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BAY

Baylor 35 at Texas Tech 54

TTU
2016 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2016 · AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:05 · Chris Callahan 37 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorBlowout margin
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 59Home team on offense+4.8Score differential+2.4Garbage-time factor+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.6Pregame prior−4.4Blowout margin+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:32: Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Quan Shorts for 81 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +15.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:19: Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 80 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +12.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:23: Terence Williams run for 9 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +11.9 pts (now 21%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:56: Zach Smith pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 21 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +13.2 pts (now 16%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:36: Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 9 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +11.4 pts (now 14%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8BAY made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 12:43BAY 4th & 3 at BAY 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    54.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:25BAY 4th & 4 at TTU 41, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    49.7%−0.5
    32% to make
    Punt
    49.9%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:18BAY 4th & 13 at BAY 40, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−0.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:49TTU 4th & 7 at TTU 17, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−1.0
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:05BAY 4th & 8 at TTU 20, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    36.8%−2.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:32TTU 4th & 1 at TTU 29, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    63.7%−2.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:44BAY 4th & 4 at TTU 19, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    36.2%−0.2
    77% to make
    Punt
    31.6%−4.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:32BAY 4th & 2 at TTU 21, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    19.4%−1.0
    74% to make
    Punt
    13.0%−7.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:07TTU 4th & 10 at TTU 43, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:02BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 27, down 27
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:20TTU 4th & 13 at TTU 26, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%−1.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:52TTU 4th & 7 at BAY 13, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    90.8%−3.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:36BAY 4th & 2 at TTU 33, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    3.3%−0.8
    49% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:05TTU 4th & 1 at TTU 25, up 23
    Close callPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:09TTU 4th & 9 at BAY 9, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    89.8%−4.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:07BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 34, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.3%−0.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:54BAY 4th & 12 at BAY 46, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:32BAY 4th & 17 at TTU 32, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%−0.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    2.8%
    51% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−0.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:39TTU 4th & 2 at TTU 38, up 19
    Close callPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%−0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:37BAY 4th & 9 at BAY 39, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.9%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7BAY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:43BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:05TTU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:09TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    50.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 3:13TTU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:32TTU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 7:19TTU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 6:23BAY Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 4:50TTU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q2 0:56BAY Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 10:26TTU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 9:37BAY Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 14:36BAY Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0756% → 56%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
44.0%
Zach Smith fumble, recovered by Zach Smith, Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
44.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 7 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q1 14:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
44.1%
JaMycal Hasty run for 8 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
44.1%
JaMycal Hasty run for 6 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+1
44.1%
JaMycal Hasty run for 1 yd to the Bayl 47Similar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
44.3%
JaMycal Hasty run for no gain to the Bayl 47Similar
Q1 12:43
4TH & 3
OWN 47
+53
43.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 53 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 2TD
13 plays · 77 yds · 4:2544% → 46%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
43.7%
Da'Leon Ward run for 5 yds to the TexTc 28Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+1
43.7%
Da'Leon Ward run for 1 yd to the TexTc 29Similar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+10
43.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 10 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
43.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+11
43.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
50
+1
43.9%
Da'Leon Ward run for 1 yd to the Bayl 49Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 9
OPP 49
-5
43.9%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Terence Steele) to the TexTc 46Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 14
OWN 46
+5
43.6%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Offside (K.J. Smith) to the Bayl 49Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+9
44.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 9 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
44.1%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 4 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+1
43.9%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 1 yd to the Bayl 35Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+35
46.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 35 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3FUMBLE
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:2755% → 54%
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
45.4%
Terence Williams run for 6 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+1
45.2%
Terence Williams run for 1 yd to the Bayl 38Similar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+4
45.3%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
45.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 3 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 7
OWN 45
-6
45.0%
Blake Lynch run for 4 yds to the Bayl 49 BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (Blake Blackmar) to the Bayl 39Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 13
OWN 39
+1
45.8%
