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RICE

Rice 14 at Army 31

ARMY
2016 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2016 · Michie Stadium
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Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadRICE aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreRICE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:45 · Nick Schrage punt for 33 yds, downed at the Rice 4
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 152Pregame prior+1.6Home team on offense+31.0Score differential+14.3Garbage-time factor+13.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+16.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+6.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:43: Andy Davidson run for 13 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Howard KICK) — ARMY win probability +2.8 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:16: Andy Davidson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Howard KICK) — ARMY win probability +5.9 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:02: Austin Walter run for 37 yds for a TD, (Hayden Tobola KICK) — RICE win probability +10.9 pts (now 27%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:21: Andy Davidson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Howard KICK) — ARMY win probability +8.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:52: Elijah St. Hilaire run for 4 yds to the Army 26 — ARMY win probability +4.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 5 of 9RICE made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 10:54RICE 4th & 2 at ARMY 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    31.4%−0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:45ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    67.7%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00RICE 4th & 3 at RICE 42, down 7
    Close callPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:10ARMY 4th & 4 at RICE 46, up 7
    Close callPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    71.2%−1.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.9%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:16RICE 4th & 4 at RICE 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:56ARMY 4th & 19 at ARMY 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%−1.5
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:44RICE 4th & 15 at RICE 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00ARMY 4th & 4 at ARMY 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.7%−0.6
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:20RICE 4th & 6 at ARMY 42, down 14
    Close callPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    15.1%−1.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:12ARMY 4th & 14 at ARMY 11, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%−2.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00ARMY 4th & 19 at ARMY 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%−2.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:40RICE 4th & 18 at RICE 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−2.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:23ARMY 4th & 3 at RICE 6, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.0%−0.6
    91% to make
    Punt
    91.0%−4.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:23RICE 4th & 2 at RICE 33, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.6%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:23RICE 4th & 8 at RICE 41, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:45ARMY 4th & 6 at RICE 37, up 17
    Close callPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    97.7%−0.2
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:42RICE 4th & 9 at RICE 17, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:18ARMY 4th & 2 at ARMY 43, up 17
    Close callWent for it · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4RICE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 14:00RICE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:02ARMY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:43ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:16ARMY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:02RICE Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:21ARMY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
RICEDrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0025% → 26%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
74.6%
Darik Dillard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+12
74.6%
Darik Dillard run for 12 yds to the Rice 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
74.1%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Connor Cella for 64 yds for a TD, (Hayden Tobola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5074% → 74%
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
74.1%
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+32
74.1%
Joe Walker run for 32 yds to the Rice 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
74.2%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 13 yds to the Rice 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
74.2%
Andy Davidson run for 13 yds to the Rice 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
74.2%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 9 yds to the Rice 6Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+6
74.3%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 6 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 39 yds · 0:0026% → 27%
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
73.7%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Austin Walter for 11 yds to the Rice 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
73.6%
Austin Walter run for 1 yd to the Rice 37Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+19
73.6%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Darrion Pollard for 19 yds to the Army 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
73.3%
Austin Walter run for 3 yds to the Army 41Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
73.3%
Jowan Davis run for no gain to the Army 41Similar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+5
73.4%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Darik Dillard for 5 yds to the Army 36Similar
Q1 10:54
4TH & 2
OPP 36
0
73.5%
Jack Fox punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Army 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4TD
14 plays · 84 yds · 7:0273% → 77%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
72.9%
Tyler Campbell run for 17 yds to the Army 33 ARMY Penalty, Offensive holding (Brett Toth) to the Army 23Similar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 3
OWN 23
-1
73.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 22Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+1
73.0%
Andy Davidson run for 1 yd to the Army 23Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+2
72.7%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the Army 25Similar
Q1 7:45
4TH & 1
OWN 25
+3
72.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 3 yds to the Army 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
73.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 25Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 13
OWN 25
+15
72.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Edgar Poe for 15 yds to the Army 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
73.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 13 yds to the Rice 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
73.6%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 13
50
+2
73.2%
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds to the Rice 48Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+31
73.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Edgar Poe for 31 yds to the Rice 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
73.8%
Jordan Asberry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 18Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+5
