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Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreARMY score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:19 · Nick Schrage punt
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 9:00: Ahmad Bradshaw run for 10 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Howard KICK) — ARMY win probability +6.0 pts (now 18%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:18: Andy Davidson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Howard KICK) — ARMY win probability +13.5 pts (now 36%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
- FG · Q3 1:29: Austin Jones 27 yd FG GOOD — ARMY win probability +4.3 pts (now 32%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- TD · Q4 9:38: Tyler Campbell run for 12 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Howard KICK) — ARMY win probability +37.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 7:56: Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Temp 35 — ARMY win probability +9.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 6ARMY made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 3:31ARMY 4th & 15 at TEM 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.0% before the snapGo for it11.7%−0.315% to convertField goalTheir call12.0%80% to makePunt11.2%−0.8average punt
- Q2 8:52TEM 4th & 6 at ARMY 40, tiedClose callPunted · 84.6% before the snapGo for it84.6%40% to convertField goal84.3%−0.334% to makePuntTheir call84.4%−0.2average punt
- Q2 4:19ARMY 4th & 3 at ARMY 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 18.6% before the snapGo for it18.4%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.5%average punt
- Q2 2:51TEM 4th & 11 at ARMY 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.9% before the snapGo for it79.9%−0.725% to convertField goalTheir call80.6%68% to makePunt77.6%−2.9average punt
- Q2 2:51ARMY 4th & 8 at midfield, down 3Close callPunted · 17.1% before the snapGo for it16.8%34% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.7%−0.1average punt
- Q2 0:05TEM 4th & 8 at TEM 17, up 3Numbers favored punt by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 80.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call77.1%−1.032% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt78.1%average punt
- Q3 1:29TEM 4th & 10 at ARMY 10, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.3% before the snapGo for it55.4%−2.024% to convertField goalTheir call57.3%88% to makePunt45.8%−11.6average punt
- Q4 15:00ARMY 4th & 1 at TEM 25, up 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call41.0%71% to convertField goal36.3%−4.766% to makePunt22.4%−18.5average punt
- Q4 9:30TEM 4th & 13 at TEM 6, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.5% before the snapGo for it19.9%−3.918% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.8%average punt
- Q4 7:56ARMY 4th & 2 at TEM 30, up 8Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call81.1%57% to convertField goal78.3%−2.856% to makePunt75.5%−5.6average punt
- Q4 3:41ARMY 4th & 12 at TEM 30, up 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.6% before the snapGo for it86.8%−1.423% to convertField goalTheir call88.2%56% to makePunt85.9%−2.3average punt
- Q4 2:21TEM 4th & 10 at TEM 28, down 15Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.2%28% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt3.2%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ARMY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q2 14:32TEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.4%97% to makeGo for two88.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:00ARMY Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call15.3%97% to makeGo for two15.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:18ARMY Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call33.3%97% to makeGo for two33.2%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 9:38ARMY Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.7%97% to makeGo for two68.9%−0.845% to convert
- Q4 2:28ARMY Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.2%97% to makeGo for two96.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1INT11 plays · 47 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+7
91.8%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Marshall Ellick for 7 yds to the Temp 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
91.8%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Marshall Ellick for 7 yds to the Temp 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+10
91.8%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Keith Kirkwood for 10 yds to the Army 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 28
+26
91.8%
Phillip Walker pass intercepted Marcus Hyatt return for 26 yds to the Army 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2MISSED FG14 plays · 41 yds · 6:3410% → 12%
TEMDrive 3TD8 plays · 80 yds · 3:5988% → 90%
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
88.3%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Marshall Ellick for 16 yds to the Temp 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+6
88.6%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
50
+32
88.8%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Colin Thompson for 32 yds to the Army 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4TD14 plays · 75 yds · 5:3211% → 18%
TEMDrive 5PUNT8 plays · 38 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 8:52
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+20
85.3%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Adonis Jennings for 20 yds to the Army 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-7
85.9%
Phillip Walker sacked by Alex Aukerman for a loss of 7 yards to the Temp 49Similar
Q2 8:52
3RD & 17
OWN 49
+11
84.5%
Phillip Walker pass complete to David Hood for 11 yds to the Army 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0919% → 18%
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
81.4%
Chris Carter pass complete to Jordan Asberry for 4 yds to the Army 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 7FG4 plays · -1 yds · 0:4685% → 84%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q2 2:51
2ND & 16
OWN 42
0
83.3%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for a loss of 6 yards to the Army 35 Ahmad Bradshaw fumbled, forced by Avery Ellis, recovered by Army Ahmad Bradshaw , return for no gain to the Army 35Similar
Q2 2:51
4TH & 8
50
0
83.7%
Nick Schrage punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Sean Chandler at the Temp 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 9DOWNS6 plays · 2 yds · 1:0583% → 81%
Q2 1:10
2ND & 6
OWN 19
-1
83.2%
Phillip Walker sacked by Kenneth Brinson for a loss of 1 yard to the Temp 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10TD15 plays · 77 yds · 6:4218% → 36%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
80.1%
Carter, Chris pass incomplete to Poe, Edgar (FOSTER,Artrel), PENALTY TEM pass interference (FOSTER,Artrel) 15 yards to the TEM36, 1ST DOWN ARMY, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 11FG17 plays · 65 yds · 6:4969% → 68%
Q3 8:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
68.9%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Keith Kirkwood for 14 yds to the Temp 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 16
OWN 49
+18
69.8%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 18 yds to the Army 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+10
72.8%
WALKER,Phillip pass incomplete to KIRKWOOD,Keith, PENALTY ARMY holding (Hyatt, Marcus) 10 yards to the ARMY10, 1ST DOWN TEM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
72.7%
Phillip Walker pass incomplete to Romond Deloatch, broken up by Brandon JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12TD16 plays · 81 yds · 6:4535% → 79%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 13PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0029% → 26%
Q4 9:30
2ND & 6
OWN 13
-7
29.0%
Phillip Walker sacked by Alex Aukerman for a loss of 7 yards to the Temp 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14MISSED FG12 plays · 8 yds · 4:1583% → 90%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-6
16.5%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 4 yds to the Temp 24 ARMY Penalty, Offensive holding (Bryce Holland) to the Temp 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 15INT2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
ARMYDrive 16TD2 plays · 36 yds · 0:4394% → 98%
TEMDrive 17INT7 plays · 27 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
3.0%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Keith Kirkwood for 11 yds to the Temp 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
3.0%
Phillip Walker pass incomplete to Ventell Bryant, broken up by Xavier MossSimilar
Q4 2:21
4TH & 10
OWN 28
+16
2.9%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Marshall Ellick for 16 yds to the Temp 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
3.1%
Phillip Walker pass intercepted Mike Reynolds return for 3 yds to the Temp 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 18END OF GAME3 plays · -5 yds · 0:0099% → 98%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:38
Tyler Campbell run for 12 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Howard KICK)
-37.6
TD · Q3 8:18
Andy Davidson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Howard KICK)
-13.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 7:56
Darnell Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Temp 35
-9