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TCU

TCU 62 at Baylor 22

BAY
2016 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2016 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreTCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:52 · Adam Nunez punt for 35 yds, downed at the Bayl 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 25Home team on offense−0.2Score differential−0.2Pregame prior+24.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:55: Kyle Hicks run for 6 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK) — TCU win probability +6.1 pts (now 36%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:44: Kyle Hicks run for 22 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK) — TCU win probability +12.4 pts (now 52%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:29: Seth Russell run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +7.0 pts (now 43%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:07: Kyle Hicks run for 3 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK) — TCU win probability +14.3 pts (now 81%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 13:13: Kyle Hicks run for 18 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK) — TCU win probability +10.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 12 of 14TCU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 14:04BAY 4th & 17 at BAY 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:52TCU 4th & 11 at BAY 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    27.0%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:30BAY 4th & 8 at BAY 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:56TCU 4th & 1 at BAY 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    27.6%−0.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    27.6%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:36TCU 4th & 7 at BAY 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    27.4%−1.3
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:36BAY 4th & 10 at BAY 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:55BAY 4th & 5 at BAY 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:44TCU 4th & 2 at BAY 22, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    39.6%−0.6
    72% to make
    Punt
    36.3%−3.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:37BAY 4th & 5 at BAY 31, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−1.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:16TCU 4th & 7 at BAY 32, up 24
    Close callPunted · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    65.5%−0.1
    51% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.9%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:41BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 38, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    35.7%−2.3
    average punt
  12. Q2 3:38BAY 4th & 1 at TCU 10, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    33.1%−3.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    24.6%−11.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:13BAY 4th & 3 at BAY 23, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:58TCU 4th & 5 at TCU 46, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:22TCU 4th & 9 at BAY 38, up 31
    Close callPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    94.2%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:33BAY 4th & 3 at BAY 27, down 31
    Close callPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q3 0:44TCU 4th & 7 at BAY 22, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    97.0%−1.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 15:00BAY 4th & 1 at TCU 25, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 13:41BAY 4th & 2 at TCU 2, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.6
    average punt
  20. Q4 9:53BAY 4th & 3 at TCU 35, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 9:53BAY 4th & 9 at TCU 28, down 33
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.2
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:48BAY 4th & 5 at BAY 21, down 40
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TCU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 14:38BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 14:04TCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:55TCU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:44TCU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:37TCU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:29BAY Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:07TCU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 13:13TCU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:41BAY Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    1.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.1%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 9:53TCU Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 3:48TCU Touchdown, up 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1TD
3 plays · 81 yds · 0:2275% → 75%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
75.4%
Seth Russell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:38
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+81
75.4%
Seth Russell pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 81 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2TD
5 plays · 54 yds · 0:3425% → 25%
Q1 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
75.4%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Kyle HicksSimilar
Q1 14:38
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
75.4%
Kyle Hicks run for 2 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q1 14:38
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+15
75.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
75.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 37 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.2%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
75.2%
Seth Russell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
75.2%
Seth Russell pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 11 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
75.3%
Seth Russell sacked by Josh Carraway for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 34Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+4
75.2%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 8
OWN 38
-9
75.2%
Seth Russell sacked by Julius Lewis for a loss of 9 yards to the Bayl 29Similar
Q1 14:04
4TH & 17
OWN 29
0
75.2%
Drew Galitz punt for 32 yds, downed at the TCU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
74.6%
Kenny Hill run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 36Similar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+1
74.7%
KaVontae Turpin run for 1 yd to the TCU 37Similar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 12
OWN 37
+16
74.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 16 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
74.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 6 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+5
74.4%
Kyle Hicks run for 5 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
74.5%
Kyle Hicks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 37Similar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 11
OPP 37
0
74.5%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 11
OPP 37
0
74.5%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:52
