8
66.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 8 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+20
63.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 20 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
66.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 12 yds to the NDame 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
64.9%
Gus Edwards run for 3 yds to the NDame 21Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 7
OPP 21
0
65.7%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Ahmmon RichardsSimilar
Q3 4:51
3RD & 7
OPP 21
-5
67.7%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NDame 26Similar
Q3 4:47
3RD & 12
OPP 26
0
69.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q3 4:41
4TH & 12
OPP 26
+43
62.1%
Michael Badgley 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 43 yds · 2:3564% → 67%
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
64.2%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 24 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
67.4%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to C.J. Sanders for 5 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+8
68.4%
DeShone Kizer run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
68.4%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Josh Adams for no gain to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+8
68.3%
DeShone Kizer run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q3 2:05
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+1
68.6%
Tarean Folston run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q3 1:53
4TH & 1
OPP 29
-3
67.0%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to C.J. Sanders for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20FG
11 plays · 48 yds · 4:0236% → 49%
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
63.7%
Mark Walton run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
64.3%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q3 0:54
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+14
65.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Dayall Harris for 14 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
60.6%
Mark Walton run for 4 yds to the NDame 49Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+4
60.0%
Mark Walton run for 4 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+5
62.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 5 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+16
61.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 16 yds to the NDame 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
59.8%
Mark Walton run for 2 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+2
59.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 2 yds to the NDame 20Similar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 6
OPP 20
0
61.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Joseph YearbySimilar
Q4 12:30
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+38
51.2%
Michael Badgley 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:0258% → 56%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
58.2%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Dexter Williams for 3 yds to the NDame 25Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+3
58.9%
Dexter Williams run for 3 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q4 11:02
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+12
57.4%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 12 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
61.6%
Josh Adams run for 1 yd to the NDame 41Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
60.7%
DeShone Kizer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:03
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
58.5%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Equanimeous St. BrownSimilar
Q4 9:48
4TH & 9
OWN 41
+30
56.4%
Tyler Newsome punt for 52 yds , Braxton Berrios returns for 30 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22TD
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:4949% → 81%
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
51.2%
Mark Walton run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+10
49.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
50
-1
47.3%
Mark Walton run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+2
49.3%
Mark Walton run for 2 yds to the NDame 49Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+5
48.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 5 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q4 6:49
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
19.5%
Justin Vogel punt for 40 yds , C.J. Sanders returns for a loss of 4 yards for a TD C.J. Sanders fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Michael Jackson for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 23TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:4724% → 64%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
23.9%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Kevin Stepherson for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
50
0
27.9%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Kevin StephersonSimilar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 10
50
+9
26.3%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 9 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q4 5:53
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+41
63.6%
Josh Adams run for 41 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:5949% → 44%
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
51.5%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 10
OWN 18
-4
51.8%
Mark Walton run for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 14Similar
Q4 4:58
3RD & 14
OWN 14
0
53.9%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Ahmmon RichardsSimilar
Q4 4:43
4TH & 14
OWN 14
+23
55.7%
Justin Vogel punt for 49 yds , Chris Finke returns for 23 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 25FG
16 plays · 34 yds · 3:5865% → 93%
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
64.5%
DeShone Kizer run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+10
64.5%
Josh Adams run for 10 yds to the MiaFl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
66.8%
Josh Adams run for 14 yds to the MiaFl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
67.0%
DeShone Kizer run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 9Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+2
67.1%
Tarean Folston run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 7Similar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+5
62.2%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Durham Smythe for 5 yds Durham Smythe fumbled, recovered by NDameSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
65.0%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive Offside (1 Yards) to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q4 1:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
65.7%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 6Similar
Q4 1:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
65.0%
Josh Adams run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 5Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
67.9%
Josh Adams run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 3Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
64.7%
Josh Adams run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q4 0:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
63.0%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 6Similar
Q4 0:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
93.4%
Justin Yoon 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 26END OF GAME
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:1912% → 15%
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
88.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 14 yds to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
85.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Mark Walton for 8 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q4 0:13
2ND & 2
OWN 47
0
82.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q4 0:05
3RD & 2
OWN 47
-6
85.5%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Nyles Morgan for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaFl 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:53
Josh Adams run for 41 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)
+37.3
FG · Q4 0:30
Justin Yoon 23 yd FG GOOD
+30.4
TD · Q4 6:49
Justin Vogel punt for 40 yds , C.J. Sanders returns for a loss of 4 yards for a TD C.J. Sanders fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Michael Jackson for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)
-28.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com