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TOL

Toledo 53 at BYU 55

BYU
2016 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2016 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of GameFG+14.8BYU 58.4%Rhett Almond 32 yd FG GOODAWAY 45 - HOME 45 · Q4 5:21
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:21 · Rhett Almond 32 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 160Pregame prior+1.2Home team on offense+3.1Garbage-time factor−1.4Score differential−1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 0:58: Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 15 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +23.6 pts (now 60%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 10:57: Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 78 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +29.7 pts (now 61%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 3:00: Jamaal Williams run for 14 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK) — BYU win probability +28.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:11: Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds for a TD, (Logan Woodside pass to Michael Roberts for Two-Point Conversion) — TOL win probability +64.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Rhett Almond 19 yd FG GOOD — BYU win probability +56.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6TOL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:27BYU 4th & 10 at TOL 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    62.9%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:24TOL 4th & 11 at TOL 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:51BYU 4th & 16 at BYU 1, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−2.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:31TOL 4th & 12 at TOL 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:03BYU 4th & 11 at BYU 3, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−1.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:04BYU 4th & 18 at BYU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−2.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:34TOL 4th & 5 at BYU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    38.4%−5.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:12BYU 4th & 7 at BYU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−1.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:17TOL 4th & 7 at BYU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.3%
    87% to make
    Punt
    32.7%−10.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:21BYU 4th & 11 at TOL 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−10.6
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    24.0%−20.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:30TOL 4th & 4 at BYU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    6.2%−4.0
    32% to make
    Punt
    5.9%−4.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7TOL made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 14:49BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:23TOL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:24BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:47BYU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 0:31TOL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 7:45TOL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:02TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 10:18BYU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 5:01BYU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 0:58TOL Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 13:20BYU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 10:57TOL Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.5%−0.6
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 3:00BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.0%−1.9
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 1:11TOL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 3.4 ptsWent for two · converted
    Kick
    40.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    37.3%−3.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BYUDrive 1TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
63.4%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Jonah Trinnaman for 75 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:1937% → 37%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
63.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 12 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
63.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+26
63.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 26 yds to the BYU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
63.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 3 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+11
63.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 11 yds to the BYU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
63.7%
Kareem Hunt run for 11 yds to the BYU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
62.9%
Terry Swanson run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:4563% → 63%
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
63.3%
Jamaal Williams run for 4 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+13
63.3%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Algernon Brown for 13 yds to the BYU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+17
63.5%
Jamaal Williams run for 17 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-3
63.7%
Taysom Hill sacked by Treyvon Hester for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 42Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 13
OPP 42
+3
63.5%
Jamaal Williams run for 3 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
63.5%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Moroni Laulu-PututauSimilar
Q1 9:27
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
63.1%
Jonny Linehan punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:5637% → 37%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
63.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 5 yds to the Toled 13Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+13
62.9%
Kareem Hunt run for 13 yds to the Toled 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
62.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+4
62.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 4 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q1 7:51
3RD & 1
OWN 35
-10
62.5%
Swanson, Terry rush for 21 yards to the BYU44, PENALTY TOLEDO holding (Roberts, Michael) 10 yards to the TOLEDO25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 11
OWN 25
0
63.0%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q1 7:24
4TH & 11
OWN 25
+4
63.2%
Nick Ellis punt for 51 yds , Garrett Juergens returns for 4 yds to the BYU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 2:5363% → 68%
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+17
62.9%
Jamaal Williams run for 17 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
63.5%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Jonah TrinnamanSimilar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+20
63.3%
Jamaal Williams run for 20 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
63.9%
Squally Canada run for 4 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+8
64.0%
Squally Canada run for 8 yds to the Toled 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
64.0%
Hill, Taysom pass pass intended for Trinnaman, Jonah intercepted by Martin, Jordan at the TOLEDO0, Martin, Jordan return 0 yards to the TOLEDO0, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (Martin, Jordan) 15 yards to the TOLEDO8, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BYU.Similar
Q1 4:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
64.0%
Jamaal Williams run for 7 yds to the Toled 1Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.6%
Jamaal Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6INT
6 plays · 28 yds · 2:0634% → 34%
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
66.4%
Kareem Hunt run for no gain to the Toled 23Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+11
66.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 11 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
66.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 10 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-3
65.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 41Similar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 13
OWN 41
+10
66.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 10 yds to the BYU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7TD
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:2168% → 74%
