Try the model
UNT

North Texas 35 at Army 18

ARMY
2016 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2016 · Michie Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreUNT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:58 · Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Jeff Ejekam for 14 yds to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, UR (Nate Brooks) to the NoTex 39 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 149Pregame prior+5.2Home team on offense−35.0Score differential−17.5Garbage-time factor−14.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:38: Mason Fine pass complete to Terian Goree for 34 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +2.2 pts (now 13%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:28: Jeffrey Wilson run for 41 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +13.1 pts (now 44%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:33: Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +26.6 pts (now 76%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:14: Ahmad Bradshaw run for 6 yds for a TD, (A. Bradshaw Run For Two-point Conversion) — ARMY win probability +8.3 pts (now 43%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:58: Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +13.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 8 of 11UNT made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 12:58ARMY 4th & 2 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    86.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:28ARMY 4th & 7 at UNT 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    74.6%−3.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:21UNT 4th & 8 at UNT 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:43ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 37, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    78.2%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:43ARMY 4th & 5 at ARMY 44, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.8%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    78.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:10UNT 4th & 9 at ARMY 31, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.9%
    54% to make
    Punt
    24.0%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:46ARMY 4th & 15 at UNT 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    71.0%−0.9
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:45UNT 4th & 20 at UNT 10, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−3.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:37ARMY 4th & 21 at ARMY 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%−1.8
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:28ARMY 4th & 1 at midfield, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    53.5%−2.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:33ARMY 4th & 3 at UNT 41, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    28.7%−3.3
    32% to make
    Punt
    29.6%−2.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:33ARMY 4th & 6 at UNT 44, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    28.8%−2.4
    27% to make
    Punt
    31.0%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:54UNT 4th & 18 at ARMY 27, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%−4.6
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    55.9%−10.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:58ARMY 4th & 5 at ARMY 30, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:39UNT 4th & 3 at UNT 27, up 17
    Close callPunted · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:09UNT 4th & 2 at UNT 35, up 17
    Close callPunted · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.9%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:43ARMY 4th & 10 at ARMY 31, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 1 of 2UNT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 7:38ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:38UNT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:57UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:28UNT Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:33UNT Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:14ARMY Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    28.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    28.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:58UNT Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARMYDrive 1FUMBLE
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
90.4%
Jordan Asberry run for 3 yds to the Army 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
90.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 9 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
90.4%
Andy Davidson run for 4 yds to the Army 45 Andy Davidson fumbled, forced by T.J. Tauaalo, recovered by NoTex Brandon GarnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
90.0%
Mason Fine run for 1 yd to the Army 44Similar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+12
90.0%
Mason Fine pass intercepted Jeremy Timpf return for 12 yds to the Army 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 3TD
11 plays · 58 yds · 5:2090% → 90%
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
90.0%
Andy Davidson run for 3 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+2
90.0%
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds to the Army 47Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+3
89.9%
Andy Davidson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:58
4TH & 2
50
+2
89.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the NoTex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
90.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 6 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+8
90.0%
Andy Davidson run for 8 yds to the NoTex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
90.0%
Tyler Campbell run for 9 yds to the NoTex 25Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+4
90.0%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the NoTex 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
90.0%
Jordan Asberry run for 5 yds to the NoTex 16Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+7
90.0%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 7 yds to the NoTex 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
89.7%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 9 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 1:5911% → 13%
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
89.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Turner Smiley for 6 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 4
OWN 30
0
89.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Turner SmileySimilar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+22
89.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Terian Goree for 7 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST down ARMY Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Army 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
89.1%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+11
89.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Tyler Wilson for 11 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
89.1%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 3 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+34
86.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Terian Goree for 34 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 5INT TD
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:4188% → 86%
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
87.6%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+34
85.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass intercepted for a TD Eric Jenkins return for 34 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6FG
16 plays · 70 yds · 6:1585% → 84%
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
85.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 8 Ahmad Bradshaw fumbled, recovered by Army Ahmad Bradshaw , return for 2 yds to the Army 8Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+7
85.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 7 yds to the Army 15Similar
Q1 4:43
3RD & 3
OWN 15
+27
85.2%
Tyler Campbell run for 27 yds to the Army 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
85.8%
Andy Davidson run for 5 yds to the Army 47Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+7
85.9%
Kell Walker run for 7 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
86.0%
John Trainor run for 2 yds to the NoTex 44Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+5
86.0%
Campbell, Tyler rush for 3 yards to the NT41 (JENKINS, Eric), PENALTY NT offside 5 yards to the NT39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+3
