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NEV

Nevada 10 at Notre Dame 39

ND
2016 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2016 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDSAFETYTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:03 · Alex Boy punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 69Pregame prior+32.3Home team on offense+11.1Score differential+3.9Blowout margin+0.7Garbage-time factor+1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:35: DeShone Kizer pass complete to C.J. Sanders for 7 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon PAT MISSED) — ND win probability +1.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. SAFETY · Q2 10:30: Justin Yoon kickoff for 65 yds for a SAFETY , Ahki Muhammad return for no gain — ND win probability +0.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:23: DeShone Kizer pass complete to Kevin Stepherson for 4 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +2.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:35: Tarean Folston run for 2 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +2.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:30: DeShone Kizer run for 2 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +1.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 8NEV made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 11:47ND 4th & 1 at ND 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:30NEV 4th & 1 at ND 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    7.6%−0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    7.2%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:44ND 4th & 1 at ND 26, tied
    Close callPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:57ND 4th & 3 at NEV 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.7%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    88.7%−1.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:30NEV 4th & 10 at NEV 7, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:03NEV 4th & 8 at ND 45, down 18
    Close callPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:06NEV 4th & 10 at ND 49, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:34ND 4th & 2 at NEV 13, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    98.7%−0.2
    85% to make
    Punt
    97.5%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:54NEV 4th & 6 at ND 9, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:24ND 4th & 8 at NEV 33, up 29
    Close callWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%
    49% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:16NEV 4th & 7 at NEV 18, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:46ND 4th & 5 at ND 32, up 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:09NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 47, down 36
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:48ND 4th & 15 at ND 26, up 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:02NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 35, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:33ND 4th & 9 at ND 48, up 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NEV made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 10:35ND Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:23ND Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:35ND Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:30ND Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:38ND Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:19NEV Touchdown, down 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 3:0895% → 94%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.1%
DeShone Kizer run for 5 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
95.0%
Tarean Folston run for 4 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q1 13:56
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
94.9%
Josh Adams run for 2 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
94.8%
Josh Adams run for 7 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 3
OWN 43
-1
94.7%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to C.J. Sanders for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 42Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 4
OWN 42
-15
94.5%
Kizer, DeShone pass complete to St. Brown, Equanimeous for 29 yards to the NEVADA29, PENALTY NOTREDAME illegal block 15 yards to the NOTREDAME27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 19
OWN 27
+18
94.4%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 18 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q1 11:47
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
94.4%
Tyler Newsome punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nevad 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2DOWNS
13 plays · 62 yds · 5:076% → 7%
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
94.3%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 8 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 2
OWN 29
0
94.2%
James Butler run for no gain to the Nevad 29Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+3
94.1%
Asauni Rufus run for 3 yds to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
94.0%
Rufus, Asauni rush for no gain to the NEVADA32, PENALTY NOTREDAME face mask (Cage, Daniel) 15 yards to the NEVADA47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NEVADA.Similar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
93.8%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 7
50
-9
93.6%
Stewart, Tyler pass incomplete to Gonzalez, Victor, PENALTY NEVADA holding (Henry, Jacob) 9 yards to the NEVADA41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 16
OWN 41
+15
93.7%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to James Butler for 15 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+5
93.4%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jarron Jones) to the NDame 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
93.3%
Ty Gangi run for 13 yds to the NDame 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
93.1%
James Butler run for 6 yds to the NDame 20Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 4
OPP 20
0
92.9%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q1 7:03
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+3
92.9%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the NDame 17Similar
Q1 6:30
4TH & 1
OPP 17
0
92.9%
Asauni Rufus run for no gain to the NDame 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3893% → 92%
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
93.0%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 6 yds to the NDame 23Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 4
OWN 23
-1
92.9%
Tarean Folston run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 22Similar
Q1 5:18
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+4
92.6%
DeShone Kizer run for 4 yds to the NDame 26Similar
Q1 4:44
4TH & 1
OWN 26
+3
92.3%
Tyler Newsome punt for 53 yds , Andrew Celis returns for 3 yds to the Nevad 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:558% → 8%
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
92.3%
Stewart, Tyler pass complete to Henderson, Hasaan for 5 yards to the NEVADA29, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference (Luke, Cole) 5 yards to the NEVADA29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NEVADA.Similar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
92.2%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 8
OWN 31
0
92.0%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Ahki MuhammadSimilar
Q1 3:31
3RD & 8
OWN 31
-5
92.2%
NEVADA Penalty, False Start (Austin Corbett) to the Nevad 26Similar
Q1 3:26
3RD & 13
OWN 26
0
92.2%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Hasaan HendersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5FG
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:1692% → 91%
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
92.0%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Equanimeous St. BrownSimilar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+9
92.0%
Josh Adams run for 9 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q1 2:36
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+5
91.9%
Josh Adams run for 5 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
