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OKST

Oklahoma State 24 at Baylor 35

BAY
2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadOKST aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreOKST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:24 · Seth Russell punt for 42 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 105Pregame prior+13.4Home team on offense+7.5Garbage-time factor+1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5Score differential+1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:32: Rennie Childs 3 Yd Run (Ben Grogan Kick) — OKST win probability +10.4 pts (now 36%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:41: Ishmael Zamora 38 Yd pass from Seth Russell (Connor Martin Kick) — BAY win probability +7.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:46: Rennie Childs 3 Yd Run (Ben Grogan Kick) — OKST win probability +17.8 pts (now 43%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:56: Chris Platt 89 Yd pass from Seth Russell (Connor Martin Kick) — BAY win probability +15.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:14: Chris Platt 15 Yd pass from Seth Russell (Connor Martin Kick) — BAY win probability +8.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 5 of 6OKST made the numbers' call on 3 of 8
  1. Q1 9:48OKST 4th & 2 at OKST 40, down 7
    Close callPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:27BAY 4th & 4 at OKST 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.1%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    74.1%−<0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    73.2%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:16OKST 4th & 2 at BAY 27, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.1%−0.4
    62% to make
    Punt
    27.2%−2.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:31BAY 4th & 14 at BAY 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−2.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:30OKST 4th & 2 at OKST 29, down 7
    Close callPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:24BAY 4th & 8 at OKST 42, up 7
    Close callPunted · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    77.6%
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.9%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 2:13OKST 4th & 3 at BAY 11, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.5%−1.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    12.2%−11.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:46BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 24, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    71.2%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:59OKST 4th & 2 at BAY 4, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.9%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    28.8%−2.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    16.4%−14.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:01BAY 4th & 4 at BAY 24, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−0.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:56OKST 4th & 7 at OKST 35, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.5%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:36OKST 4th & 16 at OKST 40, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:02BAY 4th & 12 at BAY 46, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:24OKST 4th & 6 at BAY 47, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.7%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 4 of 5OKST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 13:22BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:44OKST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:28BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:32OKST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:41BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:46OKST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:56BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:14BAY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:2776% → 76%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
75.7%
Seth Russell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 24Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
75.6%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q1 14:30
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+36
75.6%
Seth Russell pass complete to Jordan Feuerbacher for 36 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
75.6%
Terence Williams run for 5 yds to the OKSt 35Similar
Q1 13:57
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+7
75.6%
Terence Williams run for 7 yds to the OKSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
75.6%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OKSt 33Similar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+10
75.5%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 10 yds to the OKSt 23Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+23
76.0%
Terence Williams 23 Yd Run (Connor Martin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 2FUMBLE
9 plays · 22 yds · 3:1724% → 24%
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-3
75.8%
Justice Hill run for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 15Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 13
OWN 15
+2
75.9%
Rennie Childs run for 2 yds to the OKSt 17Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 11
OWN 17
+15
76.0%
Rudolph, Mason pass incomplete to Seales, Jhajuan, PENALTY BAYLOR pass interference 15 yards to the OKLAST32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAST.Similar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
75.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 2 yds to the OKSt 34Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 8
OWN 34
-10
75.8%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the OKSt 24Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 18
OWN 24
+10
75.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 10 yds to the OKSt 34Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+6
76.0%
Mason Rudolph run for 6 yds to the OKSt 40Similar
Q1 9:48
4TH & 2
OWN 40
+1
75.9%
Zach Sinor punt for 56 yds , Tony Nicholson returns for 1 yd to the Bayl 5 Tony Nicholson fumbled, recovered by OKSt Tanner MorganSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 3TD
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 9:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
73.9%
Justice Hill 5 Yd Run (Ben Grogan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4DOWNS
13 plays · 68 yds · 2:0275% → 74%
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
74.5%
Seth Russell pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 8 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+7
74.7%
Seth Russell pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 7 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
