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BYU

BYU 20 at Cincinnati 3

CIN
2016 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2016 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGEnd of GameFG+0.2CIN 26.0%Josh Pasley 23 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 3 · Q1 12:35
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:35 · Josh Pasley 23 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 10Pregame prior−24.7Home team on offense+0.2Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 11:46: Tion Green run for 3 yds to the Cincy 46 — CIN win probability +3.6 pts (now 35%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:48: Taysom Hill run for 8 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK) — BYU win probability +7.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:26: Squally Canada run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK) — BYU win probability +10.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. MISSED FG · Q3 1:39: Josh Pasley 39 yd FG MISSED — BYU win probability +3.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:20: Jamaal Williams run for 8 yds to the BYU 45 — BYU win probability +6.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 5 of 8BYU made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 12:35CIN 4th & 2 at BYU 6, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.0%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    27.5%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:35BYU 4th & 7 at CIN 27, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.9%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    71.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    71.5%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:12BYU 4th & 9 at CIN 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:50CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 20, up 3
    Close callPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:38BYU 4th & 2 at CIN 11, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.1%−0.5
    87% to make
    Punt
    62.4%−3.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:46CIN 4th & 7 at CIN 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:41BYU 4th & 6 at BYU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:38CIN 4th & 17 at CIN 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−1.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:39CIN 4th & 21 at BYU 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−1.8
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    9.6%−3.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00BYU 4th & 4 at BYU 39, up 14
    Close callPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:08CIN 4th & 2 at BYU 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    12.5%−1.6
    40% to make
    Punt
    12.1%−2.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:19BYU 4th & 1 at CIN 5, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.8%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    94.1%−1.7
    92% to make
    Punt
    90.0%−5.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:39BYU 4th & 3 at CIN 3, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.0%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    95.1%−2.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:31CIN 4th & 1 at BYU 19, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%−0.4
    77% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 0:48BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:26BYU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 2:2525% → 26%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
24.6%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to DJ Dowdy, broken up by Francis BernardSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+31
24.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Devin Gray for 31 yds to the BYU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
24.6%
TEAM rush for loss of 5 yards to the BYU39, fumble by TEAM recovered by CIN KIEL, Gunner at BYU39, PENALTY BYU offside (WARNER, Fred) 5 yards to the BYU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 29
+15
24.6%
Mike Boone run for 15 yds to the BYU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
24.6%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Devin Gray, broken up by Troy WarnerSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+4
24.6%
Tion Green run for 4 yds to the BYU 10Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+4
24.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Tion Green for 4 yds to the BYU 6Similar
Q1 12:35
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+23
26.0%
Josh Pasley 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2DOWNS
9 plays · 48 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
25.9%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Nick Kurtz for 11 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
25.8%
CINCINNATI Penalty, personal foul (Alex Thomas) to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
25.7%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Nick Kurtz for 5 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+14
25.7%
Jamaal Williams run for 14 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
25.7%
Jamaal Williams run for 3 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
25.6%
Taysom Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 7
OPP 27
0
25.7%
HILL, Taysom pass complete to LAULU-PUTUTAU,M for 21 yards to the CIN6 (MOUHON, Kevin), PENALTY BYU illegal touching (LAULU-PUTUTAU,M) 0 yards to the CIN27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:35
4TH & 7
OPP 27
0
25.9%
Taysom Hill pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3INT
9 plays · 44 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
27.6%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Nate Cole, broken up by Fred WarnerSimilar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+11
27.5%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Devin Gray for 11 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
27.7%
Mike Boone run for 7 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 3
OWN 45
0
28.0%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Nate ColeSimilar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+12
27.8%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Devin Gray for 12 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
28.0%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Mike Boone for 11 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
28.1%
Gunner Kiel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
28.1%
Tion Green run for 3 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+37
28.0%
Gunner Kiel pass intercepted Austin McChesney return for 37 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
28.4%
Jamaal Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 49Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 12
OWN 49
0
28.7%
Taysom Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 12
OWN 49
+3
28.9%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 3 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q1 7:12
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
29.1%
