Try the model
UNI

Northern Iowa 25 at Iowa State 20

ISU
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2016 · Jack Trice Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadUNI aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreUNI score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDSAFETYTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:06 · Colin Downing punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Daurice Fountain at the NIowa 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 15Pregame prior+28.0Home team on offense+0.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:14: Aaron Bailey pass complete to Tyvis Smith for 10 yds for a TD, (Austin Errthum KICK) — UNI win probability +6.4 pts (now 29%) (top driver: UNI has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:00: Aaron Bailey run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Errthum KICK) — UNI win probability +13.7 pts (now 43%) (top driver: UNI has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 4:20: Austin Errthum 22 yd FG GOOD — UNI win probability +6.6 pts (now 56%) (top driver: UNI has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:02: Joel Lanning pass complete to Allen Lazard for 33 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK) — ISU win probability +30.8 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:49: J'Veyon Browning run for 1 yd for a TD IOWA ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — UNI win probability +41.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UNI has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7UNI made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00UNI 4th & 8 at UNI 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:06ISU 4th & 2 at ISU 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:57UNI 4th & 2 at UNI 19, tied
    Close callPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:18UNI 4th & 1 at ISU 19, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.3%−0.5
    77% to make
    Punt
    20.8%−2.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:18ISU 4th & 8 at ISU 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.5%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:45UNI 4th & 2 at UNI 35, down 7
    Close callPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00ISU 4th & 2 at UNI 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.6%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:28UNI 4th & 9 at UNI 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:26ISU 4th & 16 at ISU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%−1.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:13UNI 4th & 8 at UNI 30, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:16UNI 4th & 2 at ISU 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    28.2%−0.7
    47% to make
    Punt
    27.3%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 14:55ISU 4th & 6 at UNI 35, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    64.5%−0.8
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.7%−1.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:57UNI 4th & 7 at UNI 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%−1.9
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:48ISU 4th & 11 at UNI 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    59.5%−0.3
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:20UNI 4th & 5 at ISU 5, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.8%
    92% to make
    Punt
    33.6%−13.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:15ISU 4th & 8 at ISU 36, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−1.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:41UNI 4th & 5 at ISU 30, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.3%−0.5
    56% to make
    Punt
    66.1%−2.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:02UNI 4th & 8 at UNI 42, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−1.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:26UNI 4th & 6 at UNI 47, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UNI made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:16ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:14UNI Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:20ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    77.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:00UNI Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:02ISU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.6%−1.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:49UNI Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    73.6%−2.4
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    76.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNIDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.3%
Tyvis Smith run for no gain to the NIowa 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
79.3%
Tyvis Smith run for 3 yds to the NIowa 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
79.3%
Aaron Bailey pass complete to Daurice Fountain for 9 yds to the NIowa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-15
79.3%
Bailey, Aaron pass incomplete to Fountain, D., QB hurry by Edwards, Evrett, PENALTY UNI personal foul (Carhart, Lee) 15 yards to the UNI22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 25
OWN 22
+6
79.3%
Tyvis Smith run for 6 yds to the NIowa 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 28
+11
79.3%
Aaron Bailey pass complete to Tyvis Smith for 11 yds to the NIowa 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
79.3%
Aaron Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
79.3%
Sam Kuhter punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 29 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
78.6%
Joel Lanning run for 3 yds to the IowSt 14Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+18
78.6%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Trever Ryen for 18 yds to the IowSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
78.6%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Trever Ryen for 2 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
78.6%
Joel Lanning pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+6
78.5%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Allen Lazard for 6 yds to the IowSt 40Similar
Q1 12:06
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
78.6%
Colin Downing punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Daurice Fountain at the NIowa 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-2
78.0%
Michael Malloy run for a loss of 2 yards to the NIowa 9Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 12
OWN 9
+2
78.0%
Aaron Bailey run for 2 yds to the NIowa 11Similar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 10
OWN 11
+8
78.1%
Aaron Bailey pass complete to Daurice Fountain for 8 yds to the NIowa 19Similar
Q1 9:57
4TH & 2
OWN 19
+26
78.2%
Sam Kuhter punt for 51 yds , Trever Ryen returns for 26 yds to the NIowa 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4TD
