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DUKE

Duke 38 at Notre Dame 35

ND
2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG-28.1ND 12.3%AJ Reed 19 yd FG GOODAWAY 38 - HOME 35 · Q4 1:24
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:24 · AJ Reed 19 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 172Pregame prior+1.2Home team on offense−26.1Score differential−5.4Garbage-time factor−9.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−8.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:22: Daniel Jones pass complete to Anthony Nash for 32 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK) — DUKE win probability +13.3 pts (now 37%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:54: Josh Adams run for 9 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +14.6 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:46: DeShone Kizer pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 12 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +18.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:47: Daniel Jones pass complete to Anthony Nash for 64 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK) — DUKE win probability +29.4 pts (now 47%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 1:24: AJ Reed 19 yd FG GOOD — DUKE win probability +28.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 6DUKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 12:07DUKE 4th & 9 at DUKE 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:44ND 4th & 1 at ND 41, up 7
    Close callPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:00ND 4th & 13 at DUKE 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    84.0%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00DUKE 4th & 1 at ND 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    15.3%−0.4
    66% to make
    Punt
    14.0%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:25ND 4th & 4 at ND 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:21DUKE 4th & 3 at DUKE 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:52ND 4th & 14 at ND 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−1.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:25DUKE 4th & 6 at ND 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:29DUKE 4th & 18 at DUKE 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−4.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:49ND 4th & 16 at DUKE 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−3.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00DUKE 4th & 1 at ND 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    33.6%−4.0
    77% to make
    Punt
    21.1%−16.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:24DUKE 4th & 1 at ND 1, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 15.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.3%−15.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    -2.3%−51.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:27ND 4th & 3 at ND 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.6%−9.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 5DUKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 12:07ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:57ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:44DUKE Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 3:32DUKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:35DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:28ND Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:22DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:54ND Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:46ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%−1.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:47DUKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5390% → 90%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
90.2%
Malik Zaire run for 4 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
90.2%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete, broken up by Bryon FieldsSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+26
90.2%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 26 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+18
90.2%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Durham Smythe for 18 yds to the Duke 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
90.2%
Josh Adams run for 2 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+17
90.2%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 17 yds to the Duke 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
90.2%
DeShone Kizer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
90.0%
DeShone Kizer run for 8 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
89.8%
Jela Duncan run for no gain to the Duke 22Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+1
89.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 1 yd to the Duke 23Similar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 9
OWN 23
0
89.8%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming DUKE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 12:07
4TH & 9
OWN 23
+12
89.9%
Austin Parker punt for 53 yds , C.J. Sanders returns for 12 yds to the NDame 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 1:4890% → 90%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
89.7%
Josh Adams run for 3 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+12
89.8%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Josh Adams for 12 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
89.8%
Josh Adams run for 5 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+44
90.4%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Kevin Stepherson for 44 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
89.4%
Tarean Folston run for 5 yds to the NDame 37Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+1
89.5%
DeShone Kizer run for 1 yd to the NDame 38Similar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+3
89.4%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 3 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q1 8:44
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+4
89.3%
Tyler Newsome punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 22 , Ryan Smith returns for 4 yds to the Duke 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 3:0811% → 14%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
89.0%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+4
89.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Quay Chambers for 4 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+24
89.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 24 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
88.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 2 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+4
88.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 4 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+13
88.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 13 yds to the NDame 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
88.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 9 yds to the NDame 18Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+18
85.7%
Jela Duncan run for 18 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7MISSED FG
10 plays · 41 yds · 3:3287% → 85%
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
86.7%
DeShone Kizer run for 6 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+28
87.1%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 28 yds to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
87.3%
Josh Adams run for 2 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+20
87.3%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Kevin Stepherson for 20 yds Kevin Stepherson fumbled, forced by Breon Borders, recovered by NDame Kevin Stepherson for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
87.3%
DeShone Kizer run for 5 yds to the Duke 16Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 5
OPP 16
-3
87.3%
Tarean Folston run for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 19Similar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 8
OPP 19
-5
