Try the model
MSU

Michigan State 36 at Notre Dame 28

ND
2016 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2016 · Notre Dame Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ND
modelND aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:31 · Jake Hartbarger punt for 30 yds, fair catch by C.J. Sanders at the NDame 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 21Home team on offense−0.6Pregame prior+19.5Score differential−0.5Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:30: Donnie Corley 38 Yd pass from Tyler O'Connor (Matt Macksood Pass to Josiah Price for Two-Point Conversion) — MSU win probability +11.6 pts (now 37%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:48: Gerald Holmes 3 Yd Run (Michael Geiger Kick) — MSU win probability +15.9 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:28: LJ Scott 9 Yd Run (Michael Geiger Kick) — MSU win probability +14.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:45: DeShone Kizer 3 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick) — ND win probability +15.2 pts (now 19%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:02: Durham Smythe 12 Yd pass from DeShone Kizer (Justin Yoon Kick) — ND win probability +15.2 pts (now 24%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 7MSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 13:10ND 4th & 10 at ND 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:27MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    31.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:31MSU 4th & 6 at ND 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    32.2%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:59ND 4th & 12 at ND 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−1.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:38MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 18, down 7
    Close callPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:11MSU 4th & 5 at ND 39, up 1
    Close callPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    37.8%−0.9
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:06ND 4th & 1 at ND 21, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:09MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 25, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:41ND 4th & 12 at ND 38, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−2.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:26ND 4th & 6 at ND 30, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:08MSU 4th & 3 at MSU 44, up 22
    Close callPunted · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:02ND 4th & 1 at MSU 4, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    2.2%−1.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    -2.5%−6.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:47MSU 4th & 12 at MSU 31, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%−1.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:18MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 35, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:30ND 4th & 7 at ND 32, down 8
    Close callPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 2 of 4MSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 3:07ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:30MSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    33.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    32.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:23MSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:48MSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:28MSU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:45MSU Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:40ND Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:45ND Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.9%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:02ND Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 2.4 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.5%−2.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 1:1472% → 72%
Q1 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+19
72.1%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 19 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
72.0%
Josh Adams run for 5 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+7
72.0%
Josh Adams run for 7 yds to the NDame 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
72.0%
DeShone Kizer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
72.0%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to C.J. SandersSimilar
Q1 13:18
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
71.9%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Torii Hunter Jr.Similar
Q1 13:10
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
71.8%
Tyler Newsome punt for 35 yds, downed at the MchSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2PUNT
13 plays · 37 yds · 5:2428% → 30%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
71.8%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 3 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+5
71.8%
LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+3
71.6%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to LJ Scott for 3 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
71.5%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+3
71.3%
Tyler O'Connor run for 3 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+3
71.1%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Prescott Line for 3 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q1 10:27
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+2
71.2%
Tyler O'Connor run for 2 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
70.7%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+9
70.5%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 9 yds to the NDame 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
70.3%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the NDame 42Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 9
OPP 42
0
70.2%
Tyler O'Connor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:39
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+3
70.1%
Tyler O'Connor run for 3 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q1 7:31
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
70.3%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 30 yds, fair catch by C.J. Sanders at the NDame 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3TD
11 plays · 91 yds · 3:4971% → 75%
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-3
70.5%
Josh Adams run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 6Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 13
OWN 6
+5
70.4%
Josh Adams run for 5 yds to the NDame 11Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 8
OWN 11
+9
70.0%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Corey Holmes for 9 yds to the NDame 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
70.2%
Josh Adams run for 4 yds to the NDame 24Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+48
70.3%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 48 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
71.3%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Josh Adams for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 30Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 12
OPP 30
+15
71.2%
Kizer, DeShone pass incomplete to Sanders, C.J., PENALTY MICHIGANST personal foul 15 yards to the MICHIGANST15, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
71.3%
Tarean Folston run for 9 yds to the MchSt 6Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+3
71.3%
Tarean Folston run for 3 yds to the MchSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-11
71.3%
Tarean Folston run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 4 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the MchSt 14Similar
Q1 3:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
74.7%
DeShone Kizer 14 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4INT
9 plays · 53 yds · 3:3227% → 28%
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
73.2%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
73.0%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 27Similar