91.9%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Chase Claypool for 9 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+8
92.0%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to C.J. Sanders for 8 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
91.9%
Adams, Josh rush for 2 yards to the NEVADA45, PENALTY NOTREDAME holding (Nelson, Quenton) 10 yards to the NOTREDAME43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:53
1ST & 20
OWN 43
+3
91.5%
DeShone Kizer run for 3 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 17
OWN 46
+49
91.2%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 49 yds to the Nevad 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
91.6%
Tarean Folston run for a loss of 5 yards to the Nevad 10 Tarean Folston fumbled, forced by Patrick Choudja, recovered by NDame DeShone KizerSimilar
Q2 14:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
91.5%
DeShone Kizer run for 4 yds to the Nevad 6Similar
Q2 13:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
91.1%
Josh Adams run for 3 yds to the Nevad 3Similar
Q2 12:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
90.9%
Justin Yoon 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:309% → 9%
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
90.8%
Akeel Lynch run for 7 yds to the Nevad 14Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 3
OWN 14
-7
90.6%
Ahki Muhammad run for a loss of 7 yards to the Nevad 7Similar
Q2 11:30
4TH & 10
OWN 7
+24
91.0%
Alex Boy punt for 42 yds , C.J. Sanders returns for 24 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 10
OWN 7
0
90.7%
Tyler Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:3791% → 93%
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
91.0%
Tarean Folston run for 4 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+14
90.9%
Josh Adams run for 14 yds to the Nevad 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
92.7%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to C.J. Sanders for 7 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 8SF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
93.1%
Justin Yoon kickoff for 65 yds for a SAFETY , Ahki Muhammad return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
93.2%
DeShone Kizer pass intercepted Kendall Johnson return for no gain to the Nevad 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10INT
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:377% → 7%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
92.6%
Tyler Stewart run for 3 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 7
OWN 21
-10
92.7%
Stewart, Tyler rush for 10 yards to the NEVADA31, PENALTY NEVADA holding (Goltry, Nathan) 10 yards to the NEVADA11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 17
OWN 11
+5
92.7%
Tyler Stewart pass intercepted Jarron Jones return for 5 yds to the Nevad 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11TD
3 plays · 4 yds · 1:0293% → 95%
Q2 9:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
93.3%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Josh Adams for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 5Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
93.2%
DeShone Kizer run for 1 yd to the Nevad 4Similar
Q2 8:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
95.4%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Kevin Stepherson for 4 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:115% → 5%
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.0%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 3 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
94.8%
Stewart, Tyler pass pass intercepted by Luke, Cole at the NOTREDAME35, Luke, Cole return 0 yards to the NOTREDAME35, PENALTY NOTREDAME roughing passer (Hayes, Jay) 15 yards to the NEVADA43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NEVADA.Similar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
94.7%
James Butler run for 8 yds to the NDame 49Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+2
94.3%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the NDame 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
94.4%
Ty Gangi run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 13
50
+10
94.7%
James Butler run for 10 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q2 5:10
4TH & 3
OPP 40
-5
94.5%
NEVADA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NDame 45Similar
Q2 5:03
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
94.8%
Alex Boy punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13TD
17 plays · 88 yds · 4:2095% → 98%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
95.1%
Josh Adams run for 4 yds to the NDame 16Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+1
95.1%
Tarean Folston run for 1 yd to the NDame 17 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Illegal Formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 5
OWN 17
-9
95.0%
Kizer, DeShone pass complete to St. Brown, Equanimeous for 24 yards to the NOTREDAME41, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference (Sanders, C.J.) 9 yards to the NOTREDAME8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:29
3RD & 14
OWN 8
+15
94.0%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Corey Holmes for 15 yds to the NDame 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
95.1%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Chris Finke for 7 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+7
95.1%
Tarean Folston run for 7 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
95.1%
DeShone Kizer run for 6 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+2
95.3%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 2 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+5
95.1%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
50
+10
95.4%
Kizer, DeShone pass incomplete to Stepherson, Kevin, PENALTY NEVADA pass interference (Moody, Elijah) 10 yards to the NEVADA40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
95.4%
Tarean Folston run for 7 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 3
OPP 33
0
94.9%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Equanimeous St. BrownSimilar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+25
94.6%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to C.J. Sanders for 25 yds to the Nevad 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
94.9%
DeShone Kizer run for 6 yds to the Nevad 2Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.6%
Tarean Folston run for 2 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
96.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 1:482% → 2%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
97.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 12 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
97.8%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q3 13:57
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+10
98.0%
James Butler run for 10 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
98.0%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Hasaan HendersonSimilar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
98.0%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Austin CarrowSimilar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
98.3%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q3 13:06
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
98.3%
Alex Boy punt for 34 yds, fair catch by C.J. Sanders at the NDame 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 4:2799% → 100%
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+16
98.7%
Josh Adams run for 16 yds to the NDame 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
98.8%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 5 yds to the NDame 36Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+43
98.9%
Josh Adams run for 43 yds to the Nevad 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
98.9%
Tarean Folston run for 4 yds to the Nevad 17Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+2
99.0%
DeShone Kizer run for 2 yds to the Nevad 15Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+2
99.0%
DeShone Kizer run for 2 yds to the Nevad 13Similar
Q3 9:34
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+7
98.7%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to C.J. Sanders for 7 yds to the Nevad 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
