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ISU

Iowa State 20 at TCU 41

TCU
2016 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2016 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadISU aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreISU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:44 · Adam Nunez punt for 44 yds, downed at the IowSt 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Pregame prior+20.6Home team on offense+23.7Score differential+17.1Garbage-time factor+8.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.5Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:18: Joel Lanning run for 8 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK) — ISU win probability +3.2 pts (now 13%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:22: Kenny Hill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Graf KICK) — TCU win probability +2.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:48: Derrick Green run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Graf KICK) — TCU win probability +4.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:55: Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 25 yds for a TD, (Ryan Graf KICK) — TCU win probability +4.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:08: Trevorris Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Graf KICK) — TCU win probability +1.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10ISU made the numbers' call on 12 of 14
  1. Q1 15:00ISU 4th & 4 at ISU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:48TCU 4th & 15 at ISU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    91.7%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:48ISU 4th & 7 at TCU 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    7.7%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    7.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:56TCU 4th & 7 at TCU 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:13ISU 4th & 6 at ISU 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:24ISU 4th & 14 at TCU 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    8.4%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:23TCU 4th & 8 at TCU 10, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:10TCU 4th & 1 at ISU 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    86.5%−0.6
    74% to make
    Punt
    84.8%−2.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:15ISU 4th & 12 at ISU 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:24TCU 4th & 1 at TCU 37, up 10
    Close callPunted · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.0%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:38ISU 4th & 14 at ISU 7, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:15ISU 4th & 12 at TCU 43, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.3%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    6.6%
    28% to make
    Punt
    6.2%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 15:00TCU 4th & 4 at ISU 31, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    93.3%−0.4
    54% to make
    Punt
    93.0%−0.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:51ISU 4th & 5 at TCU 8, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.3%
    90% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−1.5
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:44TCU 4th & 10 at TCU 12, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:57ISU 4th & 19 at ISU 35, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.7
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  17. Q3 5:52TCU 4th & 8 at ISU 48, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
  18. Q3 4:08ISU 4th & 15 at ISU 25, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 15:00ISU 4th & 4 at ISU 35, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  20. Q4 10:37TCU 4th & 11 at ISU 20, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  21. Q4 6:41ISU 4th & 1 at TCU 1, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    -0.0%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.5
    average punt
  22. Q4 6:41TCU 4th & 5 at TCU 30, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
  23. Q4 5:17ISU 4th & 2 at TCU 33, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−<0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.1
    average punt
  24. Q4 1:29ISU 4th & 7 at TCU 13, down 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ISU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 5:32TCU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:18ISU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:22TCU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:48TCU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:55TCU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:08TCU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:41ISU Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ISUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.8%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the IowSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
92.8%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Trever Ryen for 3 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
92.8%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Justin ChandlerSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+30
92.8%
Colin Downing punt for 35 yds, downed at the TCU 34 IOWA ST Penalty, illegal motion (-5 Yards) to the TCU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2FG
10 plays · 41 yds · 2:1893% → 92%
Q1 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
92.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Emanuel Porter for 10 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
92.6%
Kyle Hicks run for 9 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q1 14:06
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+17
92.6%
Kyle Hicks run for 17 yds to the IowSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
92.6%
Kyle Hicks run for 3 yds to the IowSt 22Similar
Q1 14:06
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+7
92.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 7 yds to the IowSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
92.6%
TCU Penalty, false start (Kyle Hicks) to the IowSt 20Similar
Q1 14:06
1ST & 15
OPP 20
0
92.6%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Emanuel Porter, broken up by Jarnor JonesSimilar
Q1 14:06
2ND & 15
OPP 20
0
92.6%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:06
3RD & 15
OPP 20
0
92.6%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Emanuel Porter, broken up by Jarnor JonesSimilar
Q1 11:48
4TH & 15
OPP 20
+37
92.1%
Ryan Graf 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 3DOWNS
11 plays · 41 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
92.1%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Mike Warren for 7 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+8
92.1%
