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BAY

Baylor 21 at West Virginia 24

WVU
2016 · Week 14 · Dec 3, 2016 · Milan Puskar Stadium
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Win probability · WVU
modelWVU aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playWVU scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:10 · Martell Pettaway run for 3 yds to the Bayl 11 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 86Pregame prior+20.9Home team on offense−6.3Garbage-time factor−2.3Score differential−3.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:52: Skyler Howard pass complete to Daikiel Shorts for 4 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK) — WVU win probability +10.0 pts (now 71%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q3 2:04: Skyler Howard pass complete to Gary Jennings for 58 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK) — WVU win probability +18.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:57: Skyler Howard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK) — WVU win probability +12.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:40: Zach Smith pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 43 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +24.0 pts (now 28%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:31: Justin Crawford run for 1 yd to the Bayl 37 — WVU win probability +11.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WVU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11BAY made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 13:15WVU 4th & 2 at BAY 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    82.9%−0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    82.5%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:39BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:49WVU 4th & 4 at BAY 29, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.4%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    80.9%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:19BAY 4th & 11 at BAY 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:23WVU 4th & 15 at BAY 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.1%
    49% to make
    Punt
    78.9%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:13WVU 4th & 19 at BAY 37, down 4
    Close callPunted · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%−0.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    74.1%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.9%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:50BAY 4th & 10 at BAY 12, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:21WVU 4th & 17 at WVU 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%−2.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:10WVU 4th & 3 at BAY 14, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    59.7%−0.5
    84% to make
    Punt
    55.1%−5.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:52WVU 4th & 3 at BAY 4, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.6%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    57.7%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    52.6%−5.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:30BAY 4th & 7 at BAY 24, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−1.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:57WVU 4th & 1 at BAY 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    68.4%−4.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    56.6%−16.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:28BAY 4th & 7 at WVU 29, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    12.9%
    58% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−4.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:24WVU 4th & 11 at WVU 48, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:20BAY 4th & 11 at WVU 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.8%
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    8.7%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    8.6%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:11WVU 4th & 7 at BAY 46, up 10
    Close callPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    92.0%−0.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:53WVU 4th & 4 at BAY 32, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 7.3 ptsPunted · 90.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    90.5%−0.2
    51% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.3%−7.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WVU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BAY made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 14:54BAY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:03BAY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:52WVU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:04WVU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:57WVU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:40BAY Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 2.4 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.8%−2.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:4317% → 17%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
83.4%
Terence Williams run for 1 yd to the Bayl 28Similar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+18
83.2%
Zach Smith pass intercepted Marvin Gross return for 18 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 2DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:4583% → 83%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
83.2%
Skyler Howard run for 3 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+5
83.2%
Rushel Shell run for 5 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
Q1 13:23
3RD & 2
OPP 22
0
83.1%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Jovon DuranteSimilar
Q1 13:15
4TH & 2
OPP 22
0
83.0%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Jovon DuranteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:3117% → 18%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
82.9%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
82.8%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q1 12:42
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+6
82.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 6 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
82.6%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+7
82.4%
Terence Williams run for 7 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 1
OWN 41
0
82.2%
Terence Williams run for no gain to the Bayl 41Similar
Q1 10:39
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
82.1%
Drew Galitz punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WVirg 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 4MISSED FG
9 plays · 43 yds · 2:4382% → 82%
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
82.2%
Justin Crawford run for 11 yds to the WVirg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
82.2%
Justin Crawford run for no gain to the WVirg 39Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+13