98.6%
Tarean Folston run for 4 yds to the Nevad 2Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.7%
DeShone Kizer run for 2 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17FG
13 plays · 66 yds · 4:311% → 0%
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.5%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 6 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
99.2%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
99.2%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
99.3%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to James Butler for 11 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
99.1%
James Butler run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 43Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 13
OWN 43
0
99.2%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Ahki MuhammadSimilar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+44
99.2%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 44 yds to the NDame 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-2
98.9%
James Butler run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 15Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 12
OPP 15
+5
98.8%
Ahki Muhammad run for 5 yds to the NDame 10Similar
Q3 4:44
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+1
99.0%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the NDame 9Similar
Q3 3:54
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+27
99.6%
Brent Zuzo 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18TD
9 plays · 57 yds · 2:58100% → 100%
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+22
99.8%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Kevin Stepherson for 22 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
99.8%
Dexter Williams run for 5 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 5
OPP 30
-3
99.8%
Malik Zaire run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 33Similar
Q3 2:18
3RD & 8
OPP 33
-5
99.8%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Mike McGlinchey) to the Nevad 38Similar
Q3 1:59
3RD & 13
OPP 38
+5
99.8%
NEVADA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Patrick Choudja) to the Nevad 33Similar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 8
OPP 33
0
99.8%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to Chris FinkeSimilar
Q3 1:24
4TH & 8
OPP 33
+9
99.8%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Kevin Stepherson for 9 yds to the Nevad 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Dexter Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:440% → 0%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
99.9%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the Nevad 16Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 16
0
99.9%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q4 14:38
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+2
99.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to James Butler for 2 yds to the Nevad 18Similar
Q4 14:16
4TH & 7
OWN 18
0
99.9%
Alex Boy punt for 68 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:13100% → 100%
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
99.9%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Chase Claypool for 6 yds to the NDame 20Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+7
99.9%
Dexter Williams run for 7 yds to the NDame 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Malik Zaire run for no gain to the NDame 27Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+5
99.9%
Dexter Williams run for 5 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 5
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to Kevin StephersonSimilar
Q4 11:46
4TH & 5
OWN 32
+4
99.9%
Tyler Newsome punt for 53 yds , Andrew Celis returns for 4 yds to the Nevad 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 28 yds · 1:170% → 0%
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+20
99.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to James Butler for 20 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
99.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 8 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 2
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Andrew CelisSimilar
Q4 10:13
3RD & 2
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q4 10:09
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Alex Boy punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:15100% → 100%
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
99.9%
Zaire, Malik pass incomplete to Finke, Chris, PENALTY NEVADA pass interference (Baber, Dameon) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
99.9%
Malik Zaire run for 1 yd to the NDame 32Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 9
OWN 32
-6
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the NDame 26Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 15
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q4 8:48
4TH & 15
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Tyler Newsome punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Andrew Celis at the Nevad 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:380% → 0%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
99.9%
Tyler Stewart run for 2 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+4
99.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 4 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q4 7:38
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+1
99.9%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the Nevad 35Similar
Q4 7:02
4TH & 3
OWN 35
+15
99.9%
Alex Boy punt for 45 yds , Chris Finke returns for 15 yds to the NDame 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:27100% → 100%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
99.9%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Chris Finke for 12 yds to the NDame 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to Chris FinkeSimilar
Q4 6:32
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
99.9%
Dexter Williams run for 1 yd to the NDame 48Similar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to Javon McKinleySimilar
Q4 5:33
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Tyler Newsome punt for 38 yds, downed at the Nevad 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 25TD
6 plays · 86 yds · 2:100% → 0%
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
100.0%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Hasaan HendersonSimilar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+17
100.0%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 17 yds to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
100.0%
Kincaide, Jaxson rush for 3 yards to the NEVADA34, PENALTY NEVADA holding 10 yards to the NEVADA21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 20
OWN 21
+68
100.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Andrew Celis for 68 yds to the NDame 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
100.0%
Ty Gangi run for 5 yds to the NDame 6Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+6
99.9%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 6 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 26END OF GAME
7 plays · 31 yds · 3:12100% → 100%
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Malik Zaire run for no gain to the NDame 25Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
100.0%
Dexter Williams run for 8 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q4 2:08
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+7
100.0%
Malik Zaire run for 7 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
100.0%
Dexter Williams run for 9 yds to the NDame 49Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+3
100.0%
Josh Adams run for 3 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
100.0%
Josh Anderson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:35
Tarean Folston run for 2 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)
+2.7
TD · Q2 8:23
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Kevin Stepherson for 4 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)
+2.2
TD · Q2 10:35
DeShone Kizer pass complete to C.J. Sanders for 7 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon PAT MISSED)
+1.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com