Mike Warren run for 8 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
92.1%
Mike Warren run for 12 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
92.0%
Mike Warren run for 2 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+3
92.0%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q1 11:48
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+6
92.0%
Joel Lanning run for 6 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
92.0%
Joel Lanning run for 3 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
92.0%
David Montgomery run for no gain to the TCU 34Similar
Q1 11:48
3RD & 7
OPP 34
0
92.0%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Dondre DaleySimilar
Q1 11:48
4TH & 7
OPP 34
0
92.1%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Dondre DaleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
91.2%
Derrick Green run for 3 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
91.3%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
91.1%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Ty SlaninaSimilar
Q1 7:56
4TH & 7
OWN 37
+50
91.0%
Adam Nunez punt for 50 yds , Allen Lazard returns for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
91.1%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the IowSt 15Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+1
91.1%
Mike Warren run for 1 yd to the IowSt 16Similar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 6
OWN 16
0
91.2%
Jacob Park pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:13
4TH & 6
OWN 16
0
91.3%
Colin Downing punt for 48 yds, downed at the TCU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6TD
1 play · 64 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
91.7%
Kyle Hicks run for 64 yds for a TD, (Ryan Graf KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
91.2%
Mike Warren run for 2 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
91.1%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Dondre DaleySimilar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+12
91.3%
Jacob Park pass complete to Mike Warren for 12 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
91.1%
Jacob Park sacked by Mat Boesen for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 44Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 12
OPP 44
0
91.2%
David Montgomery run for no gain to the TCU 44Similar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 12
OPP 44
-2
91.3%
Jacob Park pass complete to Mitchell Harger for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 46Similar
Q1 5:24
4TH & 14
OPP 46
0
91.5%
Colin Downing punt for 38 yds, downed at the TCU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
91.0%
Kyle Hicks run for 2 yds to the TCU 10Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 8
OWN 10
-1
91.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Emanuel Porter for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 9Similar
Q1 2:23
3RD & 9
OWN 9
+6
90.8%
Kenny Hill run for 6 yds to the TCU 15Similar
Q1 2:23
4TH & 3
OWN 15
-5
90.7%
TCU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 10Similar
Q1 2:23
4TH & 8
OWN 10
-3
90.7%
Adam Nunez punt for 41 yds , Allen Lazard returns for a loss of 3 yards to the IowSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 9TD
8 plays · 54 yds · 3:0210% → 13%
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
90.4%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Mitchell Harger for 9 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+1
90.1%
Mike Warren run for 1 yd to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
90.2%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Justin Chandler for 6 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+1
90.1%
Mike Warren run for 1 yd to the TCU 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+18
90.2%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Dondre Daley for 18 yds to the TCU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
89.9%
Joel Lanning run for 9 yds to the TCU 10Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+2
89.9%
Joel Lanning run for 2 yds to the TCU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
86.7%
Joel Lanning run for 8 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10TD
14 plays · 71 yds · 4:4788% → 91%
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
87.8%
Kyle Hicks run for 4 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+2
87.8%
Kyle Hicks run for 2 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q2 12:09
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+35
87.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 35 yds to the IowSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
88.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 9 yds to the IowSt 21Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 1
OPP 21
-15
88.7%
Hill, Kenny pass complete to Porter, Emanuel for 6 yards to the ISU15 (Wiltz, Jomal), PENALTY TCU personal foul (Collins, A.) 15 yards to the ISU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 16
OPP 36
+1
88.1%
Kyle Hicks run for 1 yd to the IowSt 35Similar
Q2 12:09
3RD & 15
OPP 35
+14
87.8%
Kenny Hill run for 14 yds to the IowSt 21Similar
Q2 9:10
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+1
87.6%
Kyle Hicks run for 1 yd to the IowSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
88.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 6 yds to the IowSt 14 for a 1ST down IOWA ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jomal Wiltz) to the IowSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
88.4%
Kyle Hicks run for 4 yds to the IowSt 3Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
88.4%
Kyle Hicks run for 2 yds to the IowSt 1Similar
Q2 7:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.9%
Kenny Hill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Graf KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
90.4%
Mike Warren run for 4 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 6
OWN 27
-5
90.2%
IOWA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the IowSt 22Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 11
OWN 22
0
90.4%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Trever RyenSimilar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 11
OWN 22
-1
90.7%
Joel Lanning sacked by Tipa Galeai for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 21Similar
Q2 7:15
4TH & 12
OWN 21
0
90.9%
Colin Downing punt for 51 yds, downed at the TCU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
90.4%
Derrick Green run for 7 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+1
90.5%
Derrick Green run for 1 yd to the TCU 36Similar
Q2 5:24
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+1
90.4%
Derrick Green run for 1 yd to the TCU 37Similar
Q2 5:24
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
90.0%
Adam Nunez punt for 52 yds, downed at the IowSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:1010% → 9%