Blake Lynch run for 1 yd to the Bayl 40 Blake Lynch fumbled, forced by Jah'Shawn Johnson, recovered by TexTc Luke SticeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 4TD
1 play · 40 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
49.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 40 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5DOWNS
8 plays · 34 yds · 1:3051% → 51%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
48.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 14 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
48.5%
Terence Williams run for 8 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+6
48.1%
Terence Williams run for 6 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
48.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 4 yds to the TexTc 43Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+2
48.3%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the TexTc 41Similar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 4
OPP 41
0
48.5%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:25
4TH & 4
OPP 41
0
49.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 6TD
4 plays · 59 yds · 0:5651% → 58%
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
51.1%
Da'Leon Ward run for 6 yds to the TexTc 47Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+25
51.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 25 yds to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+23
51.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Tony Brown for 23 yds to the Bayl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
58.3%
Da'Leon Ward run for 5 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:4143% → 42%
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
56.7%
Ishmael Zamora run for 18 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
55.7%
Ishmael Zamora run for 1 yd to the Bayl 44Similar
Q1 1:46
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+1
56.3%
JaMycal Hasty run for 1 yd to the Bayl 45Similar
Q1 1:27
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
56.6%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q1 1:26
4TH & 8
OWN 45
-5
57.2%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Clay Johnston) to the Bayl 40Similar
Q1 1:18
4TH & 13
OWN 40
0
57.6%
Drew Galitz punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Cameron Batson at the TexTc 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1160% → 60%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
59.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Quinton White Jr. for 1 yd to the TexTc 15Similar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+2
59.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Da'Leon Ward for 2 yds to the TexTc 17Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 17
0
60.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Keke CouteeSimilar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 7
OWN 17
+10
60.1%
Michael Barden punt for 44 yds , Tony Nicholson returns for 10 yds to the Bayl 49, TEXAS TECH Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Paul Banks III) to the TexTc 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9MISSED FG
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:3543% → 40%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
57.4%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the TexTc 32Similar
Q2 14:27
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+10
56.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 10 yds to the TexTc 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
57.0%
Terence Williams run for no gain to the TexTc 22Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+5
57.2%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the TexTc 17Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 5
OPP 17
-3
57.8%
Zach Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 20 Zach Smith fumbled, recovered by Bayl Zach SmithSimilar
Q2 13:09
3RD & 8
OPP 20
0
59.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q2 13:05
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+37
59.8%
Chris Callahan 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1664% → 64%
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
63.5%
Justin Stockton run for 6 yds to the TexTc 26Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
64.2%
Justin Stockton run for 3 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
64.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Keke CouteeSimilar
Q2 11:32
4TH & 1
OWN 29
-4
63.7%
Keke Coutee run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexTc 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1340% → 37%
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-6
60.0%
Zach Smith sacked by Jah'Shawn Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the TexTc 31Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 16
OPP 31
0
61.5%
Terence Williams run for no gain to the TexTc 31Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 16
OPP 31
+12
63.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Chris Platt for 12 yds to the TexTc 19Similar
Q2 9:44
4TH & 4
OPP 19
0
62.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for no gain to the TexTc 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 12TD
1 play · 81 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+81
78.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Quan Shorts for 81 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13DOWNS
10 plays · 55 yds · 1:5422% → 21%
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
78.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 7 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
78.7%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q2 8:57
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
78.8%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
79.2%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+31
78.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 16 yds to the TEXASTECH 44 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the TexTc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
77.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+7
77.9%
Shock Linwood run for 7 yds to the TexTc 22Similar
Q2 7:48
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+1
78.4%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the TexTc 21Similar
Q2 7:32
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+1
78.8%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the TexTc 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 14TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
91.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 80 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 0:4410% → 21%
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
90.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 10 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
91.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+15
91.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 15 yds to the TexTc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+31
91.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Chris Platt for 31 yds to the TexTc 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
79.2%
Terence Williams run for 9 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 16TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2584% → 94%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
83.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 12 yds to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
84.3%
Da'Leon Ward run for 2 yds to the TexTc 39Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-1
85.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 38Similar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+62
93.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 62 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17FUMBLE
6 plays · 31 yds · 1:125% → 3%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
94.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 9 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+4
94.4%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
96.3%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 6
OWN 43
-5
