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LAF

Lafayette 7 at Army 62

ARMY
2016 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2016 · Michie Stadium
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Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadLAF aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreLAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:47 · Ryan Forrester punt for 29 yds, downed at the Army 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 62Pregame prior+38.9Home team on offense+20.0Score differential+17.9Blowout margin+5.3Garbage-time factor+2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:30: Jordan Asberry run for 20 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK) — ARMY win probability +0.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:18: Chris Carter run for 19 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK) — ARMY win probability +1.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:57: Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Jeff Ejekam for 7 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK) — ARMY win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 5:39: Chris Carter pass complete to Jordan Asberry for 59 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK) — ARMY win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:07: Cole Macek run for 4 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK) — ARMY win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1LAF made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00LAF 4th & 3 at ARMY 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    2.6%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:04LAF 4th & 19 at LAF 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:19LAF 4th & 6 at LAF 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:06LAF 4th & 8 at LAF 33, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:47LAF 4th & 22 at LAF 30, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:05LAF 4th & 5 at LAF 40, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:05ARMY 4th & 1 at midfield, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.6%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q4 15:00LAF 4th & 9 at ARMY 25, down 42
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q4 2:48LAF 4th & 1 at LAF 36, down 55
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 9 of 9LAF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:15ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:30ARMY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:18ARMY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:57ARMY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:39ARMY Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:56LAF Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:07ARMY Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:59ARMY Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:50ARMY Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:55ARMY Touchdown, up 54 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LAFDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.7%
Drew Reed pass complete to Matt Mrazek for 7 yds to the Lafay 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-1
97.7%
DeSean Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lafay 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+18
97.7%
Drew Reed pass complete to Matt Mrazek for 18 yds to the Lafay 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
97.7%
Drew Reed pass incomplete to Matt MrazekSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
97.7%
Drew Reed pass complete to Matt Mrazek for 7 yds to the Army 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 44
0
97.7%
Drew Reed pass complete to Joey Chenoweth for no gain to the Army 44Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
97.7%
Ryan Forrester punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2TD
4 plays · 88 yds · 1:4997% → 97%
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+11
97.3%
Tyler Campbell run for 11 yds to the Army 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
97.3%
Andy Davidson run for 11 yds to the Army 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
97.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 6 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+60
97.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 60 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
97.2%
Drew Reed pass complete to Matt Mrazek for 2 yds to the Lafay 24Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+6
97.2%
Drew Reed pass complete to Matt Mrazek for 6 yds to the Lafay 30Similar
Q1 10:04
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+5
97.2%
Drew Reed pass complete to Dylan Wadsworth for 5 yds to the Lafay 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
97.2%
Drew Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-11
97.2%
Drew Reed sacked by Kenneth Brinson for a loss of 11 yards to the Lafay 24Similar
Q1 10:04
3RD & 21
OWN 24
+2
97.2%
Drew Reed pass complete to Kyle Mayfield for 2 yds to the Lafay 26Similar
Q1 10:04
4TH & 19
OWN 26
+18
97.3%
Ryan Forrester punt for 42 yds , Malik McGue returns for 18 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4TD
9 plays · 50 yds · 4:1997% → 97%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
50
+1
97.0%
Cole Macek run for 1 yd to the Lafay 49Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 9
OPP 49
-5
97.0%
ARMY Penalty, false start (Brett Toth) to the Army 46Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 14
OWN 46
+2
96.9%
Cole Macek run for 12 yds to the ARMY 42 ARMY Penalty, Offensive holding (Christian Poe) to the Army 48Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 12
OWN 48
-7
96.9%
Joe Walker run for 8 yds to the ARMY 44 ARMY Penalty, illegal block (Bryce Holland) to the Army 41Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 19
OWN 41
+9
96.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Christian Poe for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 10
50
+15
96.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Christian Poe for 15 yds to the Lafay 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
97.0%
Cole Macek run for 5 yds to the Lafay 30Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+10
97.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 10 yds to the Lafay 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
97.1%
Jordan Asberry run for 20 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
96.8%
DeSean Brown run for 2 yds to the Lafay 24Similar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 8
OWN 24
-5
96.8%
Reed, Drew pass complete to Wadsworth, D. for 34 yards to the ARMY42 (Riley, Elijah), PENALTY LAFAYETT ineligible downfield on pass (Donnelly, Mike) 5 yards to the LAFAYETT19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 13
