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BAY

Baylor 24 at Oklahoma 45

OU
2016 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2016 · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
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Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:15 · Drew Galitz punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Dede Westbrook at the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 28Pregame prior+33.0Home team on offense+1.5Score differential+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:45: Samaje Perine run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +3.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:14: Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 24 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +4.7 pts (now 14%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:45: Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 40 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +6.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:55: Samaje Perine run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +4.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:15: Zach Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +4.1 pts (now 6%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 1 of 5BAY made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 9:24BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:01OU 4th & 5 at BAY 42, up 7
    Close callPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    84.3%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:15BAY 4th & 11 at BAY 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:01BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.7%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:34OU 4th & 8 at BAY 45, up 18
    Close callPunted · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    89.4%−0.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.0%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:28BAY 4th & 2 at OU 44, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    8.6%−1.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:12OU 4th & 3 at OU 41, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:17BAY 4th & 20 at BAY 40, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−1.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:50BAY 4th & 2 at OU 35, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%−0.5
    45% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:00BAY 4th & 7 at OU 28, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:01OU 4th & 1 at OU 26, up 18
    Close callPunted · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:09BAY 4th & 17 at BAY 31, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−1.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:38OU 4th & 4 at BAY 4, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.2%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    96.8%−1.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:24BAY 4th & 7 at OU 7, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6BAY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:11OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:17OU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:45OU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:14BAY Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:45OU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:55OU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:15BAY Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:31OU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:13BAY Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3487% → 87%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
86.7%
Baker Mayfield sacked by Travon Blanchard and K.J. Smith for a loss of 5 yards to the Okla 20Similar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+6
86.4%
Samaje Perine run for 6 yds to the Okla 26Similar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+11
86.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 11 yds to the Okla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
86.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Nick Basquine for 5 yds to the Okla 42Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+10
86.1%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Jeffery Mead for 10 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
86.1%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Dede WestbrookSimilar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
86.1%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Nick BasquineSimilar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+28
86.0%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 28 yds to the Bayl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
86.0%
Joe Mixon run for 5 yds to the Bayl 15Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+15
86.5%
Baker Mayfield run for 15 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2DOWNS
8 plays · 26 yds · 1:3814% → 14%
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
86.2%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+1
86.2%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 1 yd to the Bayl 22Similar
Q1 10:24
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+16
86.3%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 16 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
86.0%
Terence Williams run for 8 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 2
OWN 46
0
85.9%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 2
OWN 46
0
85.9%
Terence Williams run for no gain to the Bayl 46Similar
Q1 9:24
4TH & 2
OWN 46
+1
86.1%
Terence Williams run for 1 yd to the Bayl 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0986% → 86%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
86.4%
Samaje Perine run for 5 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 5
OPP 42
0
86.3%
Baker Mayfield run for no gain to the Bayl 42Similar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 5
OPP 42
0
86.3%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Dimitri FlowersSimilar
Q1 8:01
4TH & 5
OPP 42
0
86.1%
Austin Seibert punt for 40 yds, downed at the Bayl 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:3514% → 14%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
85.9%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 1Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 11
OWN 1
0
86.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start ( Yards) to the Bayl 1Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 11
OWN 1
0
85.9%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Pooh StricklinSimilar
Q1 7:22
3RD & 11
OWN 1
0
86.1%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q1 7:15
4TH & 11
OWN 1
0
86.2%
Drew Galitz punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Dede Westbrook at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 5TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 1:4886% → 88%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
50
+7
86.2%
Joe Mixon run for 7 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 3
OPP 43
-2
86.2%
Joe Mixon run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 45Similar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+9
86.1%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 9 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
86.2%
Joe Mixon run for 7 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+29
88.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 29 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6INT
12 plays · 65 yds · 2:0613% → 13%
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
87.3%
JaMycal Hasty run for 5 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+2
87.2%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+2
87.1%
Seth Russell run for 2 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q1 4:01
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+23
87.4%
Seth Russell run for 23 yds to the Okla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
87.0%
JaMycal Hasty run for 1 yd to the Okla 34Similar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+12
87.0%
Seth Russell pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 12 yds to the Okla 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
86.8%
JaMycal Hasty run for 11 yds to the Okla 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
86.8%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Pooh StricklinSimilar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+9
87.3%
Seth Russell pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 9 yds to the Okla 2Similar
Q1 2:48
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+9
87.5%
Seth Russell pass intercepted Jordan Evans return for 9 yds to the Okla 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 7TD
11 plays · 91 yds · 4:4588% → 93%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
88.3%
Joe Mixon run for 5 yds to the Okla 14Similar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+13