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
68.4%
Jamaal Williams run for 11 yds to the Toled 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
73.9%
Jamaal Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8TD
2 plays · 79 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+79
67.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 79 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:2867% → 67%
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
67.3%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Hunter Marshall, broken up by John StepecSimilar
Q1 0:19
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+1
67.2%
Jamaal Williams run for 8 yds to the BYU 15 BYU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Nick Kurtz) to the BYU 8Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 8
0
67.3%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Nick KurtzSimilar
Q2 14:42
3RD & 9
OWN 8
-7
66.8%
Taysom Hill sacked by Ja'Wuan Woodley for a loss of 7 yards to the BYU 1Similar
Q2 13:51
4TH & 16
OWN 1
+6
66.5%
Jonny Linehan punt for 54 yds , Corey Jones returns for 6 yds to the BYU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:1434% → 32%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
65.8%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+1
66.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the BYU 48Similar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 9
OPP 48
-3
66.7%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 49Similar
Q2 12:31
4TH & 12
OWN 49
0
68.2%
Nick Ellis punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2268% → 67%
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
68.0%
Jamaal Williams run for no gain to the BYU 4Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 10
OWN 4
-1
68.1%
Jamaal Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 3Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 11
OWN 3
0
67.6%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Nick KurtzSimilar
Q2 11:03
4TH & 11
OWN 3
0
67.0%
Jonny Linehan punt for 58 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12TD
9 plays · 61 yds · 3:1133% → 44%
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
67.1%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
66.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey Jones, broken up by Sae TautuSimilar
Q2 10:27
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+8
66.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 8 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
66.3%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+9
66.7%
Kareem Hunt run for 9 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
66.7%
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+2
65.6%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+2
67.1%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the BYU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
56.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 26 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 5 yds · 3:2762% → 60%
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
62.0%
Squally Canada run for 4 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
62.3%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Squally CanadaSimilar
Q2 6:49
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
61.3%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 9 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
63.0%
Squally Canada run for 7 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 3
OWN 45
0
64.1%
Squally Canada run for no gain to the BYU 45Similar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 3
OWN 45
-5
63.2%
BYU Penalty, False Start (Aleva Hifo) to the BYU 40Similar
Q2 4:42
3RD & 8
OWN 40
-10
61.9%
Taysom Hill sacked by Tyler Taafe and Olasunkanmi Adeniyi for a loss of 10 yards to the BYU 30Similar
Q2 4:04
4TH & 18
OWN 30
0
59.7%
Jonny Linehan punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14MISSED FG
12 plays · 47 yds · 3:2542% → 43%
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
58.2%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+13
58.5%
Terry Swanson run for 13 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
56.4%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+9
56.1%
Terry Swanson run for 9 yds to the BYU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
55.2%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 1 yd to the BYU 43Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
55.1%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+15
55.9%
Woodside, Logan pass incomplete to Johnson, Jon'Vea (Wilcox, Chris), PENALTY BYU pass interference (Wilcox, Chris) 15 yards to the BYU28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO.Similar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-8
53.1%
Logan Woodside sacked by Corbin Kaufusi for a loss of 8 yards to the BYU 36Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 18
OPP 36
+13
55.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 13 yds to the BYU 23Similar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 5
OPP 23
0
54.1%
Kareem Hunt run for no gain to the BYU 23Similar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+40
56.7%
Jameson Vest 40 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Tomasi LaulileSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:1962% → 58%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
62.4%
Jamaal Williams run for 3 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
61.2%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Jonah TrinnamanSimilar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 7
OWN 26
0
59.5%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Mitchell JuergensSimilar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 7
OWN 26
0
58.2%
Jonny Linehan punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
57.0%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the Toled 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17TD
10 plays · 83 yds · 3:4342% → 62%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
57.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 2 yds to the Toled 19Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+17
57.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 17 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
56.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 3 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+14
55.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 14 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
54.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+10
53.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Darryl Richards for 10 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+17
52.9%
Kareem Hunt run for 17 yds to the BYU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
52.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the BYU 12Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+12
38.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 12 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18TD
3 plays · 72 yds · 0:2944% → 64%
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+24
43.5%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Algernon Brown for 24 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
64.0%
Jamaal Williams run for 48 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19FG
9 plays · 64 yds · 1:5043% → 51%
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+46
57.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 46 yds to the BYU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
52.0%
Woodside, Logan pass incomplete to Jones, Corey, PENALTY BYU personal foul (Langi, Harvey) 15 yards to the BYU14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO.Similar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-3
52.0%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 17Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 13
OPP 17
+10
52.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 10 yds to the BYU 7Similar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 3
OPP 7
-10
53.2%
Hunt, Kareem rush for 1 yard to the BYU6, PENALTY TOLEDO holding (Jeppesen, Nate) 10 yards to the BYU17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 13
OPP 17
+11
54.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Terry Swanson for 11 yds to the BYU 6Similar
Q3 8:20
4TH & 2
OPP 6
-5
55.0%
TOLEDO Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the BYU 11Similar
Q3 8:17
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+28
49.4%
Jameson Vest 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20TD
7 plays · 86 yds · 2:5651% → 71%