82.1%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Marcus Simms for 13 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
82.3%
Justin Crawford run for 9 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+4
82.2%
Justin Crawford run for 4 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
82.2%
Justin Crawford run for 2 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+4
82.0%
Martell Pettaway run for 4 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 4
OPP 29
0
81.8%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Shelton GibsonSimilar
Q1 7:49
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+46
81.5%
Mike Molina 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1319% → 19%
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
81.0%
JaMycal Hasty run for no gain to the Bayl 29Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
80.9%
Smith, Zach pass complete to Atkinson, Jared for 35 yards to the WESTVIR36, PENALTY BAYLOR illegal touching (Atkinson, Jared) 0 yards to the BAYLOR29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:38
3RD & 10
OWN 29
-1
81.0%
Zach Smith sacked by Adam Shuler for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 28Similar
Q1 6:19
4TH & 11
OWN 28
0
81.1%
Drew Galitz punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Gary Jennings at the WVirg 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 6FG
17 plays · 28 yds · 3:4581% → 80%
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
81.1%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Kennedy McKoy for 6 yds to the WVirg 46Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+3
81.2%
Rushel Shell run for 3 yds to the WVirg 49Similar
Q1 5:18
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
81.1%
Skyler Howard run for 2 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
81.3%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Marcus SimmsSimilar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
81.2%
Skyler Howard run for 5 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q1 4:19
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+10
81.1%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Holding (Taylor Young) to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-14
81.4%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Personal Foul (Shelton Gibson) to the Bayl 49Similar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
81.1%
Kennedy McKoy run for 1 yd to the Bayl 48Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+5
81.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Bayl 43Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+15
81.0%
Howard, Skyler pass incomplete to Gibson, Shelton, PENALTY BAYLOR pass interference (Waz, Chance) 15 yards to the BAYLOR28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WESTVIR.Similar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
81.2%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Gary JenningsSimilar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+5
81.1%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Offside (Clay Johnston) to the Bayl 23Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 5
OPP 23
-10
81.2%
McKoy, Kennedy rush for 1 yard to the BAYLOR22, PENALTY WESTVIR holding 10 yards to the BAYLOR33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 15
OPP 33
0
80.6%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Devonte MathisSimilar
Q1 2:29
3RD & 15
OPP 33
0
80.4%
Skyler Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:23
4TH & 15
OPP 33
+50
80.2%
Mike Molina 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:1919% → 24%
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
80.6%
Terence Williams run for 6 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+48
80.2%
Terence Williams run for 48 yds to the WVirg 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
79.2%
Ishmael Zamora run for 1 yd to the WVirg 20Similar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+7
78.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 7 yds to the WVirg 13Similar
Q1 0:35
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+3
79.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 3 yds to the WVirg 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
78.6%
Terence Williams run for 1 yd to the WVirg 9Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
75.7%
Terence Williams run for 9 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 45 yds · 3:3777% → 75%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
76.9%
Skyler Howard run for 3 yds to the WVirg 21Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+6
76.5%
Justin Crawford run for 6 yds to the WVirg 27Similar
Q2 13:56
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+16
76.2%
Martell Pettaway run for 16 yds to the WVirg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
77.4%
Justin Crawford run for 14 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
77.7%
Skyler Howard run for 6 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+9
77.5%
Martell Pettaway run for 9 yds to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
78.0%
Martell Pettaway run for no gain to the Bayl 28Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-15
77.7%
Howard, Skyler pass incomplete to Simms, Marcus, PENALTY WESTVIR illegal use of hands (Wesco, Trevon) 15 yards to the BAYLOR43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 25
OPP 43
0
76.3%
Skyler Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:49
3RD & 25
OPP 43
+6
75.6%
Skyler Howard run for 6 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q2 11:13
4TH & 19
OPP 37
0
74.7%
Billy Kinney punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1725% → 24%
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
75.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Jared AtkinsonSimilar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
75.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
Q2 10:57
3RD & 10
OWN 12
0
75.3%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
Q2 10:50
4TH & 10
OWN 12
0
75.6%
Drew Galitz punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Gary Jennings at the WVirg 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:1276% → 73%
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
76.0%
Rushel Shell run for 1 yd to the WVirg 41Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
75.3%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Marcus SimmsSimilar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 9
OWN 41
-8
74.2%
Skyler Howard sacked by Patrick Levels for a loss of 8 yards to the WVirg 33Similar
Q2 9:21
4TH & 17
OWN 33
+4
72.9%
Billy Kinney punt for 42 yds , Tony Nicholson returns for 4 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11TD
2 plays · 71 yds · 0:1227% → 35%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
73.3%
Terence Williams run for 11 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
65.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 60 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 12TD
16 plays · 78 yds · 5:0866% → 71%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+16
