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KU

Kansas 7 at Baylor 49

BAY
2016 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2016 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadKU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreKU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:00 · Chris Callahan 36 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 67Pregame prior+40.2Home team on offense+13.2Score differential+9.4Blowout margin−0.1Garbage-time factor+3.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 11:55: Seth Russell 5 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick) — BAY win probability +0.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 8:40: Ryan Reid 64 Yd Interception Return (Chris Callahan Kick) — BAY win probability +0.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 2:47: Seth Russell 26 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick) — BAY win probability +0.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:26: KD Cannon 59 Yd pass from Seth Russell (Chris Callahan Kick) — BAY win probability +1.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 5:49: Shock Linwood 4 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick) — BAY win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 7 of 10KU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 9:00KU 4th & 1 at BAY 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    2.6%−0.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    2.7%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:56KU 4th & 11 at KU 15, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:49BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 12, up 14
    Close callPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:20KU 4th & 3 at BAY 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    2.8%−0.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:47BAY 4th & 4 at KU 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    97.1%−<0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    96.7%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:40KU 4th & 13 at KU 21, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:27BAY 4th & 10 at BAY 44, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:00BAY 4th & 5 at KU 19, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    97.3%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:31BAY 4th & 8 at KU 17, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.2%
    80% to make
    Punt
    97.4%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:37KU 4th & 13 at KU 17, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:48KU 4th & 5 at KU 42, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:46KU 4th & 12 at KU 23, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:38BAY 4th & 1 at KU 29, up 49
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:11BAY 4th & 16 at KU 32, up 49
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    51% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:00BAY 4th & 8 at KU 38, up 42
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:29KU 4th & 6 at KU 6, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:55BAY 4th & 1 at KU 4, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:25KU 4th & 10 at KU 4, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:49BAY 4th & 9 at KU 42, up 42
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−<0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 7 of 7KU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:55BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:40BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:47BAY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:26BAY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:49BAY Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:45BAY Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:00BAY Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:22KU Touchdown, down 43 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:5198% → 98%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
97.8%
Seth Russell pass complete to Chris Platt for 9 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+13
97.7%
Seth Russell run for 13 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
97.7%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 8 yds to the Kans 45Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+2
97.7%
Seth Russell run for 2 yds to the Kans 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
97.6%
Seth Russell pass complete to Chris Platt for 8 yds to the Kans 35Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+12
97.6%
Shock Linwood run for 12 yds to the Kans 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
97.5%
Seth Russell run for 8 yds to the Kans 15Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 2
OPP 15
0
97.5%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+10
97.5%
Terence Williams run for 10 yds to the Kans 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
97.5%
Terence Williams run for no gain to the Kans 5Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
97.5%
Seth Russell 5 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 2INT TD
10 plays · 38 yds · 3:153% → 3%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
97.5%
Taylor Martin run for 8 yds to the Kans 28Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+14
97.4%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Shakiem Barbel for 14 yds to the Kans 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+2
97.4%
Taylor Martin run for 2 yds to the Kans 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
97.4%
Ryan Willis pass complete to LaQuvionte Gonzalez for 3 yds to the Kans 33Similar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
97.3%
Taylor Martin run for no gain to the Kans 47Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+8
97.3%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Evan Fairs for 8 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+1
97.2%
Taylor Martin run for 1 yd to the Bayl 44Similar
Q1 9:00
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+2
97.1%
Ryan Willis run for 2 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+64
97.3%
Ryan Reid 64 Yd Interception Return (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:173% → 3%
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
97.4%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 1 yd to the Kans 17Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 9
OWN 17
-8
97.4%
Ryan Willis sacked by Ira Lewis for a loss of 8 yards to the Kans 9Similar
Q1 7:27
3RD & 17
OWN 9
+6
97.4%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 6 yds to the Kans 15Similar
Q1 6:56
4TH & 11
OWN 15