96.8%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Terence Williams) to the Bayl 38Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+19
97.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 19 yds Ishmael Zamora fumbled, forced by Malik Jenkins, recovered by TexTc Kris WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1895% → 95%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
94.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
94.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Tony BrownSimilar
Q2 3:14
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
94.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Cameron BatsonSimilar
Q2 3:07
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
94.6%
Michael Barden punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:493% → 2%
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
97.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 6 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+3
97.6%
JaMycal Hasty run for 3 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 1
OWN 27
0
97.1%
Terence Williams run for no gain to the Bayl 27Similar
Q2 2:02
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
97.7%
Drew Galitz punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexTc 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:3595% → 95%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-10
95.1%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tony Morales) to the TexTc 19Similar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 20
OWN 19
+7
94.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Da'Leon Ward for 7 yds to the TexTc 26Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 13
OWN 26
-12
95.0%
Patrick Mahomes II sacked by Patrick Levels for a loss of 12 yards to the TexTc 14 TEXAS TECH Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Patrick Mahomes II) to the TexTc 14Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 25
OWN 14
+12
95.1%
Da'Leon Ward run for 12 yds to the TexTc 19Similar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 13
OWN 26
0
94.7%
Michael Barden punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21TD
3 plays · 50 yds · 0:193% → 16%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
50
+13
97.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Chris Platt for 13 yds to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
97.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Chris Platt for 16 yds to the TexTc 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
84.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 21 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 22END OF HALF
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:4490% → 90%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
89.5%
Da'Leon Ward run for 9 yds to the TexTc 24Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+11
89.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 11 yds to the TexTc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
89.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
90.1%
Da'Leon Ward run for 4 yds to the TexTc 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 23TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 4:2491% → 99%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
90.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 4 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
90.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
Q3 14:40
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
90.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 9 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
91.2%
Da'Leon Ward run for 8 yds to the TexTc 46Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+1
91.4%
Da'Leon Ward run for 1 yd to the TexTc 47Similar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+8
91.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 8 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
91.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
91.5%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Bayl 40Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+3
91.6%
Da'Leon Ward run for 3 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+9
91.5%
Da'Leon Ward run for 9 yds to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
91.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 5 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+15
92.1%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Bayl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
92.1%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 13Similar
Q3 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
0
92.2%
Cameron Batson pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
Q3 12:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+7
92.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 7 yds to the Bayl 6Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
98.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 6 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 24TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:332% → 10%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
98.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 14 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+57
98.4%
Terence Williams run for 57 yds to the TexTc 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
98.2%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the TexTc 2Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
90.3%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 25FG
15 plays · 70 yds · 3:2794% → 95%
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
93.7%
Da'Leon Ward run for 5 yds to the TexTc 15Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 5
OWN 15
0
93.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
Q3 8:51
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+15
93.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 15 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
93.6%
Da'Leon Ward run for 9 yds to the TexTc 39Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+4
94.2%
Da'Leon Ward run for 4 yds to the TexTc 43Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+37
94.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 37 yds to the Bayl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-15
94.7%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Keke Coutee) to the Bayl 35Similar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
94.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Tony BrownSimilar
Q3 6:38
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+19
94.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Da'Leon Ward for 29 yds to the Bayl 6 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Bayl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
95.1%
Justin Stockton run for 3 yds to the Bayl 13Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 7
OPP 13
0
95.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Jonathan GilesSimilar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 7
OPP 13
0
95.1%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Antoine WesleySimilar
Q3 5:52
4TH & 7
OPP 13
+31
95.3%
Clayton Hatfield 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 26FUMBLE
16 plays · 74 yds · 3:486% → 4%
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
94.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 9 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
94.0%
Terence Williams run for 3 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
94.1%
Terence Williams run for 12 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
94.2%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Defensive Offside (Joseph Wallace) to the TexTc 46Similar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 5
OPP 46
+5
94.3%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Defensive Offside (Joseph Wallace) to the TexTc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
94.7%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the TexTc 39Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+7
94.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 7 yds to the TexTc 32Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 1
OPP 32
-1
