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ARMY

Army 20 at Buffalo 23

BUF
2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreARMY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDFGTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Tyler Campbell run for 23 yds to the Buff 7 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 41Pregame prior−32.6Home team on offense−3.9Score differential−1.2Garbage-time factor−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:48: Tyree Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson PAT MISSED) — BUF win probability +10.6 pts (now 29%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:25: Ahmad Bradshaw run for 5 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK) — ARMY win probability +9.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:25: Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 5 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +13.7 pts (now 26%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:26: Tyree Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +34.2 pts (now 61%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. FG · OT 0:00: Adam Mitcheson 33 yd FG GOOD — BUF win probability +21.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ARMY made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:20ARMY 4th & 4 at BUF 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    81.5%−0.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    81.5%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:13BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00ARMY 4th & 2 at BUF 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    80.3%−0.5
    56% to make
    Punt
    79.8%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:27ARMY 4th & 4 at BUF 4, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.6%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    76.8%−3.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:21BUF 4th & 23 at ARMY 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−0.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    18.0%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:33ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 46, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    80.4%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:53ARMY 4th & 5 at BUF 21, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.0%
    74% to make
    Punt
    61.5%−8.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:48BUF 4th & 6 at BUF 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−0.9
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:50ARMY 4th & 1 at BUF 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    77.1%−2.2
    60% to make
    Punt
    72.0%−7.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00BUF 4th & 3 at ARMY 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    11.2%−1.6
    28% to make
    Punt
    11.8%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:55ARMY 4th & 2 at BUF 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    89.2%−1.7
    45% to make
    Punt
    88.4%−2.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:30BUF 4th & 1 at ARMY 8, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    10.3%−1.9
    90% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−8.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:16ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 29, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.4 ptsPunted · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.0%−3.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:13BUF 4th & 9 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.6%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.0%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:19ARMY 4th & 4 at BUF 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    46.1%−7.4
    30% to make
    Punt
    46.4%−7.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ARMY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:34ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:48BUF Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    30.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:25ARMY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:25BUF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.2%−0.5
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:26BUF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.6%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
12.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 5 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
12.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
12.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Kamathi HolseySimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 43
+18
12.2%
Kyle Deween punt for 46 yds , Malik McGue returns for 18 yds to the Army 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 4:1587% → 87%
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
12.7%
Tyler Campbell run for 7 yds to the Army 36Similar
Q1 13:49
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+2
12.7%
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q1 13:49
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+3
12.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the Army 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+23
12.7%
Jordan Asberry run for 23 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
12.6%
Andy Davidson run for 4 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q1 13:49
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+14
12.6%
Tyler Campbell run for 14 yds to the Buff 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-2
12.6%
Jordan Asberry run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 20Similar
Q1 13:49
2ND & 12
OPP 20
+5
12.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 5 yds to the Buff 15Similar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+15
13.5%
Jordan Asberry run for 15 yds for a TD BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Blake Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3INT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
13.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Malcolm Robinson for 4 yds Malcolm Robinson fumbled, forced by Andrew King,Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+7
13.8%
Jordan Johnson run for 7 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
13.8%
Jordan Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 33Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+2
13.7%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Buff 35 BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 9
OWN 35
0
13.7%
Tyree Jackson pass intercepted Kenneth Brinson return for no gain to the Buff 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4DOWNS
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:0686% → 85%
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
13.8%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 5
OPP 38
-5
13.7%
ARMY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 43Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+6
13.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 6 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 4
OPP 37
0
13.8%
Darnell Woolfolk run for no gain to the Buff 37 Darnell Woolfolk fumbled, forced by Ishmael Hargrove,Similar
Q1 5:20
4TH & 4
OPP 37
0
14.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
14.9%
Tyree Jackson run for no gain to the Buff 38Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-2
14.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jamarl Eiland for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 36Similar
Q1 5:13
3RD & 12
OWN 36
+8
14.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 8 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q1 5:13
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
14.7%
Kyle Deween punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Malik McGue at the Army 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6FG
14 plays · 80 yds · 7:0885% → 84%
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
15.2%
Tyler Campbell run for 3 yds to the Army 19Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+6
15.3%
Andy Davidson run for 6 yds to the Army 25Similar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+2
15.1%
Chris Carter run for 2 yds to the Army 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
15.1%