0
97.3%
Cole Moos punt for 82 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0197% → 97%
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
97.4%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+1
97.4%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the Bayl 4Similar
Q1 6:24
3RD & 9
OWN 4
+8
97.3%
Shock Linwood run for 8 yds to the Bayl 12Similar
Q1 5:49
4TH & 1
OWN 12
0
97.3%
Drew Galitz punt for 37 yds, downed at the Bayl 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 5DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:153% → 3%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
97.1%
Ryan Willis run for 2 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
97.1%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:50
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+5
97.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to LaQuvionte Gonzalez for 5 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q1 4:20
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
97.0%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Evan FairsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6TD
6 plays · 58 yds · 1:1797% → 98%
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
97.3%
Terence Williams run for 3 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+23
97.3%
Seth Russell pass complete to Lynx Hawthorne for 23 yds to the Kans 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
97.3%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+6
97.3%
Seth Russell run for 6 yds to the Kans 26Similar
Q1 2:56
3RD & 4
OPP 26
0
97.2%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q1 2:47
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+26
97.8%
Seth Russell 26 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:002% → 2%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
97.8%
Ke'aun Kinner run for no gain to the Kans 8Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+16
97.9%
Ryan Willis pass complete to LaQuvionte Gonzalez for 16 yds to the Kans 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
97.8%
Ryan Willis pass complete to LaQuvionte Gonzalez for no gain to the Kans 24Similar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
97.9%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Denzell EvansSimilar
Q1 1:23
3RD & 10
OWN 24
-6
97.9%
KANSAS Penalty, False Start (-6 Yards) to the Kans 18Similar
Q1 1:09
3RD & 16
OWN 18
+3
97.9%
Ryan Willis run for 3 yds to the Kans 21Similar
Q1 0:40
4TH & 13
OWN 21
+18
97.9%
Cole Moos punt for 53 yds , Tony Nicholson returns for 18 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0898% → 98%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
97.9%
Seth Russell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
97.9%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Sam TecklenburgSimilar
Q1 0:27
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
97.8%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q1 0:27
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
97.7%
Drew Galitz punt for 48 yds, fair catch by LaQuvionte Gonzalez at the Kans 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 2:312% → 2%
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
97.9%
Taylor Martin run for 6 yds to the Kans 14Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+5
97.9%
Taylor Martin run for 5 yds to the Kans 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-7
97.9%
LaQuvionte Gonzalez run for a loss of 7 yards to the Kans 12Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 17
OWN 12
-5
98.0%
Ryan Willis sacked by Taylor Young for a loss of 5 yards to the Kans 7Similar
Q2 12:49
3RD & 22
OWN 7
+1
98.1%
Taylor Martin run for 1 yd to the Kans 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10MISSED FG
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:1298% → 98%
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
98.2%
Chris Platt run for 8 yds to the Kans 29Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 2
OPP 29
0
98.2%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q2 11:58
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+5
98.2%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the Kans 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
98.2%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+6
98.2%
Seth Russell pass complete to Jordan Feuerbacher for 6 yds to the Kans 18Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 4
OPP 18
-1
98.2%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 19Similar
Q2 11:00
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+36
98.2%
Chris Callahan 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 11INT
4 plays · 38 yds · 1:092% → 2%
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
98.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 6 yds to the Kans 26Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
98.0%
Khalil Herbert run for 5 yds to the Kans 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+27
97.9%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Jeremiah Booker for 27 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+52
97.9%
Ryan Willis pass intercepted Ryan Reid return for 52 yds to the Kans 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12MISSED FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4999% → 98%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
98.5%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 20Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+3
98.5%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Kans 17Similar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 8
OPP 17
0
98.4%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q2 8:31
4TH & 8
OPP 17
+34
98.4%
Chris Callahan 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:382% → 2%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
98.1%
Ryan Willis sacked by Taylor Young for a loss of 3 yards to the Kans 17Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 13
OWN 17
-7
98.0%
Ryan Willis sacked by Raaquan Davis for a loss of 7 yards to the Kans 10Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 20
OWN 10
+7
98.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Bobby Hartzog Jr. for 7 yds to the Kans 17Similar
Q2 6:37
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
98.0%
Cole Moos punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14TD
1 play · 59 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
99.2%
KD Cannon 59 Yd pass from Seth Russell (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 15FUMBLE
3 plays · -10 yds · 0:201% → 1%
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-7
99.4%
KANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-7 Yards) to the Kans 7Similar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 17
