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ND

Notre Dame 47 at Texas 50

TEX
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 4, 2016 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:23 · D'Onta Foreman run for 3 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remainingPregame prior
+21.5+10.80−10.8−21.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2Play 64Home team on offense+1.4Garbage-time factor−0.4Score differential−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Time remaining+0.2Pregame prior−1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 5:06: DeShone Kizer pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 5 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +16.6 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q4 10:57: DeShone Kizer pass complete to Josh Adams for 17 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +28.8 pts (now 71%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 3:29: D'Onta Foreman run for 19 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue PAT BLOCKED) Shaun Crawford return for defensive PAT — TEX win probability +37.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: DeShone Kizer pass complete to C.J. Sanders for 25 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +34.5 pts (now 60%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · OT2 0:00: Tyrone Swoopes run for 6 yds for a TD — TEX win probability +43.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 7 of 8ND made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 9:45TEX 4th & 1 at ND 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    44.3%−0.3
    74% to make
    Punt
    43.3%−1.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:56ND 4th & 5 at ND 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:42TEX 4th & 8 at TEX 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:46ND 4th & 17 at ND 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%−0.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:33TEX 4th & 5 at TEX 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:26ND 4th & 10 at TEX 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    50.8%−0.8
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:23TEX 4th & 2 at ND 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    49.7%−1.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    50.0%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:28ND 4th & 7 at ND 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:15ND 4th & 16 at ND 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−2.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:14TEX 4th & 6 at ND 8, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.1%
    90% to make
    Punt
    72.5%−8.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:56TEX 4th & 2 at TEX 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:25ND 4th & 12 at TEX 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−3.0
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    25.6%−11.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:45TEX 4th & 2 at TEX 28, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%−1.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:35TEX 4th & 24 at TEX 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−6.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:23ND 4th & 1 at ND 44, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.7 ptsPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%−4.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:50ND 4th & 10 at ND 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−5.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:28ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:30TEX Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:13TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:44ND Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:12TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 14:29TEX Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:39ND Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 5:06ND Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:57ND Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 3:29TEX Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    70.1%−1.0
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 2:2052% → 53%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
47.6%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Equanimeous St. BrownSimilar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+54
47.7%
Tarean Folston run for 54 yds to the Texas 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
47.6%
Josh Adams run for 5 yds to the Texas 19Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+1
47.6%
DeShone Kizer run for 1 yd to the Texas 18Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+5
47.7%
Tarean Folston run for 5 yds to the Texas 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
46.9%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 13 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:5047% → 50%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
47.1%
D'Onta Foreman run for 13 yds to the Texas 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
47.2%
D'Onta Foreman run for 6 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+13
47.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to John Burt for 13 yds to the NDame 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
47.5%
D'Onta Foreman run for 8 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 2
OPP 35
0
47.5%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Jacorey WarrickSimilar
Q1 11:14
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+5
47.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to John Burt for 5 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
47.5%
Chris Warren III run for 2 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+2
47.5%
Chris Warren III run for 2 yds to the NDame 26Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+5
47.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jake Oliver for 5 yds to the NDame 21Similar
Q1 9:45
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+2
47.1%
D'Onta Foreman run for 2 yds to the NDame 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
49.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 19 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2051% → 51%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
48.6%
Tarean Folston run for 2 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+3
48.5%
Tarean Folston run for 3 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 5
OWN 34
0
48.9%
Malik Zaire pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:56
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
49.2%
Tyler Newsome punt for 53 yds , Jacorey Warrick returns for no gain to the Texas 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0449% → 49%
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
48.9%
D'Onta Foreman run for 6 yds to the Texas 19Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 4
OWN 19
-5
48.9%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Kent Perkins) to the Texas 14Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+1
48.9%
D'Onta Foreman run for 1 yd to the Texas 15Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 8
OWN 15
0
48.6%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to John BurtSimilar
Q1 6:42
4TH & 8
OWN 15
0
48.5%
Michael Dickson punt for 57 yds, fair catch by C.J. Sanders at the NDame 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:4251% → 50%
