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AF

Air Force 31 at Army 12

ARMY
2016 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2016 · Michie Stadium
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Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:29 · J.D. Mote punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+52.0+26.00−26.0−52.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 57Home team on offense−2.3Score differential−0.8Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Pregame prior−3.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:19: Kell Walker run for 32 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson PAT BLOCKED) — ARMY win probability +9.1 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q3 11:31: Arion Worthman pass complete to Jacobi Owens for 46 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +13.2 pts (now 73%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:55: Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Edgar Poe for 14 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ARMY win probability +11.7 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q3 3:34: Timothy McVey run for 4 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +13.5 pts (now 82%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:50: Arion Worthman run for 4 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +8.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 5 of 7AF made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 15:00ARMY 4th & 21 at AF 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    43.6%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:09AF 4th & 1 at ARMY 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    55.1%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    55.0%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:05AF 4th & 26 at ARMY 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−1.0
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    50.9%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00ARMY 4th & 8 at ARMY 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:39AF 4th & 3 at ARMY 3, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.6%−1.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    48.4%−6.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:29ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 17, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.1%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 3:24ARMY 4th & 6 at ARMY 20, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%
    average punt
  8. Q4 15:00AF 4th & 4 at ARMY 48, up 12
    Close callPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:38ARMY 4th & 5 at ARMY 25, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:50ARMY 4th & 7 at AF 10, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.4%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    5.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−3.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:18AF 4th & 2 at AF 38, up 19
    Close callPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:04ARMY 4th & 7 at ARMY 24, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.4%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 1 of 2AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q2 4:34AF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:19ARMY Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    43.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:31AF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:55ARMY Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    38.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    38.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:34AF Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:50AF Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARMYDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-3
44.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 23
+33
44.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Jeff Ejekam for 33 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
44.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 9 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+4
44.7%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
44.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 28
-6
44.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 34
-8
44.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw sacked by Jacob Onyechi for a loss of 8 yards to the AFA 42Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 21
OPP 42
0
44.7%
J.D. Mote punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2MISSED FG
18 plays · 57 yds · 9:0454% → 52%
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
45.9%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd to the AFA 15Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+11
45.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 11 yds to the AFA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
45.9%
Arion Worthman run for 15 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+20
45.5%
Tyler Williams run for 5 yds to the Army 46 for a 1ST down ARMY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jeremy Timpf) to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
45.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 5 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 5
OPP 34
-5
45.2%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (Ryan Reffitt) to the Army 39Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+9
45.4%
Ronald Cleveland run for 9 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 1
OPP 30
0
45.4%
D.J. Johnson run for no gain to the Army 30Similar
Q1 10:09
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+3
45.6%
Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the Army 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
45.7%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd to the Army 26Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+1
45.8%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd to the Army 25Similar
Q1 5:23
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+12
46.2%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Shayne Davern for 12 yds to the Army 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
45.7%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd to the Army 12Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 9
OPP 12
-3
45.7%
Ronald Cleveland run for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 15Similar
Q1 5:23
3RD & 12
OPP 15
-15
46.2%
AIR FORCE Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the Army 30Similar
Q1 5:23
3RD & 27
OPP 30
+1
46.8%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd to the Army 29Similar
Q1 1:05
4TH & 26
OPP 29
+47
48.1%
Luke Strebel 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:0549% → 49%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
49.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q1 1:05
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+7
49.1%
Tyler Campbell run for 7 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+2
50.1%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Army 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
50.3%
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
50.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Edgar PoeSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
49.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Edgar Poe, broken up by Jesse WashingtonSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
48.9%
J.D. Mote punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4FUMBLE
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
48.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the AFA 17 D.J. Johnson fumbled, forced by Andrew King, recovered by Army Alex AukermanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 5INT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0652% → 51%
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
52.2%
Kell Walker pass incomplete to Tyler Campbell, broken up by Jesse WashingtonSimilar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+5
51.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 5 yds to the AFA 12Similar
Q2 13:12
3RD & 5
OPP 12
-5
50.6%
ARMY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 17Similar
Q2 13:12
3RD & 10
OPP 17
0
50.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass intercepted, touchback. Weston Steelhammer return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6FG
12 plays · 77 yds · 4:2152% → 56%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+45
47.8%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 45 yds to the Army 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
45.2%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Army 45Similar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 20
OPP 45
+3
46.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 17
OPP 42
+2
46.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 15
OPP 40
+25
47.6%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 25 yds to the Army 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
45.0%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Jalen Robinette, broken up by Xavier MossSimilar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-5
45.0%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Army 20Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 15
OPP 20
+12
45.7%
Timothy McVey run for 5 yds to the Army 15 for a 1ST down ARMY Penalty, UR (Elijah Riley) to the Army 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
45.0%
Tyler Williams run for 3 yds to the Army 5Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
45.0%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Timothy McVeySimilar
Q2 12:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
45.8%
Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the Army 3 AIR FORCE Penalty, illegal motion ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 7:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
43.6%
Luke Strebel 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0044% → 43%
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
44.1%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Army 10Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+3
44.2%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Army 13Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 5