2 plays · 44 yds · 0:5178% → 80%
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
78.0%
Mike Warren run for 5 yds to the NIowa 39Similar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+39
79.8%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Dondre Daley for 39 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 5MISSED FG
10 plays · 56 yds · 3:5821% → 21%
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
79.2%
Tyvis Smith run for 3 yds to the NIowa 28Similar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
79.2%
Aaron Bailey pass complete to Tyvis Smith for 10 yds Tyvis Smith fumbled, forced by Willie Harvey, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+16
79.0%
Aaron Bailey run for 16 yds to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
78.7%
Michael Malloy run for 8 yds to the IowSt 38Similar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+10
78.6%
Aaron Bailey run for 10 yds to the IowSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
78.4%
Aaron Bailey run for 3 yds to the IowSt 25Similar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 7
OPP 25
-2
78.4%
Aaron Bailey pass complete to Michael Malloy for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 27Similar
Q1 7:16
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+8
78.7%
Aaron Bailey pass complete to Michael Malloy for 8 yds to the IowSt 19Similar
Q1 3:18
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+36
78.6%
Austin Errthum 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
79.3%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the IowSt 23Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-1
79.3%
Mike Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 22Similar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
79.0%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q1 3:18
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
78.6%
Colin Downing punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Daurice Fountain at the NIowa 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
78.7%
Aaron Bailey pass complete to Jaylin James for 7 yds to the NIowa 34Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 3
OWN 34
0
78.2%
Aaron Bailey pass incomplete to Michael MalloySimilar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+1
78.7%
Aaron Bailey run for 1 yd to the NIowa 35Similar
Q1 1:45
4TH & 2
OWN 35
+11
79.0%
Sam Kuhter punt for 42 yds , Trever Ryen returns for 11 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:1679% → 79%
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
79.2%
David Montgomery run for 10 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
79.8%
Joel Lanning run for 3 yds to the IowSt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-15
79.8%
Lanning, Joel rush for 12 yards to the UNI41 (Campbell, E.), PENALTY ISU personal foul (Montgomery, David) 15 yards to the ISU32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 22
OWN 32
+3
79.0%
Joel Lanning pass complete to David Montgomery for 3 yds to the IowSt 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 35
+17
78.6%
Joel Lanning pass complete to David Montgomery for 17 yds to the NIowa 48Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
79.1%
Colin Downing punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NIowa 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:1022% → 20%
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
78.3%
Aaron Bailey run for 13 yds to the NIowa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
77.6%
Tyvis Smith run for 3 yds to the NIowa 49Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 7
OWN 49
-2
78.0%
Tyvis Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the NIowa 47Similar
Q2 11:28
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
78.9%
Aaron Bailey pass incomplete to Michael MalloySimilar
Q2 11:28
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
79.6%
Sam Kuhter punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Trever Ryen at the IowSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10FUMBLE
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
79.5%
Joel Lanning run for no gain to the IowSt 16 Joel Lanning fumbled, recovered by NIowa D'Shawn DexterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 11TD
3 plays · 16 yds · 1:1623% → 29%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
77.2%
Tyvis Smith run for 3 yds to the IowSt 13Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+3
77.2%
Aaron Bailey run for 3 yds to the IowSt 10Similar
Q2 9:14
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+10
70.8%
Aaron Bailey pass complete to Tyvis Smith for 10 yds for a TD, (Austin Errthum KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 6 yds · 0:4874% → 72%
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
74.4%
NORTHERN IOWA Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the IowSt 30Similar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
74.6%
Mike Warren run for 12 yds to the IowSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
75.5%
Warren, Mike rush for 21 yards to the UNI37 (Brown, Charles), PENALTY ISU holding (Philbert, Jaypee) 10 yards to the ISU32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 20
OWN 32
+3
73.2%
Joel Lanning run for 3 yds to the IowSt 35Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 17
OWN 35
+1
73.1%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Mike Warren for 1 yd to the IowSt 36Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 16
OWN 36
0
72.5%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Allen Lazard, broken up by Charles BrownSimilar
Q2 8:26
4TH & 16
OWN 36
0
72.1%
Colin Downing punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Daurice Fountain at the NIowa 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 13FUMBLE
6 plays · 33 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
70.1%
Aaron Bailey run for a loss of 1 yard to the NIowa 15Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+10
70.5%
Aaron Bailey pass complete to Jaylin James for 10 yds to the NIowa 25Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+16
70.1%
Aaron Bailey run for 1 yd to the NIowa 26 for a 1ST down IOWA ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Reggan Northrup) to the NIowa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
68.6%
Tyvis Smith run for 3 yds to the NIowa 44Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 7
OWN 44
-4
68.3%
Aaron Bailey sacked by JaQuan Bailey for a loss of 4 yards to the NIowa 40Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+9
70.3%
Aaron Bailey run for 9 yds to the NIowa 49 Aaron Bailey fumbled, forced by Brian Peavy, recovered by IowSt Brian MillsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14TD
4 plays · 49 yds · 1:2474% → 81%
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
74.1%
Lanning, Joel pass complete to Ryen, Trever for 9 yards to the UNI40 (Farley, Jared), PENALTY ISU holding (Bobek, Brian) 10 yards to the ISU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:44