94.7%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 33Similar
Q3 3:36
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+3
95.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 3 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
95.0%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Defensive Offside (Breiden Fehoko) to the TexTc 25Similar
Q3 3:12
1ST & 5
OPP 25
+24
95.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 24 yds to the TexTc 1 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, Face Mask (0 yards) (Desmon Smith) to the TexTc 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
95.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the TexTc 5Similar
Q3 2:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
95.7%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Roughing Passer (2 Yards) to the TexTc 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
96.0%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the TexTc 2Similar
Q3 1:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+15
96.3%
Terence Williams run for 1 yd to the TexTc 16 Terence Williams fumbled, forced by Jordyn Brooks, recovered by TexTc Jah'Shawn Johnson , return for 15 yds to the TexTc 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:4398% → 98%
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
97.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Justin StocktonSimilar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
97.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Justin StocktonSimilar
Q3 1:22
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+9
97.9%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 9 yds to the TexTc 25Similar
Q3 1:05
4TH & 1
OWN 25
0
97.9%
Michael Barden punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 28TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 1:233% → 14%
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
97.0%
JaMycal Hasty run for 14 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
97.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 6 yds to the TexTc 47Similar
Q3 0:22
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+22
97.1%
JaMycal Hasty run for 22 yds to the TexTc 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
96.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q3 0:04
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
97.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Chris Platt for 5 yds to the TexTc 20Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+11
97.2%
JaMycal Hasty run for 11 yds to the TexTc 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
97.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
Q4 14:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
85.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 9 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 29FG
9 plays · 41 yds · 3:0793% → 97%
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
50
+16
93.1%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 16 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
93.7%
Da'Leon Ward run for 2 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+23
93.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 23 yds to the Bayl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
94.7%
Da'Leon Ward run for 2 yds to the Bayl 7 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (4 Yards) to the Bayl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
94.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
Q4 12:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-4
94.9%
Patrick Mahomes II sacked by Patrick Levels for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 7Similar
Q4 11:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
95.0%
Da'Leon Ward run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 9Similar
Q4 11:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
97.1%
Clayton Hatfield 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 30INT
20 plays · 43 yds · 4:285% → 4%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.2%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.3%
JaMycal Hasty run for 4 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
95.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 5 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q4 10:07
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+4
95.2%
JaMycal Hasty run for 4 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
95.1%
JaMycal Hasty run for 6 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+3
95.2%
JaMycal Hasty run for 3 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q4 8:54
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+1
95.3%
Terence Williams run for 1 yd to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
95.3%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 43Similar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 15
OWN 43
0
95.7%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:29
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+3
95.8%
Ishmael Zamora run for 3 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 12
OWN 46
0
95.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q4 7:54
4TH & 12
OWN 46
+16
96.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 16 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
95.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Quan Jones for 13 yds to the TexTc 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-7
95.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the TexTc 32 TEAM fumbled, recovered by BaylSimilar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 17
OPP 32
0
95.5%
Ishmael Zamora pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 17
OPP 32
0
96.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Quan JonesSimilar
Q4 6:32
4TH & 17
OPP 32
+15
96.4%
Zach Smith pass intercepted Jah'Shawn Johnson return for 15 yds to the TexTc 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 31PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 2:4599% → 99%
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
99.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 10 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
99.2%
Justin Stockton run for no gain to the TexTc 30Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
99.4%
Da'Leon Ward run for 3 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q4 4:23
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+5
99.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 5 yds to the TexTc 38Similar
Q4 3:39
4TH & 2
OWN 38
+14
99.4%
Michael Barden punt for 40 yds , Tony Nicholson returns for 14 yds to the TEXASTECH 48 BAYLOR Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the Bayl 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 32DOWNS
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:532% → 2%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+17
97.8%
Terence Williams run for 17 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
97.8%
Terence Williams run for 3 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
97.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 7
OWN 41
-2
98.0%
JaMycal Hasty run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 39Similar
Q4 1:37
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
98.1%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 33END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:47100% → 100%
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
99.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 40Similar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 11
OPP 40
-2
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 42Similar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 13
OPP 42
-1
99.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:32
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Quan Shorts for 81 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)
+15.6
TD · Q2 0:56
Zach Smith pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 21 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
-13.2
TD · Q2 7:19
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 80 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)
+12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com