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BAY

Baylor 45 at Iowa State 42

ISU
2016 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2016 · Jack Trice Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:57 · Drew Galitz punt for 41 yds , Deshaunte Jones returns for 1 yd to the IowSt 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 148Pregame prior−13.5Home team on offense+16.7Score differential+5.3Garbage-time factor+3.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.3Time remaining+1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:48: Seth Russell pass complete to Chris Platt for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +18.1 pts (now 54%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:31: Joel Lanning pass complete to Carson Epps for 46 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK) — ISU win probability +16.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:40: Seth Russell run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +19.4 pts (now 38%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:27: Terence Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +37.0 pts (now 66%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Chris Callahan 19 yd FG GOOD — BAY win probability +34.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4BAY made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 13:17BAY 4th & 13 at BAY 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:27BAY 4th & 8 at ISU 30, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    79.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    78.9%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:12BAY 4th & 3 at ISU 7, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.9%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    70.3%−0.6
    91% to make
    Punt
    66.1%−4.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:04ISU 4th & 1 at ISU 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    34.3%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q3 1:57BAY 4th & 14 at BAY 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−2.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  6. Q4 13:43ISU 4th & 9 at ISU 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−1.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%
    average punt
  7. Q4 10:07ISU 4th & 3 at ISU 17, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q4 4:54ISU 4th & 11 at ISU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−2.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%
    average punt
  9. Q4 0:00BAY 4th & 2 at ISU 2, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 6.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.3%−6.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    24.1%−39.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6BAY made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 9:36ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:06ISU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:12BAY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:40ISU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:28BAY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:48ISU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:53BAY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:44ISU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 6:48BAY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 4:31ISU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 11:40BAY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.2%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 6:27BAY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 8 yds · 1:3587% → 87%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
12.7%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q1 14:33
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
12.9%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q1 14:17
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
13.0%
Seth Russell pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 5 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
13.1%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-5
13.2%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Chris Platt) to the Bayl 33Similar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 13
OWN 33
0
13.3%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
Q1 13:26
3RD & 13
OWN 33
0
13.4%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
Q1 13:17
4TH & 13
OWN 33
0
13.5%
Drew Galitz punt for 48 yds , Trever Ryen returns for no gain to the IowSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 81 yds · 3:2414% → 17%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
13.6%
Mike Warren run for 2 yds to the IowSt 21Similar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+4
13.8%
Joel Lanning run for 4 yds to the IowSt 25Similar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+6
13.9%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Carson Epps for 6 yds to the IowSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
14.2%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Trever Ryen for 7 yds to the IowSt 38Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+11
14.6%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 11 yds to the IowSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
14.9%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+10
15.2%
Mike Warren run for 10 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+43
16.5%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 43 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3DOWNS
15 plays · 45 yds · 2:4884% → 82%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
16.5%
Shock Linwood run for 6 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
16.6%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q1 8:54
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
16.7%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
16.9%
Seth Russell run for 3 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
17.0%
Seth Russell pass complete to JaMycal Hasty for no gain to the Bayl 39Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+29
17.0%
Lynx Hawthorne run for 14 yds to the IOWAST 47 for a 1ST down IOWA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the IowSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
16.9%
Seth Russell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+4
17.0%
JaMycal Hasty run for 4 yds to the IowSt 28Similar
Q1 7:14
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+3
17.4%
Seth Russell run for 3 yds to the IowSt 25Similar
Q1 7:00
4TH & 3
OPP 25
-10
17.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (Blake Blackmar) to the IowSt 35Similar
Q1 6:34
4TH & 13
OPP 35
+5
18.8%
IOWA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jhaustin Thomas) to the IowSt 30Similar
Q1 6:27
4TH & 8
OPP 30
0
18.5%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Blake LynchSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:1319% → 27%
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
18.9%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+14
19.6%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Allen Lazard for 14 yds to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
20.2%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 7
50
-5
20.8%
IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (Seth Nerness) to the IowSt 45Similar
Q1 4:21
2ND & 12
OWN 45
-10
20.9%
IOWA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Brian Bobek) to the IowSt 35Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 22
OWN 35
+44
20.9%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Trever Ryen for 44 yds to the Bayl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
21.9%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Trever Ryen for 9 yds to the Bayl 12Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+9
22.1%
Mike Warren run for 9 yds to the Bayl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
22.4%
Mike Warren run for 2 yds to the Bayl 1Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
26.6%
Mike Warren run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 1:4774% → 78%
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+46
25.7%
Seth Russell pass complete to Chris Platt for 46 yds to the IowSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-15
24.2%
BAYLOR Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the IowSt 44Similar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
25.2%
