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BYU

BYU 31 at Michigan State 14

MSU
2016 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2016 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:10 · Jonny Linehan punt for 45 yds, downed at the MchSt 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 33Home team on offense+1.8Pregame prior+10.1Score differential+0.4Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:52: Taysom Hill pass complete to Colby Pearson for 4 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK) — BYU win probability +16.5 pts (now 57%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 12:43: Taysom Hill run for 12 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK) — BYU win probability +23.8 pts (now 80%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 9:29: Jamaal Williams run for 3 yds to the MchSt 29 — BYU win probability +11.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:00: Jamaal Williams run for 8 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK) — BYU win probability +9.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:59: Damion Terry run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +8.0 pts (now 16%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8BYU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00BYU 4th & 6 at MSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    35.4%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    35.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:36MSU 4th & 2 at BYU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    64.1%−0.2
    60% to make
    Punt
    63.4%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:10BYU 4th & 6 at BYU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:10MSU 4th & 22 at MSU 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−1.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00BYU 4th & 1 at MSU 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.9%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    31.7%−1.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    28.4%−4.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:12MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 30, up 7
    Close callPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:36BYU 4th & 9 at MSU 42, down 7
    Close callPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    28.4%−0.7
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:14MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 14, up 7
    Close callPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.9%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:34BYU 4th & 1 at MSU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    29.2%−1.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    28.3%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 37, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:52MSU 4th & 15 at MSU 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−4.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00BYU 4th & 1 at MSU 14, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    50.8%−4.3
    84% to make
    Punt
    36.6%−18.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:36MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.4%−1.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:52MSU 4th & 12 at MSU 15, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BYU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 4:10MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 4:52BYU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 12:43BYU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−0.4
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:00BYU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:59MSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:59BYU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BYUDrive 1DOWNS
11 plays · 49 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
62.3%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Nick Kurtz for 5 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+9
62.3%
Jamaal Williams run for 9 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
62.3%
Jamaal Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+15
62.3%
HILL, Taysom pass incomplete to KURTZ, Nick, QB hurry by Frey, Chris, PENALTY MSU pass interference 15 yards to the MSU49, 1ST DOWN BYU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
62.3%
Jamaal Williams run for 5 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+8
62.3%
Jamaal Williams run for 8 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
62.3%
Taysom Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+4
62.3%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Nick Kurtz for 4 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 32
0
62.3%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Jamaal WilliamsSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 32
+4
62.3%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Jonah Trinnaman for 4 yds to the MchSt 28 BYU Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2TD
16 plays · 72 yds · 7:0362% → 67%
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
62.2%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 7 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 3
OWN 35
-1
62.5%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to R.J. Shelton for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 34Similar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+8
62.1%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Donnie Corley for 8 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
62.5%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Monty MadarisSimilar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
62.4%
Gerald Holmes run for 4 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+18
62.4%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Josiah Price for 18 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
62.7%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Donnie CorleySimilar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-1
62.6%
Gerald Holmes run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 37Similar
Q1 8:36
3RD & 11
OPP 37
+9
62.3%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Gerald Holmes for 9 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q1 8:36
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+5
62.2%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Donnie Corley for 5 yds to the BYU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
62.7%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the BYU 20Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+6
62.7%
Gerald Holmes run for 6 yds to the BYU 14Similar
Q1 8:36
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+3
62.5%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the BYU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
62.7%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the BYU 8Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
66.6%
Gerald Holmes run for 8 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
65.3%
Jamaal Williams run for 6 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
64.9%
Colby Pearson run for 3 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
65.0%