Jonny Linehan punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Devin Gray at the Cincy 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
29.6%
Tion Green run for 4 yds to the Cincy 16Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+4
29.6%
Tion Green run for 4 yds to the Cincy 20Similar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 2
OWN 20
0
29.3%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q1 5:50
4TH & 2
OWN 20
0
29.1%
Sam Geraci punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 4:0670% → 70%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
30.3%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Nick Kurtz for 10 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
29.7%
Jamaal Williams run for 7 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 3
OPP 46
0
29.5%
Taysom Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+9
29.8%
Taysom Hill run for 9 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
29.6%
Jamaal Williams run for 3 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+15
29.2%
HILL, Taysom pass incomplete to PEARSON, Colby, PENALTY CIN pass interference (PIERCE, Davin) 15 yards to the CIN19, 1ST DOWN BYU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
29.2%
Jamaal Williams run for no gain to the Cincy 19Similar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
30.6%
Taysom Hill run for 5 yds to the Cincy 14Similar
Q1 2:01
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+3
31.0%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 3 yds to the Cincy 11Similar
Q1 0:38
4TH & 2
OPP 11
+28
30.2%
Rhett Almond 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:3232% → 33%
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
32.4%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to DJ DowdySimilar
Q1 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
32.3%
Tion Green run for 8 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 45
0
33.1%
Tion Green run for no gain to the Cincy 45Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
32.5%
Sam Geraci punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8INT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
31.7%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Algernon Brown for 3 yds to the BYU 14Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 7
OWN 14
0
31.7%
Taysom Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+11
32.3%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 11 yds to the BYU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-13
31.6%
WILLIAMS, Jamaa rush for 2 yards to the BYU27 (YOUNG, Perry), PENALTY BYU illegal block (DAWE, Parker) 13 yards to the BYU12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 23
OWN 12
+5
31.7%
Taysom Hill run for 5 yds to the BYU 17Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+6
31.8%
Taysom Hill pass intercepted Zach Edwards return for 6 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
35.4%
Tion Green run for 3 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
35.6%
Kahlil Lewis run for no gain to the Cincy 46Similar
Q2 11:46
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
34.7%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Devin Gray, broken up by Troy WarnerSimilar
Q2 11:46
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
33.7%
Sam Geraci punt for 38 yds, downed at the BYU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0067% → 65%
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
33.3%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Aleva Hifo for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 15Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+1
33.6%
Jamaal Williams run for 1 yd to the BYU 16Similar
Q2 10:41
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+4
34.3%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Jonah Trinnaman for 4 yds to the BYU 20Similar
Q2 10:41
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
34.7%
Jonny Linehan punt for 42 yds , Brayden Beard returns for no gain to the Cincy 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0037% → 35%
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
37.0%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 14 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-9
38.2%
Gunner Kiel sacked by Corbin Kaufusi for a loss of 9 yards to the Cincy 43Similar
Q2 8:38
2ND & 19
OWN 43
+2
36.5%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Tion Green for 2 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q2 8:38
3RD & 17
OWN 45
0
35.6%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Kahlil Lewis, broken up by Handsome TanieluSimilar
Q2 8:38
4TH & 17
OWN 45
0
34.9%
Sam Geraci punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12TD
13 plays · 92 yds · 6:0866% → 77%
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
34.3%
Jamaal Williams run for 8 yds to the BYU 16Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 2
OWN 16
0
34.0%
Jamaal Williams run for no gain to the BYU 16Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+8
34.8%
Jamaal Williams run for 8 yds to the BYU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
33.9%
Jamaal Williams run for 6 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+1
33.0%
Squally Canada run for 1 yd to the BYU 31Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+4
33.8%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Colby Pearson for 4 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
33.3%
Squally Canada run for 4 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
32.2%
Taysom Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+7
33.3%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Nick Kurtz for 7 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+43
31.9%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Jonah Trinnaman for 43 yds to the Cincy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
30.7%
Jamaal Williams run for 3 yds to the Cincy 8Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 7
OPP 8
0
30.7%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Jamaal WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+8
22.8%
Taysom Hill run for 8 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
26.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 6:2675% → 88%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
25.2%
Taysom Hill run for 12 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
23.9%
Taysom Hill run for 2 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+3
23.9%
Jamaal Williams run for 3 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+12
24.2%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Colby Pearson for 12 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
23.5%
Jamaal Williams run for 3 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+7
23.5%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 7 yds to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
23.3%
Jamaal Williams run for 1 yd to the Cincy 30Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
23.4%
Taysom Hill run for no gain to the Cincy 30Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+16
23.9%
Squally Canada run for 16 yds to the Cincy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
23.2%
Jamaal Williams run for 13 yds to the Cincy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
23.2%