4TH & 11
OPP 37
0
74.7%
Adam Nunez punt for 35 yds, downed at the Bayl 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
74.2%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 4Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 8
OWN 4
0
74.2%
Seth Russell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 8
OWN 4
0
74.0%
Seth Russell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:30
4TH & 8
OWN 4
0
73.9%
Drew Galitz punt for 41 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the Bayl 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6FG
11 plays · 36 yds · 3:2027% → 28%
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
73.4%
Darius Anderson run for 5 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+4
73.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jarrison Stewart for 4 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
73.4%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Darius AndersonSimilar
Q1 8:56
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+7
73.7%
Kyle Hicks run for 7 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
73.3%
Kenny Hill run for 7 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+1
73.3%
Kyle Hicks run for 1 yd to the Bayl 21Similar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+9
73.4%
KaVontae Turpin run for 9 yds to the Bayl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
73.3%
Kyle Hicks run for no gain to the Bayl 12Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
73.3%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to KaVontae Turpin, broken up by Chance WazSimilar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+3
73.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 3 yds to the Bayl 9Similar
Q1 5:36
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+26
72.3%
Brandon Hatfield 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.1%
Seth Russell run for no gain to the Bayl 25Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
72.0%
Seth Russell pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 1 yd to the Bayl 26Similar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+14
71.7%
Seth Russell pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 14 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
72.8%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Pooh StricklinSimilar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
72.4%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+3
72.2%
Terence Williams run for 3 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q1 5:36
4TH & 5
OWN 45
-5
72.1%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 40Similar
Q1 5:36
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
71.7%
Drew Galitz punt for 48 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8TD
14 plays · 88 yds · 3:3528% → 36%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
71.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 8 yds to the TCU 20Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 2
OWN 20
-10
71.1%
Hicks, Kyle rush for 4 yards to the TCU24 (Levels,Patrick), PENALTY TCU holding (Elliott, Trey) 10 yards to the TCU10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 12
OWN 10
0
71.5%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 12
OWN 10
-5
71.9%
TCU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 5Similar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 17
OWN 5
+35
72.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 20 yds to the TCU 25 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, personal foul (Jameson Houston) to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
70.6%
Darius Anderson run for 11 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
70.4%
Darius Anderson run for 9 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+16
70.2%
Hill, Kenny pass incomplete to Porter, Emanuel, PENALTY BU pass interference (Houston,Jameson) 16 yards to the BU24, 1ST DOWN TCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
69.9%
Darius Anderson run for 3 yds to the Bayl 21Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+8
69.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 8 yds to the Bayl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
69.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for no gain to the Bayl 13Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+7
69.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 7 yds to the Bayl 6Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+6
63.8%
Kyle Hicks run for 6 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
64.0%
JaMycal Hasty run for 9 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
64.6%
JaMycal Hasty run for 3 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
64.5%
Seth Russell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 35Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+5
63.9%
JaMycal Hasty run for 5 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+2
64.3%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
64.1%
Drew Galitz punt for 35 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 2:1437% → 52%
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
63.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 7 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+40
62.4%
Kenny Hill run for 40 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
61.8%
Kyle Hicks run for 3 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
61.6%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Jaelan Austin, broken up by Ryan ReidSimilar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+5
62.2%
Kyle Hicks run for 5 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
Q2 10:44
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+22
47.7%
Kyle Hicks run for 22 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
43.0%
Seth Russell pass intercepted for a TD Ranthony Texada return for 28 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 12 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
42.9%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 21Similar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 8
OWN 21
-5
42.8%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 16Similar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 13
OWN 16
+3
42.7%
Terence Williams run for 3 yds to the Bayl 19Similar
Q2 10:37
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+10
42.5%
Seth Russell pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 10 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
43.1%
Seth Russell run for 3 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 7
OWN 32
-6
43.3%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 9 yds to the Bayl 41 BAYLOR Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Bayl 26Similar
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
43.0%
Terence Williams run for 5 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 5
OWN 31
0
43.5%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
Q2 10:37
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
43.0%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q2 10:37
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
42.7%
Drew Galitz punt for 44 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 43 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
35.4%
Kenny Hill run for 7 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+33
