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KSU

Kansas State 42 at Baylor 21

BAY
2016 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2016 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreKSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:31 · Zach Smith pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 8 yds to the KanSt 17 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 165Home team on offense−27.3Score differential−14.4Garbage-time factor−11.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.3Pregame prior−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:55: Winston Dimel run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ian Patterson KICK) — KSU win probability +15.3 pts (now 54%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:41: Alex Barnes run for 11 yds for a TD, (Ian Patterson KICK) — KSU win probability +15.6 pts (now 55%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:41: Alex Barnes run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ian Patterson KICK) — KSU win probability +17.7 pts (now 74%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:30: Alex Barnes run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ian Patterson KICK) — KSU win probability +15.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:28: Zach Smith pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 19 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +20.0 pts (now 29%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 4 of 8KSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 14:17BAY 4th & 3 at BAY 17, tied
    Close callPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:13KSU 4th & 17 at BAY 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.7%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:20KSU 4th & 5 at KSU 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:03BAY 4th & 15 at BAY 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:34KSU 4th & 8 at BAY 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:17BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 13, tied
    Close callPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.8%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:14KSU 4th & 19 at BAY 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%−1.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    49.8%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:15BAY 4th & 9 at BAY 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:03KSU 4th & 2 at BAY 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    37.0%−2.6
    25% to make
    Punt
    37.9%−1.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:44BAY 4th & 6 at BAY 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:40BAY 4th & 8 at KSU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:00KSU 4th & 10 at KSU 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%−1.9
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:31BAY 4th & 8 at KSU 25, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.5%−1.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    9.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−4.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:35BAY 4th & 15 at BAY 37, down 21
    Close callPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3KSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q2 6:43BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:55KSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:10BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:41KSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:41KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:30KSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:28BAY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.3%−1.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:30KSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−0.9
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:08KSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:3148% → 48%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
48.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Blake Lynch for 2 yds to the Bayl 13Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+4
48.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Chris Platt for 4 yds to the Bayl 17Similar
Q1 14:26
3RD & 3
OWN 17
0
48.0%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:17
4TH & 3
OWN 17
0
48.0%
Drew Galitz punt for 35 yds, downed at the KanSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 2:4952% → 51%
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
48.0%
Jesse Ertz run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 8
50
0
48.1%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Winston DimelSimilar
Q1 13:31
3RD & 8
50
+10
48.1%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Byron Pringle for 10 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
48.1%
Charles Jones run for 4 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 6
OPP 36
-13
48.1%
Jesse Ertz run for 2 yds to the Bayl 34 KANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Bayl 49Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 19
OPP 49
+2
48.5%
Charles Jones run for 2 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 17
OPP 47
0
48.6%
Jesse Ertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:13
4TH & 17
OPP 47
0
48.8%
Nick Walsh punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Patrick Levels at the Bayl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3FUMBLE
21 plays · 83 yds · 4:3749% → 50%
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
48.8%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the Bayl 19Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+3
48.9%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 3
OWN 22
-5
48.7%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 17Similar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+15
48.7%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
49.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Pooh StricklinSimilar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
49.1%
Shock Linwood run for no gain to the Bayl 32Similar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
48.8%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:39
4TH & 10
OWN 32
+15
48.7%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (15 Yards) to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
49.7%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+5
49.9%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the KanSt 46Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 3
OPP 46
-1
49.9%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 49 Shock Linwood fumbled, recovered by BaylSimilar
Q1 8:31
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+6
49.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Chris Platt for 6 yds to the KanSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
50.0%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the KanSt 41Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
50.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+26
49.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Blake Lynch for 11 yds to the KanSt 30 for a 1ST down KANSAS ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the KanSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
50.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 11 yds to the KanSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-15
50.4%
Linwood, Shock rush for 2 yards to the KANSASST2, PENALTY BAYLOR personal foul 15 yards to the KANSASST19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 19
+11
50.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 11 yds to the KanSt 8Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-7
50.6%
Lynx Hawthorne run for a loss of 7 yards to the KanSt 15Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+5
49.9%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the KanSt 10Similar
Q1 6:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
50.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 8 yds Ishmael Zamora fumbled, recovered by KanStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 4PUNT
12 plays · 44 yds · 5:4950% → 50%
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
49.6%
Justin Silmon run for 4 yds to the KanSt 9Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+5
49.8%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 5 yds to the KanSt 14Similar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+5
50.0%
Justin Silmon run for 5 yds to the KanSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
49.7%
Justin Silmon run for 4 yds to the KanSt 23Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+7
49.7%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Byron Pringle for 7 yds to the KanSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
49.7%
Jesse Ertz run for 7 yds to the KanSt 37Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 3
OWN 37
-1
49.1%