74.6%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+29
74.4%
Seth Russell run for 29 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
74.9%
Terence Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 36Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+9
74.7%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 9 yds to the OKSt 27Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+7
74.6%
Seth Russell pass complete to Blake Lynch for 7 yds to the OKSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
74.9%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Blake LynchSimilar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
74.8%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 10
OPP 20
-5
74.6%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OKSt 25Similar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 15
OPP 25
+11
74.1%
Seth Russell pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 11 yds to the OKSt 14Similar
Q1 7:27
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+3
74.2%
Terence Williams run for 3 yds to the OKSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 5FUMBLE
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:3526% → 27%
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
73.8%
Rennie Childs run for 4 yds to the OKSt 15Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+3
73.7%
Rennie Childs run for 3 yds to the OKSt 18Similar
Q1 6:44
3RD & 3
OWN 18
+6
73.9%
Mason Rudolph run for 6 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
73.6%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 16 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
73.0%
Justice Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 38Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 12
OWN 38
-7
73.2%
Mason Rudolph sacked by K.J. Smith for a loss of 7 yards to the OKSt 33 Mason Rudolph fumbled, recovered by Bayl Patrick Levels , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:3674% → 74%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
74.4%
Seth Russell pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 7 yds to the OKSt 26Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+1
74.4%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the OKSt 25Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+3
74.1%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the OKSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
74.4%
Seth Russell pass intercepted Jordan Burton return for no gain to the OKSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 7MISSED FG
14 plays · 60 yds · 5:2927% → 29%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
73.1%
Rennie Childs run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 11Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 12
OWN 11
+13
73.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 13 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
72.7%
Rennie Childs run for 6 yds to the OKSt 30Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+3
72.2%
Rennie Childs run for 3 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q1 2:38
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+5
71.8%
Mason Rudolph run for 5 yds to the OKSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
71.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Blake Jarwin for 14 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
70.7%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Blake JarwinSimilar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+9
70.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 9 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q1 1:27
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+4
70.6%
Justice Hill run for 4 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
70.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Zac Veatch for 5 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 30
-1
69.5%
Justice Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 31Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+4
70.1%
Justice Hill run for 4 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q2 14:16
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+44
70.8%
Ben Grogan 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 1:3773% → 78%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
72.8%
JaMycal Hasty run for 13 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
73.4%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
73.4%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Ishmael ZamoraSimilar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+10
72.6%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the OKSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
73.9%
JaMycal Hasty run for 3 yds to the OKSt 45Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+4
73.9%
JaMycal Hasty run for 4 yds to the OKSt 41Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+3
73.7%
JaMycal Hasty run for 3 yds to the OKSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
73.8%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+38
78.1%
Ishmael Zamora 38 Yd pass from Seth Russell (Connor Martin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 9TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:3823% → 36%
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
76.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Zac Veatch for 15 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
76.1%
Barry Sanders run for 3 yds to the OKSt 43Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
75.8%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+9
76.3%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Lacy for 9 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
75.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Lacy for 8 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 2
OPP 40
0
75.3%
Rennie Childs run for no gain to the Bayl 40Similar
Q2 9:41
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+11
75.6%
Jeff Carr run for 11 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
74.7%
Justice Hill run for 5 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+6
74.7%
Justice Hill run for 6 yds to the Bayl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
75.0%
Rennie Childs run for 1 yd to the Bayl 17Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 9
OPP 17
-3
75.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Barry Sanders for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 20Similar
Q2 6:36
3RD & 12
OPP 20
+14
76.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 14 yds to the Bayl 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
74.9%
Rennie Childs run for 3 yds to the Bayl 3Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
64.5%
Rennie Childs 3 Yd Run (Ben Grogan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:5171% → 69%
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