BYU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 29Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
65.5%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Moroni Laulu-PututauSimilar
Q1 4:10
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
66.0%
Jonny Linehan punt for 45 yds, downed at the MchSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-9
65.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 9 yards to the MchSt 17 TEAM fumbled, recovered by MchSt Tyler O'ConnorSimilar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 19
OWN 17
-9
65.6%
Scott, LJ rush for 8 yards to the MSU25 (TALIAULI, Merrill), PENALTY MSU holding 9 yards to the MSU8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 28
OWN 8
0
65.3%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete MICHIGAN ST Penalty, illegal shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 28
OWN 8
+6
64.9%
Tyler O'Connor run for 6 yds to the MchSt 14Similar
Q1 2:10
4TH & 22
OWN 14
0
64.8%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 42 yds, downed at the BYU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5DOWNS
13 plays · 53 yds · 0:1635% → 35%
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
64.9%
Jamaal Williams run for 2 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+6
64.8%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Hunter Marshall for 6 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+3
64.6%
Jamaal Williams run for 3 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
64.4%
Jamaal Williams run for 1 yd to the MchSt 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
64.5%
Jamaal Williams run for no gain to the MchSt 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+20
65.1%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 20 yds to the MchSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
63.5%
Squally Canada run for 2 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
63.5%
Taysom Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+10
64.6%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Jonah Trinnaman for 10 yds to the MchSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
63.5%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Tanner BalderreeSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+8
63.5%
Jamaal Williams run for 8 yds to the MchSt 4Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+1
64.3%
Algernon Brown run for 1 yd to the MchSt 3Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 3
0
64.9%
Algernon Brown run for no gain to the MchSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
67.1%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the MchSt 6Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+16
66.9%
Gerald Holmes run for 16 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
67.6%
Gerald Holmes run for 4 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+3
67.6%
Gerald Holmes run for 3 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q2 10:12
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+1
67.1%
Gerald Holmes run for 1 yd to the MchSt 30Similar
Q2 10:12
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
66.5%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
68.0%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Jonah Trinnaman for 22 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
66.3%
Jamaal Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 44Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 11
OPP 44
-5
67.1%
HILL, Taysom rush for no gain to the MSU44 (Dowell, Andrew;Panasuik, Mike), PENALTY BYU illegal shift 5 yards to the MSU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 16
OPP 49
+7
68.0%
Jamaal Williams run for 7 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q2 6:36
3RD & 9
OPP 42
0
67.2%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Mitchell JuergensSimilar
Q2 6:36
4TH & 9
OPP 42
0
68.6%
Jonny Linehan punt for 37 yds, downed at the MchSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0070% → 68%
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
69.5%
LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the MchSt 10Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+4
69.7%
LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 14Similar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 1
OWN 14
0
69.0%
LJ Scott run for no gain to the MchSt 14Similar
Q2 4:14
4TH & 1
OWN 14
0
68.1%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Garrett Juergens at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9FG
16 plays · 31 yds · 2:3033% → 36%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
66.8%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Jonah Trinnaman for 7 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+1
66.4%
Taysom Hill run for 1 yd to the MchSt 41Similar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+1
66.6%
Jamaal Williams run for 1 yd to the MchSt 40Similar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+1
68.7%
Jamaal Williams run for 1 yd to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
69.1%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Nick KurtzSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+6
69.4%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Jonah Trinnaman for 6 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+4
69.7%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 4 yds to the MchSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
68.5%
Team pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+11
68.9%
Taysom Hill run for 11 yds to the MchSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
68.2%
Team pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+35
64.1%
Rhett Almond 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0066% → 64%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
65.7%
Tyler O'Connor pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 12 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
66.6%
R.J. Shelton run for 2 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+2
67.2%
Gerald Holmes run for 2 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 41
-4
66.3%
Tyler O'Connor sacked by Sae Tautu for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 37Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
63.9%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Garrett Juergens at the BYU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11TD
14 plays · 73 yds · 7:2935% → 57%
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
64.9%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Algernon Brown for 5 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 5
OWN 32
0
63.9%
Jamaal Williams run for no gain to the BYU 32Similar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+18
65.2%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Nick Kurtz for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
50
+5
61.5%
Jamaal Williams run for 5 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+6
61.5%
Taysom Hill run for 6 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
61.5%
Squally Canada run for 2 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+6
61.6%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Colby Pearson for 6 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+3
61.4%
Taysom Hill run for 3 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
60.1%
