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BAY

Baylor 34 at Texas 35

TEX
2016 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2016 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDSAFETYTDTDFGTDFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:18 · Drew Galitz punt for 39 yds , Jacorey Warrick returns for 1 yd to the Texas 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+22.0+11.00−11.0−22.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 97Home team on offense+6.3Score differential+2.3Garbage-time factor−0.4Pregame prior−1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:35: D'Onta Foreman 9 Yd Run (Trent Domingue Kick) — TEX win probability +7.1 pts (now 65%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:09: KD Cannon 15 Yd pass from Seth Russell (Chris Callahan Kick) — BAY win probability +9.1 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 8:21: Terence Williams 2 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick) — BAY win probability +12.7 pts (now 57%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:03: Andrew Beck 7 Yd pass from Shane Buechele (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — TEX win probability +28.8 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. FG · Q4 0:46: Trent Domingue 39 Yd Field Goal — TEX win probability +41.4 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 6 of 10BAY made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 7:15TEX 4th & 18 at TEX 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−0.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:25BAY 4th & 13 at BAY 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:30TEX 4th & 7 at BAY 30, tied
    Close callWent for it · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    45.9%
    56% to make
    Punt
    45.5%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:01BAY 4th & 9 at BAY 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:06TEX 4th & 2 at TEX 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:47BAY 4th & 3 at BAY 17, tied
    Close callPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.9%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:42TEX 4th & 11 at BAY 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    47.4%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:57BAY 4th & 12 at TEX 35, tied
    Close callWent for it · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.4%−0.4
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    52.8%
    45% to make
    Punt
    52.3%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:18BAY 4th & 12 at BAY 28, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−1.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:18TEX 4th & 16 at TEX 28, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%−2.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:29BAY 4th & 1 at TEX 39, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    35.5%−2.7
    36% to make
    Punt
    35.0%−3.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:13TEX 4th & 4 at BAY 8, up 2
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.3%−0.7
    90% to make
    Punt
    45.8%−10.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:25TEX 4th & 5 at TEX 30, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−1.0
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:16BAY 4th & 10 at TEX 10, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−2.9
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.8%
    88% to make
    Punt
    38.8%−17.0
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:54TEX 4th & 10 at TEX 10, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−2.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:14TEX 4th & 5 at TEX 44, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:54BAY 4th & 6 at TEX 6, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    55.7%−16.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:10BAY 4th & 18 at TEX 37, up 2
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.4 ptsPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−5.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    67.9%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%−3.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:46TEX 4th & 6 at BAY 22, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−25.3
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    11.9%−41.9
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:00BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 43, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.8%−4.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 4 of 4BAY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:54BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:19TEX Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 11:05TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 9:26BAY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:35TEX Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:09BAY Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:21BAY Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:03TEX Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    42.5%−1.4
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    44.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:0353% → 53%
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
47.2%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
47.2%
Seth Russell pass complete to Sam Tecklenburg for 13 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
47.2%
Seth Russell pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 8 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q1 14:31
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+4
47.2%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
50
0
47.2%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
Q1 13:54
2ND & 10
50
+50
46.9%
Seth Russell 50 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2TD
9 plays · 88 yds · 2:3147% → 49%
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
47.0%
D'Onta Foreman run for 5 yds to the Texas 17Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+4
46.9%
D'Onta Foreman run for 4 yds to the Texas 21Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+4
46.8%
D'Onta Foreman run for 4 yds to the Texas 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
46.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 13 yds to the Texas 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
46.8%
D'Onta Foreman run for 6 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+3
47.0%
D'Onta Foreman run for 3 yds to the Texas 47Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+13
47.0%
D'Onta Foreman run for 13 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
48.5%
Armanti Foreman 40 Yd pass from Shane Buechele (Trent Domingue Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
47.9%
Seth Russell pass intercepted P.J. Locke III return for no gain to the Bayl 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4TD
1 play · 37 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
50.0%
D'Onta Foreman 37 Yd Run (Trent Domingue Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2951% → 53%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+45
49.5%
Seth Russell pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 45 yds to the Texas 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
49.0%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the Texas 25Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+3