73.7%
RICE Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Rice 13Similar
Q1 0:43
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+13
76.6%
Andy Davidson run for 13 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:4325% → 25%
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
75.2%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Nate German for 10 yds to the Rice 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
74.9%
Austin Walter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+6
75.2%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Parker Smith for 6 yds to the Rice 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+2
74.8%
Tyler Stehling run for 2 yds to the Rice 42 RICE Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
75.2%
Jack Fox punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
75.6%
ARMY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Army 15Similar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+17
75.5%
Chris Carter run for 17 yds to the Army 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
75.7%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Army 36Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+1
76.2%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 1 yd to the Army 37Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+11
75.6%
Chris Carter pass complete to Jeff Ejekam for 11 yds to the Army 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
76.5%
Chris Carter run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 8
50
+3
76.5%
Andy Davidson run for 3 yds to the Rice 47Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+1
76.2%
Andy Davidson run for 1 yd to the Rice 46Similar
Q2 14:10
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
75.6%
Nick Schrage punt for 41 yds, downed at the Rice 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 7FUMBLE
6 plays · 30 yds · 0:0024% → 26%
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
75.8%
Darik Dillard run for 3 yds to the Rice 8Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+2
76.0%
Darik Dillard run for 2 yds to the Rice 10Similar
Q2 9:41
3RD & 5
OWN 10
+21
76.4%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to James Mayden for 21 yds to the Rice 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
75.3%
Tyler Stehling pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+5
75.5%
ARMY Penalty, Defensive offside (Brandon Jackson) to the Rice 36Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 5
OWN 36
-8
74.5%
Tyler Stehling run for a loss of 8 yards to the Rice 35 Tyler Stehling fumbled, forced by James Nachtigal, recovered by Army Andrew KingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8TD
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:3078% → 84%
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
78.3%
Andy Davidson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 36Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+6
78.0%
Jordan Asberry run for 6 yds to the Rice 30Similar
Q2 7:46
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+5
77.7%
RICE Penalty, Defensive offside (Carl Thompson) to the Rice 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
78.3%
Andy Davidson run for 6 yds to the Rice 19Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+4
78.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 4 yds to the Rice 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
78.3%
Jordan Asberry run for 5 yds to the Rice 10Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+8
78.3%
Andy Davidson run for 8 yds to the Rice 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
84.2%
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.6%
Tyler Stehling run for 5 yds to the Rice 30Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
82.3%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Nate German for 1 yd to the Rice 31Similar
Q2 4:16
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
82.6%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Nate German, broken up by Brandon JacksonSimilar
Q2 4:16
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+9
82.9%
Jack Fox punt for 51 yds , Edgar Poe returns for 9 yds to the Army 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 1:0384% → 85%
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+21
84.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 21 yds to the Army 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-15
84.7%
Bradshaw, Ahmad rush for loss of 8 yards to the ARMY40 (WRIGHT, Brady), PENALTY ARMY illegal block (Holland, Bryce) 15 yards to the ARMY33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:59
1ST & 25
OWN 33
+5
84.0%
Jordan Asberry run for 5 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 20
OWN 38
-2
86.0%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 36Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 22
OWN 36
+3
85.7%
Andy Davidson run for 3 yds to the Army 39Similar
Q2 1:56
4TH & 19
OWN 39
0
85.1%
Nick Schrage punt for 18 yds, downed at the Rice 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
85.5%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Parker SmithSimilar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
85.7%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to James MaydenSimilar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 10
OWN 43
-5
86.0%
RICE Penalty, false start (Cory Klingler) to the Rice 38Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 15
OWN 38
0
86.3%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Parker SmithSimilar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 15
OWN 38
+3
86.5%
Jack Fox punt for 47 yds , Edgar Poe returns for 3 yds to the Army 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
86.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the Army 20Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+6
86.4%
Andy Davidson run for 6 yds to the Army 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
85.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Jordan Asberry, broken up by Alex LyonsSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+4
85.3%
Andy Davidson run for 4 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
84.9%
Nick Schrage punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:1415% → 16%
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
85.3%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Darrion Pollard for 5 yds to the Rice 34Similar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+20
84.9%
Darik Dillard run for 20 yds to the Army 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
84.0%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Temi AlakaSimilar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
84.4%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Lance Wright for 5 yds to the Army 41Similar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 5
OPP 41
-1
84.2%
Tyler Stehling run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 42Similar
Q3 11:20
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
84.1%
Tyler Stehling punt for 41 yds, downed at the Army 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
84.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 1 yd to the Army 2Similar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+4
84.6%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Army 6Similar
Q3 11:12
3RD & 5
OWN 6
+9
84.1%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass complete to Jeff Ejekam for 9 yds to the Army 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-6
85.2%
Ahmad Bradshaw sacked by Derek Brown and Graysen Schantz for a loss of 6 yards to the Army 9Similar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 16
OWN 9
+2
84.6%
Jordan Asberry run for 2 yds to the Army 11Similar
Q3 11:12
3RD & 14
OWN 11
0
84.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass incomplete to Jeff EjekamSimilar
Q3 11:12
4TH & 14
OWN 11
0
83.9%