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-2
90.2%
Jacob Park pass complete to Dondre Daley for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 9Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 12
OWN 9
-5
90.6%
Park, Jacob pass complete to Lazard, Allen for 30 yards to the ISU39 (Gladney, Jeff), PENALTY ISU pass interference (Lazard, Allen) 5 yards to the ISU4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 17
OWN 4
0
90.6%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Mike WarrenSimilar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 17
OWN 4
+3
90.8%
Mitchell Harger run for 3 yds to the IowSt 7Similar
Q2 2:38
4TH & 14
OWN 7
0
90.9%
Colin Downing punt for 48 yds, downed at the TCU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 1:3990% → 95%
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
90.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for a loss of 5 yards to the TCU 40Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+6
89.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 6 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q2 2:27
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+14
89.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 14 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+39
90.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Emanuel Porter for 39 yds to the IowSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.1%
Derrick Green run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Graf KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 15DOWNS
8 plays · 39 yds · 0:277% → 4%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+32
93.5%
Jacob Park pass complete to Trever Ryen for 32 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-7
92.5%
Jacob Park sacked by Mat Boesen and L.J. Collier for a loss of 7 yards to the TCU 48Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 17
OPP 48
+5
93.5%
Jacob Park run for 5 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 12
OPP 43
0
95.3%
Jacob Park pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 12
OPP 43
+9
95.6%
Jacob Park pass complete to Trever Ryen for 9 yds to the TCU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:0594% → 98%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 2 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
93.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 8 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
93.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 9 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+19
94.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 19 yds to the IowSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
94.2%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Taj WilliamsSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+1
94.1%
Derrick Green run for 1 yd to the IowSt 36Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+5
93.9%
Kenny Hill run for 5 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+6
93.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 6 yds to the IowSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
97.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 25 yds for a TD, (Ryan Graf KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 17FG
12 plays · 54 yds · 3:563% → 3%
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
97.1%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Trever Ryen, broken up by Niko SmallSimilar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
97.1%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Mike Warren for 5 yds to the IowSt 43Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+8
97.1%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Allen Lazard for 8 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
97.1%
Mike Warren run for 5 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+4
96.9%
Mike Warren run for 4 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+7
97.0%
Joel Lanning run for 7 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+20
96.8%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Justin Chandler for 20 yds to the TCU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
96.7%
Joel Lanning run for 1 yd to the TCU 12Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+4
96.7%
Joel Lanning run for 4 yds to the TCU 8Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
96.9%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Trever RyenSimilar
Q3 7:51
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+25
97.3%
Cole Netten 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
97.6%
Derrick Green run for no gain to the TCU 12Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
97.6%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Taj Williams, broken up by Jomal WiltzSimilar
Q3 7:44
3RD & 10
OWN 12
0
97.6%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Taj WilliamsSimilar
Q3 7:44
4TH & 10
OWN 12
0
97.5%
Adam Nunez punt for 44 yds, downed at the IowSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:003% → 2%
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
97.4%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Mike Warren, broken up by Tipa GaleaiSimilar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
97.4%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Trever Ryen, broken up by Niko SmallSimilar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 10
OWN 44
-9
97.5%
Joel Lanning sacked by Aaron Curry for a loss of 9 yards to the IowSt 35Similar
Q3 6:57
4TH & 19
OWN 35
0
97.6%
Colin Downing punt for 41 yds, downed at the TCU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
97.9%
Trevorris Johnson run for 14 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
98.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 7 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 3
OWN 45
0
98.0%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Emanuel PorterSimilar
Q3 5:52
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+5
98.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Daniel Walsh for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
50
+2
98.0%
Kenny Hill run for 2 yds to the IowSt 48Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
98.0%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:52
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
98.0%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to John DiarseSimilar
Q3 5:52
4TH & 8
OPP 48
+3
97.8%
Adam Nunez punt for 36 yds , Allen Lazard returns for 3 yds to the IowSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
98.0%
Jacob Park pass complete to Trever Ryen for 7 yds to the IowSt 22Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+8
97.9%
Mike Warren run for 8 yds to the IowSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
97.9%
Jacob Park run for 7 yds to the IowSt 37Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 3
OWN 37
-7
97.9%
