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ARMY

Army 66 at UTEP 14

UTEP
2016 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2016 · Sun Bowl
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Win probability · UTEP
modelUTEP aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playUTEP scoreARMY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 14:53 · Alan Luna punt for 44 yds , Edgar Poe returns for 7 yds to the Army 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 78Home team on offense−23.1Score differential−12.1Garbage-time factor−5.5Pregame prior−3.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:45: Darnell Woolfolk run for 9 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Howard KICK) — ARMY win probability +4.4 pts (now 62%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:42: Chris Carter run for 2 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Howard KICK) — ARMY win probability +12.7 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:09: Jordan Asberry run for 2 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Howard KICK) — ARMY win probability +5.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:36: Andy Davidson run for 33 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Howard KICK) — ARMY win probability +5.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:37: Aaron Jones run for 24 yds for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK) — UTEP win probability +6.4 pts (now 10%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTEP made the numbers' call on 4 of 6ARMY made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 7:10ARMY 4th & 4 at UTEP 10, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.9%−0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    54.6%−1.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:10UTEP 4th & 14 at UTEP 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−0.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:42UTEP 4th & 3 at UTEP 25, down 10
    Close callPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:42UTEP 4th & 21 at ARMY 49, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−1.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%
    average punt
  5. Q3 14:53UTEP 4th & 6 at UTEP 17, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−0.8
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%
    average punt
  6. Q4 15:00UTEP 4th & 2 at UTEP 32, down 38
    Close callPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q4 10:48ARMY 4th & 6 at UTEP 39, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q4 5:32UTEP 4th & 1 at ARMY 30, down 52
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTEP made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ARMY made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q2 13:45ARMY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:42ARMY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:09ARMY Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:36ARMY Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:37UTEP Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:34ARMY Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:36UTEP Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:43ARMY Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:48ARMY Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:38ARMY Touchdown, up 51 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARMYDrive 1FG
16 plays · 65 yds · 7:5058% → 57%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
42.3%
Glen Coates run for 5 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
42.3%
Andy Davidson run for 6 yds to the Army 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
42.3%
Andy Davidson run for 4 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+3
42.3%
Tyler Campbell run for 3 yds to the Army 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+6
42.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 6 yds to the Army 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
42.3%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the UTEP 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+4
42.3%
Jordan Asberry run for 4 yds to the UTEP 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+8
42.3%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 8 yds to the UTEP 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
42.3%
UTEP Penalty, offside defense (Dante Lovilette) to the UTEP 30Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 30
-4
42.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for a loss of 4 yards to the UTEP 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+18
42.3%
Jordan Asberry run for 18 yds to the UTEP 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
42.3%
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds to the UTEP 14Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+6
42.3%
Andy Davidson run for 6 yds to the UTEP 8Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 8
-2
42.3%
Darnell Woolfolk run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 10Similar
Q1 7:10
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+27
43.4%
Mitchell Howard 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 0:0044% → 43%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
43.6%
Aaron Jones run for 4 yds to the UTEP 29Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
43.7%
Zack Greenlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
43.4%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Tyler Batson for 7 yds to the UTEP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
43.9%
Aaron Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 35Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 11
OWN 35
-3
43.7%
Aaron Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the UTEP 32Similar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 14
OWN 32
0
43.2%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Eddie Sinegal, broken up by Marcus HyattSimilar
Q1 7:10
4TH & 14
OWN 32
0
43.1%
Alan Luna punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 3TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 5:3056% → 62%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
44.1%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Army 23Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+5
44.1%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the Army 28Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+4
44.1%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Army 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
43.8%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Army 35Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+2
43.7%
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds to the Army 37Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+5
43.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 5 yds to the Army 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
43.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+1
43.6%
Jordan Asberry run for 1 yd to the Army 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+14
43.4%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Jeff Ejekam for 14 yds to the UTEP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+33