Squally Canada run for no gain to the Cincy 1Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
12.4%
Squally Canada run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15MISSED FG
18 plays · 62 yds · 6:4315% → 13%
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
15.0%
Tion Green run for 11 yds to the Cincy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
15.2%
Tion Green run for 1 yd to the Cincy 28Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 9
OWN 28
-5
15.1%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (Ryan Stout) to the Cincy 23Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 14
OWN 23
+5
14.8%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Tion Green for 5 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+9
14.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Tshumbi Johnson for 9 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
15.7%
Kahlil Lewis run for 5 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+2
16.5%
Tion Green run for 2 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+5
16.3%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Tion Green for 5 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
16.7%
Chad Banschbach run for 2 yds to the BYU 49Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+2
16.8%
Chad Banschbach run for 2 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+15
16.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Nate Cole for 15 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
17.6%
LEWIS, Kahlil rush for 5 yards to the BYU27 (NACUA, Kai;PILI, Trajan), PENALTY BYU offside (BERNARD, Franci) 5 yards to the BYU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 5
OPP 27
+16
17.8%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 16 yds to the BYU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
17.8%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-4
17.8%
Tion Green run for a loss of 4 yards to the BYU 15Similar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 14
OPP 15
-7
16.3%
Gunner Kiel sacked by Logan Taele and Sae Tautu for a loss of 7 yards to the BYU 22Similar
Q3 1:39
4TH & 21
OPP 22
+39
12.8%
Josh Pasley 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 1:3989% → 90%
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
10.9%
HILL, Taysom pass incomplete to KURTZ, Nick (THOMAS, Alex), PENALTY BYU ineligible downfield on pass (NORMAN, Keyan) 5 yards to the BYU17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:39
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+1
11.0%
Squally Canada run for 1 yd to the BYU 18Similar
Q3 1:39
2ND & 14
OWN 18
0
11.1%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Mitchell JuergensSimilar
Q3 1:39
3RD & 14
OWN 18
+15
11.5%
Taysom Hill run for 15 yds to the BYU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
10.8%
Taysom Hill run for 4 yds to the BYU 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+2
9.8%
Squally Canada run for 2 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
9.6%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Moroni Laulu-Pututau, broken up by Malik ClementsSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
10.4%
Jonny Linehan punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Brayden Beard at the Cincy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 48 yds · 0:0012% → 13%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
11.6%
Tion Green run for 13 yds to the Cincy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+27
12.0%
Tion Green run for 27 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
13.9%
Tion Green run for 6 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 4
OPP 39
-5
14.1%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (Devin Gray) to the BYU 44Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+7
13.6%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chad Banschbach for 7 yds to the BYU 37Similar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 2
OPP 37
0
14.1%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Chad Banschbach for no gain to the BYU 37Similar
Q4 14:08
4TH & 2
OPP 37
0
13.4%
Tion Green run for no gain to the BYU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18FG
18 plays · 60 yds · 9:4193% → 99%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
6.8%
Jamaal Williams run for 8 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+3
6.5%
Jamaal Williams run for 3 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
6.5%
Jamaal Williams run for 4 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+8
6.5%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Algernon Brown for 8 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
6.5%
Squally Canada run for 11 yds to the Cincy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
6.3%
Squally Canada run for 5 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+2
6.3%
Jamaal Williams run for 2 yds to the Cincy 22Similar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+8
6.5%
Taysom Hill run for 8 yds to the Cincy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
6.3%
Jamaal Williams run for 2 yds to the Cincy 12Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+7
6.3%
Taysom Hill run for 7 yds to the Cincy 5Similar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 1
OPP 5
0
6.5%
Taysom Hill run for no gain to the Cincy 5Similar
Q4 4:19
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+2
3.3%
Jamaal Williams run for 2 yds to the Cincy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
2.9%
Jamaal Williams run for 2 yds to the Cincy 1Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
3.0%
Jamaal Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 3Similar
Q4 4:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
3.1%
Jamaal Williams run for no gain to the Cincy 3Similar
Q4 1:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+19
0.9%
Rhett Almond 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 57 yds · 0:002% → 3%
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
2.2%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Tion Green for 6 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+12
2.1%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Devin Gray for 12 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+20
2.1%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Devin Gray for 20 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
2.3%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Devin Gray for 10 yds to the BYU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
2.8%
Gunner Kiel pass complete to Devin Gray for 9 yds to the BYU 19Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 1
OPP 19
0
2.8%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q4 1:31
3RD & 1
OPP 19
0
2.6%
Gunner Kiel pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q4 1:31
4TH & 1
OPP 19
0
2.6%
Tion Green run for no gain to the BYU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
1.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:26
Squally Canada run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK)
-10.9
TD · Q2 0:48
Taysom Hill run for 8 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK)
-7.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 11:20
Jamaal Williams run for 8 yds to the BYU 45
-6.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com