86.0%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
86.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 6 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+2
86.2%
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+3
83.1%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the NoTex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
83.5%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 1 yd to the NoTex 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+2
83.5%
Tyler Campbell run for 2 yds to the NoTex 22Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 22
0
83.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Christian PoeSimilar
Q2 13:28
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+39
83.6%
Blake Wilson 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
83.1%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 4 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
82.9%
Mason Fine run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 27Similar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
83.4%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Turner SmileySimilar
Q2 13:21
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
83.8%
Eric Keena punt for 45 yds, downed at the Army 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8DOWNS
8 plays · 4 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
82.3%
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+5
82.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 5 yds to the Army 35Similar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+2
82.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the Army 37Similar
Q2 11:43
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+2
82.0%
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
82.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the Army 41Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+3
83.1%
Andy Davidson run for 3 yds to the Army 44Similar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
82.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete, broken up by Joshua WheelerSimilar
Q2 11:43
4TH & 5
OWN 44
+7
82.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 14 yards to the Army 32 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Army J.D. Mote , return for 7 yds to the Army 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9MISSED FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5223% → 22%
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
77.1%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Turner SmileySimilar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+1
77.2%
Willy Ivery run for 1 yd to the Army 31Similar
Q2 8:02
3RD & 9
OPP 31
0
77.8%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:10
4TH & 9
OPP 31
0
78.1%
Trevor Moore 48 yd FG MISSED , Xavier Moss return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 3:2478% → 76%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
78.4%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Army 24Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+13
78.6%
John Trainor run for 13 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
79.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Jeff EjekamSimilar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+22
78.8%
Jordan Asberry run for 7 yds to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Kishawn McClain) to the NoTex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
80.3%
Andy Davidson run for 3 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 7
OPP 38
-5
80.3%
ARMY Penalty, false start (John Trainor) to the NoTex 43Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 12
OPP 43
+5
79.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 5 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 7
OPP 38
-8
80.0%
Kell Walker run for 7 yds to the NoTex 31 ARMY Penalty, illegal block (Brett Toth) to the NoTex 46Similar
Q2 3:46
3RD & 15
OPP 46
0
76.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:46
4TH & 15
OPP 46
0
76.1%
J.D. Mote punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:4224% → 25%
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
76.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Willy Ivery for no gain to the NoTex 20Similar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-10
76.3%
Mason Fine sacked by James Nachtigal and Jeremy Timpf for a loss of 10 yards to the NoTex 10 NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 20
OWN 10
0
74.8%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Thaddeous ThompsonSimilar
Q2 2:45
4TH & 20
OWN 10
+1
75.4%
Eric Keena punt for 38 yds , Malik McGue returns for 1 yd to the NoTex 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 0:5377% → 74%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
77.1%
ARMY Penalty, false start (Mike Houghton) to the Army 48Similar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 15
OWN 48
-1
75.6%
Jordan Asberry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 47Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 16
OWN 47
0
75.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for no gain to the Army 47Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 16
OWN 47
-11
74.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw sacked by Dee Baulkman for a loss of 11 yards to the Army 42 Ahmad Bradshaw fumbled, recovered by Army , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 1:37
4TH & 21
OWN 42
+13
73.9%
J.D. Mote punt for 39 yds , Turner Smiley returns for 13 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · -23 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-15
72.6%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jeffrey Wilson NORTH TEXAS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (T.J. Henson) to the NoTex 17Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 25
OWN 17
-8
74.2%
Mason Fine run for 1 yd to the NoTex 18 NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offensive holding (-9 Yards) to the NoTex 9Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 33
OWN 9
+5
74.8%
ARMY Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the NoTex 14Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 28
OWN 14
-5
74.2%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 1:3029% → 44%
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+20
70.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Turner Smiley for 20 yds to the Army 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
69.2%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd to the Army 46Similar
Q3 14:58
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+5
69.3%
FINE, Mason pass incomplete to GOREE, Terian, PENALTY ARMY offside (Aukerman, Alex) 5 yards to the ARMY41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+41
56.2%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 41 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 15FUMBLE
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0058% → 59%
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
58.1%
Kell Walker run for 1 yd to the Army 26Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
58.0%
Andy Davidson run for 15 yds to the Army 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
59.7%
Kell Walker run for no gain to the Army 41Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+8
59.3%
Joe Walker run for 8 yds to the Army 49Similar
Q3 13:28
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+1
59.9%
Andy Davidson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:28
4TH & 1
50
0
59.0%
TEAM run for no gain to the 50 yard line TEAM fumbled, recovered by NoTex , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16TD
8 plays · 50 yds · 3:2648% → 76%
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
50
+17
51.9%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 17 yds to the Army 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
51.6%
Willy Ivery run for 12 yds to the Army 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-10
51.4%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Army 31Similar
Q3 10:59
1ST & 20
OPP 31
+4
51.6%
Mason Fine run for 4 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 16
OPP 27
0
51.9%
Jeffrey Wilson run for no gain to the Army 27Similar
Q3 10:59
3RD & 16
OPP 27
+26
52.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Willie Robinson for 26 yds to the Army 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
50.9%
Jeffrey Wilson run for no gain to the Army 1Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
24.3%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 17TD
14 plays · 70 yds · 6:1931% → 43%
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+22