OWN 19
+7
96.8%
Drew Reed pass complete to Tim Vangelas for 7 yds to the Lafay 26Similar
Q1 2:19
3RD & 6
OWN 26
0
96.8%
Drew Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:19
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
96.9%
Ryan Forrester punt for 38 yds, downed at the Army 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 2:5397% → 98%
Q1 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
96.9%
Cole Macek run for 7 yds to the Army 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+5
97.0%
Cole Macek run for 5 yds to the Army 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+18
97.0%
Tyler Campbell run for 18 yds to the Lafay 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
97.0%
Chris Carter pass incomplete to Jordan AsberrySimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+9
97.0%
Jordan Asberry run for 9 yds to the Lafay 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+6
96.9%
Cole Macek run for 6 yds to the Lafay 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
98.1%
Chris Carter run for 19 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
97.9%
Kyle Mayfield run for 2 yds to the Lafay 33Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
97.9%
Drew Reed pass incomplete to Matt Mrazek, broken up by Jaylon McClintonSimilar
Q2 12:06
3RD & 8
OWN 33
0
97.9%
Drew Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:06
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
98.0%
Ryan Forrester punt for 46 yds, downed at the Army 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8TD
6 plays · 79 yds · 2:0298% → 99%
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
98.0%
Cole Macek run for 3 yds to the Army 24Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+19
98.0%
Jordan Asberry run for 19 yds to the Army 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+28
98.1%
Cole Macek run for 28 yds to the Lafay 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+22
98.4%
Tyler Campbell run for 22 yds to the Lafay 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Jeff Ejekam for 7 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
99.1%
DeSean Brown run for 3 yds to the Lafay 21Similar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 7
OWN 21
0
99.1%
Drew Reed pass incomplete to Matt Mrazek, broken up by Xavier MossSimilar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+21
99.1%
Drew Reed pass complete to Matt Mrazek for 21 yds to the Lafay 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
99.1%
Drew Reed pass complete to Matt Mrazek for no gain to the Lafay 42Similar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-7
99.1%
Drew Reed sacked by Andrew King for a loss of 7 yards to the Lafay 35Similar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 17
OWN 35
-5
99.2%
LAFAYETTE Penalty, false start (Mike Donnelly) to the Lafay 30Similar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 22
OWN 30
0
99.2%
Drew Reed pass incomplete to Yasir Thomas, broken up by Rhyan EnglandSimilar
Q2 8:47
4TH & 22
OWN 30
0
99.2%
Ryan Forrester punt for 29 yds, downed at the Army 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10TD
1 play · 59 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
99.4%
Chris Carter pass complete to Jordan Asberry for 59 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 11TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:431% → 1%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Drew Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+26
99.5%
Drew Reed pass complete to Dylan Wadsworth for 26 yds to the Army 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
99.5%
Drew Reed pass complete to Nick Franzese for 13 yds to the Army 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
99.5%
Kyle Mayfield run for 2 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+29
99.4%
Drew Reed pass complete to Nick Franzese for 29 yds to the Army 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.4%
Drew Reed pass incomplete to Matt MrazekSimilar
Q2 2:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.2%
Drew Reed run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jacob Bissell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12FUMBLE
7 plays · -14 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+30
99.4%
Chris Carter pass complete to Glen Coates for 15 yds to the Lafay 49 for a 1ST down LAFAYETTE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Rob Hinchen) to the Lafay 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
99.5%
Christian Drake run for a loss of 5 yards to the Lafay 41 Christian Drake fumbled, recovered by Army Christian DrakeSimilar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 15
OWN 0
-15
99.4%
PENALTY ARMY holding (Voit, John) 14 yards to the ARMY45, PENALTY ARMY UR 15 yards to the ARMY30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 44
OWN 30
0
99.4%
Chris Carter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:44
3RD & 44
OWN 30
0
99.4%
Chris Carter pass incomplete to Glen CoatesSimilar
Q2 2:44
4TH & 44
OWN 30
+9
99.4%
Nick Schrage run for a loss of 5 yards to the Army 11 Nick Schrage fumbled, forced by Dmitry Smith, recovered by Lafay Nick Franzese , return for 9 yds to the Army 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 13INT
3 plays · -15 yds · 0:171% → 1%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-15
99.4%
Reed, Drew pass complete to Mrazek, Matt for 8 yards to the ARMY3 (England, Rhyan), PENALTY LAFAYETT pass interference (Thomas, Yasir) 15 yards to the ARMY26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 25
OPP 26
0
99.5%
Drew Reed pass intercepted, touchback. Marcus Hyatt return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
99.6%
Cole Macek run for 9 yds to the Army 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 15TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:53100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.6%
Cole Macek run for 4 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
99.6%
Cole Macek run for 5 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
99.5%
Cole Macek run for 3 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
99.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 5 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+3
99.6%
Cole Macek run for 3 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+11
99.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 11 yds to the Lafay 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
99.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Christian Poe, broken up by Eric MitchellSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+17
99.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 17 yds to the Lafay 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
99.6%