87.1%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Duke 24Similar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 13
OPP 24
0
86.9%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Equanimeous St. BrownSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 13
OPP 24
+42
85.2%
Justin Yoon 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8DOWNS
10 plays · 50 yds · 0:0015% → 16%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
84.8%
Daniel Jones run for 10 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
84.7%
Jela Duncan run for 6 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-3
84.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+17
84.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 17 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
84.0%
Shaun Wilson run for 8 yds to the NDame 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+3
83.9%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 3 yds to the NDame 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
83.8%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 1 yd to the NDame 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+7
83.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 7 yds to the NDame 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+1
84.0%
Jela Duncan run for 1 yd to the NDame 25Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 25
0
84.4%
Jela Duncan run for no gain to the NDame 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
83.6%
Malik Zaire sacked by Ben Humphreys and Jordan Hayes for a loss of 12 yards to the NDame 13Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+11
83.4%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 11 yds to the NDame 24Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+7
82.9%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 7 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q2 10:25
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+18
83.0%
Tyler Newsome punt for 58 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 29 , Ryan Smith returns for 18 yds to the Duke 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
81.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+3
81.1%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 3
OWN 36
0
81.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q2 8:21
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
81.9%
Austin Parker punt for 44 yds, fair catch by C.J. Sanders at the NDame 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11FUMBLE
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0082% → 83%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
82.1%
Tarean Folston run for 8 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 2
OWN 28
-4
82.8%
DeShone Kizer run for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 25 DeShone Kizer fumbled, recovered by Duke Ben HumphreysSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
71.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Quay Chambers for 25 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 3:0774% → 83%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+20
74.1%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Kevin Stepherson for 20 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
75.6%
Josh Adams run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 8
50
0
75.8%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to C.J. SandersSimilar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 8
50
+20
75.0%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Miles Boykin for 20 yds to the Duke 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
76.8%
Josh Adams run for 5 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+4
76.8%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to C.J. Sanders for 4 yds to the Duke 21Similar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+5
76.0%
Josh Adams run for 5 yds to the Duke 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
76.8%
Tarean Folston run for 3 yds to the Duke 13Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+13
82.6%
Dexter Williams run for 13 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 2:0622% → 37%
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
77.9%
Jela Duncan run for 4 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+9
77.3%
Daniel Jones run for 9 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
76.6%
Jela Duncan run for 1 yd to the Duke 44Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+12
76.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 12 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
76.1%
Jela Duncan run for 12 yds to the NDame 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
62.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Anthony Nash for 32 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 11 yds · 0:3069% → 66%
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
68.6%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Equanimeous St. BrownSimilar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
68.4%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Equanimeous St. Brown, broken up by Alonzo Saxton IISimilar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+15
67.3%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
50
-4
70.9%
DeShone Kizer sacked by A.J. Wolf for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 46Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 14
OWN 46
0
67.4%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to C.J. Sanders, broken up by Breon BordersSimilar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 14
OWN 46
0
66.4%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Torii Hunter Jr., broken up by Breon BordersSimilar
Q2 0:52
4TH & 14
OWN 46
0
65.5%
Tyler Newsome punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
65.4%
Jela Duncan run for 8 yds to the Duke 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 1:3535% → 40%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
64.8%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Duke 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+7
64.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Anthony Nash for 7 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+7
64.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Anthony Nash for 7 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
59.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 12 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
58.9%
Daniel Jones run for 5 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 5
OPP 47
-1
58.4%
Shaun Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 48Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
59.0%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris Taylor, broken up by Cole LukeSimilar
Q3 13:25
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
60.2%
Austin Parker punt for 31 yds, downed at the NDame 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18FUMBLE
3 plays · 43 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
60.5%
Dexter Williams run for 8 yds to the NDame 25Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+4
61.3%
Dexter Williams run for 4 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+31
61.1%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 31 yds Equanimeous St. Brown fumbled, forced by Bryon Fields, recovered by Duke Breon BordersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:0045% → 41%
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
54.9%
Jela Duncan run for 4 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+6
55.0%
Jela Duncan run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
50
+2
54.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Anthony Nash for 2 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+2
54.4%
Jela Duncan run for 2 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q3 10:29
3RD & 6
OPP 46
-7
54.8%
Daniel Jones sacked by Nyles Morgan for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 47Similar
Q3 10:29
4TH & 13
OWN 47
-5
59.0%
DUKE Penalty, false start (Chris Taylor) to the Duke 42Similar
Q3 10:29
4TH & 18
OWN 42
0
59.4%
