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MSST

Mississippi State 21 at BYU 28

BYU
2016 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2016 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+4.6BYU 63.8%Hunter Marshall 1 Yd pass from TaysomHill (Rhett Almond Kick)AWAY 7 - HOME 7 · Q1 0:48
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:48 · Hunter Marshall 1 Yd pass from Taysom Hill (Rhett Almond Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorTime remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2Play 40Pregame prior+10.9Home team on offense+1.0Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Time remaining+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:54: Nick Fitzgerald 1 Yd Run (Westin Graves Kick) — MSST win probability +10.0 pts (now 54%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:15: Moroni Laulu-Pututau 15 Yd pass from Taysom Hill (Andrew Mikkelsen Kick) — BYU win probability +23.7 pts (now 61%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · OT 0:00: Nick Fitzgerald 2 Yd Run (Westin Graves Kick) — MSST win probability +16.7 pts (now 76%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: Taysom Hill 1 Yd Run (Andrew Mikkelsen Kick) — BYU win probability +34.3 pts (now 62%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · OT2 0:00: Tanner Balderree 25 Yd pass from Taysom Hill (Rhett Almond Kick) — BYU win probability +24.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 3 of 8MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 11:38MSST 4th & 5 at BYU 25, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.2%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    37.7%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:37BYU 4th & 4 at BYU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:48BYU 4th & 1 at MSST 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    54.2%−1.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    49.7%−6.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:38BYU 4th & 3 at MSST 24, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.8%−0.4
    68% to make
    Punt
    59.0%−3.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:17MSST 4th & 11 at BYU 37, tied
    Close callWent for it · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.2%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    41.4%
    40% to make
    Punt
    41.1%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:20BYU 4th & 3 at BYU 32, down 7
    Close callPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.0%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:21MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 23, up 7
    Close callPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:01MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:51BYU 4th & 3 at MSST 48, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.1%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:26MSST 4th & 7 at BYU 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    62.9%−1.0
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:55BYU 4th & 2 at BYU 31, down 7
    Close callPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.8%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:16MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%−0.6
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:49BYU 4th & 3 at BYU 35, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:05MSST 4th & 2 at BYU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    45.3%−5.9
    54% to make
    Punt
    37.8%−13.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:27BYU 4th & 6 at BYU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−3.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:12MSST 4th & 5 at MSST 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−11.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MSST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:13MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:48BYU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:54MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:15BYU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1MISSED FG
12 plays · 50 yds · 3:1636% → 36%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
64.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 12 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
64.2%
Fitzgerald, Nick rush for 6 yards to the MISSSTATE43, PENALTY BYU offside (Langi, Harvey) 5 yards to the MISSSTATE42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:26
1ST & 5
OWN 42
+4
64.2%
Ashton Shumpert run for 4 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+2
64.1%
Ashton Shumpert run for 2 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
64.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 11 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
64.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 43Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 12
OPP 43
+13
64.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 13 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
63.8%
Ashton Shumpert run for 4 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+1
63.7%
Ashton Shumpert run for 1 yd to the BYU 25Similar
Q1 11:44
3RD & 5
OPP 25
0
63.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Malik DearSimilar
Q1 11:38
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+42
63.9%
Westin Graves 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5664% → 64%
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.1%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Tanner Balderree, broken up by Richie BrownSimilar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
64.0%
Jamaal Williams run for 6 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
63.9%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Mitchell Juergens, broken up by Nelson AdamsSimilar
Q1 10:37
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+29
63.8%
Jonny Linehan punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MISSSTATE 25 BYU Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Michael Davis) to the MisSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 1:1736% → 39%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
63.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Gabe MylesSimilar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
63.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 6 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
63.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q1 10:00
4TH & 4
OWN 46
+5
63.8%
BYU Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
63.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
63.4%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q1 9:13
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+44
61.4%
Keith Mixon 44 Yd pass from Nick Fitzgerald (Westin Graves Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 8:1762% → 64%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
61.8%
Taysom Hill run for 5 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
61.6%
Jamaal Williams run for no gain to the BYU 30Similar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
61.0%
Taysom Hill run for 7 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
61.0%
Taysom Hill run for 12 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
61.3%