Kevin Hicks run for 7 yds to the Lafay 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+8
99.6%
Cole Macek run for 8 yds to the Lafay 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
99.6%
Cole Macek run for 8 yds to the Lafay 4Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+4
99.8%
Cole Macek run for 4 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.8%
Kyle Mayfield run for 1 yd to the Lafay 36Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+4
99.8%
DeSean Brown run for 4 yds to the Lafay 40Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
99.7%
Drew Reed pass incomplete to Tim Vangelas, broken up by Scott WashleSimilar
Q3 9:05
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Ryan Forrester punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Army 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 17TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 4:06100% → 100%
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
99.8%
Chris Carter run for 7 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 3
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Chris Carter pass incomplete to Jeff EjekamSimilar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+12
99.8%
John Trainor run for 12 yds to the Army 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
99.8%
Chris Carter pass complete to Jermaine Adams for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 1
50
0
99.8%
Cole Macek run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 1
50
0
99.8%
Chris Carter pass incomplete to Jermaine AdamsSimilar
Q3 8:05
4TH & 1
50
+5
99.8%
Chris Carter run for 5 yds to the Lafay 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+25
99.8%
Chris Carter run for 25 yds to the Lafay 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
99.9%
Chris Carter pass complete to Joe Walker for 20 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 18DOWNS
12 plays · 49 yds · 3:480% → 0%
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
99.9%
DeSean Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lafay 24Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+15
99.9%
Drew Reed pass complete to Matt Mrazek for 15 yds to the Lafay 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
99.9%
Drew Reed pass complete to Nick Franzese for 9 yds to the Lafay 48Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+15
99.8%
Drew Reed pass complete to Yasir Thomas for 15 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
99.9%
Drew Reed pass complete to Angus Evans for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 38Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+9
99.9%
Drew Reed pass complete to Matt Mrazek for 9 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q3 3:48
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+3
99.8%
DeSean Brown run for 3 yds to the Army 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.9%
Drew Reed pass incomplete to Nick FranzeseSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+1
99.9%
DeSean Brown run for 1 yd to the Army 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 25
0
99.9%
Drew Reed pass incomplete to Matt MrazekSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 25
0
99.9%
Drew Reed pass incomplete to Yasir ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 19TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 6:12100% → 100%
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Malik McGue run for 1 yd to the Army 26Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
99.9%
Elijah St. Hilaire run for 11 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
99.9%
ARMY Penalty, false start (Colby Enegren) to the Army 32Similar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+9
99.9%
Kell Walker run for 9 yds to the Army 41Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+12
99.9%
Malik McGue run for 12 yds to the Lafay 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
99.9%
Malik McGue run for 13 yds to the Lafay 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
99.9%
Malik McGue run for 4 yds to the Lafay 30Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+5
99.9%
Kevin Hicks run for 5 yds to the Lafay 25Similar
Q4 14:02
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+18
99.9%
Malik McGue run for 18 yds to the Lafay 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
99.9%
Connor Slomka run for 2 yds to the Lafay 5Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
Kevin Hicks run for 5 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 20INT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
100.0%
Rajhan Meriwether run for 5 yds to the Lafay 18Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+2
100.0%
Rajhan Meriwether run for 2 yds to the Lafay 20Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+11
100.0%
Drew Reed pass complete to Tim Vangelas for 11 yds to the Lafay 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
100.0%
LAFAYETTE Penalty, false start (Kevin Zataveski) to the Lafay 26Similar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+4
100.0%
Drew Reed pass complete to Joey Chenoweth for 4 yds to the Lafay 30Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 11
OWN 30
0
100.0%
Drew Reed pass intercepted Jalen Sharp return for no gain to the Army 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 21TD
4 plays · 54 yds · 1:50100% → 100%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
100.0%
Malik McGue run for 3 yds to the Army 49Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+8
100.0%
Connor Slomka run for 8 yds to the Lafay 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
100.0%
Malik McGue run for 2 yds to the Lafay 41Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+41
100.0%
Malik McGue run for 41 yds for a TD, (Avery Walas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAFDrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
100.0%
Blake Searfoss pass complete to Joey Chenoweth for 7 yds to the Lafay 34Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+1
100.0%
Rajhan Meriwether run for 1 yd to the Lafay 35Similar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+1
100.0%
Blake Searfoss pass complete to Yasir Thomas for 1 yd to the Lafay 36Similar
Q4 2:48
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
100.0%
Rajhan Meriwether run for no gain to the Lafay 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
100.0%
Christian Drake run for 5 yds to the Lafay 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:18
Chris Carter run for 19 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)
+1.1
TD · Q2 8:57
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Jeff Ejekam for 7 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)
+0.7
TD · Q1 2:30
Jordan Asberry run for 20 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)
+0.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com