Jesse Ertz run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 36Similar
Q1 2:24
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+8
49.3%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dominique Heath for 8 yds to the KanSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
48.6%
Jesse Ertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-2
48.9%
Justin Silmon run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 42Similar
Q1 0:28
3RD & 12
OWN 42
+7
49.8%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Byron Pringle for 7 yds to the KanSt 49Similar
Q1 0:20
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
49.7%
Nick Walsh punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:0151% → 50%
Q1 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
50.9%
Blake Lynch run for 7 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+5
51.3%
Blake Lynch run for 5 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-4
51.2%
Zach Smith sacked by Will Geary for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 28Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 14
OWN 28
-1
50.9%
Zach Smith sacked by Reggie Walker for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 27 Zach Smith fumbled, recovered by BaylSimilar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 15
OWN 27
0
50.2%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:03
4TH & 15
OWN 27
0
49.8%
Drew Galitz punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KanSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1752% → 50%
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
48.5%
Jesse Ertz run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 48Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+3
49.1%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 3 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
49.0%
Jesse Ertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:34
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
50.3%
Nick Walsh punt for 45 yds, downed at the Bayl 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0551% → 50%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
51.2%
Blake Lynch run for 1 yd to the Bayl 5Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 9
OWN 5
0
51.2%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 9
OWN 5
+8
50.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 8 yds to the Bayl 13Similar
Q2 11:17
4TH & 1
OWN 13
0
50.1%
Drew Galitz punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Dominique Heath at the KanSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:4951% → 49%
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+24
48.9%
Charles Jones run for 24 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
47.9%
Jesse Ertz run for 2 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 8
OPP 29
0
47.7%
Jesse Ertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 8
OPP 29
-11
48.5%
Jesse Ertz sacked by Patrick Levels for a loss of 11 yards to the Bayl 40Similar
Q2 9:14
4TH & 19
OPP 40
0
51.1%
Nick Walsh punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9FUMBLE
9 plays · 29 yds · 1:5252% → 52%
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
52.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 17 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
53.1%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
54.2%
Shock Linwood run for no gain to the Bayl 41Similar
Q2 8:28
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+7
53.1%
Shock Linwood run for 7 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
54.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 43Similar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+7
53.1%
Shock Linwood run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 8
50
-1
54.6%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 49Similar
Q2 7:25
3RD & 9
OWN 49
0
52.8%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:15
4TH & 9
OWN 49
+5
51.8%
Drew Galitz punt for 34 yds , Dominique Heath returns for 5 yds to the KanSt 22 Dominique Heath fumbled, recovered by BaylSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10TD
2 plays · 22 yds · 0:1756% → 64%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-3
55.6%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 3 yards to the KanSt 25Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 13
OPP 25
+25
63.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Blake Lynch for 25 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 11TD
7 plays · 90 yds · 2:1839% → 54%
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+37
61.5%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Deante Burton for 37 yds to the KanSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
59.4%
Jesse Ertz run for 5 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 5
OPP 48
-7
59.3%
Jesse Ertz sacked by Lenoy Jones Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the KanSt 45Similar
Q2 4:52
3RD & 12
OWN 45
+10
62.2%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Zach Reuter for 10 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q2 4:03
4TH & 2
OPP 45
+43
61.3%
Jesse Ertz run for 40 yds to the Bayl 5 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Face Mask (3 yards) (3 Yards) to the Bayl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
46.0%
Winston Dimel run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ian Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5153% → 51%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
53.2%
Zach Smith sacked by Trey Dishon for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 22Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+7
52.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Blake Lynch for 7 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q2 2:52
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
52.2%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:44
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
50.9%
Drew Galitz punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KanSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 13FUMBLE
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:4351% → 52%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
48.9%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Byron Pringle for 3 yds to the KanSt 37Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+9
48.2%
Alex Barnes run for 9 yds to the KanSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
46.9%
Jesse Ertz run for no gain to the KanSt 46Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-1
47.6%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dominique Heath for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 45Similar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 11
OWN 45
-5
48.3%
Jesse Ertz sacked by Tyrone Hunt for a loss of 5 yards to the KanSt 40 Jesse Ertz fumbled, recovered by BaylSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14TD
5 plays · 40 yds · 0:2756% → 68%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
56.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Blake Lynch for 4 yds to the KanSt 36Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 6
OPP 36
0
56.4%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+12
55.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 12 yds to the KanSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
57.3%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+24
67.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Chris Platt for 24 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16TD
11 plays · 84 yds · 3:5935% → 55%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
64.8%
Charles Jones run for 7 yds to the KanSt 23Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+4
64.3%
Charles Jones run for 4 yds to the KanSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
64.9%
Jesse Ertz run for no gain to the KanSt 27Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
65.6%
Jesse Ertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+26
66.6%
Jesse Ertz run for 26 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
62.6%
Charles Jones run for 5 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+11
62.2%
Alex Barnes run for 11 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+19
61.4%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Byron Pringle for 19 yds to the Bayl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
61.1%
Alex Barnes run for 1 yd to the Bayl 11Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+11
45.5%
Alex Barnes run for 11 yds for a TD, (Ian Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 1:5154% → 54%
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
54.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+8
53.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 8 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+14
55.0%
Shock Linwood run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
50
0
57.6%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 10