Q1 1:10
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+16
73.7%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 16 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
72.8%
Damion Terry run for 2 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+33
72.5%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Monty Madaris for 33 yds to the NDame 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
71.4%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 23Similar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+1
71.6%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Josiah Price for 1 yd to the NDame 22Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+30
72.3%
Tyler O'Connor pass intercepted Devin Studstill return for 30 yds to the NDame 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:3174% → 73%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-6
74.1%
DeShone Kizer sacked by Andrew Dowell for a loss of 6 yards to the NDame 27Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 16
OWN 27
+3
73.9%
Josh Adams run for 3 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 13
OWN 30
+1
73.4%
DeShone Kizer run for 1 yd to the NDame 31Similar
Q2 11:59
4TH & 12
OWN 31
0
73.0%
Tyler Newsome punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6FUMBLE
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:1026% → 25%
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
73.8%
Gerald Holmes run for 5 yds to the MchSt 17Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 5
OWN 17
-1
73.8%
Gerald Holmes run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 16Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+2
74.5%
Tyler O'Connor run for 2 yds to the MchSt 18Similar
Q2 9:38
4TH & 4
OWN 18
-2
75.1%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 42 yds , Miles Boykin returns for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 38 Miles Boykin fumbled, recovered by MchStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7TD
1 play · 38 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
63.5%
Donnie Corley 38 Yd pass from Tyler O'Connor (Matt Macksood Pass to Josiah Price for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 8FUMBLE
2 plays · 19 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
66.6%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to C.J. Sanders for 19 yds C.J. Sanders fumbled, recovered by MchStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3437% → 36%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
63.2%
Tyler O'Connor run for 5 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 5
OPP 39
0
62.8%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Felton Davis IIISimilar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 5
OPP 39
0
63.8%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Donnie CorleySimilar
Q2 8:11
4TH & 5
OPP 39
0
64.0%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 38 yds, downed at the NDame 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:5466% → 64%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
65.8%
DeShone Kizer run for 1 yd to the NDame 2Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+10
65.4%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 10 yds to the NDame 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
65.6%
Tarean Folston run for 1 yd to the NDame 13Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+3
65.4%
Josh Adams run for 3 yds to the NDame 16Similar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+5
64.3%
DeShone Kizer run for 5 yds to the NDame 21Similar
Q2 5:06
4TH & 1
OWN 21
0
63.8%
Tyler Newsome punt for 71 yds, downed at the MchSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11TD
12 plays · 92 yds · 4:1236% → 57%
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
64.0%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 12Similar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+3
63.3%
Prescott Line run for 3 yds to the MchSt 15Similar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 3
OWN 15
+23
63.6%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Josiah Price for 23 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
60.7%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Donnie Corley for 11 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
59.4%
Tyler O'Connor run for 6 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+13
58.5%
LJ Scott run for 13 yds to the NDame 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
57.5%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the NDame 31Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+4
57.2%
R.J. Shelton run for 4 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+6
57.9%
Tyler O'Connor run for 6 yds to the NDame 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
56.7%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Donnie Corley for 11 yds to the NDame 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
43.2%
R.J. Shelton 10 Yd pass from Tyler O'Connor (Michael Geiger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 12END OF HALF
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0948% → 50%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
48.0%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Josh Adams for 2 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+23
47.9%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Kevin Stepherson for 23 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
50.3%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4454% → 52%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.1%
Tyler O'Connor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
46.3%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to R.J. Shelton for no gain to the MchSt 25Similar
Q3 14:19
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
47.0%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q3 14:09
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+3
47.8%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 40 yds , C.J. Sanders returns for 3 yds to the NDame 28 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the NDame 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:0947% → 44%
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
47.2%
Josh Adams run for 5 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 5
OWN 28
0
47.5%
DeShone Kizer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+12
46.3%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Josh Adams for 12 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
48.7%
DeShone Kizer run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 38Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 12
OWN 38
0
46.4%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to C.J. SandersSimilar
Q3 12:49
3RD & 12
OWN 38
0
45.2%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Torii Hunter Jr.Similar
Q3 12:41
4TH & 12
OWN 38
0
44.1%
Tyler Newsome punt for 37 yds, fair catch by R.J. Shelton at the MchSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:3456% → 79%
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
43.8%
LJ Scott run for 7 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+11
42.7%
LJ Scott run for 11 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
41.2%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the MchSt 44Similar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+6
40.8%
Gerald Holmes run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:03
3RD & 3
50
+7
40.2%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Monty Madaris for 7 yds to the NDame 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
39.2%
O'Connor, Tyler pass incomplete to Shelton, R.J., PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference 15 yards to the NOTREDAME28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
37.6%
Gerald Holmes run for 6 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+5
36.8%
Gerald Holmes run for 5 yds to the NDame 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
36.2%
Gerald Holmes run for no gain to the NDame 17Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+14
37.0%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 14 yds to the NDame 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