42.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Tyler Campbell for 33 yds to the UTEP 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
42.0%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 1 yd to the UTEP 9Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
37.6%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 9 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:5738% → 36%
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
37.5%
Aaron Jones run for 4 yds to the UTEP 22Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+4
37.6%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Aaron Jones for 4 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
Q2 13:39
3RD & 2
OWN 26
-1
37.3%
Aaron Jones run for 9 yds to the UTEP 35 UTEP Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the UTEP 25Similar
Q2 11:42
3RD & 3
OWN 25
0
36.1%
Zack Greenlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:42
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
35.6%
Alan Luna punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 5TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 3:4664% → 76%
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
36.4%
Andy Davidson run for 8 yds to the Army 48Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+28
36.3%
Chris Carter pass complete to Kell Walker for 28 yds to the UTEP 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
36.1%
Andy Davidson run for 5 yds to the UTEP 19Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+6
36.1%
Andy Davidson run for 6 yds to the UTEP 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
36.1%
Chris Carter run for 5 yds to the UTEP 8Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+4
36.1%
Andy Davidson run for 4 yds to the UTEP 4Similar
Q2 11:28
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+2
36.5%
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds to the UTEP 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
23.8%
Chris Carter run for 2 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
28.0%
Kavika Johnson pass complete to Aaron Jones for 6 yds to the UTEP 31Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+31
28.4%
Kavika Johnson pass complete to Walter Dawn for 31 yds to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-15
29.5%
Kavika Johnson pass incomplete UTEP Penalty, intentional grounding (Kavika Johnson) to the UTEP 47Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 25
OWN 47
+4
28.8%
Kavika Johnson run for 4 yds to the Army 49Similar
Q2 7:42
3RD & 21
OPP 49
0
28.5%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Jaquan WhiteSimilar
Q2 7:42
4TH & 21
OPP 49
+4
28.4%
Alan Luna punt for 35 yds , Edgar Poe returns for 4 yds to the Army 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 7TD
14 plays · 82 yds · 5:2777% → 89%
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
23.2%
Jordan Asberry run for 2 yds to the Army 20Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+6
23.2%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 6 yds to the Army 26Similar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+5
23.4%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the Army 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
22.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 14 yds to the Army 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
22.2%
Andy Davidson run for 3 yds to the Army 48Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+13
22.3%
Jordan Asberry run for 13 yds to the UTEP 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
22.0%
Andy Davidson run for no gain to the UTEP 39Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+10
22.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 10 yds to the UTEP 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
21.7%
Elijah St. Hilaire run for 5 yds to the UTEP 24Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+17
21.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Christian Poe for 17 yds to the UTEP 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
17.2%
Andy Davidson run for 5 yds to the UTEP 2Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
10.7%
Jordan Asberry run for 2 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
14.6%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Warren Redix for 5 yds to the UTEP 18Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 5
OWN 18
-1
14.7%
Aaron Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 17 UTEP Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 6
OWN 17
0
14.6%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Tyler BatsonSimilar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 6
OWN 17
+7
14.5%
Alan Luna punt for 44 yds , Edgar Poe returns for 7 yds to the Army 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10TD
3 plays · 54 yds · 1:0289% → 94%
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
11.1%
Tyler Campbell run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 6
50
+17
11.0%
Bradshaw, Ahmad rush over right guard for 2 yards to the UTEP48 (MADUNEZIM,Brian), PENALTY UTEP face mask 17 yards to the UTEP33, 1ST DOWN ARMY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
5.6%
Andy Davidson run for 33 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 12TD
3 plays · 46 yds · 0:403% → 10%
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+22
3.4%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Cole Freytag for 22 yds to the Army 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
9.8%
Aaron Jones run for 24 yds for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 13TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:0395% → 98%
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
5.4%
Chris Carter run for 10 yds to the Army 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
5.4%
Andy Davidson run for 11 yds to the Army 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
5.2%
Chris Carter run for no gain to the Army 46Similar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+10
5.2%
Chris Carter run for 10 yds to the UTEP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
5.1%
ARMY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UTEP 49Similar
Q3 11:37
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+28
5.2%
Chris Carter run for 28 yds to the UTEP 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
5.0%
Chris Carter run for 3 yds to the UTEP 18Similar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 7
OPP 18
-5
5.0%
ARMY Penalty, false start (Colby Enegren) to the UTEP 23Similar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+3
5.1%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the UTEP 20Similar
Q3 11:37
3RD & 9
OPP 20
+19
5.2%
Chris Carter pass complete to Elijah St. Hilaire for 19 yds to the UTEP 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.6%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mitchell Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 14TD
12 plays · 82 yds · 2:582% → 3%
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-9
1.6%
UTEP Penalty, Offensive holding (Derron Gatewood) to the UTEP 9Similar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+18
1.5%
Aaron Jones run for 18 yds to the UTEP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