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
49.0%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 7 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+7
48.6%
Josh Adams run for 7 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
48.5%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for no gain to the NDame 42Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-3
48.8%
Tarean Folston run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 39Similar
Q1 4:18
3RD & 13
OWN 39
-4
49.5%
DeShone Kizer sacked by Malik Jefferson for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 35Similar
Q1 3:46
4TH & 17
OWN 35
0
50.2%
Tyler Newsome punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0450% → 50%
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
49.8%
Chris Warren III run for 4 yds to the Texas 32Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+1
50.1%
Chris Warren III run for 1 yd to the Texas 33Similar
Q1 2:43
3RD & 5
OWN 33
0
49.7%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:33
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
49.5%
Michael Dickson punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7PUNT
14 plays · 41 yds · 4:5051% → 49%
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
49.4%
Josh Adams run for 1 yd to the NDame 14Similar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+8
49.5%
Malik Zaire run for 8 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q1 1:22
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+2
49.7%
Josh Adams run for 2 yds to the NDame 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
49.5%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Durham Smythe for 8 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+4
48.7%
Tarean Folston run for 4 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
49.1%
Tarean Folston run for 8 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 2
OWN 44
-5
48.2%
Tarean Folston run for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 39Similar
Q2 13:46
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+15
49.4%
Malik Zaire pass complete to Josh Adams for 15 yds to the Texas 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
48.0%
Josh Adams run for 5 yds to the Texas 41Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 5
OPP 41
0
47.9%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to C.J. SandersSimilar
Q2 12:34
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
48.4%
Malik Zaire pass incomplete to Durham Smythe, broken up by Anthony WheelerSimilar
Q2 12:34
4TH & 5
OPP 41
-5
49.6%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Texas 46Similar
Q2 12:26
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
50.7%
Tyler Newsome punt for 34 yds, downed at the Texas 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8TD
18 plays · 88 yds · 5:0452% → 64%
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
52.0%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 9 yds to the Texas 21Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+4
52.4%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 4 yds to the Texas 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
52.3%
D'Onta Foreman run for 7 yds to the Texas 32Similar
Q2 11:14
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
53.5%
D'Onta Foreman run for 6 yds to the Texas 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
53.4%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 14 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
54.6%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 4 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 6
OPP 44
0
54.9%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to John BurtSimilar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+5
53.5%
Swoopes, Tyrone rush for 5 yards to the NOTREDAME39, PENALTY NOTREDAME offside (Trumbetti, Andrew) 5 yards to the NOTREDAME39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 1
OPP 39
-1
53.8%
Tyrone Swoopes run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 40Similar
Q2 9:23
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+3
52.8%
D'Onta Foreman run for 3 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
54.4%
D'Onta Foreman run for 3 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
55.0%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to John BurtSimilar
Q2 8:39
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+21
54.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jake Oliver for 21 yds to the NDame 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
55.2%
D'Onta Foreman run for 3 yds to the NDame 10Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 7
OPP 10
-1
55.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Armanti Foreman for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 11Similar
Q2 7:24
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+10
54.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jake Oliver for 10 yds to the NDame 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
63.7%
Shane Buechele run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2139% → 55%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
61.4%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 19 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
60.0%
Tarean Folston run for 5 yds to the NDame 49Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+2
59.7%
Tarean Folston run for 2 yds to the Texas 49Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 3
OPP 49
-10
60.1%
Kizer, DeShone rush for 2 yards to the TEXAS47, PENALTY NOTREDAME holding (McGlinchey, Mike) 10 yards to the NOTREDAME41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:09
3RD & 13
OWN 41
+15
62.9%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 15 yds to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
60.0%
Tarean Folston run for 1 yd to the Texas 43Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+13
60.4%
DeShone Kizer run for 13 yds to the Texas 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
45.5%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 30 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:1953% → 67%
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
52.8%
Chris Warren III run for 3 yds to the Texas 23Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+5
52.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jerrod Heard for 5 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q2 2:56
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+3
52.2%
Chris Warren III run for 3 yds to the Texas 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+68
53.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jerrod Heard for 68 yds to the NDame 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
56.7%
Warren III, Chris rush for no gain to the NOTREDAME1, PENALTY NOTREDAME substitution infraction 0 yards to the NOTREDAME1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
56.7%
Chris Warren III run for no gain to the NDame 1Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
57.3%
Tyrone Swoopes run for no gain to the NDame 1Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.6%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:3535% → 33%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
64.7%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Josh Adams for 14 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
63.3%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Torii Hunter Jr.Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+3
63.8%
