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NAVY

Navy 17 at Army 21

ARMY
2016 · Week 15 · Dec 10, 2016 · M&T Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:27 · Alex Barta punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 33Pregame prior−16.8Home team on offense+2.6Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:12: Andy Davidson 1 Yd Run (Blake Wilson Kick) — ARMY win probability +8.3 pts (now 59%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:23: Zach Abey 1 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick) — NAVY win probability +16.0 pts (now 46%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 1:15: Zach Abey pass incomplete to Jamir Tillman — NAVY win probability +6.6 pts (now 39%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:42: Zach Abey 41 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick) — NAVY win probability +32.5 pts (now 66%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:00: Ahmad Bradshaw 9 Yd Run (Blake Wilson Kick) — ARMY win probability +36.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 2 of 4NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q2 13:27NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 31, down 7
    Close callPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q2 8:15ARMY 4th & 2 at NAVY 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    42.7%−0.7
    83% to make
    Punt
    38.2%−5.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 5:01NAVY 4th & 4 at NAVY 39, down 14
    Close callPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q3 9:19ARMY 4th & 3 at ARMY 35, up 7
    Close callPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.5%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q3 3:59NAVY 4th & 10 at ARMY 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−2.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.2%
    87% to make
    Punt
    24.2%−13.0
    average punt
  6. Q3 0:07NAVY 4th & 13 at NAVY 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−4.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  7. Q4 13:29ARMY 4th & 3 at ARMY 28, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.5%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q4 6:55ARMY 4th & 1 at NAVY 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    38.4%−1.0
    79% to make
    Punt
    21.1%−18.3
    average punt
  9. Q4 4:07NAVY 4th & 4 at NAVY 40, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.5 ptsPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%−4.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 2 of 3NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 4:23ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:12ARMY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:23NAVY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:42NAVY Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:00ARMY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.9%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1FUMBLE
6 plays · 34 yds · 2:4872% → 71%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
28.1%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+4
28.2%
Chris High run for 4 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+10
28.6%
Chris High run for 10 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
28.8%
Zach Abey run for 4 yds to the Army 48Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+14
29.1%
Shawn White run for 14 yds to the Army 34 Shawn White fumbled, forced by Xavier Moss, recovered by Army Rhyan EnglandSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2TD
14 plays · 66 yds · 7:2730% → 38%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
29.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 6 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+1
30.0%
Andy Davidson run for 1 yd to the Army 41Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+6
30.4%
Kell Walker run for 6 yds to the Army 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
30.9%
Kell Walker run for 6 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 4
OPP 47
0
31.2%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Joe WalkerSimilar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+4
31.3%
Andy Davidson run for 4 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
31.8%
Kell Walker run for 2 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+9
31.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 9 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
32.5%
Malik McGue run for 1 yd to the Navy 31Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+8
32.9%
John Trainor run for 8 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+6
32.8%
Andy Davidson run for 6 yds to the Navy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+13
33.7%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 13 yds to the Navy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
34.0%
Andy Davidson run for 3 yds to the Navy 1Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
37.8%
Andy Davidson 1 Yd Run (Blake Wilson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
36.7%
Zach Abey pass intercepted Xavier Moss return for a loss of 5 yards to the Army 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4INT
7 plays · 25 yds · 3:1938% → 41%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
37.5%
Kell Walker run for 6 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+5
38.9%
Andy Davidson run for 5 yds to the Army 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
39.0%
Kell Walker run for 4 yds to the Army 47Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+5
39.4%
NAVY Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Navy 48Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+5
39.8%
Andy Davidson run for 5 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
40.8%
Darnell Woolfolk run for no gain to the Navy 43Similar
Q1 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
41.2%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass intercepted Sean Williams return for no gain to the Navy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5360% → 59%
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
39.6%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd to the Navy 23Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+2
40.1%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the Navy 25Similar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+6
41.5%
Zach Abey run for 6 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q2 13:27
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
41.5%
Alex Barta punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6TD
11 plays · 46 yds · 6:0344% → 59%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
43.5%
Kell Walker run for 5 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+7
44.0%
Andy Davidson run for 7 yds to the Navy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
44.7%
Andy Davidson run for 1 yd to the Navy 33Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+1
45.6%
Tyler Campbell run for 1 yd to the Navy 32Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+9
45.7%
Kell Walker run for 9 yds to the Navy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
46.7%
Kell Walker run for 5 yds to the Navy 18Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+1
47.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 1 yd to the Navy 17Similar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+2
47.6%
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds to the Navy 15Similar
Q2 8:15
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+3
46.9%
Andy Davidson run for 3 yds to the Navy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
50.3%
Kell Walker run for 11 yds to the Navy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.6%
Andy Davidson 1 Yd Run (Blake Wilson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:5944% → 41%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
56.1%
Chris High run for no gain to the Navy 33Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-6
56.3%
Zach Abey sacked by Jeremy Timpf and Alex Aukerman for a loss of 6 yards to the Navy 27Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 16
OWN 27
+12
59.3%
Zach Abey pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 12 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q2 5:01
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
59.2%
Alex Barta punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Malik McGue at the Army 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8FUMBLE
9 plays · 44 yds · 3:3060% → 70%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
60.1%
Jordan Asberry run for 11 yds to the Army 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
61.1%
Kell Walker run for 7 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
63.4%
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
63.9%
Andy Davidson run for 6 yds to the Army 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
65.9%