50
+3
57.2%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the KanSt 47Similar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 7
OPP 47
-1
56.9%
Zach Smith sacked by Reggie Walker for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 48Similar
Q3 8:40
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
53.8%
Drew Galitz punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KanSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 18TD
17 plays · 87 yds · 5:4849% → 74%
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
51.2%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 4 yds to the KanSt 17Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+11
51.2%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (11 Yards) to the KanSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
50.6%
Jesse Ertz run for 1 yd to the KanSt 29Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 9
OWN 29
-9
51.6%
Jesse Ertz sacked by K.J. Smith for a loss of 9 yards to the KanSt 20Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 18
OWN 20
+20
53.6%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 20 yds to the KanSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
49.3%
Alex Barnes run for 11 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
47.7%
Jesse Ertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
48.1%
Jesse Ertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+24
50.0%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Deante Burton for 24 yds to the Bayl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
43.8%
Alex Barnes run for 10 yds to the Bayl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
43.8%
KANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 20Similar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+10
44.3%
Alex Barnes run for 10 yds to the Bayl 10Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+6
43.7%
Alex Barnes run for 6 yds to the Bayl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
43.7%
Alex Barnes run for 3 yds to the Bayl 1Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
26.0%
Alex Barnes run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ian Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19INT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:4433% → 32%
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
33.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Bayl 25Similar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+2
31.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Shock Linwood for 2 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 18
OWN 27
+15
31.7%
Zach Smith pass intercepted Donnie Starks return for 15 yds to the Bayl 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 20TD
3 plays · 21 yds · 0:5575% → 90%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
25.5%
Alex Barnes run for 1 yd to the Bayl 20Similar
Q3 0:58
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+18
25.3%
Alex Barnes run for 18 yds to the Bayl 2 for a 1ST down Alex Barnes fumbled, recovered by KanStSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
9.7%
Alex Barnes run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ian Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21INT
7 plays · 44 yds · 1:3014% → 17%
Q3 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
14.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 6 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
14.8%
Shock Linwood run for 6 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
14.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 8 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+14
15.9%
Shock Linwood run for 14 yds to the KanSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
16.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 10 yds to the KanSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
16.6%
Zach Smith pass intercepted Donnie Starks return for 10 yds to the KanSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:3591% → 94%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
8.8%
Alex Barnes run for 5 yds to the KanSt 15Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+6
7.2%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Deante Burton for 6 yds to the KanSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
6.3%
Jesse Ertz run for a loss of 5 yards to the KanSt 16Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 15
OWN 16
+5
6.3%
Alex Barnes run for 5 yds to the KanSt 21Similar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
5.8%
Jesse Ertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:00
4TH & 10
OWN 21
0
5.9%
Mitch Lochbihler punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23TD
14 plays · 65 yds · 3:2414% → 29%
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
13.7%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+10
11.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
50
+9
11.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 9 yds to the KanSt 41Similar
Q4 9:38
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+14
12.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Blake Lynch for 14 yds to the KanSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
12.0%
Shock Linwood run for no gain to the KanSt 27Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
11.4%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:01
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+2
10.3%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the KanSt 25Similar
Q4 8:31
4TH & 8
OPP 25
+8
8.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 8 yds to the KanSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
9.2%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+10
9.0%
Shock Linwood run for 10 yds to the KanSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
9.2%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
9.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 3 yds to the KanSt 4Similar
Q4 7:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-15
8.5%
BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the KanSt 19Similar
Q4 7:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
+19
28.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 19 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 24TD
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:3785% → 98%
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
15.2%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Deante Burton for 15 yds to the Bayl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
15.0%
Alex Barnes run for 2 yds to the Bayl 6Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
13.5%
Winston Dimel run for 4 yds to the Bayl 2Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
2.5%
Winston Dimel run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ian Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 25INT
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:365% → 5%
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.1%
Blake Lynch pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
4.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 8 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q4 5:02
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
5.3%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
4.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 6 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 26TD
3 plays · 23 yds · 1:1498% → 100%
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
2.1%
Alex Barnes run for 12 yds to the Bayl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
1.5%
Alex Barnes run for 2 yds to the Bayl 9Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+9
0.3%
Alex Barnes run for 9 yds for a TD, (Ian Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:251% → 1%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
1.0%
Shock Linwood run for 17 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
1.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Bayl 32Similar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 20
OWN 32
+5
1.0%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 15
OWN 37
+7
0.8%
Shock Linwood run for 7 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 8
OWN 44
-10
0.8%
BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Bayl 34Similar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 18
OWN 34
+3
0.7%
Tony Nicholson run for 3 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q4 0:35
4TH & 15
OWN 37
0
0.7%
Drew Galitz punt for 46 yds, downed at the KanSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:28
Zach Smith pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 19 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
+20
TD · Q3 2:41
Alex Barnes run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ian Patterson KICK)
-17.7
TD · Q3 10:41
Alex Barnes run for 11 yds for a TD, (Ian Patterson KICK)
-15.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com