88.4%
Joe Mixon run for 13 yds to the Okla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
88.5%
Joe Mixon run for 2 yds to the Okla 29Similar
Q1 1:03
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+6
88.6%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Geno Lewis for 6 yds to the Okla 35Similar
Q1 0:28
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+9
88.6%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 9 yds to the Okla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
89.1%
Dede Westbrook run for 5 yds to the Okla 49Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 5
OWN 49
-1
89.1%
Samaje Perine run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 48Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+43
89.0%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mykel Jones for 43 yds to the Bayl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
89.4%
Joe Mixon run for 2 yds to the Bayl 7Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
89.4%
Samaje Perine run for 3 yds to the Bayl 4Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
93.3%
Samaje Perine run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8FG
21 plays · 57 yds · 5:037% → 10%
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
92.8%
Seth Russell run for 7 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
92.7%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q2 12:01
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
92.7%
JaMycal Hasty run for 3 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
92.8%
Seth Russell run for 3 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
92.8%
Seth Russell run for no gain to the Bayl 40Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+10
93.1%
Seth Russell pass complete to Jordan Feuerbacher for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
50
+1
92.8%
JaMycal Hasty run for 1 yd to the Okla 49Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+4
93.1%
JaMycal Hasty run for 4 yds to the Okla 45Similar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+6
93.1%
JaMycal Hasty run for 6 yds to the Okla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
93.0%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Blake LynchSimilar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+7
93.1%
JaMycal Hasty run for 7 yds to the Okla 32Similar
Q2 9:17
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+5
93.1%
JaMycal Hasty run for 5 yds to the Okla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
92.9%
Blake Lynch run for 7 yds to the Okla 20Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+12
92.9%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 12 yds to the Okla 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
92.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Kyle Fuller) to the Okla 13Similar
Q2 7:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+6
92.7%
Seth Russell pass complete to Blake Lynch for 6 yds to the Okla 7Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
92.7%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Pooh StricklinSimilar
Q2 7:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
93.1%
Seth Russell run for 4 yds to the Okla 3Similar
Q2 7:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
-15
93.1%
BAYLOR Penalty, Personal Foul (Ishmael Wilson) to the Okla 18Similar
Q2 7:28
4TH & 0
OPP 18
+35
90.0%
Chris Callahan 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:4292% → 92%
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
91.5%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 11 yds to the Okla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
91.6%
Joe Mixon run for 7 yds to the Okla 43Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+10
91.8%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 10 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
91.9%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 4 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 6
OWN 43
-13
91.9%
Baker Mayfield sacked by K.J. Smith and Jordan Williams for a loss of 13 yards to the OKLAHOMA 44 OKLAHOMA Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Okla 44Similar
Q2 5:02
3RD & 19
OWN 44
+11
91.7%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 11 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q2 4:34
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
91.5%
Austin Seibert punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:169% → 14%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
91.0%
Seth Russell pass complete to Chris Platt for 6 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+1
90.8%
Seth Russell run for 1 yd to the Bayl 27Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+21
90.9%
Blake Lynch run for 21 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
90.4%
Seth Russell sacked by Jordan Evans for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 46Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+6
90.9%
Blake Lynch run for 6 yds to the Okla 48Similar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+4
90.9%
Seth Russell pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 4 yds Ishmael Zamora fumbled, recovered by Bayl Pooh StricklinSimilar
Q2 2:28
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+20
90.8%
Blake Lynch run for 20 yds to the Okla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
86.1%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 24 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 11INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:2189% → 89%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
88.5%
Samaje Perine run for 2 yds to the Okla 26Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+5
88.5%
Baker Mayfield pass intercepted Orion Stewart return for 5 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12FUMBLE
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:4613% → 13%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
87.4%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+10
87.6%
Seth Russell run for 10 yds to the Okla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
86.6%
JaMycal Hasty run for 5 yds to the Okla 43Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 5
OPP 43
0
86.4%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Pooh StricklinSimilar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+9
86.8%
Seth Russell run for 9 yds to the Okla 34 Seth Russell fumbled, forced by Will Johnson, recovered by OklaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:3189% → 88%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
88.6%
Samaje Perine run for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 32Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+9
88.5%
Samaje Perine run for 9 yds to the Okla 41Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
88.6%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Dede WestbrookSimilar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
88.1%
Austin Seibert punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
88.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 1:2813% → 12%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
87.0%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 8 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q3 14:33
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+17
86.3%
Seth Russell pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
50
-5
85.7%
BAYLOR Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Blake Blackmar) to the Bayl 45Similar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 15
OWN 45
-5
86.5%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Patrick Lawrence) to the Bayl 40Similar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 20
OWN 40
0
86.7%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 20
OWN 40
0
86.8%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 20
OWN 40
0
87.1%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Blake LynchSimilar
Q3 13:17
4TH & 20
OWN 40
0
87.7%
Drew Galitz punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Dede Westbrook at the Okla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 16TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 3:2487% → 95%
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
87.3%
Samaje Perine run for 4 yds to the Okla 19Similar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+5
87.3%
Samaje Perine run for 5 yds to the Okla 24Similar
Q3 12:13
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+1
86.8%
Samaje Perine run for 1 yd to the Okla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
87.6%
Samaje Perine run for 1 yd to the Okla 26Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+12
87.5%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 12 yds to the Okla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+16
88.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 16 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
88.5%
Samaje Perine run for 6 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+40