OWN 7
-3
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Kans 4 TEAM fumbled, recovered by BaylSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16TD
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 5:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.4%
Shock Linwood 4 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:440% → 0%
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.6%
Denzell Evans run for 2 yds to the Kans 27Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
99.7%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Kans 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
99.6%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Shakiem Barbel for 3 yds to the Kans 40Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+2
99.7%
Ryan Willis run for 2 yds to the Kans 42Similar
Q2 3:59
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
99.6%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Steven Sims Jr.Similar
Q2 3:48
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
99.6%
Cole Moos punt for 31 yds, downed at the Bayl 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 1:58100% → 100%
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
99.5%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
99.5%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q2 3:28
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+19
99.5%
Seth Russell pass complete to Lynx Hawthorne for 19 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
99.5%
Lynx Hawthorne run for 5 yds to the Kans 49Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 5
OPP 49
0
99.5%
Seth Russell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+13
99.5%
Shock Linwood run for 13 yds to the Kans 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
99.5%
Seth Russell run for 8 yds to the Kans 28Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+2
99.6%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the Kans 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
99.6%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 8 yds to the Kans 18Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+14
99.6%
KANSAS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (14 Yards) to the Kans 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.7%
Ishmael Zamora 4 Yd pass from Seth Russell (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 19END OF HALF
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:580% → 0%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.7%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 4 yds to the Kans 29Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+14
99.7%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 14 yds to the Kans 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
99.7%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-2
99.7%
Ke'aun Kinner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kans 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 20INT
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:440% → 0%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
99.7%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 6 yds to the Kans 22Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+12
99.7%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 12 yds to the Kans 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-11
99.7%
Ryan Willis pass intercepted Orion Stewart return for a loss of 11 yards to the Bayl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 3:00100% → 100%
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
99.7%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+7
99.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 7 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q3 13:22
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+3
99.7%
Terence Williams run for 3 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
99.7%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-5
99.7%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 36Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 13
OWN 36
0
99.7%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 13
OWN 36
+44
99.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 44 yds to the Kans 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
99.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Jared Atkinson for 5 yds to the Kans 15Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+4
99.8%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the Kans 11Similar
Q3 11:18
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+4
99.8%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the Kans 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.8%
Terence Williams 7 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:070% → 0%
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.9%
Ke'aun Kinner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kans 23Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:09
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Ryan Willis run for no gain to the Kans 23Similar
Q3 9:46
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Cole Moos punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23MISSED FG
10 plays · 18 yds · 3:12100% → 100%
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
50
+7
99.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Blake Lynch for 7 yds to the Kans 43Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+5
99.8%
JaMycal Hasty run for 5 yds to the Kans 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
99.8%
Zach Smith run for no gain to the Kans 38Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+8
99.8%
Zach Smith run for 8 yds to the Kans 30Similar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+1
99.8%
JaMycal Hasty run for 1 yd to the Kans 29Similar
Q3 7:38
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+3
99.8%
JaMycal Hasty run for 3 yds to the Kans 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.8%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+2
99.8%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the Kans 24Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 8
OPP 24
-8
99.9%
Zach Smith sacked by Dorance Armstrong Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the Kans 32Similar
Q3 6:11
4TH & 16
OPP 32
+48
99.8%
Drew Galitz 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 24TD
13 plays · 68 yds · 4:300% → 0%
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
99.9%
Khalil Herbert run for 9 yds to the Kans 41Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 1
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Carter Stanley run for no gain to the Kans 41Similar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+3