Austin Parker punt for 41 yds, fair catch by C.J. Sanders at the NDame 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20TD
6 plays · 83 yds · 2:3255% → 76%
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
54.9%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Josh AdamsSimilar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+23
54.5%
DeShone Kizer run for 23 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+30
57.9%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to C.J. Sanders for 30 yds to the Duke 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
61.4%
Josh Adams run for 15 yds to the Duke 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
61.4%
Josh Adams run for 6 yds to the Duke 9Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+9
76.1%
Josh Adams run for 9 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21INT
7 plays · 52 yds · 0:0032% → 36%
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
68.1%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Daniel Helm, broken up by James OnwualuSimilar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+23
68.8%
Shaun Wilson run for 23 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+23
65.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Quay Chambers for 8 yds to the NDame 47 for a 1ST down NOTRE DAME Penalty, personal foul (Isaac Rochell) to the NDame 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
63.9%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+2
62.0%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 4
OPP 32
0
63.6%
Daniel Jones pass intercepted, touchback. Donte Vaughn return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:0070% → 68%
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+25
69.9%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 25 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
73.2%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 5
50
+7
73.8%
DeShone Kizer run for 7 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
74.2%
Josh Adams run for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 49 Josh Adams fumbled, recovered by NDame Josh AdamsSimilar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 16
OPP 49
0
72.0%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Torii Hunter Jr., broken up by Breon BordersSimilar
Q3 2:49
3RD & 16
OPP 49
0
70.1%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Nic WeisharSimilar
Q3 2:49
4TH & 16
OPP 49
0
68.3%
Tyler Newsome punt for 35 yds, downed at the Duke 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23DOWNS
11 plays · 67 yds · 0:2635% → 39%
Q3 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
64.8%
Jela Duncan run for 5 yds to the Duke 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+9
64.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Quay Chambers for 9 yds to the Duke 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
63.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Anthony NashSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+32
64.5%
Jela Duncan run for 32 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
59.1%
Jela Duncan run for no gain to the NDame 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+9
59.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 9 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+3
58.7%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the NDame 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
56.8%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Quay Chambers, broken up by Avery SebastianSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
57.6%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Erich SchneiderSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+9
59.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Quay Chambers for 9 yds to the NDame 19Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 19
0
60.9%
Jela Duncan run for no gain to the NDame 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24TD
9 plays · 81 yds · 4:0666% → 90%
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
65.6%
Josh Adams run for 5 yds to the NDame 24Similar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+4
65.9%
Tarean Folston run for 4 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+4
65.0%
Josh Adams run for 4 yds to the NDame 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
66.3%
Josh Adams run for 3 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+27
66.5%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to C.J. Sanders for 27 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
70.9%
DeShone Kizer run for 7 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+17
72.0%
DeShone Kizer run for 17 yds to the Duke 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
72.0%
Dexter Williams run for 2 yds to the Duke 12Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
90.4%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 12 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5916% → 47%
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
84.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 7 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
82.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
52.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Anthony Nash for 64 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 26INT
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:0061% → 57%
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-3
60.7%
Dexter Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 12Similar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 13
OWN 12
-7
60.4%
DeShone Kizer sacked by Marquies Price for a loss of 7 yards to the NDame 5Similar
Q4 6:47
3RD & 20
OWN 5
0
56.8%
DeShone Kizer pass intercepted Dylan Singleton return for no gain to the NDame 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 27FG
13 plays · 44 yds · 3:4753% → 88%
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
47.0%
Jela Duncan run for 7 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+1
46.3%
Jela Duncan run for 1 yd to the NDame 37Similar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+7
46.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Erich Schneider for 7 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
44.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Anthony Nash for 11 yds to the NDame 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
44.1%
Jela Duncan run for 3 yds to the NDame 16Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+10
44.1%
Jela Duncan run for 10 yds to the NDame 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
44.1%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the NDame 4Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
40.1%
Jela Duncan run for 1 yd to the NDame 3Similar
Q4 2:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
40.9%
Daniel Jones run for 2 yds to the NDame 1Similar
Q4 1:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
12.3%
AJ Reed 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 28DOWNS
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
25.9%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 11 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
26.8%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Torii Hunter Jr.Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
26.4%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Equanimeous St. BrownSimilar
Q4 1:27
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+7
24.2%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Josh Adams for 7 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q4 1:27
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
25.1%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Equanimeous St. BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
5.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:47
Daniel Jones pass complete to Anthony Nash for 64 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)
-29.4
FG · Q4 1:24
AJ Reed 19 yd FG GOOD
-28.1
TD · Q4 7:46
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 12 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)
+18.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com