Jamaal Williams run for 8 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 2
OPP 43
-1
61.3%
Taysom Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 44Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+18
61.0%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Nick Kurtz for 18 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
61.2%
Squally Canada run for no gain to the MisSt 26Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+9
61.0%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Colby Pearson for 9 yds to the MisSt 17Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+3
60.3%
Taysom Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
60.8%
Jamaal Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 9Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+7
60.2%
Hill, Taysom pass incomplete to Kurtz, Nick, PENALTY MISSSTATE pass interference (Durr, Lashard) 7 yards to the MISSSTATE2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BYU.Similar
Q1 2:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
60.1%
Jamaal Williams run for no gain to the MisSt 2Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
59.9%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Moroni Laulu-PututauSimilar
Q1 1:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
59.2%
Taysom Hill run for 1 yd to the MisSt 1Similar
Q1 0:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
63.8%
Hunter Marshall 1 Yd pass from Taysom Hill (Rhett Almond Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5INT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:3438% → 39%
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
62.3%
Ashton Shumpert run for 5 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q1 0:09
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-6
61.8%
Ashton Shumpert run for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 24Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+17
62.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Ashton Shumpert for 17 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
61.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Malik Dear for 7 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 3
OWN 48
0
60.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted Micah Hannemann return for no gain to the BYU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6MISSED FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 4:2163% → 64%
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
63.3%
Jamaal Williams run for 4 yds to the BYU 36Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+4
64.0%
Jamaal Williams run for 4 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+4
63.8%
Jamaal Williams run for 4 yds to the BYU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
64.4%
Hill, Taysom pass incomplete to Pearson, Colby, PENALTY MISSSTATE roughing passer (Jefferson, A.J.) 15 yards to the MISSSTATE41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BYU.Similar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
64.8%
Jamaal Williams run for no gain to the MisSt 41Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
64.8%
Squally Canada run for 4 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q2 10:46
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+6
64.5%
Taysom Hill run for 6 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
65.3%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Nick KurtzSimilar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+7
65.3%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Colby Pearson for 7 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 3
OPP 24
0
64.7%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Aleva HifoSimilar
Q2 9:38
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+42
63.6%
Rhett Almond 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:3739% → 54%
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
61.1%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
60.5%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 25Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
61.1%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+21
60.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 21 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
57.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 13 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
57.5%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 7
OPP 33
0
56.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 7
OPP 33
-4
57.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 4 yards to the BYU 37Similar
Q2 6:17
4TH & 11
OPP 37
+14
59.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 14 yds to the BYU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
56.1%
Aeris Williams run for no gain to the BYU 23Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+2
56.3%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the BYU 21Similar
Q2 5:02
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+17
57.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 17 yds to the BYU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
55.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the BYU 2Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
55.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Ashton Shumpert, broken up by Sae TautuSimilar
Q2 4:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
56.4%
Shumpert, Ashton rush for 1 yard to the BYU1, PENALTY BYU offside (Langi, Harvey) 1 yards to the BYU1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
46.5%
Nick Fitzgerald 1 Yd Run (Westin Graves Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2950% → 48%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.5%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Nick KurtzSimilar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
49.4%
Jamaal Williams run for 8 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q2 3:03
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-1
49.7%
Jamaal Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 32Similar
Q2 2:20
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
47.6%
Jonny Linehan punt for 54 yds, downed at the MisSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:5254% → 54%
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
46.5%
Malik Dear run for 4 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 6
OWN 18
0
46.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jordan ThomasSimilar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+5
47.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 5 yds to the MisSt 23Similar
Q2 1:21
4TH & 1
OWN 23
+15
45.7%
Logan Cooke punt for 38 yds , Mitchell Juergens returns for 15 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10INT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:3650% → 51%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
50.2%
Taysom Hill run for 7 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+10
50.0%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Nick Kurtz for 10 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
51.5%
Taysom Hill run for no gain to the MisSt 29Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+27
51.3%
Taysom Hill pass intercepted Mark McLaurin return for 27 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2659% → 57%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