1ST & 20
OWN 41
+42
72.5%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Allen Lazard for 42 yds to the NIowa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
74.7%
Joel Lanning sacked by Hezekiah Applegate for a loss of 1 yard to the NIowa 18Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+18
80.8%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 18 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0022% → 20%
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
78.3%
Tyvis Smith run for 2 yds to the NIowa 30Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
78.3%
Aaron Bailey pass incomplete to Daurice FountainSimilar
Q2 3:13
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
79.3%
Aaron Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:13
4TH & 8
OWN 30
+3
79.8%
Sam Kuhter punt for 52 yds , Trever Ryen returns for 3 yds to the IowSt 33 IOWA ST Penalty, IB (Mike Johnson) to the IowSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16SF
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:4979% → 75%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
78.7%
Mike Warren run for no gain to the IowSt 11Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
78.6%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Trever RyenSimilar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 10
OWN 11
-11
74.1%
Joel Lanning sacked by Karter Schult for a loss of 11 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & GOAL
OWN 20
0
74.9%
IOWA ST Penalty, intentional grounding (Joel Lanning) to the IowSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 17TD
13 plays · 61 yds · 1:1626% → 43%
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
73.8%
Aaron Bailey pass incomplete to Michael MalloySimilar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+19
74.2%
Aaron Bailey pass complete to Briley Moore for 19 yds to the IowSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
71.7%
Aaron Bailey pass complete to Tyvis Smith for 3 yds to the IowSt 39Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
71.6%
Aaron Bailey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+5
71.9%
Aaron Bailey run for 5 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q2 1:16
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+9
72.9%
Aaron Bailey pass complete to Tyvis Smith for 9 yds to the IowSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
70.1%
Aaron Bailey sacked by Kane Seeley for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 26Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+10
72.6%
Aaron Bailey pass complete to Michael Malloy for 10 yds to the IowSt 16Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+14
73.4%
Bailey, Aaron pass incomplete to James, Jaylin (Peavy, Brian), PENALTY ISU pass interference (Peavy, Brian) 14 yards to the ISU2, 1ST DOWN UNI, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
56.7%
Aaron Bailey run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Errthum KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 0:0065% → 66%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
64.6%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
65.0%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Carson EppsSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+13
63.7%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Allen Lazard for 13 yds to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
67.1%
Lanning, Joel pass incomplete to Lazard, Allen, PENALTY UNI pass interference (Campbell, E.) 15 yards to the UNI39, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
67.7%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Trever Ryen for 6 yds to the NIowa 33Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 4
OPP 33
0
68.7%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 4
OPP 33
-2
67.4%
Mike Warren run for a loss of 2 yards to the NIowa 35Similar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 6
OPP 35
0
65.6%
Colin Downing punt for 27 yds, downed at the NIowa 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:4838% → 36%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
61.9%
Tyvis Smith run for 6 yds to the NIowa 14Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+2
61.6%
Tyvis Smith run for 2 yds to the NIowa 16Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 2
OWN 16
-5
62.5%
Aaron Bailey sacked by Reggan Northrup for a loss of 5 yards to the NIowa 11Similar
Q3 10:57
4TH & 7
OWN 11
+4
63.6%
Sam Kuhter punt for 46 yds , Allen Lazard returns for 4 yds to the IowSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0065% → 62%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
65.4%
Lanning, Joel pass incomplete to Jones, Deshaunte, PENALTY UNI pass interference (Brown, Charles) 15 yards to the UNI38, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
66.1%
David Montgomery run for 1 yd to the NIowa 37Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 9
OPP 37
-7
66.0%
Joel Lanning sacked by Karter Schult for a loss of 7 yards to the NIowa 44Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 16
OPP 44
+5
62.6%
Joel Lanning run for 5 yds to the NIowa 39Similar
Q3 10:48
4TH & 11
OPP 39
0
62.1%
Colin Downing punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 21FG
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:1042% → 56%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
58.3%
Aaron Bailey pass complete to Jaylin James for 12 yds to the NIowa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
57.4%
Tyvis Smith run for 5 yds to the NIowa 37Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+15
56.6%
Tyvis Smith run for 15 yds to the IowSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
55.0%
Aaron Bailey pass incomplete to Jaylin JamesSimilar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+12
55.1%
Tyvis Smith run for 12 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
55.0%
Aaron Bailey run for 7 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+10
53.6%
J'Veyon Browning run for 10 yds to the IowSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
53.6%
Aaron Bailey pass incomplete to Jaylin James, broken up by Bobby McMillen IIISimilar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+11
53.8%
Aaron Bailey pass complete to Christian Jegen for 11 yds to the IowSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
53.6%
Tyvis Smith run for 5 yds to the IowSt 3Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
49.4%
Tyvis Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 5Similar
Q3 4:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
50.4%
Aaron Bailey pass incomplete to Daurice FountainSimilar
Q3 4:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
43.8%
Austin Errthum 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0049% → 48%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-4
49.3%
Mike Warren run for a loss of 4 yards to the IowSt 19Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 14