35.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Emanuel Porter for 33 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
34.0%
Kyle Hicks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 37Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+10
34.3%
Kenny Hill run for 10 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q2 8:16
3RD & 2
OPP 27
0
34.2%
Kyle Hicks run for no gain to the Bayl 27 TCU Penalty, IF ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 8:16
4TH & 2
OPP 27
-5
35.4%
TCU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 8:16
4TH & 7
OPP 32
0
36.0%
Adam Nunez punt for 29 yds, downed at the Bayl 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14TD
20 plays · 97 yds · 3:1235% → 43%
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+8
35.4%
Seth Russell pass complete to Blake Lynch for 8 yds to the Bayl 11Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 2
OWN 11
+7
35.7%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 7 yds to the Bayl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
35.8%
Terence Williams run for 1 yd to the Bayl 19Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 9
OWN 19
0
35.7%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
Q2 5:41
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+10
35.3%
Seth Russell pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 10 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
36.0%
Seth Russell pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 7 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 3
OWN 36
0
36.7%
Seth Russell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:41
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+2
36.6%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q2 5:41
4TH & 1
OWN 38
+7
36.7%
Terence Williams run for 7 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
37.6%
Terence Williams run for 6 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+14
38.2%
Terence Williams run for 14 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+16
35.6%
Seth Russell pass complete to Blake Lynch for 16 yds to the TCU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
35.7%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+3
35.4%
JaMycal Hasty run for 3 yds to the TCU 16Similar
Q2 3:38
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+6
35.2%
Seth Russell pass complete to Blake Lynch for 6 yds to the TCU 10Similar
Q2 3:38
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+1
34.8%
JaMycal Hasty run for 1 yd to the TCU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
35.7%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 3 yds to the TCU 6Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
35.7%
JaMycal Hasty run for 4 yds to the TCU 2Similar
Q2 2:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
42.6%
Seth Russell run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15TD
12 plays · 85 yds · 2:2264% → 81%
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+20
35.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 20 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
35.4%
Kyle Hicks run for 4 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-4
34.6%
Kenny Hill sacked by K.J. Smith and Taylor Young for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 35Similar
Q2 2:29
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+12
35.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 12 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
34.3%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Taj WilliamsSimilar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
34.4%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Jarrison Stewart, broken up by Travon BlanchardSimilar
Q2 2:29
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+17
34.7%
Kenny Hill run for 17 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
33.8%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Taj Williams, broken up by Verkedric VaughnsSimilar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+33
33.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 33 yds to the Bayl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
33.0%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to John DiarseSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
18.7%
Kyle Hicks run for 3 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
24.7%
JaMycal Hasty run for 3 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17TD
6 plays · 95 yds · 1:4777% → 89%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
22.7%
Kyle Hicks run for 5 yds to the TCU 10Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+41
22.8%
Kyle Hicks run for 41 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
21.7%
KaVontae Turpin run for 10 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+21
21.7%
Kenny Hill run for 6 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, personal foul (Greg Roberts) to the Bayl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
11.4%
Kyle Hicks run for 18 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0017% → 19%
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
17.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Kyle Fuller) to the Bayl 11Similar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 15
OWN 11
+12
17.3%
Seth Russell pass complete to Blake Lynch for 12 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 3
OWN 23
0
18.9%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
Q3 13:13
3RD & 3
OWN 23
0
18.8%
Seth Russell pass complete to Blake Lynch for no gain to the Bayl 23Similar
Q3 13:13
4TH & 3
OWN 23
0
18.7%
Drew Galitz punt for 36 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
9.8%
Kenny Hill run for no gain to the TCU 41Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
9.8%
Kyle Hicks run for 5 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
9.8%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Kyle HicksSimilar
Q3 11:58
4TH & 5
OWN 46
+14
10.8%
Adam Nunez punt for 40 yds , Tony Nicholson returns for 14 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · -5 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
12.8%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+13
12.4%
Shock Linwood run for 13 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
13.2%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Patrick Lawrence) to the Bayl 39Similar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+4
12.9%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 11
OWN 43
0
12.7%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 11
OWN 43
-15
12.6%
Russell,Seth rush for 3 yards to the BU46 (Carraway, Josh;Curry, Aaron), PENALTY BU personal foul (Wilson,Ishmael) 15 yards to the BU28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 26
OWN 28
-5
12.1%
Seth Russell sacked by Denzel Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 23Similar
Q3 10:44
4TH & 31
OWN 23
0
12.1%
Drew Galitz punt for 39 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
7.2%
Kyle Hicks run for 5 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+8
7.2%
Kenny Hill run for 8 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
7.1%
Kyle Hicks run for 10 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
6.6%
Trevorris Johnson run for no gain to the Bayl 39Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+1
6.6%
