View as
Win probability · UTAH
modelUTAH aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTAH scoreBYU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:15 · Mitchell Juergens pass complete to Corbin Kaufusi for 9 yds to the Utah 16 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 4:06: Taysom Hill run for 39 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +13.9 pts (now 54%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:17: Troy Williams pass complete to Tim Patrick for 21 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK) — UTAH win probability +15.6 pts (now 67%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- FG · Q4 2:47: Andy Phillips 29 yd FG GOOD — UTAH win probability +5.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:18: Taysom Hill 7 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — BYU win probability +24.6 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q4 0:18: Timeout BYU, clock 00:18 — BYU win probability +4.9 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Inside the two-minute warning).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UTAH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5BYU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
- Q1 14:44BYU 4th & 5 at BYU 30, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.6% before the snapGo for it36.6%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.6%average punt
- Q1 12:15BYU 4th & 6 at UTAH 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call36.0%39% to convertField goal36.0%−<0.166% to makePunt35.6%−0.4average punt
- Q1 9:44BYU 4th & 20 at UTAH 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.0% before the snapGo for it34.7%−0.39% to convertField goalTheir call35.0%64% to makePunt34.4%−0.6average punt
- Q1 5:04BYU 4th & 9 at UTAH 25, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.0% before the snapGo for it36.0%−0.131% to convertField goalTheir call36.1%66% to makePunt34.3%−1.8average punt
- Q1 4:58UTAH 4th & 5 at UTAH 27, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snapGo for it63.0%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.2%average punt
- Q2 15:00BYU 4th & 3 at BYU 42, down 1Close callPunted · 36.7% before the snapGo for it37.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.9%−0.1average punt
- Q2 13:57BYU 4th & 3 at UTAH 46, down 1Close callPunted · 37.3% before the snapGo for it37.6%52% to convertField goal36.6%−1.023% to makePuntTheir call37.2%−0.4average punt
- Q3 14:54UTAH 4th & 6 at UTAH 18, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.4% before the snapGo for it62.0%−0.638% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.6%average punt
- Q3 13:32BYU 4th & 18 at UTAH 47, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snapGo for it33.9%−2.913% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.8%average punt
- Q3 7:53UTAH 4th & 7 at BYU 30, up 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.4% before the snapGo for it65.1%−0.237% to convertField goalTheir call65.4%56% to makePunt63.2%−2.2average punt
- Q3 6:10UTAH 4th & 11 at midfield, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.4% before the snapGo for it68.1%−1.326% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.4%average punt
- Q3 1:30BYU 4th & 3 at BYU 10, down 4Close callPunted · 28.7% before the snapGo for it29.3%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.3%−0.9average punt
- Q4 15:00BYU 4th & 4 at UTAH 45, down 4Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 33.5% before the snapGo for it34.6%48% to convertField goal31.1%−3.525% to makePuntTheir call33.2%−1.4average punt
- Q4 2:47UTAH 4th & 6 at BYU 12, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.2% before the snapGo for it83.7%−0.636% to convertField goalTheir call84.3%86% to makePunt70.3%−14.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTAH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BYU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 14:44UTAH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call63.5%97% to makeGo for two63.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:06BYU Touchdown, up 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.0%97% to makeGo for two48.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:17UTAH Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.5%97% to makeGo for two59.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:18BYU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryNumbers favored kick by 2.6 ptsWent for two · failedKick41.0%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call38.4%−2.645% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBYUDrive 1INT TD2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+41
61.4%
Taysom Hill pass intercepted for a TD Sunia Tauteoli return for 41 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
UTAHDrive 3FUMBLE2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
BYUDrive 4FG9 plays · 3 yds · 3:1738% → 37%
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-4
61.7%
Taysom Hill sacked by Brian Allen for a loss of 4 yards to the Utah 33Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 14
OPP 33
+8
62.2%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 8 yds to the Utah 25Similar
Q1 12:15
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+9
62.2%
Mitchell Juergens pass complete to Corbin Kaufusi for 9 yds to the Utah 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-8
61.9%
Taysom Hill sacked by Pita Taumoepenu for a loss of 8 yards to the Utah 28 Taysom Hill fumbled, recovered by BYU Taysom Hill , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 5FUMBLE5 plays · 23 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 9:39
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+11
62.0%
Troy Williams pass complete to Tyrone Smith for 11 yds to the Utah 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
62.1%
Troy Williams pass complete to Harrison Handley for 8 yds to the Utah 36Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+2
62.4%
Joe Williams run for 2 yds to the Utah 37 Joe Williams fumbled, forced by Harvey Langi, recovered by BYU Dayan LakeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6FG8 plays · 12 yds · 2:5338% → 38%
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-11
62.2%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Ului Lapuaho for 4 yds to the Utah 33 BYU Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the Utah 48Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 19
OPP 46
+9
62.5%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Jonah Trinnaman for 9 yds to the Utah 37Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+11
62.4%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 11 yds to the Utah 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 7PUNT8 plays · 11 yds · 0:0062% → 63%
Q1 4:58
3RD & 4
OWN 28
-1
62.2%
Troy Williams pass complete to Tim Patrick for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 22 yds · 2:2438% → 38%
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
62.0%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Jonah Trinnaman BYU Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 2:24
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+8
62.0%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Colby Pearson for 8 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+9