Kell Walker run for 12 yds to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
14.8%
Kell Walker run for 10 yds to the Army 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
14.7%
Chris Carter run for 13 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
14.6%
Chris Carter run for 3 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+3
15.1%
Jordan Asberry run for 3 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+2
15.3%
Chris Carter run for 2 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+23
15.8%
Tyler Campbell run for 23 yds to the Buff 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
15.1%
Andy Davidson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 8Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
15.1%
Andy Davidson run for 3 yds to the Buff 5Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
15.3%
Elijah St. Hilaire run for 1 yd to the Buff 4Similar
Q2 11:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
16.0%
Blake Wilson 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7PUNT
14 plays · 40 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
15.4%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 1 yd to the Buff 22Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+21
15.3%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 21 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
15.9%
[SGUN], PENALTY UB false start (JOSEPH, Roubben) 5 yards to the UB38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+6
15.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jamarl Eiland for 6 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+2
15.9%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 2 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q2 11:21
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+10
15.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Johnathan Hawkins for 10 yds to the Army 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
16.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jamarl Eiland for 5 yds to the Army 39Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+13
16.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 13 yds to the Army 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-6
16.8%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 4 yds to the Army 22 BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Army 32Similar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 16
OPP 32
0
16.6%
Johnathan Hawkins run for no gain to the Army 32Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 16
OPP 32
-3
16.5%
Johnathan Hawkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 35Similar
Q2 11:21
3RD & 19
OPP 35
-4
15.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jordan Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the Army 39Similar
Q2 11:21
4TH & 23
OPP 39
0
15.3%
Kyle Deween punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Army 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8INT
12 plays · 50 yds · 4:2084% → 84%
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+23
16.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Christian Poe for 23 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
15.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+5
15.6%
Joe Walker run for 5 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+1
15.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 1 yd to the Army 46Similar
Q2 5:33
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+2
16.2%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the Army 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
15.5%
Joe Walker pass complete to Ahmad Bradshaw for 12 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
15.4%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 11 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
15.2%
ARMY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 34Similar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+4
15.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 4 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 11
OPP 30
-6
15.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw sacked by Khalil Hodge for a loss of 6 yards to the Buff 36Similar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 17
OPP 36
0
15.8%
Chris Carter pass intercepted Brandon Williams return for no gain to the Buff 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9END OF HALF
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+6
16.4%
Jordan Johnson run for 6 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 4
OWN 7
+3
16.4%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10FUMBLE
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
17.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 7 yds to the Army 15Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+9
16.9%
Andy Davidson run for 9 yds to the Army 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
16.8%
Jordan Asberry run for 1 yd to the Army 25Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
16.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for a loss of 4 yards to the Army 23 Ahmad Bradshaw fumbled, recovered by Buff Ishmael Hargrove , return for no gain to the Army 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11TD
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:1219% → 29%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
18.8%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 9 yds to the Army 14Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 1
OPP 14
-5
18.8%
Jordan Johnson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Army 19Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+12
17.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 12 yds to the Army 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
18.8%
Tyree Jackson run for 4 yds to the Army 3Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
18.8%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Army 1Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
29.4%
Tyree Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12FG
8 plays · 55 yds · 2:4575% → 81%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
25.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Andy DavidsonSimilar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+7
25.6%
Kell Walker run for 7 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q3 10:38
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+43
25.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 43 yds to the Buff 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-7
22.2%
Tyler Campbell run for a loss of 7 yards to the Buff 33Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 17
OPP 33
0
23.2%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Christian PoeSimilar
Q3 10:38
3RD & 17
OPP 33
+12
24.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 12 yds to the Buff 21Similar
Q3 7:53
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+38
19.1%
Blake Wilson 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
21.3%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 4 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 6
OWN 27
0
21.7%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Malcolm RobinsonSimilar
Q3 7:48
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
20.7%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Kamathi HolseySimilar
Q3 7:48
4TH & 6
OWN 27
0
19.8%
Kyle Deween punt for 35 yds, downed at the Army 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14TD
12 plays · 62 yds · 5:2582% → 92%
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
18.2%
Andy Davidson run for 7 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+2
18.1%
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds to the Army 47Similar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+4
18.2%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 4 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
17.7%
Andy Davidson run for 6 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+6
17.5%
Andy Davidson run for 6 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
17.7%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
17.2%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Christian PoeSimilar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+6
18.0%
Andy Davidson run for 6 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q3 6:50
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+19
18.8%