Darius Anderson run for 1 yd to the Bayl 38Similar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
6.9%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Jaelan AustinSimilar
Q3 8:22
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
7.7%
Adam Nunez punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
4.7%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 18Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+7
4.5%
Shock Linwood run for 7 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q3 5:33
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+2
4.6%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q3 5:33
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
4.5%
Drew Galitz punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 23FG
8 plays · 41 yds · 3:2698% → 99%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
2.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 1 yd to the TCU 38Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+27
2.1%
Kyle Hicks run for 27 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
2.0%
Darius Anderson run for 10 yds to the Bayl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-3
2.0%
Kenny Hill run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 28Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 13
OPP 28
+4
2.0%
Kyle Hicks run for 4 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+2
2.1%
Sewo Olonilua run for 2 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
Q3 0:44
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+39
1.3%
Brandon Hatfield 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 24TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 2:031% → 2%
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
0.9%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
Q3 0:44
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+45
0.9%
Seth Russell pass complete to Chris Platt for 45 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
1.1%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 4 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q3 0:44
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+3
1.1%
Terence Williams run for 3 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+2
0.9%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+2
0.9%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the TCU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
0.9%
Russell,Seth pass incomplete to Cannon,KD, PENALTY TCU pass interference (Texada, R.) 15 yards to the TCU8, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
1.1%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Pooh Stricklin, broken up by Travin HowardSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
1.1%
Terence Williams run for 3 yds to the TCU 5Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
0.9%
Terence Williams run for 3 yds to the TCU 2Similar
Q4 13:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
2.3%
Seth Russell 2 Yd Run (Seth Russell Pass to Pooh Stricklin for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 25TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 3:4899% → 100%
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
1.1%
Kyle Hicks run for 5 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+20
1.0%
KaVontae Turpin run for 20 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
1.0%
Kyle Hicks run for 2 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 8
OPP 39
-5
1.0%
TCU Penalty, false start (Aviante Collins) to the Bayl 44Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 13
OPP 44
+3
1.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 3 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+38
1.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 38 yds to the Bayl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
0.4%
Kyle Hicks run for 3 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 26DOWNS
14 plays · 56 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+16
0.3%
Seth Russell pass complete to Chris Platt for 16 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
0.3%
Seth Russell pass complete to Chris Platt for 9 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+6
0.3%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 6 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
0.4%
Seth Russell run for 7 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+4
0.4%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
0.4%
Seth Russell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
0.4%
JaMycal Hasty run for 5 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q4 9:53
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+2
0.3%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q4 9:53
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+6
0.4%
Seth Russell pass complete to Blake Lynch for 6 yds to the TCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
0.4%
Seth Russell pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 1 yd to the TCU 28Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
0.4%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q4 9:53
3RD & 9
OPP 28
0
0.4%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD Cannon, broken up by Ranthony TexadaSimilar
Q4 9:53
4TH & 9
OPP 28
0
0.4%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Blake Lynch, broken up by Denzel Johnson BAYLOR Penalty, IR ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 27TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 3:22100% → 100%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
0.3%
Derrick Green run for 12 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
0.3%
Derrick Green run for 6 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+13
0.2%
Foster Sawyer pass complete to Taj Williams for 13 yds to the BAYLOR 41 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
0.2%
Derrick Green run for no gain to the Bayl 41Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+12
0.2%
Derrick Green run for 12 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
0.2%
Derrick Green run for 3 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+26
0.2%
Sewo Olonilua run for 26 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
0.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Tony NicholsonSimilar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-1
0.1%
JaMycal Hasty run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 15Similar
Q4 3:48
3RD & 11
OWN 15
+6
0.1%
JaMycal Hasty run for 6 yds to the Bayl 21Similar
Q4 3:48
4TH & 5
OWN 21
0
0.1%
Drew Galitz punt for 44 yds, downed at the TCU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 29END OF GAME
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
0.1%
Darius Anderson run for 5 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+2
0.1%
Grayson Muehlstein run for 2 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+4
0.1%
Grayson Muehlstein run for 4 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
0.1%
Grayson Muehlstein run for 3 yds to the TCU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:07
Kyle Hicks run for 3 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK)
-14.3
TD · Q2 10:44
Kyle Hicks run for 22 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK)
-12.4
TD · Q3 13:13
Kyle Hicks run for 18 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK)
-10.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com