62.0%
Jonny Linehan punt for 43 yds , Boobie Hobbs returns for 9 yds to the Utah 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 9INT3 plays · 15 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q2 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+15
62.6%
Troy Williams pass complete to Evan Moeai for 15 yds to the Utah 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+26
63.3%
Troy Williams pass intercepted Kai Nacua return for 11 yds to the 50 yard line BYU Penalty, illegal block (Francis Bernard) to the BYU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 13:57
2ND & 7
50
+5
60.5%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 5 yds to the Utah 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 11INT11 plays · 76 yds · 0:0063% → 65%
Q2 11:59
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+49
63.1%
Troy Williams pass complete to Tyrone Smith for 49 yds to the BYU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
65.3%
Troy Williams pass complete to Demari Simpkins for 1 yd to the BYU 18Similar
Q2 11:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
64.6%
Troy Williams pass intercepted, touchback. Kai Nacua return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12TD6 plays · 80 yds · 2:0637% → 51%
UTAHDrive 13TD14 plays · 72 yds · 3:4152% → 67%
Q2 3:58
2ND & 8
OPP 41
-4
54.3%
Zack Moss run for 6 yds to the BYU 35 UTAH Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the BYU 45Similar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+13
53.1%
Troy Williams pass complete to Harrison Handley for 13 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
55.8%
Troy McCormick run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 30 Troy McCormick fumbled, recovered by Utah Troy McCormickSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
67.3%
Troy Williams pass complete to Tim Patrick for 21 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14END OF HALF4 plays · 27 yds · 0:0038% → 39%
UTAHDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0063% → 61%
Q3 14:54
4TH & 6
OWN 18
+9
61.3%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 65 yds , Garrett Juergens returns for 9 yds to the BYU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16PUNT10 plays · 27 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q3 13:32
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+5
62.8%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 5 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+15
60.2%
HILL, Taysom pass incomplete, PENALTY UTAH personal foul (Mokofisi,Filipo) 15 yards to the UTAH39, 1ST DOWN BYU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
59.3%
WILLIAMS, Jamaa rush for 3 yards to the UTAH36 (Barton, Cody;Allen, Brian), PENALTY BYU holding (BALDERREE, Tann) 10 yards to the UTAH49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 18
OPP 47
0
60.9%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Nick Kurtz, broken up by Filipo MokofisiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 17FG5 plays · 42 yds · 1:4864% → 69%
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+39
63.7%
Troy Williams pass complete to Tim Patrick for 39 yds to the BYU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:41
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+1
66.5%
Troy Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 30 Troy Williams fumbled, recovered by Utah Troy Williams , return for 1 yd to the BYU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18INT5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0033% → 36%
UTAHDrive 19PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0072% → 68%
BYUDrive 20INT3 plays · 21 yds · 0:0033% → 34%
UTAHDrive 21INT6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0073% → 74%
Q3 3:52
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-10
72.7%
Williams, Troy sacked for loss of 2 yards to the 50 yardline (WARNER, Fred), PENALTY UTAH holding (Bolles, Garett) 10 yards to the UTAH42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 20
OWN 42
+15
70.4%
Williams, Troy pass incomplete to Simpkins,Demari (NACUA, Kai), PENALTY BYU targeting (NACUA, Kai) 15 yards to the BYU43, 1ST DOWN UTAH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
73.2%
BYU Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the BYU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
74.1%
Troy Williams pass intercepted Francis Bernard return for no gain to the BYU 28 BYU Penalty, targeting (Austin McChesney) to the BYU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4132% → 27%
Q3 1:30
3RD & 10
OWN 3
+7
73.4%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 7 yds to the BYU 10 BYU Penalty, illegal shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 1:30
4TH & 3
OWN 10
0
73.2%
Rhett Almond punt for 39 yds , Boobie Hobbs returns for no gain to the BYU 49 Boobie Hobbs fumbled, recovered by BYU Michael DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4433% → 31%
UTAHDrive 24FG23 plays · 78 yds · 11:2173% → 93%
Q4 14:08
3RD & 15
OWN 5
+15
70.6%
Williams, Troy pass incomplete to Patrick, Tim (WILCOX, Chris), PENALTY BYU pass interference (WILCOX, Chris) 15 yards to the UTAH20, 1ST DOWN UTAH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
72.9%
Williams, Troy pass incomplete to Young, Kenric, PENALTY UTAH pass interference (Young, Kenric) 10 yards to the UTAH10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+5
73.6%
Troy Williams pass complete to Demari Simpkins for 5 yds to the Utah 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+10
75.5%
Troy Williams pass complete to Raelon Singleton for 10 yds to the BYU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 11
OPP 17
+6
77.5%
Troy Williams pass complete to Evan Moeai for 6 yds to the BYU 11Similar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+4
76.2%
Troy Williams pass complete to Joe Williams for 4 yds to the BYU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 25TD17 plays · 75 yds · 2:2911% → 41%
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
87.1%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Jonah Trinnaman for 18 yds to the Utah 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
85.2%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Mitchell Juergens, broken up by Cody BartonSimilar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+3
84.3%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 3 yds to the Utah 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+9
86.0%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Cody Stewart for 9 yds to the Utah 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
83.8%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Moroni Laulu-Pututau for 5 yds to the Utah 14Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+12
83.8%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 12 yds to the Utah 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 26END OF GAME2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:18
Taysom Hill 7 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
-24.6
TD · Q2 0:17
Troy Williams pass complete to Tim Patrick for 21 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)
+15.6
TD · Q2 4:06
Taysom Hill run for 39 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)
-13.9