1.6%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Terry JunielSimilar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+54
1.5%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Tyler Batson for 54 yds to the Army 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
1.8%
Aaron Jones run for no gain to the Army 3Similar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 19
OWN 9
+11
1.5%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Darrin Laufasa for 11 yds to the UTEP 20Similar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+11
1.5%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Darrin Laufasa for 11 yds to the UTEP 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
1.5%
UTEP Penalty, Offensive holding (Derron Gatewood) to the UTEP 9Similar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
1.6%
Aaron Jones run for 18 yds to the UTEP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
2.2%
Aaron Jones run for 5 yds to the Army 3Similar
Q3 3:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
2.5%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Hayden Plinke for 3 yds for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 15TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:5196% → 99%
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
3.9%
UTEP Penalty, Defensive holding (Derron Gatewood) to the UTEP 9Similar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 1
OPP 9
-11
3.3%
Christian Drake pass complete to - 15 for a loss of 11 yards to the UTEP 20Similar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 12
OPP 20
-18
3.9%
Mike Reynolds run for a loss of 18 yards to the UTEP 38Similar
Q3 6:34
3RD & 30
OPP 38
0
4.2%
Christian Drake pass incomplete to Gibby GibsonSimilar
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
1.7%
Chris Carter run for 10 yds to the Army 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
1.6%
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds to the Army 37Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+26
1.6%
Chris Carter run for 26 yds to the UTEP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
1.5%
Elijah St. Hilaire run for 9 yds to the UTEP 28Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+7
1.3%
Andy Davidson run for 7 yds to the UTEP 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
1.5%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 13 yds to the UTEP 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
0.7%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 8 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 6:272% → 1%
Q3 6:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
2.1%
Aaron Jones run for 5 yds to the Army 3Similar
Q3 6:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
1.8%
Aaron Jones run for no gain to the Army 3Similar
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
0.6%
Aaron Jones run for 8 yds to the UTEP 32Similar
Q3 0:37
2ND & 2
OWN 32
0
0.6%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Cole Freytag, broken up by Jeremy TimpfSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 32
0
0.5%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Eddie SinegalSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 32
+8
0.5%
Alan Luna punt for 47 yds , Edgar Poe returns for 8 yds to the Army 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 17TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 3:5999% → 100%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
0.8%
Malik McGue run for 1 yd to the Army 30Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+3
0.8%
Cole Macek run for 3 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+24
0.8%
Malik McGue pass complete to Quinten Parker for 24 yds to the UTEP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
0.7%
Cole Macek run for 3 yds to the UTEP 40Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+2
0.7%
Christian Drake run for 2 yds to the UTEP 38Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 5
OPP 38
-1
0.7%
Malik McGue run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 39 Malik McGue fumbled, recovered by Army Malik McGueSimilar
Q4 10:48
4TH & 6
OPP 39
+39
0.4%
Malik McGue pass complete to Joe Walker for 39 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 18INT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
0.3%
Kavika Johnson pass complete to Eddie Sinegal for 7 yds to the UTEP 32Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
0.3%
Quadraiz Wadley run for 2 yds to the UTEP 34Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
0.3%
Kavika Johnson run for 1 yd to the UTEP 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
0.3%
Kavika Johnson pass incomplete to Eddie SinegalSimilar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+11
0.3%
Kavika Johnson pass intercepted Scott Washle return for 11 yds to the UTEP 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 19TD
7 plays · 32 yds · 3:28100% → 100%
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
0.3%
Kell Walker run for 11 yds to the UTEP 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
0.3%
Cole Macek run for 4 yds to the UTEP 17Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 6
OPP 17
0
0.3%
Cole Macek run for no gain to the UTEP 17Similar
Q4 9:06
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+8
0.3%
Malik McGue run for 8 yds to the UTEP 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
0.3%
Cole Macek run for 5 yds to the UTEP 4 for a 1ST down UTEP Penalty, face mask (2 yards) (Warren Redix) to the UTEP 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.2%
Elijah St. Hilaire run for 2 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 45 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.1%
Tyrone Nelson run for 3 yds to the UTEP 28Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
0.1%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Eddie Sinegal for 9 yds to the UTEP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+24
0.1%
Tyrone Nelson run for 24 yds to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
0.1%
Ryan Metz run for 2 yds to the Army 37Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
0.1%
Ryan Metz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+7
0.1%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Eddie Sinegal for 7 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q4 5:32
4TH & 1
OPP 30
0
0.1%
Tyrone Nelson run for no gain to the Army 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 21END OF GAME
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
0.2%
Scott Washle run for 8 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+6
0.2%
Cole Macek run for 6 yds to the Army 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
0.1%
Malik McGue run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 4
50
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:42
Chris Carter run for 2 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Howard KICK)
-12.7
TD · Q3 11:37
Aaron Jones run for 24 yds for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK)
+6.4
TD · Q2 0:09
Jordan Asberry run for 2 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Howard KICK)
-5.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com