Nick Schrage punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Army 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 16TD
1 play · 37 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
73.0%
Austin Walter run for 37 yds for a TD, (Hayden Tobola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 17TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:4180% → 90%
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
79.6%
Andy Davidson run for 3 yds to the Army 28Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+20
79.6%
Elijah St. Hilaire run for 20 yds to the Army 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
81.8%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 14 yds to the Rice 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+22
82.1%
Andy Davidson run for 22 yds to the Rice 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
82.3%
Andy Davidson run for 3 yds to the Rice 13Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 7
OPP 13
0
82.3%
Darnell Woolfolk run for no gain to the Rice 13Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+10
81.4%
Jordan Asberry run for 10 yds to the Rice 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
90.3%
Andy Davidson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 18INT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0014% → 15%
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
86.5%
Austin Walter run for 2 yds to the Rice 44Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+14
86.5%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Austin Walter for 14 yds to the Army 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
85.3%
Austin Walter run for 2 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
85.5%
Tyler Stehling pass intercepted Jeremy Timpf return for no gain to the Army 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 14 yds · 2:5290% → 93%
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
89.6%
Elijah St. Hilaire run for 4 yds to the Army 26Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+3
89.5%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q3 2:52
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+5
89.2%
Elijah St. Hilaire run for 5 yds to the Army 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
89.7%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 1 yd to the Army 35Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+2
89.6%
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds to the Army 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+8
93.4%
Tyler Campbell run for 8 yds to the Army 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
93.9%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 2 yds to the Army 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
93.8%
Andy Davidson run for no gain to the Army 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 47
-11
93.5%
Andy Davidson run for 4 yds to the ARMY 49 ARMY Penalty, UR (Jaxson Deaton) to the Army 36Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 19
OWN 36
0
92.6%
Nick Schrage punt for 45 yds, downed at the Rice 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
91.2%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to James Mayden for 6 yds to the Rice 25Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 4
OWN 25
-10
90.2%
WALTER, Austin rush for 1 yard to the RICE26 (Wright, Raymond), PENALTY RICE holding (MARTIN, Trey) 10 yards to the RICE15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 14
OWN 15
+16
91.3%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Temi Alaka for 16 yds to the Rice 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-8
90.3%
Tyler Stehling sacked by Andrew King for a loss of 8 yards to the Rice 23Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 18
OWN 23
0
91.3%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Parker Smith, broken up by Marcus HyattSimilar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 18
OWN 23
0
91.5%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Darrion PollardSimilar
Q4 12:40
4TH & 18
OWN 23
0
91.6%
Jack Fox punt blocked by Calen Holt blocked by Calen HoltSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 21FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5896% → 97%
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
95.5%
Andy Davidson run for 5 yds to the Rice 8Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 5
OPP 8
0
95.5%
Andy Davidson run for no gain to the Rice 6 Andy Davidson fumbled, recovered by Army Ahmad BradshawSimilar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 3
OPP 6
0
95.4%
Kell Walker run for no gain to the Rice 6Similar
Q4 8:23
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+23
96.9%
Mitchell Howard 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 16 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.3%
Darik Dillard run for 3 yds to the Rice 28Similar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
96.1%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Connor Cella for 5 yds to the Rice 33Similar
Q4 8:23
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
96.1%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Connor Cella, broken up by Xavier MossSimilar
Q4 8:23
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+6
96.2%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Temi Alaka for 6 yds to the Rice 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
96.0%
Tyler Stehling sacked by Kenneth Brinson for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 38 Tyler Stehling fumbled, recovered by Rice Cory Klingler , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+3
96.1%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Robby Wells III for 3 yds to the Rice 41Similar
Q4 8:23
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
96.1%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Nate GermanSimilar
Q4 8:23
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
96.3%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Nate GermanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4898% → 99%
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
98.0%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 1 yd to the Rice 40Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+2
97.9%
Darnell Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Rice 38Similar
Q4 5:33
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+1
97.8%
Jordan Asberry run for 1 yd to the Rice 37Similar
Q4 3:45
4TH & 6
OPP 37
0
99.1%
Nick Schrage punt for 33 yds, downed at the Rice 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:542% → 2%
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+12
98.0%
Darik Dillard run for 12 yds to the Rice 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
97.9%
Darik Dillard run for 1 yd to the Rice 17Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 9
OWN 17
0
97.9%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Lance Wright, broken up by Mike ReynoldsSimilar
Q4 3:36
3RD & 9
OWN 17
0
98.0%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Parker SmithSimilar
Q4 2:42
4TH & 9
OWN 17
0
98.1%
Jack Fox punt for 48 yds, downed at the Army 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 25END OF GAME
5 plays · 15 yds · 2:1299% → 99%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.4%
Chris Carter run for 4 yds to the Army 39Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
99.4%
PaulAndrew Rhoden run for 5 yds to the Army 44Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-1
99.4%
PaulAndrew Rhoden run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 43Similar
Q4 0:18
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+7
99.4%
Chris Carter run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:02
Austin Walter run for 37 yds for a TD, (Hayden Tobola KICK)
-10.9
TD · Q3 4:21
Andy Davidson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Howard KICK)
+8.9
TD · Q2 4:16
Andy Davidson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Howard KICK)
+5.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com