OWN 19
+15
48.8%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Marchie Murdock for 15 yds to the IowSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
49.9%
Joel Lanning run for 4 yds to the IowSt 38Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 6
OWN 38
-2
52.1%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Mike Warren for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 36Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
49.3%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q3 4:15
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
47.6%
Colin Downing punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Daurice Fountain at the NIowa 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 23MISSED FG
13 plays · 51 yds · 6:1357% → 69%
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
43.4%
J'Veyon Browning run for 7 yds to the NIowa 26Similar
Q3 1:54
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+5
41.2%
J'Veyon Browning run for 5 yds to the NIowa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
41.4%
J'Veyon Browning run for a loss of 1 yard to the NIowa 30Similar
Q3 1:54
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+14
43.1%
Aaron Bailey run for 14 yds to the NIowa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
37.6%
Aaron Bailey run for 9 yds to the IowSt 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 47
0
36.0%
J'Veyon Browning run for no gain to the IowSt 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+1
36.5%
Aaron Bailey run for 1 yd to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
36.1%
J'Veyon Browning run for 4 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+7
36.1%
J'Veyon Browning run for 7 yds to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
34.9%
Aaron Bailey run for 9 yds to the IowSt 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 26
-1
34.6%
J'Veyon Browning run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 27
-3
35.7%
Aaron Bailey run for a loss of 3 yards to the IowSt 30Similar
Q4 10:41
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+49
31.3%
Austin Errthum 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 24TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 3:3940% → 76%
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
39.8%
Mike Warren run for no gain to the IowSt 31Similar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+2
39.7%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Mike Warren for 2 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q4 10:41
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+14
38.3%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Allen Lazard for 14 yds to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
43.4%
Warren, Mike rush for no gain to the ISU47, PENALTY ISU holding (Chandler, Justin) 10 yards to the ISU37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 20
OWN 37
+15
39.4%
Joel Lanning run for no gain to the NIowa 37 for a 1ST down NORTHERN IOWA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Preston Woods) to the NIowa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
44.9%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Trever RyenSimilar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+7
44.1%
Mike Warren run for 7 yds to the NIowa 41Similar
Q4 10:41
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+8
44.9%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 8 yds to the NIowa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
75.6%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Allen Lazard for 33 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0040% → 35%
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
60.3%
J'Veyon Browning run for 2 yds to the NIowa 42Similar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
60.1%
Aaron Bailey pass incomplete to Daurice Fountain, broken up by Mitchell MeyersSimilar
Q4 7:02
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
62.0%
Aaron Bailey pass incomplete to Daurice Fountain, broken up by Jomal WiltzSimilar
Q4 7:02
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
65.4%
Sam Kuhter punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 26INT
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:0069% → 72%
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
68.8%
Joel Lanning run for 10 yds to the IowSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
69.4%
Mike Warren run for 6 yds to the IowSt 36Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+26
71.9%
Joel Lanning pass intercepted Charles Brown return for 26 yds to the IowSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 27TD
5 plays · 36 yds · 2:0843% → 87%
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+22
57.0%
Aaron Bailey run for 22 yds to the IowSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
54.4%
J'Veyon Browning run for 9 yds to the IowSt 5Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+3
54.4%
Michael Malloy run for 3 yds to the IowSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
54.5%
Aaron Bailey run for 1 yd to the IowSt 1Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
13.0%
J'Veyon Browning run for 1 yd for a TD IOWA ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 28FUMBLE
3 plays · 22 yds · 0:0026% → 32%
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
25.9%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Allen Lazard for 21 yds to the NIowa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
31.5%
Mike Warren run for no gain to the NIowa 43 Mike Warren fumbled, forced by D'Shawn Dexter, recovered by NIowa A.J. AllenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 29PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:5887% → 93%
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
13.2%
Aaron Bailey run for no gain to the NIowa 43Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
12.5%
Aaron Bailey run for no gain to the NIowa 43Similar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+4
12.6%
Tyvis Smith run for 4 yds to the NIowa 47Similar
Q4 1:26
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
6.9%
Sam Kuhter punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 30INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
16.4%
Joel Lanning pass intercepted Jared Farley return for 3 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 31END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
3.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 47Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 11
OPP 47
-1
3.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:49
J'Veyon Browning run for 1 yd for a TD IOWA ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-41.5
TD · Q4 7:02
Joel Lanning pass complete to Allen Lazard for 33 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)
+30.8
TD · Q2 0:00
Aaron Bailey run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Errthum KICK)
-13.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com