30.9%
Kell Walker run for 22 yds to the NoTex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
33.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 1 yd to the NoTex 47Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+5
33.2%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 5 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q3 7:33
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+1
33.2%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 1 yd to the NoTex 41Similar
Q3 7:33
4TH & 3
OPP 41
-3
33.1%
Kell Walker run for 7 yds to the NoTex 34 ARMY Penalty, Offensive holding (John Trainor) to the NoTex 44Similar
Q3 7:33
4TH & 6
OPP 44
+11
32.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Edgar Poe for 11 yds to the NoTex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
34.2%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 5 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+6
34.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 6 yds to the NoTex 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
34.5%
Andy Davidson run for 5 yds to the NoTex 17Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 5
OPP 17
-1
34.5%
Jordan Asberry run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 18Similar
Q3 7:33
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+7
33.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 7 yds to the NoTex 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
34.5%
Andy Davidson run for 5 yds to the NoTex 6Similar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+6
42.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 6 yds for a TD, (A. Bradshaw Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 18MISSED FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 3:1463% → 65%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+25
37.3%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 25 yds to the Army 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
34.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Willie Robinson for 13 yds to the Army 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+16
33.7%
Willy Ivery run for 16 yds to the Army 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
31.8%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (Willy Ivery) to the Army 24Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 24
-3
32.0%
Anthony Wyche run for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 18
OPP 27
-6
32.3%
Mason Fine sacked by Alex Aukerman for a loss of 6 yards to the Army 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 24
OPP 33
+6
33.8%
Mason Fine run for 6 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q4 12:54
4TH & 18
OPP 27
0
35.2%
Trevor Moore 44 yd FG MISSED , Xavier Moss return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 19FUMBLE
7 plays · 68 yds · 0:0031% → 34%
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
30.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for a loss of 5 yards to the Army 15Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+9
30.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Edgar Poe for 9 yds to the Army 24Similar
Q4 12:54
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+5
29.4%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive offside (Joshua Wheeler) to the Army 29Similar
Q4 12:54
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+8
30.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 8 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
32.0%
Andy Davidson run for 3 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+9
32.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 9 yds to the Army 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+31
34.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Dalton Mendenhall for 31 yds Dalton Mendenhall fumbled, forced by Eric Jenkins, recovered by NoTex James GraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 20TD
7 plays · 88 yds · 3:3679% → 95%
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
21.5%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 14Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 8
OWN 14
0
21.9%
Andrew Tucker run for no gain to the NoTex 14Similar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+9
22.7%
Mason Fine run for 9 yds to the NoTex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+67
21.3%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 56 yds to the ARMY 21 for a 1ST down ARMY Penalty, personal foul (John Voit) to the Army 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
18.4%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 8 yds to the Army 2Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
18.4%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd to the Army 1Similar
Q4 5:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.9%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 21INT
6 plays · 36 yds · 0:006% → 7%
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Edgar Poe, broken up by Eric JenkinsSimilar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
5.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Christian Poe for 5 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
5.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Andy Davidson, broken up by William LeMastersSimilar
Q4 5:58
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+31
5.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Jeff Ejekam for 14 yds to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, UR (Nate Brooks) to the NoTex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
6.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass intercepted, touchback. Eric Jenkins return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:2396% → 97%
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
4.5%
Jeffrey Wilson run for no gain to the NoTex 20Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
4.3%
Willy Ivery run for 6 yds to the NoTex 26Similar
Q4 4:46
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+1
3.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Turner Smiley for 1 yd to the NoTex 27Similar
Q4 4:39
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+5
3.3%
Eric Keena punt for 32 yds , Malik McGue returns for 5 yds to the Army 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 23INT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
1.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 43Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 13
OWN 43
+6
1.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Christian Poe for 6 yds to the Army 49Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+10
1.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Jordan Asberry for 10 yds to the NoTex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
1.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Jordan AsberrySimilar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+12
1.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass intercepted James Gray return for 12 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-4
2.5%
Willy Ivery run for a loss of 4 yards to the NoTex 23Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 14
OWN 23
+9
2.7%
Andrew Tucker run for 9 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q4 3:09
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+3
2.6%
Andrew Tucker run for 3 yds to the NoTex 35Similar
Q4 3:09
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
2.5%
Eric Keena punt for 34 yds , Malik McGue returns for no gain to the Army 31 Malik McGue fumbled, recovered by Army Malik McGueSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 25INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
0.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Jeff EjekamSimilar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
0.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to John TrainorSimilar
Q4 0:43
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
0.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Edgar PoeSimilar
Q4 0:43
4TH & 10
OWN 31
+11
0.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 11 yds to the Army 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
0.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass intercepted Nate Brooks return for no gain to the NoTex 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
1.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:33
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)
-26.6
TD · Q4 5:58
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)
-13.5
TD · Q3 13:28
Jeffrey Wilson run for 41 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)
-13.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com