41.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
41.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Keith MixonSimilar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
41.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Dontavian Lee for no gain to the MisSt 49Similar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
43.4%
Logan Cooke punt for 23 yds, downed at the BYU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
44.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 3:5546% → 45%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
46.3%
Jamaal Williams run for no gain to the BYU 16Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+17
45.7%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Colby Pearson for 17 yds to the BYU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
46.3%
Jamaal Williams run for 2 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+6
45.7%
Jamaal Williams run for 6 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q3 12:22
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+4
46.7%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Nick Kurtz for 4 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
46.6%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Garrett JuergensSimilar
Q3 11:23
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
45.4%
Squally Canada run for 7 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q3 10:59
3RD & 3
OPP 48
0
47.2%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Jonah TrinnamanSimilar
Q3 10:51
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
44.9%
Jonny Linehan punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 49 yds · 3:1758% → 62%
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
42.3%
Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+12
40.8%
Aeris Williams run for 12 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
40.6%
Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+9
38.8%
Aeris Williams run for 9 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
38.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 11 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
37.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 4 yds to the BYU 37Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 6
OPP 37
-1
35.9%
Aeris Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 38 Aeris Williams fumbled, recovered by MisSt Aeris WilliamsSimilar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
36.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Justin JohnsonSimilar
Q3 7:26
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
37.8%
Logan Cooke punt for 37 yds, downed at the BYU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 30 yds · 2:2441% → 38%
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+22
40.8%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Jonah Trinnaman for 7 yds to the BYU 8 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Fletcher Adams) to the BYU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
41.2%
Jamaal Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 20Similar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+4
40.4%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Nick Kurtz for 4 yds to the BYU 24Similar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+7
38.7%
Taysom Hill run for 7 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q3 4:55
4TH & 2
OWN 31
0
38.3%
Jonny Linehan punt for 62 yds, downed at the MisSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3363% → 62%
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
37.2%
Keith Mixon run for 3 yds to the MisSt 10Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+4
37.0%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 14Similar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 3
OWN 14
-1
37.4%
Aeris Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 13Similar
Q3 3:16
4TH & 4
OWN 13
0
37.6%
Logan Cooke punt for 35 yds, downed at the MisSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17TD
15 plays · 48 yds · 4:5243% → 57%
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
43.1%
Jamaal Williams run for no gain to the MisSt 48Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+7
42.3%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Nick Kurtz for 7 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q3 2:22
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+16
42.6%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Nick Kurtz for 16 yds to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
44.6%
Jamaal Williams run for 8 yds to the MisSt 17Similar
Q3 1:32
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+3
44.3%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Colby Pearson for 3 yds to the MisSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
44.2%
Jamaal Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 10Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+9
44.0%
Taysom Hill run for 7 yds to the MisSt 3 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Face Mask (2 yards) (Johnathan Calvin) to the MisSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
44.0%
Jamaal Williams run for no gain to the MisSt 1Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-7
41.1%
Taysom Hill run for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 8Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
38.8%
Hill, Taysom pass incomplete to Trinnaman, Jonah, PENALTY MISSSTATE roughing passer (Coleman, Will) 4 yards to the MISSSTATE4, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BYU.Similar
Q4 14:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
40.9%
Jamaal Williams run for no gain to the MisSt 4Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
40.7%
Jamaal Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 5Similar
Q4 13:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
37.3%
Hill, Taysom pass complete to Williams, Jamaal for 5 yards to the MISSSTATE0, PENALTY BYU holding (Kanuch, Tuni) 10 yards to the MISSSTATE15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
61.0%
Moroni Laulu-Pututau 15 Yd pass from Taysom Hill (Andrew Mikkelsen Kick)Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 21
OWN 35
-15
56.7%
BYU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Moroni Laulu-Pututau) to the BYU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18INT
13 plays · 40 yds · 5:0346% → 50%
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
53.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 29Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 12
OWN 29
0
54.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Malik Dear, broken up by Micah HannemannSimilar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 12
OWN 29
+17
56.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Malik Dear for 17 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
50.2%
Malik Dear run for 8 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+5
48.5%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
48.9%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the BYU 37Similar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 6
OPP 37
-15
48.2%
Mixon, Keith rush for 9 yards to the BYU28, PENALTY MISSSTATE personal foul (Williams, Aeris) 15 yards to the MISSSTATE48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 21