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
51.3%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Colby Pearson for 8 yds to the BYU 22Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+5
52.0%
Jamaal Williams run for 5 yds to the BYU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
51.7%
Jamaal Williams run for 2 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+4
51.4%
Taysom Hill run for 4 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q3 5:39
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+5
50.6%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 5 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
71.0%
Jamaal Williams run for 62 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 3:4432% → 60%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-3
67.6%
Logan Woodside run for 7 yds to the Toled 24 TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cody Thompson) to the Toled 14Similar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 13
OWN 14
+5
67.9%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the Toled 19Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+15
68.0%
Woodside, Logan pass incomplete to Johnson, Jon'Vea, PENALTY BYU personal foul (Tautu, Sae) 15 yards to the TOLEDO34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO. Tautu ejected for targeting.Similar
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
66.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for no gain to the Toled 34Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+11
67.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 11 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
64.7%
Kareem Hunt run for 12 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
63.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+1
63.3%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the BYU 40Similar
Q3 1:34
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+25
63.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 25 yds to the BYU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
40.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 15 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 22TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 2:2248% → 76%
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+27
48.3%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Tanner Balderree for 27 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
52.8%
Jamaal Williams run for 5 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+5
53.7%
Jamaal Williams run for 5 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+19
53.6%
Jamaal Williams run for 19 yds to the Toled 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
55.9%
Squally Canada run for 6 yds to the Toled 17Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+17
76.0%
Squally Canada run for 17 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23TD
5 plays · 90 yds · 2:1331% → 61%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-4
68.7%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the Toled 12 TOLEDO Penalty, Illegal Block (Nate Jeppesen) to the Toled 6Similar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 14
OWN 6
+5
69.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the Toled 11Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+10
69.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 10 yds to the Toled 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
68.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the Toled 22Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+78
38.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 78 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 24FG
13 plays · 70 yds · 5:2444% → 58%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
44.0%
Jamaal Williams run for 10 yds to the BYU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
42.6%
Jamaal Williams run for 4 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+8
43.4%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Tanner Balderree for 8 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
44.2%
Squally Canada run for 3 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+19
46.2%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Brayden El-Bakri for 19 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
47.7%
Squally Canada run for no gain to the Toled 39Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+27
46.9%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Tanner Balderree for 27 yds to the Toled 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
48.3%
Jamaal Williams run for 1 yd to the Toled 11Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 9
OPP 11
-10
47.9%
Williams, Jamaal rush for 11 yards to the TOLEDO0, PENALTY BYU holding (Eide, Andrew) 10 yards to the TOLEDO21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 19
OPP 21
+8
46.6%
Taysom Hill run for 8 yds to the Toled 13Similar
Q4 5:26
3RD & 11
OPP 13
0
43.5%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Colby PearsonSimilar
Q4 5:21
4TH & 11
OPP 13
+32
58.4%
Rhett Almond 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 25INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4049% → 47%
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
51.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
50.8%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+20
53.0%
Logan Woodside pass intercepted Kai Nacua return for 20 yds to the Toled 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 26TD
3 plays · 21 yds · 1:2065% → 94%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
65.2%
Jamaal Williams run for 2 yds to the Toled 19Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+5
65.2%
Jamaal Williams run for 5 yds to the Toled 14Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+14
93.7%
Jamaal Williams run for 14 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 27TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 1:3113% → 79%
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
87.5%
Kareem Hunt run for no gain to the Toled 21Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+17
87.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 17 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
86.6%
Woodside, Logan pass incomplete to Johnson, Jon'Vea, PENALTY BYU pass interference (Davis, Michael) 15 yards to the BYU47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO.Similar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-4
84.5%
Logan Woodside sacked by Trajan Pili for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 49Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 14
OWN 49
+10
89.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 10 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 4
OPP 41
0
87.5%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the BYU 41Similar
Q4 1:30
4TH & 4
OPP 41
+18
90.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 18 yds to the BYU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+16
85.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 16 yds to the BYU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
21.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds for a TD, (Logan Woodside pass to Michael Roberts for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 28END OF GAME
13 plays · 71 yds · 1:0344% → 96%
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
43.6%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Nick KurtzSimilar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+33
42.0%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Colby Pearson for 33 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+23
49.5%
Jamaal Williams run for 8 yds to the Toled 32 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Marc Remy) to the Toled 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
54.0%
Jamaal Williams run for no gain to the Toled 17Similar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+11
55.4%
Taysom Hill run for 11 yds to the Toled 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
59.0%
Jamaal Williams run for 1 yd to the Toled 5Similar
Q4 0:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
53.8%
Jamaal Williams run for 3 yds to the Toled 2Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
95.6%
Rhett Almond 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:11
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds for a TD, (Logan Woodside pass to Michael Roberts for Two-Point Conversion)
-64.3
FG · Q4 0:00
Rhett Almond 19 yd FG GOOD
+56.7
TD · Q4 10:57
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 78 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
-29.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com