21.1%
Gerald Holmes 3 Yd Run (Michael Geiger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:1127% → 27%
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.1%
Josh Adams run for no gain to the NDame 25Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
26.7%
DeShone Kizer pass intercepted Jon Reschke return for no gain to the NDame 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17TD
3 plays · 39 yds · 0:2279% → 94%
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
20.9%
LJ Scott run for 7 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+23
20.1%
LJ Scott run for 23 yds to the NDame 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
5.8%
LJ Scott 9 Yd Run (Michael Geiger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3610% → 8%
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
9.9%
Josh Adams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 25Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 11
OWN 25
0
9.2%
Josh Adams run for no gain to the NDame 25Similar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+5
8.5%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Josh Adams for 5 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q3 4:26
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
8.2%
Tyler Newsome punt for 48 yds, fair catch by R.J. Shelton at the MchSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19TD
2 plays · 78 yds · 0:3095% → 97%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
4.9%
R.J. Shelton run for 5 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+73
2.7%
Gerald Holmes 73 Yd Run (Michael Geiger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 0:523% → 8%
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+47
3.2%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 47 yds to the MchSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
3.7%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Equanimeous St. BrownSimilar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+3
3.6%
DeShone Kizer run for 3 yds to the MchSt 15Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+15
8.0%
Equanimeous St. Brown 15 Yd pass from DeShone Kizer (Justin Yoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:1196% → 97%
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
3.8%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 5 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q3 1:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
3.7%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the MchSt 31Similar
Q3 0:56
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
3.4%
Tyler O'Connor run for 6 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
3.1%
LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-2
2.9%
LJ Scott run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 38Similar
Q4 14:31
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+6
2.8%
Tyler O'Connor run for 6 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q4 14:08
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
3.0%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:054% → 19%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+33
4.0%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Chase Claypool for 33 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
4.4%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Equanimeous St. BrownSimilar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+34
4.3%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to C.J. Sanders for 34 yds to the MchSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
4.8%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 8 yds to the MchSt 5Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 2
OPP 5
0
4.7%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Miles BoykinSimilar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+1
4.4%
Tarean Folston run for 1 yd to the MchSt 4Similar
Q4 12:02
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+1
4.1%
Josh Adams run for 1 yd to the MchSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
4.2%
DeShone Kizer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
19.3%
DeShone Kizer 3 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 3:4392% → 95%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
8.0%
R.J. Shelton run for 7 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+2
7.2%
Gerald Holmes run for 2 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+3
7.2%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
6.5%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Prescott Line for 3 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+4
6.0%
Tyler O'Connor run for 4 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 3
OWN 40
-9
5.5%
Gerald Holmes run for a loss of 9 yards to the MchSt 31Similar
Q4 7:47
4TH & 12
OWN 31
0
5.5%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 1:378% → 24%
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
8.0%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+19
8.2%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Kevin Stepherson for 19 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
9.2%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Kevin StephersonSimilar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
9.2%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Durham SmytheSimilar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+12
8.5%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 12 yds to the MchSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
9.4%
DeShone Kizer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+11
9.0%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 11 yds to the MchSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
8.8%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Torii Hunter Jr.Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
24.0%
Durham Smythe 12 Yd pass from DeShone Kizer (Justin Yoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1588% → 88%
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
11.9%
LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
11.2%
Damion Terry run for no gain to the MchSt 35Similar
Q4 4:27
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
11.1%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q4 4:18
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+6
11.6%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 42 yds , C.J. Sanders returns for 6 yds to the NDame 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4215% → 12%
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
15.2%
DeShone Kizer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+8
14.0%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 8 yds to the NDame 37Similar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 2
OWN 37
-5
16.0%
DeShone Kizer sacked by Raequan Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 32Similar
Q4 3:30
4TH & 7
OWN 32
0
11.9%
Tyler Newsome punt for 54 yds, fair catch by R.J. Shelton at the MchSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 27END OF GAME
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:1192% → 98%
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
7.8%
LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 16Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+1
7.3%
LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the MchSt 17Similar
Q4 2:31
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+28
6.8%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Donnie Corley for 28 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
3.6%
Gerald Holmes run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 5
50
+2
3.4%
Gerald Holmes run for 2 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+23
3.3%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 23 yds to the NDame 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
2.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:48
Gerald Holmes 3 Yd Run (Michael Geiger Kick)
-15.9
TD · Q4 11:45
DeShone Kizer 3 Yd Run (Justin Yoon Kick)
+15.2
TD · Q4 6:02
Durham Smythe 12 Yd pass from DeShone Kizer (Justin Yoon Kick)
+15.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com