Jamaal Williams run for no gain to the MchSt 28Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+10
60.5%
HILL, Taysom pass incomplete to HIFO, Aleva, PENALTY MSU holding 10 yards to the MSU18, 1ST DOWN BYU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
60.1%
Taysom Hill run for 12 yds to the MchSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
60.1%
Jamaal Williams run for 2 yds to the MchSt 4Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
60.1%
Taysom Hill run for no gain to the MchSt 4Similar
Q3 4:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
43.5%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Colby Pearson for 4 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0050% → 47%
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
50.2%
Madre London run for 4 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
53.5%
Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Monty MadarisSimilar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 6
OWN 39
-9
50.2%
Tyler O'Connor sacked by Travis Tuiloma and Sae Tautu for a loss of 9 yards to the MchSt 30Similar
Q3 4:52
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
46.5%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Garrett Juergens at the BYU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 5:4854% → 80%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
46.0%
Jamaal Williams run for 3 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+8
45.4%
Jamaal Williams run for 8 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
43.8%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Algernon BrownSimilar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
44.6%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Jonah Trinnaman for 6 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+5
43.9%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Colby Pearson for 5 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
42.9%
Squally Canada run for 14 yds to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
41.7%
Squally Canada run for 9 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+2
39.4%
Squally Canada run for 2 yds to the MchSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
39.4%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Nick KurtzSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+5
40.0%
Jamaal Williams run for 5 yds to the MchSt 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+4
41.3%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Jamaal Williams for 4 yds to the MchSt 14Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+2
43.6%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Quin Ficklin for 2 yds to the MchSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
19.9%
Taysom Hill run for 12 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14INT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0024% → 27%
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
23.6%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 27Similar
Q4 12:36
1ST & 15
OWN 27
+1
22.8%
Damion Terry run for 1 yd to the MchSt 28Similar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 14
OWN 28
+2
22.4%
Gerald Holmes run for 2 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+11
21.5%
Damion Terry pass complete to Jamal Lyles for 11 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q4 12:36
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+1
22.8%
Damion Terry run for 1 yd to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
24.9%
Damion Terry pass complete to Josiah Price for 11 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+40
26.5%
Damion Terry pass intercepted Michael Davis return for 40 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15TD
3 plays · 32 yds · 1:2985% → 95%
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
14.9%
Jamaal Williams run for 3 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+21
14.5%
Squally Canada run for 21 yds to the MchSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
5.2%
Jamaal Williams run for 8 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:546% → 16%
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.9%
Damion Terry pass complete to Gerald Holmes for no gain to the MchSt 25Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
5.8%
Damion Terry pass complete to Gerald Holmes for 7 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+13
6.1%
Damion Terry run for 13 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+28
6.4%
Damion Terry pass complete to Felton Davis III for 28 yds to the BYU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
7.5%
Damion Terry pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+5
7.2%
Damion Terry run for 5 yds to the BYU 22Similar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+6
7.2%
Damion Terry pass complete to Gerald Holmes for 6 yds to the BYU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+14
7.5%
Terry, Damion pass incomplete to Corley, Donnie, PENALTY BYU pass interference 14 yards to the BYU2, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
7.2%
Damion Terry run for 1 yd to the BYU 1Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
7.5%
Gerald Holmes run for no gain to the BYU 1Similar
Q4 4:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
15.5%
Damion Terry run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17TD
13 plays · 82 yds · 2:5589% → 99%
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
11.5%
Jamaal Williams run for 1 yd to the BYU 19Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+8
11.1%
Jamaal Williams run for 8 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q4 4:42
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+2
10.8%
Taysom Hill run for 2 yds to the BYU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
9.9%
Jamaal Williams run for 3 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+4
9.3%
Jamaal Williams run for 4 yds to the BYU 36Similar
Q4 4:11
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+62
9.6%
Jamaal Williams run for 62 yds to the MchSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
5.5%
Jamaal Williams run for 1 yd to the MchSt 1Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.2%
Jamaal Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
0.9%
Damion Terry sacked by Austin Heder and Sae Tautu for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 15Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 12
OWN 15
0
0.9%
Damion Terry pass incomplete to Donnie CorleySimilar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 12
OWN 15
0
0.9%
Damion Terry pass incomplete to Gerald HolmesSimilar
Q4 1:52
4TH & 12
OWN 15
+9
0.9%
Damion Terry run for 9 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 19END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
1.1%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 26Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 12
OPP 26
-2
1.1%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:43
Taysom Hill run for 12 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK)
-23.8
TD · Q3 4:52
Taysom Hill pass complete to Colby Pearson for 4 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK)
-16.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 9:29
Jamaal Williams run for 3 yds to the MchSt 29
-11.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com