66.2%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Justin Crawford for 1 yd to the WVirg 23 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Personal Foul (Travon Blanchard) to the WVirg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
66.8%
Justin Crawford run for 9 yds to the WVirg 47Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+4
66.4%
Justin Crawford run for 4 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
65.5%
Justin Crawford run for 10 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
65.4%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Gary Jennings for 6 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+3
66.2%
Justin Crawford run for 3 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q2 6:48
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+9
64.6%
Martell Pettaway run for 9 yds to the Bayl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
65.4%
Shelton Gibson run for 4 yds to the Bayl 17Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+2
65.0%
Martell Pettaway run for 2 yds to the Bayl 15Similar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+1
63.2%
Martell Pettaway run for 1 yd to the Bayl 14Similar
Q2 5:10
4TH & 3
OPP 14
+3
61.8%
Martell Pettaway run for 3 yds to the Bayl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
63.4%
Justin Crawford run for 4 yds to the Bayl 7Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+3
63.2%
Skyler Howard run for 3 yds to the Bayl 4Similar
Q2 3:58
3RD & 3
OPP 4
0
61.3%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Daikiel ShortsSimilar
Q2 3:52
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+4
71.3%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Daikiel Shorts for 4 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13INT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:5431% → 37%
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
69.0%
Terence Williams run for 1 yd to the Bayl 28Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+4
67.3%
Ishmael Zamora run for 4 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+8
66.6%
JaMycal Hasty run for 8 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
64.6%
JaMycal Hasty run for 1 yd to the Bayl 41Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+10
64.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 10 yds to the WVirg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
63.5%
Zach Smith pass intercepted Jeremy Tyler return for no gain to the WVirg 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:4767% → 66%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
67.0%
Justin Crawford run for 5 yds to the WVirg 8Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+7
66.3%
Justin Crawford run for 7 yds to the WVirg 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 2:1866% → 65%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
65.8%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Daikiel Shorts for 5 yds to the WVirg 20Similar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+5
65.9%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Gary Jennings for 5 yds to the WVirg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
65.4%
Justin Crawford run for 7 yds to the WVirg 32Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
67.0%
Justin Crawford run for 6 yds to the WVirg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
66.0%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Marcus SimmsSimilar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
65.8%
Justin Crawford run for 5 yds to the WVirg 43Similar
Q3 13:18
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+4
66.3%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Marcus Simms for 4 yds to the WVirg 47Similar
Q3 12:37
4TH & 1
OWN 47
-5
65.4%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the WVirg 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5737% → 36%
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
62.6%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
62.9%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:14
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+3
64.4%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q3 11:30
4TH & 7
OWN 24
+69
64.2%
Drew Galitz punt for 62 yds, downed at the WESTVIR 14 WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (7 Yards) to the WVirg 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 24 yds · 0:5562% → 61%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+17
62.4%
Martell Pettaway run for 2 yds to the WVirg 9 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the WVirg 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
63.0%
Martell Pettaway run for 4 yds to the WVirg 28Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 6
OWN 28
0
63.2%
Skyler Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+3
61.4%
Martell Pettaway run for 3 yds to the WVirg 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:1440% → 44%
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
60.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 12 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
58.3%
Shock Linwood run for 6 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+14
57.8%
Shock Linwood run for 14 yds to the WVirg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
56.6%
Zach Smith run for no gain to the WVirg 38Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
56.4%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the WVirg 36Similar
Q3 7:34
3RD & 8
OPP 36
-4
56.2%
Zach Smith sacked by Marvin Gross for a loss of 4 yards to the WVirg 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 19MISSED FG
4 plays · 66 yds · 0:5658% → 62%
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+63
58.2%
Justin Crawford run for 63 yds to the Bayl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
64.4%
Skyler Howard sacked by Jamie Jacobs and K.J. Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 19Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 12
OPP 19
+5
64.2%
Justin Crawford run for 5 yds to the Bayl 14Similar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 7
OPP 14
0
61.8%
Skyler Howard pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:2144% → 51%
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
55.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 7 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+4
53.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 4 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
53.6%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+10
50.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 10 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
48.6%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
47.4%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q3 3:22
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
48.8%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 21TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 0:5952% → 74%
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
52.3%