49.1%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Texas 22Similar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+2
49.6%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the Texas 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
47.5%
Ishmael Zamora 20 Yd pass from Seth Russell (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 1:4749% → 49%
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
48.6%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 3 yds to the Texas 36Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+9
49.1%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 9 yds to the Texas 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-8
49.4%
Shane Buechele sacked by Aiavion Edwards for a loss of 8 yards to the Texas 37Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 18
OWN 37
0
48.9%
Tyrone Swoopes run for no gain to the Texas 37Similar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 18
OWN 37
0
48.7%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q1 7:15
4TH & 18
OWN 37
0
48.5%
Michael Dickson punt for 63 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:4651% → 50%
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
48.8%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-3
48.9%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 17Similar
Q1 6:33
3RD & 13
OWN 17
0
49.3%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q1 6:25
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
49.6%
Drew Galitz punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jacorey Warrick at the Texas 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8INT
10 plays · 32 yds · 2:5550% → 51%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
49.6%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Offside (Micheal Johnson) to the Texas 43Similar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 5
OWN 43
+4
50.2%
D'Onta Foreman run for 4 yds to the Texas 47Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+3
50.3%
D'Onta Foreman run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
50
-2
50.3%
Shane Buechele run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 48 Shane Buechele fumbled, recovered by Texas Shane BuecheleSimilar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+10
49.8%
D'Onta Foreman run for 10 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+9
50.5%
D'Onta Foreman run for 9 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
51.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 2 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+1
51.1%
D'Onta Foreman run for 1 yd to the Bayl 30Similar
Q1 3:38
3RD & 7
OPP 30
0
51.1%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to John BurtSimilar
Q1 3:30
4TH & 7
OPP 30
0
50.5%
Shane Buechele pass intercepted Ryan Reid return for no gain to the Bayl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:1750% → 50%
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
49.6%
Terence Williams run for 15 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-4
48.9%
Seth Russell sacked by Charles Omenihu for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 35Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 14
OWN 35
+5
49.4%
Terence Williams run for 5 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q1 2:11
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
49.1%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Terence WilliamsSimilar
Q1 2:01
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
49.9%
Drew Galitz punt for 38 yds, downed at the Texas 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:4751% → 51%
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
50.6%
Kyle Porter run for 10 yds to the Texas 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
51.0%
Kyle Porter run for 1 yd to the Texas 33Similar
Q1 1:12
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+6
51.0%
Kyle Porter run for 6 yds to the Texas 39Similar
Q1 0:24
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+1
51.7%
D'Onta Foreman run for 1 yd to the Texas 40Similar
Q1 0:06
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
51.2%
Michael Dickson punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1950% → 49%
Q1 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
49.9%
Russell, Seth rush for 24 yards to the BAYLOR34, PENALTY BAYLOR holding (Wilson, Ishmael) 5 yards to the BAYLOR5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+8
50.3%
Shock Linwood run for 8 yds to the Bayl 13Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+4
50.0%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the Bayl 17Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 3
OWN 17
0
50.2%
Terence Williams run for no gain to the Bayl 17Similar
Q2 13:47
4TH & 3
OWN 17
0
51.0%
Drew Galitz punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jacorey Warrick at the Texas 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:5853% → 52%
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
52.9%
D'Onta Foreman run for 6 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+1
53.4%
D'Onta Foreman run for 1 yd to the Bayl 47Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+12
53.0%
D'Onta Foreman run for 12 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
53.9%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-1
53.9%
Shane Buechele run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 36Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 11
OPP 36
0
52.7%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:42
4TH & 11
OPP 36
0
51.9%
Shane Buechele punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13FUMBLE
12 plays · 34 yds · 2:3650% → 49%
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
50.4%
Seth Russell run for 1 yd to the Bayl 21Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+15
50.5%
Shock Linwood run for 15 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
49.8%
Seth Russell pass complete to Blake Lynch for 20 yds to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
48.4%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+1
48.3%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the Texas 39Similar
Q2 9:58
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+6
48.4%
Seth Russell pass complete to Blake Lynch for 6 yds to the Texas 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
47.6%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Texas 38Similar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 15
OPP 38
0
48.8%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 15
OPP 38
-5
49.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Mo Porter) to the Texas 43Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 20
OPP 43
+8
49.2%
Seth Russell pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 8 yds to the Texas 35Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 12
OPP 35
0
49.3%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q2 8:57
4TH & 12
OPP 35
-11
51.0%
Seth Russell sacked by Breckyn Hager for a loss of 11 yards to the Texas 46 Seth Russell fumbled, recovered by Bayl , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14FUMBLE
1 play · 51 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+51
54.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 51 yds Armanti Foreman fumbled, forced by Jameson Houston, recovered by Bayl Jameson HoustonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15SF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
53.8%
BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (Blake Blackmar) to the Bayl 0 for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 1:5555% → 65%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
54.7%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 2 yds to the Texas 36Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 8
OWN 36
-3
55.0%
Tyrone Swoopes run for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 33 Tyrone Swoopes fumbled, recovered by Texas Tyrone SwoopesSimilar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 11
OWN 33
+40
53.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 40 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
57.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jake Oliver for 5 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+13
57.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jake Oliver for 13 yds to the Bayl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
64.9%
D'Onta Foreman 9 Yd Run (Trent Domingue Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:1237% → 34%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
62.8%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 7
OWN 33
-5
62.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 28Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 12
OWN 28
0
64.1%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 12
OWN 28
0
64.9%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q2 5:18
4TH & 12
OWN 28
+1
65.6%
Drew Galitz punt for 39 yds , Jacorey Warrick returns for 1 yd to the Texas 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:5264% → 62%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-8
64.0%
Shane Buechele sacked by Taylor Young for a loss of 8 yards to the Texas 26 TEXAS Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Texas 26Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 18
OWN 26
0
63.4%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Jacorey WarrickSimilar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 18
OWN 26
+2
62.6%
Kyle Porter run for 2 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q2 4:18
4TH & 16
OWN 28
0
62.2%
Michael Dickson punt for 53 yds, downed at the Bayl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19TD
18 plays · 81 yds · 3:5135% → 45%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
64.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, Illegal Participation (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 14Similar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 15
OWN 14
+6
65.2%
Shock Linwood run for 6 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 9
OWN 20
-6
65.6%
Seth Russell sacked by Naashon Hughes for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 14Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 15
OWN 14
+21
66.8%
Seth Russell run for 21 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
64.6%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 17 yds to the Texas 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
63.1%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the Texas 43Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+4
65.3%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the Texas 39Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 1
OPP 39
0
64.1%
Shock Linwood run for no gain to the Texas 39Similar
Q2 1:29
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+1
66.0%
Seth Russell run for 1 yd to the Texas 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
65.1%
Shock Linwood run for 7 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+1
63.6%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the Texas 30Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+12
64.9%
Seth Russell run for 12 yds to the Texas 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
64.2%
Terence Williams run for 3 yds to the Texas 15Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+15
54.9%
KD Cannon 15 Yd pass from Seth Russell (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
59.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21FG
8 plays · 67 yds · 2:3757% → 63%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.8%
D'Onta Foreman run for 5 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+40
57.5%
D'Onta Foreman run for 40 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+16
60.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Andrew Beck for 16 yds to the Bayl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
61.0%
D'Onta Foreman run for 4 yds to the Bayl 10Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+1
61.2%
D'Onta Foreman run for 1 yd to the Bayl 9Similar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+1
60.0%
D'Onta Foreman run for 1 yd to the Bayl 8Similar
Q3 12:13
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+25
63.4%
Trent Domingue 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 3:3640% → 57%
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
60.4%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+3
60.6%
Terence Williams run for 3 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q3 11:07
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+25
61.3%
Terence Williams run for 25 yds to the Texas 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+26
56.8%
Terence Williams run for 26 yds to the Texas 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
55.3%
Terence Williams run for 5 yds to the Texas 17Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 5
OPP 17
-3
55.5%
Seth Russell run for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 20Similar
Q3 9:26
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+11
57.6%
Seth Russell run for 11 yds to the Texas 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
55.8%
Terence Williams run for 6 yds to the Texas 3Similar
Q3 8:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
55.8%
Terence Williams run for 1 yd to the Texas 2Similar
Q3 8:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
43.1%
Terence Williams 2 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4748% → 46%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
48.2%
D'Onta Foreman run for 6 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
50.6%
Shane Buechele run for 1 yd to the Texas 32Similar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-2
47.8%
D'Onta Foreman run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 30Similar
Q3 6:25
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
45.9%
Michael Dickson punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 24FG
13 plays · 71 yds · 3:5755% → 65%
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+17
45.1%
Terence Williams run for 17 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
43.8%
Terence Williams run for 6 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
42.5%
Terence Williams run for 3 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+8
42.7%
Seth Russell run for 8 yds to the Texas 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
41.2%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+3
41.3%
JaMycal Hasty run for 3 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q3 4:16
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+8
41.6%
Seth Russell run for 8 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+17
41.0%
Terence Williams run for 17 yds to the Texas 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
39.2%
Seth Russell pass complete to Jordan Feuerbacher for 11 yds to the Texas 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-6