70.5%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the Bayl 18Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 8
OWN 18
-6
70.3%
Seth Russell sacked by Vincent Taylor for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 12Similar
Q2 4:37
3RD & 14
OWN 12
0
69.3%
Seth Russell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:31
4TH & 14
OWN 12
0
68.7%
Drew Galitz punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Barry Sanders at the OKSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 11FUMBLE
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:2435% → 36%
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
65.1%
Justice Hill run for 9 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+3
64.3%
Justice Hill run for 3 yds to the Bayl 46 Justice Hill fumbled, recovered by Bayl Verkedric VaughnsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12TD
4 plays · 54 yds · 0:5972% → 80%
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
72.1%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 6
50
+13
72.4%
Seth Russell run for 13 yds to the OKSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
72.2%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 38Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+38
79.9%
Ishmael Zamora 38 Yd pass from Seth Russell (Connor Martin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:5921% → 20%
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
79.3%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jhajuan SealesSimilar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+7
79.5%
Barry Sanders run for 7 yds to the OKSt 28Similar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+1
79.0%
Rennie Childs run for 1 yd to the OKSt 29Similar
Q2 1:30
4TH & 2
OWN 29
0
79.6%
Zach Sinor punt for 38 yds, downed at the Bayl 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:5879% → 78%
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
78.7%
Seth Russell run for 13 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
79.9%
Seth Russell pass complete to Chris Platt for 10 yds to the OKSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
80.2%
Terence Williams run for 1 yd to the OKSt 43Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
79.4%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+1
78.8%
JaMycal Hasty run for 1 yd to the OKSt 42Similar
Q2 0:24
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
77.5%
Seth Russell punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
78.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 16TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 7:0723% → 43%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.1%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
77.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 7 yds to the OKSt 32Similar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
77.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 7 yds to the OKSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
76.0%
Rennie Childs run for 3 yds to the OKSt 42Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+6
75.3%
Rennie Childs run for 6 yds to the OKSt 48Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+3
75.1%
Justice Hill run for 3 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
74.6%
Justice Hill run for 1 yd to the Bayl 48Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
74.7%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jalen McCleskeySimilar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+13
75.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 13 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
73.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 4 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
72.8%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Barry SandersSimilar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+16
74.8%
Rennie Childs run for 1 yd to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Bayl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
72.8%
Justice Hill run for 2 yds to the Bayl 13Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 8
OPP 13
-2
72.7%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Patrick Levels for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 15Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+12
74.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 12 yds to the Bayl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
57.0%
Rennie Childs 3 Yd Run (Ben Grogan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17TD
3 plays · 89 yds · 0:3065% → 81%
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
65.0%
Terence Williams run for no gain to the Bayl 11Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+89
80.5%
Chris Platt 89 Yd pass from Seth Russell (Connor Martin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 18FG
14 plays · 64 yds · 4:3723% → 33%
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
77.3%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-12 Yards) to the OKSt 13Similar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 22
OWN 13
0
77.5%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Chris LacySimilar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+2
77.8%
Rennie Childs run for 2 yds to the OKSt 15Similar
Q3 5:33
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+21
78.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 21 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+21
76.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 21 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
74.8%
Justice Hill run for 10 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
72.1%
Dillon Stoner pass incomplete to Jalen McCleskeySimilar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+15
72.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Lacy for 15 yds to the Bayl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
71.4%
Jeff Carr run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 19Similar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 11
OPP 19
+6
72.2%
Justice Hill run for 6 yds to the Bayl 13Similar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+2
73.3%
Justice Hill run for 2 yds to the Bayl 11Similar
Q3 2:13
4TH & 3
OPP 11
+28
67.4%
Ben Grogan 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1074% → 72%
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
73.7%
Seth Russell run for 4 yds to the Bayl 19Similar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+4
73.6%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+1
72.9%
Terence Williams run for 1 yd to the Bayl 24Similar
Q3 0:46
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
71.6%
Terence Williams run for no gain to the Bayl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:2637% → 34%
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
63.2%
Rennie Childs run for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 29Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 15