99.9%
Khalil Herbert run for 3 yds to the Kans 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
99.9%
Khalil Herbert run for 9 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+1
99.9%
Khalil Herbert run for 1 yd to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
99.9%
Khalil Herbert run for 3 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+34
99.9%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 34 yds to the Bayl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
99.9%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 2 yds to the Bayl 7Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.9%
Carter Stanley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
99.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (5 Yards) to the Bayl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.9%
Maciah Long run for no gain to the Bayl 2Similar
Q3 1:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.9%
Carter Stanley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.8%
Khalil Herbert 2 Yd Run (Matthew Wyman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 25PUNT
10 plays · 37 yds · 3:14100% → 100%
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.9%
JaMycal Hasty run for 15 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
99.9%
Wyatt Schrepfer run for 6 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q3 0:24
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+14
99.9%
Wyatt Schrepfer run for 14 yds to the Kans 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
99.9%
JaMycal Hasty run for 8 yds to the Kans 32Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 2
OPP 32
-5
99.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Kans 37Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 7
OPP 37
-5
99.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Kans 42Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 12
OPP 42
0
99.9%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 12
OPP 42
+4
99.9%
Blake Lynch run for 4 yds to the Kans 38Similar
Q4 13:00
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
99.9%
Zach Smith punt for 36 yds, downed at the Kans 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:200% → 0%
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
99.9%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 3 yds to the Kans 5Similar
Q4 12:23
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+1
99.9%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 1 yd to the Kans 6Similar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 6
OWN 6
0
99.9%
Carter Stanley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:29
4TH & 6
OWN 6
0
99.9%
Cole Moos punt for 73 yds, downed at the Bayl 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 27FUMBLE
3 plays · 10 yds · 1:11100% → 100%
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
99.9%
Wyatt Schrepfer run for 12 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
99.9%
Wyatt Schrepfer run for 1 yd to the Bayl 34Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 9
OWN 34
-3
99.9%
Wyatt Schrepfer run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 31 Wyatt Schrepfer fumbled, recovered by KansSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 28INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:580% → 0%
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
99.9%
Carter Stanley pass complete to LaQuvionte Gonzalez for 5 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 5
OPP 26
0
99.9%
Khalil Herbert run for no gain to the Bayl 26Similar
Q4 9:08
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+65
99.9%
Carter Stanley pass intercepted Clay Johnston return for 65 yds to the Kans 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 29DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:07100% → 100%
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
99.9%
Wyatt Schrepfer run for 2 yds to the Kans 11Similar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+4
99.9%
Wyatt Schrepfer run for 4 yds to the Kans 7Similar
Q4 7:29
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+3
99.9%
Wyatt Schrepfer run for 3 yds to the Kans 4Similar
Q4 6:55
4TH & 1
OPP 4
0
99.9%
Wyatt Schrepfer run for no gain to the Kans 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 30PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:150% → 0%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-2
100.0%
Carter Stanley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kans 2Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 12
OWN 2
+2
100.0%
Khalil Herbert run for 2 yds to the Kans 4Similar
Q4 5:39
3RD & 10
OWN 4
0
100.0%
Carter Stanley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:25
4TH & 10
OWN 4
+13
100.0%
Cole Moos punt for 52 yds , Trevor White returns for 13 yds to the Kans 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 31PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:30100% → 100%
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-8
100.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (-8 Yards) to the Bayl 49Similar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 18
OWN 49
+1
100.0%
Dwyer Bucey run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 17
50
+5
100.0%
Preston Heard run for 5 yds to the Kans 45Similar
Q4 3:19
3RD & 12
OPP 45
+3
100.0%
Dwyer Bucey run for 3 yds to the Kans 42Similar
Q4 2:49
4TH & 9
OPP 42
0
100.0%
Preston Heard punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kans 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 32END OF GAME
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:290% → 0%
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
100.0%
Ke'aun Kinner run for 6 yds to the Kans 13Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 4
OWN 13
0
100.0%
Ke'aun Kinner run for no gain to the Kans 13Similar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 4
OWN 13
+4
100.0%
Carter Stanley run for 4 yds to the Kans 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
100.0%
Carter Stanley pass complete to Chase Harrell for 6 yds to the Kans 23Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 4
OWN 23
-2
100.0%
Ke'aun Kinner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kans 21Similar
Q4 0:11
3RD & 6
OWN 21
-3
100.0%
Carter Stanley sacked by Jordan Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the Kans 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:26
KD Cannon 59 Yd pass from Seth Russell (Chris Callahan Kick)
+1.1
TD · Q1 2:47
Seth Russell 26 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)
+0.6
TD · Q1 8:40
Ryan Reid 64 Yd Interception Return (Chris Callahan Kick)
+0.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com