39.2%
Seth Russell sacked by Malik Jefferson for a loss of 6 yards to the Texas 14 BAYLOR Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Texas 14Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+3
39.9%
Terence Williams run for 3 yds to the Texas 11Similar
Q3 2:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+1
41.4%
Terence Williams run for 1 yd to the Texas 10Similar
Q3 2:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
35.0%
Chris Callahan 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0637% → 34%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
37.3%
Shane Buechele run for 7 yds to the Texas 17Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 3
OWN 17
-7
37.3%
Shane Buechele sacked by Ira Lewis for a loss of 7 yards to the Texas 10Similar
Q3 1:03
3RD & 10
OWN 10
0
35.3%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Jacorey WarrickSimilar
Q3 0:54
4TH & 10
OWN 10
+12
34.4%
Michael Dickson punt for 43 yds , Tony Nicholson returns for 12 yds to the Texas 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 26FUMBLE
3 plays · 34 yds · 0:4670% → 72%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+25
30.1%
Seth Russell run for 25 yds to the Texas 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
28.3%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the Texas 12Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+5
28.0%
JaMycal Hasty run for 5 yds to the Texas 7 JaMycal Hasty fumbled, forced by Anthony Wheeler, recovered by Texas P.J. Locke IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 37 yds · 1:3035% → 35%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+32
35.4%
D'Onta Foreman run for 32 yds to the Texas 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
37.8%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Devin DuvernaySimilar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
37.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jacorey Warrick for 5 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
38.4%
Tyrone Swoopes run for no gain to the Texas 44Similar
Q4 13:14
4TH & 5
OWN 44
+51
35.2%
Michael Dickson punt for 56 yds for a touchback TEXAS Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 28FG
12 plays · 69 yds · 4:0668% → 82%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
31.8%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 4 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
30.8%
Terence Williams run for 7 yds to the Bayl 36 Terence Williams fumbled, forced by Anthony Wheeler, recovered by Bayl Terence Williams for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
30.2%
Seth Russell pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 9 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+9
28.2%
Terence Williams run for 9 yds to the Texas 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
26.9%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+12
26.7%
Terence Williams run for 12 yds to the Texas 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+28
25.3%
Seth Russell run for 28 yds to the Texas 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
24.8%
JaMycal Hasty run for 4 yds to the Texas 2Similar
Q4 9:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
24.4%
Seth Russell run for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 5Similar
Q4 9:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
24.4%
JaMycal Hasty run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 6Similar
Q4 8:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
18.1%
Chris Callahan 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 29TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 1:4021% → 55%
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
20.8%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Devin DuvernaySimilar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+5
20.6%
D'Onta Foreman run for 5 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+61
19.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Lorenzo Joe for 61 yds to the Bayl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
28.0%
D'Onta Foreman run for 3 yds to the Bayl 10Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+3
26.2%
D'Onta Foreman run for 3 yds to the Bayl 7Similar
Q4 7:03
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+7
55.0%
Andrew Beck 7 Yd pass from Shane Buechele (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 30PUNT
12 plays · 41 yds · 3:5360% → 70%
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
40.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 17Similar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+1
40.3%
Terence Williams run for 1 yd to the Bayl 18Similar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 14
OWN 18
+39
40.2%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 39 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
34.2%
JaMycal Hasty run for 4 yds to the Texas 39Similar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+5
32.0%
Seth Russell run for 5 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q4 4:44
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+5
29.4%
Terence Williams run for 5 yds to the Texas 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-6
24.3%
Seth Russell sacked by Bryce Cottrell for a loss of 6 yards to the Texas 35Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 16
OPP 35
-2
24.8%
JaMycal Hasty run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 37Similar
Q4 3:19
3RD & 18
OPP 37
0
26.9%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q4 3:10
4TH & 18
OPP 37
0
30.3%
Drew Galitz punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 31FG
8 plays · 58 yds · 2:0939% → 80%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
39.4%
D'Onta Foreman run for 4 yds to the Texas 24Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+12
40.0%
D'Onta Foreman run for 12 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+38
39.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 38 yds to the Bayl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
49.1%
D'Onta Foreman run for 3 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+5
47.6%
D'Onta Foreman run for 5 yds to the Bayl 18Similar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 2
OPP 18
-4
43.9%
Tyrone Swoopes run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 22Similar
Q4 0:46
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+39
80.2%
Trent Domingue 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 32DOWNS
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:3930% → 21%
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
70.1%
Seth Russell run for 10 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
68.1%
Seth Russell run for 2 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q4 0:17
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-5
73.0%
Seth Russell sacked by Malik Jefferson for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 32Similar
Q4 0:04
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+11
80.7%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 11 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
78.7%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:46
Trent Domingue 39 Yd Field Goal
+41.4
TD · Q4 7:03
Andrew Beck 7 Yd pass from Shane Buechele (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+28.8
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+21.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com