95.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 40 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17INT
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:306% → 6%
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-10
93.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (Patrick Lawrence) to the Bayl 12Similar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 20
OWN 12
0
94.0%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 20
OWN 12
+23
94.1%
Seth Russell pass intercepted Jordan Evans return for 23 yds to the Bayl 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 18TD
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 8:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.5%
Samaje Perine run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19TD
20 plays · 75 yds · 4:292% → 6%
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.9%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
98.0%
Seth Russell pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 7 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
98.0%
JaMycal Hasty run for 5 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
98.0%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Pooh StricklinSimilar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+1
98.0%
JaMycal Hasty run for 1 yd to the Bayl 40Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+17
98.1%
Seth Russell pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 17 yds to the Okla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
98.0%
JaMycal Hasty run for 4 yds to the Okla 39Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+2
97.9%
Blake Lynch run for 2 yds to the Okla 37Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+2
98.0%
Blake Lynch run for 2 yds to the Okla 35Similar
Q3 6:50
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+4
98.1%
Seth Russell run for 4 yds to the Okla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
98.0%
Seth Russell run for 9 yds to the Okla 22. Seth Russell suffers leg injury on the play and is carted off the field.Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 1
OPP 22
-5
98.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Kyle Fuller) to the Okla 27Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 6
OPP 27
0
97.8%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+4
98.0%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the Okla 23Similar
Q3 5:30
4TH & 2
OPP 23
-5
98.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Dom Desouza) to the Okla 28Similar
Q3 5:00
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+23
98.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Tecklenburg for 23 yds to the Okla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
98.4%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
Q3 4:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
98.5%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the Okla 1Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.4%
Zach Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5596% → 96%
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
95.9%
Baker Mayfield run for 3 yds to the Okla 20Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 7
OWN 20
-2
96.0%
Joe Mixon run for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 18Similar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+8
96.0%
Baker Mayfield run for 8 yds to the Okla 26Similar
Q3 2:01
4TH & 1
OWN 26
0
95.9%
Austin Seibert punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:405% → 4%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
95.4%
JaMycal Hasty run for 8 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+1
95.2%
JaMycal Hasty run for 1 yd to the Bayl 36Similar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+2
95.3%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
95.5%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Pooh StricklinSimilar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
95.5%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
Q3 0:28
3RD & 10
OWN 38
-7
96.0%
Zach Smith sacked by Jordan Evans for a loss of 7 yards to the Bayl 31Similar
Q3 0:09
4TH & 17
OWN 31
0
96.2%
Drew Galitz punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Dede Westbrook at the Okla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 22TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:2997% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
96.8%
Joe Mixon run for 16 yds to the Okla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
97.0%
Joe Mixon run for 4 yds to the Okla 40Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+4
97.3%
Joe Mixon run for 4 yds to the Okla 44Similar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+56
99.5%
Joe Mixon run for 56 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23TD
2 plays · 62 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
96.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 62 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 24FG
17 plays · 71 yds · 8:2197% → 100%
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.4%
Samaje Perine run for 1 yd to the Okla 26Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
97.5%
Samaje Perine run for 1 yd to the Okla 27Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+29
97.5%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Geno Lewis for 29 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
97.7%
Samaje Perine run for 8 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 2
OPP 36
0
97.8%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mykel Jones for no gain to the Bayl 36Similar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+2
97.7%
Samaje Perine run for 2 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
97.8%
Samaje Perine run for 3 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+14
97.9%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 14 yds to the Bayl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
97.9%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Samaje Perine for 3 yds to the Bayl 14Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+6
98.0%
Baker Mayfield run for 6 yds to the Bayl 8Similar
Q4 7:29
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+5
98.0%
Samaje Perine run for 5 yds to the Bayl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-4
98.4%
Baker Mayfield run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 7Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
98.4%
Samaje Perine run for 1 yd to the Bayl 6Similar
Q4 5:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
98.3%
Baker Mayfield run for 2 yds to the Bayl 4Similar
Q4 4:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
99.5%
Austin Seibert 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 25DOWNS
11 plays · 74 yds · 1:091% → 1%
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.3%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.3%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Dakota Austin) to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+28
99.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 28 yds to the Okla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
99.2%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+15
99.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to Blake Lynch for 15 yds to the Okla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
99.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 10 yds to the Okla 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.2%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
Q4 3:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.2%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Jordan FeuerbacherSimilar
Q4 3:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.2%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q4 3:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
99.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 6 yds to the Okla 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 26END OF GAME
5 plays · 47 yds · 2:33100% → 100%
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
99.6%
Samaje Perine run for 3 yds to the Okla 4Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+32
99.6%
Samaje Perine run for 32 yds to the Okla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
99.7%
Abdul Adams run for 3 yds to the Okla 39Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+5
99.7%
Abdul Adams run for 5 yds to the Okla 44Similar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+4
99.7%
Abdul Adams run for 4 yds to the Okla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:45
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 40 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)
+6.8
TD · Q2 2:14
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 24 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
-4.7
TD · Q3 8:55
Samaje Perine run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)
+4.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com