Shock Linwood run for 9 yds to the IowSt 35Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+6
24.5%
Shock Linwood run for 6 yds to the IowSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
24.7%
Seth Russell run for no gain to the IowSt 29Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+15
25.2%
IOWA ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Demond Tucker) to the IowSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
25.2%
Terence Williams run for 5 yds to the IowSt 9Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 5
OPP 9
-15
25.3%
BAYLOR Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Mo Porter) to the IowSt 24Similar
Q1 1:27
2ND & 20
OPP 24
0
26.5%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q1 1:18
3RD & 20
OPP 24
+17
27.3%
Seth Russell run for 17 yds to the IowSt 7Similar
Q1 1:12
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+7
22.3%
Terence Williams run for 7 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6TD
15 plays · 78 yds · 4:1623% → 39%
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
22.8%
Joel Lanning run for 4 yds to the IowSt 26Similar
Q1 0:28
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+9
23.3%
Mike Warren run for 9 yds to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
23.6%
Mike Warren run for 7 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
24.8%
Mike Warren run for 2 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
Q2 14:24
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+7
24.8%
Mike Warren run for 7 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
25.8%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
26.7%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Mike WarrenSimilar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+8
26.4%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Allen Lazard for 8 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
27.4%
Mike Warren run for 9 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+6
27.8%
Joel Lanning run for 6 yds to the Bayl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
28.9%
David Montgomery run for 7 yds to the Bayl 16Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+7
29.3%
David Montgomery run for 7 yds to the Bayl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
38.8%
David Montgomery run for 9 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7TD
6 plays · 85 yds · 1:0264% → 73%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
36.3%
Shock Linwood run for 13 yds to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+57
36.5%
Seth Russell pass complete to Blake Lynch for 57 yds to the IowSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
34.5%
Seth Russell run for 7 yds to the IowSt 8Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+6
34.6%
Shock Linwood run for 6 yds to the IowSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
26.8%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8TD
21 plays · 75 yds · 7:3029% → 53%
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
29.3%
Joel Lanning run for 4 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
30.1%
Mike Warren run for 8 yds to the IowSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
31.3%
David Montgomery run for 3 yds to the IowSt 40Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+6
32.3%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 6 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q2 8:34
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
32.3%
David Montgomery run for no gain to the IowSt 46Similar
Q2 8:04
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+13
32.8%
Mike Warren run for 13 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-15
34.8%
IOWA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Allen Lazard) to the IowSt 44Similar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
34.8%
Joel Lanning run for 7 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+2
35.9%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 2 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+6
35.9%
Mike Warren run for 6 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
37.0%
Mike Warren run for 2 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+8
39.0%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Trever Ryen for 8 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
40.1%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Offside (Greg Roberts) to the Bayl 26Similar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 5
OPP 26
+6
39.6%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Hakeem Butler for 6 yds to the Bayl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
40.6%
Mike Warren run for 2 yds to the Bayl 18Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+14
40.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Chance Waz) to the Bayl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
40.9%
IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (Nick Fett) to the Bayl 9Similar
Q2 4:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
41.0%
Mike Warren run for 4 yds to the Bayl 5Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
41.9%
Mike Warren run for 2 yds to the Bayl 3Similar
Q2 2:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
53.4%
Joel Lanning run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3948% → 62%
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+59
51.7%
Shock Linwood run for 59 yds to the IowSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
48.4%
Seth Russell run for no gain to the IowSt 16Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+11
46.9%
Seth Russell run for 11 yds to the IowSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
47.1%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
Q2 1:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
47.4%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the IowSt 3Similar
Q2 0:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
38.4%
Seth Russell run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · -8 yds · 0:2042% → 42%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-4
42.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the IowSt 22Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 14
OWN 22
-4
42.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the IowSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 11TD
15 plays · 55 yds · 5:0046% → 70%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
45.8%
Mike Warren run for 4 yds to the IowSt 49Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+2
46.6%
Joel Lanning run for 2 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+8
46.5%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Carson Epps for 8 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
48.3%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Trever Ryen for 7 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+5
48.9%
Joel Lanning run for 5 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
49.8%
Mike Warren run for no gain to the Bayl 29Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
51.3%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Allen LazardSimilar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+11
50.0%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Allen Lazard for 11 yds to the Bayl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
52.0%
Mike Warren run for 4 yds to the Bayl 14Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+6
52.8%
Joel Lanning run for 6 yds to the Bayl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
53.3%
Mike Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 9Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
55.9%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Dondre DaleySimilar
Q3 9:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
54.6%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Holding (Jameson Houston) to the Bayl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
69.6%
Mike Warren run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5234% → 54%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
65.8%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 24Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+15
66.9%
Seth Russell pass complete to Blake Lynch for 15 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
65.1%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
65.8%
Seth Russell pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 6 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+31
65.0%