Josh Adams run for 3 yds to the NDame 42Similar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
66.0%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Equanimeous St. BrownSimilar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 7
OWN 42
+20
67.3%
Tyler Newsome punt for 40 yds , Jacorey Warrick returns for 20 yds to the TEXAS 38 TEXAS Penalty, Illegal Block (Tim Yoder) to the Texas 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
66.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2366% → 78%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
65.6%
D'Onta Foreman run for 3 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+72
77.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to John Burt for 72 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:5523% → 21%
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
76.8%
Malik Zaire run for 3 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+2
76.6%
Tarean Folston run for 2 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 5
OWN 31
-11
77.2%
Malik Zaire sacked by Kevin Vaccaro for a loss of 11 yards to the NDame 20Similar
Q3 12:15
4TH & 16
OWN 20
+10
79.3%
Tyler Newsome punt for 42 yds , Jacorey Warrick returns for 10 yds to the Texas 48 TEXAS Penalty, Illegal Block (Dorian Leonard) to the Texas 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15FG
11 plays · 54 yds · 2:5380% → 88%
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
80.4%
Buechele, Shane pass complete to Burt, John for 1 yard to the TEXAS39, PENALTY NOTREDAME offside (Rochell, Isaac) 5 yards to the TEXAS43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 5
OWN 43
-5
80.8%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Texas 38Similar
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
80.8%
D'Onta Foreman run for 5 yds to the Texas 43Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+14
81.3%
Buechele, Shane pass incomplete to Foreman, Armanti, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference (Coleman, Nick) 14 yards to the NOTREDAME43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXAS.Similar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
81.4%
D'Onta Foreman run for 4 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+16
81.6%
D'Onta Foreman run for 1 yd to the NDame 38 for a 1ST down NOTRE DAME Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Nyles Morgan) to the NDame 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
82.0%
Chris Warren III run for 11 yds to the NDame 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
82.5%
Chris Warren III run for 4 yds to the NDame 8Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 6
OPP 8
0
82.9%
Chris Warren III run for no gain to the NDame 8Similar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 6
OPP 8
0
82.7%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Jake OliverSimilar
Q3 9:14
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+25
87.6%
Trent Domingue 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 1:1816% → 30%
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
84.4%
DeShone Kizer run for 5 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+10
84.6%
Josh Adams run for 10 yds to the Texas 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+17
84.4%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 17 yds to the Texas 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
70.4%
DeShone Kizer run for 29 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 17INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5576% → 76%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
75.9%
Tyrone Swoopes run for no gain to the Texas 10Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+3
76.1%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 3 yds to the Texas 13Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 7
OWN 13
+22
75.5%
Shane Buechele pass intercepted Shaun Crawford return for 22 yds to the Texas 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18TD
3 plays · 6 yds · 1:0629% → 45%
Q3 6:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
71.1%
Tarean Folston run for 1 yd to the Texas 5Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
71.5%
DeShone Kizer run for no gain to the Texas 5Similar
Q3 5:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
55.0%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 5 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0061% → 60%
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
61.3%
Chris Warren III run for 7 yds to the Texas 32Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
63.1%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to John BurtSimilar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
60.9%
Chris Warren III run for 1 yd to the Texas 33Similar
Q3 3:56
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
60.0%
Michael Dickson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by C.J. Sanders at the NDame 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20MISSED FG
11 plays · 54 yds · 3:2540% → 36%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
60.1%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Miles BoykinSimilar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+17
60.8%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Tarean Folston for 17 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
58.4%
Josh Adams run for 3 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+12
57.6%
DeShone Kizer run for 12 yds to the Texas 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+24
57.1%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to C.J. Sanders for 24 yds to the Texas 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
55.1%
Tarean Folston run for 2 yds to the Texas 15Similar
Q3 1:01
2ND & 8
OPP 15
-4
55.2%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Torii Hunter Jr. for 6 yds to the Texas 9 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offensive Holding (C.J. Sanders) to the Texas 19Similar
Q3 0:36
2ND & 12
OPP 19
0
55.8%
Torii Hunter Jr. pass incomplete to DeShone KizerSimilar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 12
OPP 19
0
60.4%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Torii Hunter Jr.Similar
Q3 0:25
4TH & 12
OPP 19
+36
64.3%
Justin Yoon 36 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Naashon HughesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3064% → 67%
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
64.3%
Chris Warren III run for 9 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 29
-5
66.4%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Armanti Foreman) to the Texas 24Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
64.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to John Burt for 5 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q4 14:35
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-1
67.9%
Chris Warren III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 28Similar
Q4 13:45
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+40
67.0%
Michael Dickson punt for 58 yds , C.J. Sanders returns for 40 yds to the Texas 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22TD
9 plays · 46 yds · 2:4340% → 71%
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
60.5%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Corey HolmesSimilar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+10
60.9%
DeShone Kizer run for 10 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
60.7%
Tarean Folston run for 3 yds to the Texas 33Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+4
59.1%