Kell Walker run for 19 yds to the Buff 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
17.2%
Davidson, Andy rush for 1 yard to the UB8 (FRANKLIN, Jarre), PENALTY ARMY illegal formation 5 yards to the UB14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+9
17.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 9 yds to the Buff 5Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
7.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 5 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15DOWNS
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:1811% → 11%
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
10.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Marcus McGill for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
50
+7
11.4%
Tyree Jackson run for 7 yds to the Army 43Similar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 3
OPP 43
0
11.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Malcolm RobinsonSimilar
Q3 1:18
3RD & 3
OPP 43
0
11.7%
Tyree Jackson run for no gain to the Army 43Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 43
-2
11.1%
Johnathan Hawkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
7.7%
Andy Davidson run for 4 yds to the Army 49Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+8
7.7%
Andy Davidson run for 8 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-15
7.6%
Bradshaw, Ahmad rush for 9 yards to the UB34 (LEWIS, Cameron), PENALTY ARMY personal foul (Enegren, Colby) 15 yards to the ARMY42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 25
OWN 42
+7
8.0%
Andy Davidson run for 7 yds to the Army 49Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 18
OWN 49
+8
7.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 8 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+8
7.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 8 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+1
8.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 1 yd to the Buff 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 3:0510% → 26%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+49
9.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Marcus McGill for 49 yds to the Army 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
12.0%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Kamathi HolseySimilar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+4
11.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jamarl Eiland for 4 yds to the Army 13Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+5
11.6%
Tyree Jackson run for 5 yds to the Army 8Similar
Q4 11:30
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+2
11.5%
Tyree Jackson run for 2 yds to the Army 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
12.0%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Army 4Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
12.0%
Jordan Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 5Similar
Q4 8:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
25.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 5 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
16.8%
Andy Davidson run for 5 yds to the Army 25Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
16.4%
Andy Davidson run for 3 yds to the Army 28Similar
Q4 8:16
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
16.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 1 yd to the Army 29Similar
Q4 8:16
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
17.7%
Nick Schrage punt for 33 yds, downed at the Buff 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19TD
15 plays · 62 yds · 3:4721% → 61%
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
20.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jordan Johnson for 4 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+4
22.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Johnathan Hawkins for 4 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+3
22.1%
Tyree Jackson run for 3 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
23.0%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 9
50
0
22.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Jamarl EilandSimilar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 9
50
0
20.7%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete, broken up by James NachtigalSimilar
Q4 6:13
4TH & 9
50
+10
19.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 10 yds to the Army 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
24.2%
[SGUN], JACKSON, Tyree pass incomplete to HOLSEY, Kamathi, PENALTY ARMY pass interference (Hyatt, Marcus) 15 yards to the ARMY25, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
26.4%
[SGUN], JOHNSON, Jordan rush for 5 yards to the ARMY20 (King, Andrew;Timpf, Jeremy), PENALTY UB holding (O'HENLY, Tyler) 10 yards to the ARMY35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 20
OPP 35
0
23.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Marcus McGillSimilar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 20
OPP 35
+8
23.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Malcolm Robinson for 8 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 12
OPP 27
+19
22.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 19 yds to the Army 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
26.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 4 yds to the Army 4Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
26.4%
Tyree Jackson run for 3 yds to the Army 1Similar
Q4 2:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
60.6%
Tyree Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 20MISSED FG
13 plays · 31 yds · 2:1658% → 62%
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
41.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 5 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+1
41.3%
Andy Davidson run for 1 yd to the Buff 42Similar
Q4 2:19
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
42.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Jeff EjekamSimilar
Q4 2:19
4TH & 4
OPP 42
+11
45.5%
Kell Walker run for 11 yds to the Buff 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
40.1%
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+5
40.0%
Tyler Campbell run for 5 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q4 1:02
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+5
42.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 5 yds to the Buff 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
40.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the Buff 17Similar
Q4 0:03
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+34
38.4%
Blake Wilson 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
58.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 22MISSED FG
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0060% → 46%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-15
40.5%
Bradshaw, Ahmad rush for 4 yards to the UB21 (LEWIS, Cameron), PENALTY ARMY personal foul (Enegren, Colby) 15 yards to the UB40, NO PLAY.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 25
OPP 40
+1
44.8%
Tyler Campbell run for 1 yd to the Buff 39Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 24
OPP 39
+11
46.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Jeff Ejekam for 11 yds to the Buff 28Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 13
OPP 28
+2
46.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Kell Walker for 2 yds to the Buff 26Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 11
OPP 26
+43
53.9%
Blake Wilson 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23FG
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0065% → 83%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
64.7%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Kamathi HolseySimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+12
64.5%
Tyree Jackson run for 12 yds to the Army 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
64.7%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Army 11Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 11
-4
64.7%
Tyree Jackson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Army 15Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 15
+33
82.7%
Adam Mitcheson 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:26
Tyree Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)
+34.2
FG · OT 0:00
Adam Mitcheson 33 yd FG GOOD
+21.3
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+17.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com