Shock Linwood run for 31 yds to the IowSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
62.3%
Seth Russell run for no gain to the IowSt 24Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+15
64.7%
Terence Williams run for 15 yds to the IowSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
64.4%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the IowSt 5Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
46.3%
Seth Russell pass complete to Chris Platt for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 13TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1058% → 79%
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
58.4%
Mike Warren run for 3 yds to the IowSt 28Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+25
59.4%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Dondre Daley for 25 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
62.9%
Mike Warren run for 1 yd to the Bayl 46Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+5
63.6%
Mike Warren run for 5 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q3 5:01
3RD & 4
OPP 41
-5
62.6%
IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (Carson Epps) to the Bayl 46Similar
Q3 4:31
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+46
78.9%
Joel Lanning pass complete to Carson Epps for 46 yds for a TD, (Cole Netten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 2:1825% → 21%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
75.0%
Shock Linwood run for 6 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
74.7%
Shock Linwood run for 9 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
74.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 35Similar
Q3 3:27
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+3
77.2%
Seth Russell run for 3 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 12
OWN 38
-1
77.8%
Seth Russell pass complete to Terence Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 37Similar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 13
OWN 37
-1
78.3%
Seth Russell sacked by Willie Harvey for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 36Similar
Q3 1:57
4TH & 14
OWN 36
+1
78.9%
Drew Galitz punt for 41 yds , Deshaunte Jones returns for 1 yd to the IowSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:4285% → 91%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
85.1%
Mike Warren run for 4 yds to the IowSt 28Similar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+1
85.7%
Mike Warren run for 1 yd to the IowSt 29Similar
Q3 0:15
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+6
86.2%
Joel Lanning run for 6 yds to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
87.3%
Joel Lanning run for 8 yds to the IowSt 43Similar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 2
OWN 43
-7
89.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the IowSt 36Similar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
91.7%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Carson EppsSimilar
Q4 13:43
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
90.9%
Colin Downing punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 2:0017% → 38%
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
83.5%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+15
83.7%
Shock Linwood run for 15 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+33
82.7%
Terence Williams run for 33 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
81.3%
BAYLOR Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the IowSt 43Similar
Q4 12:49
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+14
81.8%
Shock Linwood run for 14 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+14
79.8%
Seth Russell pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 14 yds to the IowSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
80.6%
Terence Williams run for 5 yds to the IowSt 10Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+9
81.6%
Seth Russell run for 9 yds to the IowSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.1%
Seth Russell run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1277% → 77%
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
76.7%
Joel Lanning run for 4 yds to the IowSt 14Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+3
77.6%
Joel Lanning run for 3 yds to the IowSt 17Similar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 3
OWN 17
0
77.2%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Carson EppsSimilar
Q4 10:07
4TH & 3
OWN 17
0
76.6%
Colin Downing punt for 67 yds, downed at the Bayl 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18TD
10 plays · 84 yds · 3:2728% → 66%
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
72.5%
Seth Russell pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 9 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q4 9:38
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+21
71.0%
Shock Linwood run for 21 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
69.0%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+5
69.0%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q4 8:24
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+3
69.1%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the IowSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
70.6%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the IowSt 41Similar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+7
73.6%
Terence Williams run for 7 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+28
73.2%
Terence Williams run for 28 yds to the IowSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
71.3%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the IowSt 2Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
34.3%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1056% → 49%
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
50
+4
56.3%
Mike Warren run for 4 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
57.0%
Joel Lanning pass incomplete to Mike WarrenSimilar
Q4 5:12
3RD & 6
OPP 46
-5
55.8%
Joel Lanning sacked by Ira Lewis for a loss of 5 yards to the IowSt 49Similar
Q4 4:54
4TH & 11
OWN 49
0
49.2%
Colin Downing punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20END OF GAME
20 plays · 83 yds · 4:4155% → 94%
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
44.7%
Shock Linwood run for 7 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+2
43.2%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q4 4:05
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+3
44.1%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+16
44.5%
Seth Russell run for 16 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
40.5%
Seth Russell pass complete to Blake Lynch for 8 yds to the IowSt 49Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+4
38.4%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the IowSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-3
38.8%
Seth Russell run for a loss of 3 yards to the IowSt 48Similar
Q4 2:14
2ND & 13
OPP 48
+14
42.2%
Seth Russell pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 14 yds to the IowSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
36.1%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Blake LynchSimilar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+9
36.4%
Seth Russell run for 9 yds to the IowSt 25Similar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+2
37.3%
Seth Russell run for 2 yds to the IowSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
35.6%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Blake LynchSimilar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+9
36.7%
Seth Russell run for 9 yds to the IowSt 14Similar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+5
38.0%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the IowSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
36.2%
Seth Russell run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 10Similar
Q4 0:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
36.3%
Shock Linwood run for 6 yds to the IowSt 4Similar
Q4 0:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
38.8%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the IowSt 2Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
5.7%
Chris Callahan 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:27
Terence Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
-37
FG · Q4 0:00
Chris Callahan 19 yd FG GOOD
-34.4
TD · Q4 11:40
Seth Russell run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
-19.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com