OWN 13
+4
43.3%
Andy Davidson run for 4 yds to the Army 17Similar
Q2 7:29
4TH & 1
OWN 17
0
43.0%
J.D. Mote punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8TD
3 plays · 55 yds · 0:5957% → 67%
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+34
42.6%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 34 yds to the Army 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
41.1%
Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the Army 17Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+17
33.3%
Shayne Davern run for 17 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 9TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:1535% → 47%
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
35.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Edgar Poe for 12 yds to the Army 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
36.4%
Jordan Asberry run for 2 yds to the Army 49Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+2
36.4%
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+14
36.4%
Bradshaw, Ahmad pass incomplete to Poe, Edgar, PENALTY AF pass interference (WASHINGTON, Jes) 14 yards to the AF35, 1ST DOWN ARMY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
37.9%
Andy Davidson run for no gain to the AFA 35Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
37.9%
Andy Davidson run for 3 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+32
47.0%
Kell Walker run for 32 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10END OF HALF
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0058% → 59%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
42.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+1
40.7%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd to the AFA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 3:2358% → 73%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
41.9%
Arion Worthman run for 6 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+3
40.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+3
40.6%
Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
40.2%
Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+1
40.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the AFA 47Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+7
40.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 7 yds to the Army 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
27.3%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Jacobi Owens for 46 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 5:2429% → 45%
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
28.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 5 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+7
29.4%
Andy Davidson run for 7 yds to the Army 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
29.6%
Andy Davidson run for 3 yds to the Army 39Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+3
30.1%
Kell Walker run for 3 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q3 11:19
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+8
29.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
50
+4
31.2%
Andy Davidson run for 4 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+16
31.5%
Andy Davidson run for 16 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
32.8%
Kell Walker run for 1 yd to the AFA 29Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+15
32.8%
Jordan Asberry run for no gain to the AFA 29 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Haji Dunn Jr.) to the AFA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
44.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Edgar Poe for 14 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2164% → 82%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.4%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Jalen Robinette, broken up by Elijah RileySimilar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
36.6%
Timothy McVey run for 6 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
36.4%
Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+59
35.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 59 yds to the Army 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
31.8%
Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the Army 4Similar
Q3 3:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
18.3%
Timothy McVey run for 4 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
22.2%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the Army 18Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+2
22.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the Army 20Similar
Q3 3:24
3RD & 6
OWN 20
0
21.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Tyler Campbell, broken up by Jesse WashingtonSimilar
Q3 3:24
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
21.1%
J.D. Mote punt for 47 yds, downed at the AFA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:4082% → 84%
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
18.0%
Arion Worthman run for 8 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+5
16.9%
Timothy McVey run for 5 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
16.7%
Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
50
+4
14.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the Army 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 46
-2
14.8%
Arion Worthman run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 48Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
15.9%
Steve Brosy punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
18.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 4 yds to the Army 24Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+1
18.4%
Jordan Asberry run for 1 yd to the Army 25Similar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
17.5%
Kell Walker run for no gain to the Army 25Similar
Q4 13:38
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
17.2%
J.D. Mote punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 2:3489% → 97%
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+33
11.2%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Ryan Reffitt for 33 yds to the Army 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
10.6%
Timothy McVey run for 5 yds to the Army 17Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+4
10.6%
Timothy McVey run for 4 yds to the Army 13Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+2
10.9%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the Army 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
10.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 7 yds to the Army 4Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+4
2.6%
Arion Worthman run for 4 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 18INT
10 plays · 65 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
4.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Jeff Ejekam for 5 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+17
4.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the Army 32 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, personal foul (Haji Dunn Jr.) to the Army 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
5.1%
Bradshaw, Ahmad pass incomplete to Poe, Edgar (STEELHAMMER, We), PENALTY AF roughing passer 15 yards to the AF38, 1ST DOWN ARMY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
5.3%
Kell Walker run for 2 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+23
5.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 23 yds to the AFA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
5.9%
Andy Davidson run for 4 yds to the AFA 9Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 6
OPP 9
-1
5.9%
Tyler Campbell run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 10Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 7
OPP 10
0
5.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Edgar Poe, broken up by Jesse WashingtonSimilar
Q4 8:50
4TH & 7
OPP 10
0
5.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass intercepted, touchback. Roland Ladipo return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 18 yds · 2:3698% → 99%
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
2.0%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
1.9%
Timothy McVey run for 6 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q4 5:34
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+1
1.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
1.7%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+1
1.7%
D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd to the AFA 35Similar
Q4 5:29
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+3
1.7%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q4 3:18
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
1.0%
Steve Brosy punt for 56 yds, downed at the Army 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-5
0.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for a loss of 5 yards to the Army 1Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 15
OWN 1
0
0.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Edgar Poe, broken up by Roland LadipoSimilar
Q4 3:04
3RD & 15
OWN 1
+20
0.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Edgar Poe for 20 yds to the Army 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
0.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+5
0.9%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive offside (Santo Coppola) to the Army 26Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 5
OWN 26
0
0.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:04
3RD & 5
OWN 26
-2
0.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 24Similar
Q4 3:04
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
0.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Edgar PoeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
0.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 26Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 12
OPP 26
-1
0.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:34
Timothy McVey run for 4 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
-13.5
TD · Q3 11:31
Arion Worthman pass complete to Jacobi Owens for 46 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
-13.2
TD · Q3 5:55
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Edgar Poe for 14 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+11.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com