OWN 48
+3
52.3%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the BYU 49Similar
Q4 9:39
3RD & 18
OPP 49
+22
53.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 22 yds to the BYU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
46.2%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 8
OPP 25
-4
46.0%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Sae Tautu for a loss of 4 yards to the BYU 29Similar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 12
OPP 29
+10
49.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted Kai Nacua return for 10 yds to the BYU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5759% → 56%
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
58.6%
Jamaal Williams run for 4 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+3
58.9%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Nick Kurtz for 3 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q4 6:56
3RD & 3
OWN 35
0
58.1%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Mitchell Juergens, broken up by Mark McLaurinSimilar
Q4 6:49
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
55.7%
Jonny Linehan punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20DOWNS
12 plays · 50 yds · 3:3748% → 51%
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
52.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+6
51.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 6 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
50.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
51.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Keith MixonSimilar
Q4 5:38
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+15
53.3%
Fitzgerald, Nick pass incomplete to Green, Farrod, PENALTY BYU pass interference (Bernard, Francis) 15 yards to the MISSSTATE45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.Similar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
47.0%
Keith Mixon run for 4 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+12
45.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Malik Dear for 12 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
45.4%
Malik Dear run for 5 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+4
44.0%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 1
OPP 30
-1
45.9%
Aeris Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 31Similar
Q4 3:05
4TH & 2
OPP 31
0
49.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the BYU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2860% → 57%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
60.0%
Taysom Hill run for 5 yds to the BYU 36Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 5
OWN 36
-5
63.0%
BYU Penalty, False Start (Andrew Eide) to the BYU 31Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
59.5%
Taysom Hill run for 4 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q4 1:34
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
57.5%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Colby PearsonSimilar
Q4 1:27
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
56.7%
Jonny Linehan punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0449% → 47%
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
51.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 6 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
50.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the MisSt 26Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-1
52.5%
Aeris Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 25Similar
Q4 0:12
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
53.0%
Logan Cooke punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Garrett Juergens at the BYU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 23FUMBLE
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:0456% → 60%
Q4 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+19
55.9%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Moroni Laulu-Pututau for 19 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
60.1%
Taysom Hill sacked by Traver Jung for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 40 Taysom Hill fumbled, forced by Traver Jung, recovered by MisSt A.J. Jefferson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 76%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
40.5%
Fred Ross pass complete to Nick Fitzgerald for 9 yds to the BYU 16Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+1
40.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the BYU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
40.5%
Fitzgerald, Nick pass incomplete to Gray, Donald, PENALTY BYU pass interference (Davis, Michael) 13 yards to the BYU2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
40.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald Gray, broken up by Fred WarnerSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
23.9%
Nick Fitzgerald 2 Yd Run (Westin Graves Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 25TD
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0028% → 62%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
28.1%
Jamaal Williams run for 9 yds to the MisSt 16Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+2
28.1%
Jamaal Williams run for 2 yds to the MisSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
28.1%
Taysom Hill run for no gain to the MisSt 8, fumbles, recovered by Tanner Balderree runs for 6 yds to the MisSt 8Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+5
28.1%
Jamaal Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
28.8%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Nick KurtzSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
28.1%
Jamaal Williams run for 2 yds to the MisSt 1Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.3%
Taysom Hill 1 Yd Run (Andrew Mikkelsen Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 26TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
86.4%
Tanner Balderree 25 Yd pass from Taysom Hill (Rhett Almond Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 27Uncategorized
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:0020% → 9%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
80.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+9
82.4%
Aeris Williams run for 9 yds to the BYU 16Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+3
83.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the BYU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
80.4%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Sae Tautu and Logan Taele for a loss of 5 yards to the BYU 18Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 15
OPP 18
0
83.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald Gray, broken up by Micah HannemannSimilar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 15
OPP 18
+6
89.0%
Keith Mixon run for 6 yds to the BYU 12Similar
OT2 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 12
0
91.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Justin Johnson, broken up by Fred WarnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Taysom Hill 1 Yd Run (Andrew Mikkelsen Kick)
+34.3
TD · OT2 0:00
Tanner Balderree 25 Yd pass from Taysom Hill (Rhett Almond Kick)
+24.1
TD · Q4 13:15
Moroni Laulu-Pututau 15 Yd pass from Taysom Hill (Andrew Mikkelsen Kick)
+23.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com