Josh Adams run for 4 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+10
59.3%
Kizer, DeShone rush for no gain to the TEXAS29, PENALTY TEXAS holding (Davis, Antwuan) 10 yards to the TEXAS19, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
57.2%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Equanimeous St. BrownSimilar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+2
57.9%
DeShone Kizer run for 2 yds to the Texas 17Similar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+17
29.1%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to Josh Adams for 17 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 2:1538% → 33%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
37.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to John Burt for 11 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
39.2%
Foreman, D'Onta rush for 4 yards to the TEXAS40, PENALTY TEXAS illegal formation 5 yards to the TEXAS31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 15
OWN 31
-16
38.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 16 yards to the Texas 15Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 31
OWN 15
-2
36.4%
D'Onta Foreman run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 13Similar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 33
OWN 13
+9
34.6%
D'Onta Foreman run for 9 yds to the Texas 22Similar
Q4 8:35
4TH & 24
OWN 22
+11
32.9%
Michael Dickson punt for 64 yds , C.J. Sanders returns for 11 yds to the NDame 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:0570% → 76%
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
29.7%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Kevin StephersonSimilar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
30.2%
DeShone Kizer run for 4 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+6
29.3%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to C.J. Sanders for 6 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
25.3%
Tarean Folston run for no gain to the NDame 35Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
25.9%
Josh Adams run for 5 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+4
22.8%
DeShone Kizer run for 4 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q4 5:23
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
24.3%
Tyler Newsome punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 25TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 1:4735% → 68%
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
34.9%
Shane Buechele run for 11 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
35.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to John Burt for 5 yds to the Texas 48Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+15
36.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jacorey Warrick for 15 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
37.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 7 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+6
40.3%
D'Onta Foreman run for 6 yds to the NDame 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
40.3%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Armanti Foreman, broken up by Cole LukeSimilar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+5
43.1%
D'Onta Foreman run for 5 yds to the NDame 19Similar
Q4 3:29
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+19
80.5%
D'Onta Foreman run for 19 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue PAT BLOCKED) Shaun Crawford return for defensive PATSimilar
Q4 3:29
3RD & 0
OPP 3
0
67.8%
Shaun Crawford return for defensive PATSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:2849% → 45%
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
50.9%
Tarean Folston run for 2 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 8
OWN 31
-4
50.8%
DeShone Kizer sacked by P.J. Locke III for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 27Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 12
OWN 27
+2
53.6%
Tarean Folston run for 2 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q4 1:50
4TH & 10
OWN 29
0
54.6%
Tyler Newsome punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jacorey Warrick at the Texas 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 1:3656% → 53%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
56.4%
D'Onta Foreman run for 15 yds to the Texas 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
61.4%
D'Onta Foreman run for 4 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+14
62.6%
Shane Buechele run for 14 yds to the NDame 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-15
65.9%
Foreman, D'Onta rush for no gain to the NOTREDAME34, PENALTY TEXAS personal foul (Vahe, Patrick) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 25
OPP 49
-8
59.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the Texas 43Similar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 33
OWN 43
0
56.9%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:16
3RD & 33
OWN 43
0
54.6%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Armanti ForemanSimilar
Q4 0:07
4TH & 33
OWN 43
0
52.5%
Michael Dickson punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
50.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 29TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 75%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+20
64.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jacorey Warrick for 20 yds to the NDame 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
64.7%
D'Onta Foreman run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 6Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
64.7%
Shane Buechele run for 3 yds to the NDame 3Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
75.0%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 3 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 30TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
40.5%
DeShone Kizer pass complete to C.J. Sanders for 25 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 31FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0060% → 72%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
40.5%
DeShone Kizer run for 5 yds to the Texas 20Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
-2
40.5%
Josh Adams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 22Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 22
0
43.1%
DeShone Kizer pass incomplete to Kevin StephersonSimilar
OT2 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+39
28.5%
Justin Yoon 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 32TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0041% → 85%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
41.3%
D'Onta Foreman run for 5 yds to the NDame 20Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+4
41.3%
Shane Buechele run for 4 yds to the NDame 16Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+10
37.7%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 10 yds to the NDame 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
41.3%
Tyrone Swoopes run for no gain to the NDame 6Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
84.6%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 6 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT2 0:00
Tyrone Swoopes run for 6 yds for a TD
+43.3
TD · Q4 3:29
D'Onta Foreman run for 19 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue PAT BLOCKED) Shaun Crawford return for defensive PAT
+37.4
TD · OT 0:00
DeShone Kizer pass complete to C.J. Sanders for 25 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)
-34.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com