Andy Davidson run for 3 yds to the Army 43Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
67.3%
Jordan Asberry run for no gain to the Army 43Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+15
68.1%
Kell Walker run for 15 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
69.6%
Andy Davidson run for no gain to the Navy 42 Andy Davidson fumbled, forced by Tyler Sayles, recovered by Navy Winn HowardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
65.6%
Zach Abey pass intercepted Rhyan England return for 3 yds to the Army 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:3070% → 71%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
69.9%
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+4
70.5%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Army 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 11FUMBLE
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:2270% → 70%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
69.6%
Andy Davidson run for 3 yds to the Army 20Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+12
69.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 12 yds to the Army 32 Ahmad Bradshaw fumbled, forced by Jarid Ryan, recovered by Navy Sean WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12TD
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:3735% → 46%
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
65.3%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+2
65.8%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+16
69.8%
Zach Abey pass complete to Shawn White for 16 yds to the Army 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
69.4%
Shawn White run for 7 yds to the Army 4Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+3
70.0%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the Army 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
54.0%
Zach Abey 1 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4161% → 63%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
61.3%
Andy Davidson run for 3 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+2
61.6%
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+2
63.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the Army 35Similar
Q3 9:19
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
63.4%
J.D. Mote punt for 30 yds, downed at the Navy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14FG
11 plays · 54 yds · 5:2039% → 42%
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
60.6%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 30Similar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+3
61.8%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+29
62.4%
Zach Abey pass complete to Brandon Colon for 29 yds to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
58.8%
Chris High run for 3 yds to the Army 35Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+9
57.3%
Zach Abey pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 9 yds to the Army 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
57.6%
Zach Abey run for 6 yds to the Army 20Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+9
58.1%
Zach Abey run for 9 yds to the Army 11 Zach Abey fumbled, recovered by Navy for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
58.4%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd to the Army 10Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+2
59.0%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the Army 8Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 7
OPP 8
-3
62.4%
Zach Abey run for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 11Similar
Q3 3:59
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+28
58.5%
Bennett Moehring 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 15FUMBLE
6 plays · 39 yds · 1:5862% → 67%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
61.9%
Andy Davidson run for 4 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+17
62.7%
Tyler Campbell run for 17 yds to the Army 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
65.9%
Kell Walker run for 12 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
67.1%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+2
67.4%
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds to the Navy 36 Andy Davidson fumbled, forced by Jackson Pittman, recovered by Navy Sean WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:0839% → 29%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
60.8%
Zach Abey pass incomplete to Jamir TillmanSimilar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
61.9%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q3 0:27
3RD & 8
OWN 38
-5
67.7%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 33Similar
Q3 0:20
3RD & 13
OWN 33
0
70.1%
Zach Abey pass incomplete to Jamir TillmanSimilar
Q3 0:07
4TH & 13
OWN 33
0
71.2%
Alex Barta punt for 46 yds, downed at the Army 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3266% → 66%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
66.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 4 yds to the Army 25Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
66.6%
Kell Walker run for no gain to the Army 25Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+3
65.6%
Kell Walker run for 3 yds to the Army 28Similar
Q4 13:29
4TH & 3
OWN 28
0
65.8%
J.D. Mote punt for 25 yds, downed at the Navy 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18TD
2 plays · 53 yds · 0:3834% → 66%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
66.4%
Zach Abey pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 12 yds to the Army 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
33.9%
Zach Abey 41 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 19TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 6:3541% → 84%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+29
40.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Edgar Poe for 29 yds to the Army 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
45.8%
Andy Davidson run for 9 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+2
46.4%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
46.3%
Kell Walker run for no gain to the Navy 40Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+7
44.9%
Jordan Asberry run for 7 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+6
45.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 6 yds to the Navy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
48.9%
Andy Davidson run for no gain to the Navy 27Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+3
48.8%
Kell Walker run for 3 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+6
45.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Joe Walker for 6 yds to the Navy 18Similar
Q4 6:55
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+7
42.4%
Andy Davidson run for 7 yds to the Navy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
47.9%
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds to the Navy 9Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+9
83.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw 9 Yd Run (Blake Wilson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2824% → 18%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-6
75.8%
Zach Abey sacked by Jeremy Timpf and Alex Aukerman for a loss of 6 yards to the Navy 28Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 16
OWN 28
+11
80.0%
Zach Abey pass complete to Shawn White for 11 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q4 4:35
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+1
79.7%
Shawn White run for 1 yd to the Navy 40Similar
Q4 4:07
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
82.0%
Alex Barta punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Malik McGue at the Army 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 21END OF GAME
9 plays · 21 yds · 3:3886% → 95%
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
85.8%
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds to the Army 25Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+11
86.4%
Tyler Campbell run for 11 yds to the Army 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
89.4%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 8 yds to the Army 44Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+1
91.8%
Andy Davidson run for 1 yd to the Army 45Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
91.2%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the Army 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
94.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 46Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 11
OWN 46
-1
94.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 45Similar
Q4 0:02
3RD & 12
OWN 45
-1
94.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:00
Ahmad Bradshaw 9 Yd Run (Blake Wilson Kick)
+36
TD · Q4 12:42
Zach Abey 41 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)
-32.5
TD · Q3 11:23
Zach Abey 1 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)
-16
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com