Justin Crawford run for 9 yds to the WVirg 29Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+9
54.7%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Daikiel Shorts for 9 yds to the WVirg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
53.4%
Justin Crawford run for 4 yds to the WVirg 42Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
55.3%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Shelton GibsonSimilar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+58
73.7%
Skyler Howard pass complete to Gary Jennings for 58 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22FUMBLE
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:4027% → 27%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
73.5%
JaMycal Hasty run for 6 yds to the Bayl 15Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+2
72.6%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the Bayl 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 23TD
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:5377% → 88%
Q3 0:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
76.9%
Justin Crawford run for 4 yds to the Bayl 2Similar
Q3 0:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
76.8%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Shelton GibsonSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
75.3%
Justin Crawford run for 1 yd to the Bayl 1Similar
Q4 14:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.7%
Skyler Howard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 24DOWNS
8 plays · 46 yds · 1:1712% → 12%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
87.7%
JaMycal Hasty run for 5 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+38
86.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Chris Platt for 38 yds to the WVirg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
84.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
84.2%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the WVirg 30Similar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 7
OPP 29
0
85.4%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q4 13:28
4TH & 7
OPP 29
0
88.3%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:5589% → 89%
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
89.2%
Skyler Howard run for 8 yds to the WVirg 38Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+11
89.9%
Justin Crawford run for 11 yds to the WVirg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
89.9%
Justin Crawford run for no gain to the WVirg 49Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-1
90.2%
Skyler Howard run for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 48Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 11
OWN 48
0
89.8%
Skyler Howard pass incomplete to Shelton GibsonSimilar
Q4 11:24
4TH & 11
OWN 48
0
89.0%
Billy Kinney punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 26DOWNS
10 plays · 38 yds · 4:0010% → 8%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
89.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 5 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+20
89.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Jared Atkinson for 20 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
89.3%
Zach Smith run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 8
50
+1
88.9%
JaMycal Hasty run for 1 yd to the WVirg 49Similar
Q4 9:32
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+11
89.8%
Zach Smith run for 11 yds to the WVirg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
89.3%
JaMycal Hasty run for 6 yds to the WVirg 32Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+2
88.4%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the WVirg 30Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 2
OPP 30
-10
89.3%
Hasty, JaMycal rush for 5 yards to the WESTVIR25, PENALTY BAYLOR holding (Wilson, Ishmael) 10 yards to the WESTVIR40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 12
OPP 40
+1
90.5%
JaMycal Hasty run for 1 yd to the WVirg 39Similar
Q4 7:20
4TH & 11
OPP 39
0
91.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 3:0493% → 94%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
93.0%
Martell Pettaway run for 3 yds to the WVirg 42Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+4
93.5%
Martell Pettaway run for 4 yds to the WVirg 46Similar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+5
93.2%
BAYLOR Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
93.6%
Martell Pettaway run for no gain to the Bayl 49Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+2
93.8%
Martell Pettaway run for 2 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+1
93.9%
Martell Pettaway run for 1 yd to the Bayl 46Similar
Q4 4:11
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
93.6%
Billy Kinney punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 28TD
6 plays · 86 yds · 1:205% → 28%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
95.4%
JaMycal Hasty run for 6 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+13
95.5%
JaMycal Hasty run for 13 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
95.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 13 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
96.2%
JaMycal Hasty run for 5 yds to the WVirg 49Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+6
95.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 6 yds to the WVirg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
71.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 43 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 29PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:3890% → 92%
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
89.8%
Justin Crawford run for 1 yd to the Bayl 37Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+4
90.7%
Justin Crawford run for 4 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+1
90.2%
Justin Crawford run for 1 yd to the Bayl 32Similar
Q4 0:53
4TH & 4
OPP 32
0
91.6%
Billy Kinney punt for 32 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 30FUMBLE
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:2312% → 13%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
88.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+17
88.3%
JaMycal Hasty run for 17 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
86.5%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-7
86.7%
Zach Smith sacked by Noble Nwachukwu for a loss of 7 yards to the Bayl 30 Zach Smith fumbled, forced by Noble Nwachukwu, recovered by WVirg Darrien Howard , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 31END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
95.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:40
Zach Smith pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 43 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
-24
TD · Q3 2:04
Skyler Howard pass complete to Gary Jennings for 58 yds for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK)
+18.4
TD · Q4 14:57
Skyler Howard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mike Molina KICK)
+12.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com