OPP 29
-8
66.2%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Aiavion Edwards for a loss of 8 yards to the Bayl 37Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 23
OPP 37
+25
69.5%
Mason Rudolph run for 25 yds to the Bayl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-4
62.8%
Barry Sanders run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 16Similar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 14
OPP 16
0
65.1%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q4 13:29
3RD & 14
OPP 16
+12
67.9%
Mason Rudolph run for 12 yds to the Bayl 4Similar
Q4 12:59
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+1
65.9%
Rennie Childs run for 1 yd to the Bayl 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:4474% → 72%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
73.7%
JaMycal Hasty run for 1 yd to the Bayl 4Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+14
73.3%
Seth Russell pass complete to Jordan Feuerbacher for 14 yds to the Bayl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
74.8%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Quan JonesSimilar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+4
74.4%
Seth Russell run for 4 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+2
72.9%
JaMycal Hasty run for 2 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q4 11:01
4TH & 4
OWN 24
0
71.7%
Drew Galitz punt for 53 yds, downed at the OKSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 22FUMBLE
6 plays · 76 yds · 1:4330% → 40%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
69.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Zac Veatch for 6 yds to the OKSt 29Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+7
67.9%
Justice Hill run for 7 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
67.8%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+12
68.0%
Justice Hill run for 12 yds to the OKSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+38
64.0%
Justice Hill run for 38 yds to the Bayl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
60.0%
Justice Hill run for 13 yds to the Bayl 1 Justice Hill fumbled, recovered by Bayl Travon BlanchardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23TD
9 plays · 99 yds · 3:4473% → 95%
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
72.9%
Seth Russell run for 1 yd to the Bayl 2Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+32
73.2%
Seth Russell pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 32 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
77.4%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+3
79.5%
Terence Williams run for 3 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+34
80.3%
Seth Russell pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 34 yds to the OKSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+23
83.3%
Seth Russell pass complete to Terence Williams for 23 yds to the OKSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
83.8%
Seth Russell run for 3 yds to the OKSt 1Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-14
86.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 14 yards to the OKSt 15 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Bayl Seth RussellSimilar
Q4 5:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
95.1%
Chris Platt 15 Yd pass from Seth Russell (Connor Martin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 24INT
10 plays · 25 yds · 2:198% → 5%
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+17
92.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Rennie Childs for 17 yds to the OKSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
91.4%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Barry SandersSimilar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
92.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Barry Sanders for 3 yds to the OKSt 35Similar
Q4 4:02
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
92.6%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jhajuan SealesSimilar
Q4 3:56
4TH & 7
OWN 35
+11
93.6%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 11 yds to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
93.1%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-6
93.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Dillon Stoner for a loss of 6 yards to the OKSt 40Similar
Q4 2:57
3RD & 16
OWN 40
0
94.6%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:36
4TH & 16
OWN 40
+25
95.0%
Mason Rudolph pass intercepted Orion Stewart return for 25 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · -2 yds · 0:2697% → 97%
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
96.5%
JaMycal Hasty run for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 43Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 15
OWN 43
-5
96.7%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 38Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 20
OWN 38
+5
96.7%
Seth Russell run for 5 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 15
OWN 43
+3
97.1%
JaMycal Hasty run for 3 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q4 2:02
4TH & 12
OWN 46
0
97.4%
Drew Galitz punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Barry Sanders at the OKSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 26END OF GAME
11 plays · 56 yds · 1:543% → 4%
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
97.5%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+11
97.5%
Barry Sanders run for 11 yds to the OKSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
97.3%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
97.5%
Barry Sanders run for 3 yds to the OKSt 34Similar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+15
97.5%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the OKSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
97.2%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Illegal Touching ( Yards) to the OKSt 49Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
97.3%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Chris LacySimilar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+4
97.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Rennie Childs for 4 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q4 0:24
4TH & 6
OPP 47
+32
97.3%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 32 yds to the Bayl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
96.2%
Mason Rudolph pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-9
96.2%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Xavier Jones for a loss of 9 yards to the Bayl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:46
Rennie Childs 3 Yd Run (Ben Grogan Kick)
-17.8
TD · Q3 6:56
Chris Platt 89 Yd pass from Seth Russell (Connor Martin Kick)
+15.5
TD · Q2 5:32
Rennie Childs 3 Yd Run (Ben Grogan Kick)
-10.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com