Jacob Park sacked by L.J. Collier for a loss of 7 yards to the IowSt 30Similar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
98.0%
Jacob Park pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:08
4TH & 10
OWN 30
-5
98.0%
IOWA ST Penalty, false start (Nigel Tribune) to the IowSt 25Similar
Q3 4:08
4TH & 15
OWN 25
+34
98.1%
Colin Downing punt for 49 yds IOWA ST Penalty, kick catching interference (De'Monte Ruth) to the TCU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22TD
5 plays · 59 yds · 0:5899% → 100%
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+18
98.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 18 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
98.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 8 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+29
98.5%
Trevorris Johnson run for 29 yds to the IowSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
98.5%
Hill, Kenny pass incomplete to Porter, Emanuel, PENALTY ISU pass interference (Peavy, Brian) 2 yards to the ISU2, 1ST DOWN TCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.8%
Trevorris Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Graf KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:010% → 0%
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+14
99.8%
Mike Warren run for 14 yds to the IowSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
99.8%
Mike Warren run for 8 yds to the IowSt 37Similar
Q3 1:01
2ND & 2
OWN 37
-2
99.8%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Trever Ryen for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 35
0
99.8%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Allen Lazard, broken up by Denzel JohnsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 35
+2
99.8%
Colin Downing punt for 41 yds , Desmon White returns for 2 yds to the TCU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24FG
12 plays · 54 yds · 4:06100% → 100%
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
99.8%
Derrick Green run for 2 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+6
99.8%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 6 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q4 14:43
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+3
99.8%
Derrick Green run for 3 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
99.8%
Foster Sawyer run for 10 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
99.8%
Derrick Green run for 7 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+16
99.8%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Cole Hunt for 16 yds to the IowSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
99.8%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Daniel Walsh for 11 yds to the IowSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
99.9%
Connor Osborne run for a loss of 5 yards to the IowSt 24Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 15
OPP 24
+4
99.9%
Foster Sawyer run for 4 yds to the IowSt 20Similar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 11
OPP 20
0
99.9%
Foster Sawyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:37
4TH & 11
OPP 20
+37
99.9%
Brandon Hatfield 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 25TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 3:560% → 1%
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Mike Warren run for no gain to the IowSt 33Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+9
99.9%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Trever Ryen for 9 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q4 10:37
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+2
99.9%
Mike Warren run for 2 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
99.9%
Mike Warren run for 5 yds to the IowSt 49Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+3
99.9%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 3 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q4 10:37
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+41
99.9%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 41 yds to the TCU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
99.9%
Mike Warren run for 6 yds to the TCU 1Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
Mike Warren run for no gain to the TCU 1Similar
Q4 10:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
Mike Warren run for no gain to the TCU 1Similar
Q4 6:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.4%
Joel Lanning run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.4%
Sewo Olonilua run for 3 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
99.4%
Trevorris Johnson run for 2 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q4 6:41
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.5%
Foster Sawyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:41
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+47
99.4%
Adam Nunez punt for 47 yds , Allen Lazard returns for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 27FG
12 plays · 65 yds · 3:481% → 1%
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
99.5%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the IowSt 25Similar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Jacob Park pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:17
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+34
99.5%
Jacob Park pass complete to Darius Lee-Campbell for 34 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
99.4%
Mitchell Harger run for 2 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
99.4%
Jacob Park pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q4 5:17
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+6
99.5%
Jacob Park run for 6 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q4 5:17
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+2
99.4%
Kene Nwangwu run for 2 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
99.4%
Park, Jacob pass incomplete to Lazard, Allen, PENALTY TCU pass interference (Texada, R.) 15 yards to the TCU16, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
99.3%
Kene Nwangwu run for 3 yds to the TCU 13Similar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 7
OPP 13
0
99.3%
Kene Nwangwu run for no gain to the TCU 13Similar
Q4 5:17
3RD & 7
OPP 13
0
99.4%
Jacob Park pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:29
4TH & 7
OPP 13
+30
99.5%
Cole Netten 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 28END OF GAME
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.6%
Preston Miller run for 2 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-3
99.7%
Preston Miller run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:48
Derrick Green run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Graf KICK)
+4.6
TD · Q3 11:55
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 25 yds for a TD, (Ryan Graf KICK)
+4.1
TD · Q2 12:18
Joel Lanning run for 8 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)
-3.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com