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SMU

SMU 13 at Baylor 40

BAY
2016 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2016 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:40 · Drew Galitz punt for 60 yds , James Proche returns for 6 yds to the SMU 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 175Pregame prior+19.3Home team on offense+18.9Score differential+9.1Garbage-time factor+7.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.8Blowout margin−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:02: Seth Russell pass complete to Blake Lynch for 31 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +4.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:43: Seth Russell run for 19 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +4.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:55: Ben Hicks pass intercepted for a TD Orion Stewart return for 33 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan PAT MISSED) — BAY win probability +4.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:40: Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 20 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK) — SMU win probability +5.4 pts (now 7%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:45: Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 32 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +2.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 10 of 12SMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00SMU 4th & 7 at BAY 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    4.3%−<0.1
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:02BAY 4th & 10 at BAY 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:12SMU 4th & 7 at BAY 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:12BAY 4th & 5 at BAY 49, down 3
    Close callPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:39SMU 4th & 2 at BAY 8, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.2%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:51BAY 4th & 8 at SMU 18, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    88.5%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:51SMU 4th & 8 at BAY 34, up 3
    Close callPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    10.3%−<0.1
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:00BAY 4th & 9 at BAY 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:07SMU 4th & 12 at SMU 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:32BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    86.0%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q2 7:32BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    86.5%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q2 7:32BAY 4th & 3 at SMU 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    86.9%−0.7
    42% to make
    Punt
    86.7%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:15BAY 4th & 6 at SMU 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.8%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.2%
    74% to make
    Punt
    79.8%−3.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:54SMU 4th & 3 at BAY 47, down 7
    Close callPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:40BAY 4th & 8 at BAY 24, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:30SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 22, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
  17. Q3 0:30BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 40, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    93.5%−1.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:45SMU 4th & 7 at SMU 31, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:41BAY 4th & 3 at SMU 3, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    98.9%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    97.8%−1.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:33SMU 4th & 6 at SMU 5, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:16SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 25, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:50BAY 4th & 4 at midfield, up 27
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
  23. Q4 2:19SMU 4th & 4 at SMU 9, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5SMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q3 12:02BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 5:43BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:55BAY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:40SMU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:45BAY Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:16BAY Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 42 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+39
95.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 39 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
95.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 3 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
95.6%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
95.6%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 35
0
95.6%
Jamie Sackville punt for 14 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
95.5%
Seth Russell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:02
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+8
95.5%
Seth Russell pass complete to Chris Platt for 8 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q1 14:02
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+8
95.5%
Seth Russell run for 8 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
95.5%
Lynx Hawthorne run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 33Similar
Q1 14:02
2ND & 14
OWN 33
0
95.5%
Shock Linwood run for no gain to the Bayl 33Similar
Q1 14:02
3RD & 14
OWN 33
+4
95.4%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q1 14:02
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
95.4%
Drew Galitz punt for 37 yds, downed at the SMU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3FG
9 plays · 67 yds · 2:315% → 6%
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+19
95.0%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 19 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
94.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 8 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+21
94.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 21 yds to the Bayl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
94.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 3 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+14
94.9%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 5 yds to the Bayl 18 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, personal foul (Raaquan Davis) to the Bayl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
94.9%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q1 9:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
94.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds to the Bayl 7Similar
Q1 9:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
94.5%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James Proche SMU Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 9:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
94.3%
Josh Williams 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
94.3%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 11 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
94.4%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+5
94.4%
Seth Russell pass complete to Lynx Hawthorne for 5 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q1 9:12
3RD & 5
OWN 49
0
94.4%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q1 9:12
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
94.3%
Drew Galitz punt for 43 yds, fair catch by James Proche at the SMU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5FG
14 plays · 84 yds · 4:396% → 8%
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
94.1%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+2
94.1%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the SMU 12Similar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 6
OWN 12
+10
94.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 10 yds to the SMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
94.1%
Ben Hicks run for 2 yds to the SMU 24Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
94.1%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland Sutton, broken up by Davion HallSimilar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+20
94.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 20 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
93.3%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+13
93.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Braeden West for 13 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+27
93.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 27 yds to the Bayl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
93.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 4 yds to the Bayl 12Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+4
93.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 4 yds to the Bayl 8Similar
Q1 6:21
3RD & 2
OPP 8
0
93.2%
Braeden West run for no gain to the Bayl 8Similar
Q1 3:39
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+26
91.7%
Josh Williams 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6FG
21 plays · 55 yds · 4:4892% → 91%
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
92.0%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+7
92.0%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 7 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+3
92.1%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
92.1%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 5 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+12
92.3%
Shock Linwood run for 12 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
92.4%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Chris Platt, broken up by Darrion MillinesSimilar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-5
92.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 49Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 15
OPP 49
0
92.2%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 15
OPP 49
0
92.0%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Chris Platt, broken up by Jackson MitchellSimilar
Q1 3:39
4TH & 15
OPP 49
+15
91.8%
Galitz,Drew punt 19 yards to the SMU30, out-of-bounds, PENALTY SMU personal foul (ROBERTS, Keyfer) 15 yards to the SMU34, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
92.6%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 6
OPP 30
-5
92.6%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 35Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 11
OPP 35
-5
92.5%
Russell,Seth pass complete to Platt,Chris for 33 yards to the SMU2 (WYATT, Jordan), PENALTY BU ineligible downfield on pass (Fuller,Kyle) 5 yards to the SMU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 16
OPP 40
+3
92.2%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 3 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 13
OPP 37
-5
92.1%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Lynx Hawthorne) to the SMU 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 18
OPP 42
+22
90.2%
Seth Russell pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 22 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
91.0%
Seth Russell run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 24 Seth Russell fumbled, recovered by Bayl Seth RussellSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 24
+6
90.7%
Shock Linwood run for 6 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 18
0
90.7%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Shock LinwoodSimilar
Q2 13:51
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+35
90.6%
Chris Callahan 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7PUNT
13 plays · 41 yds · 2:0010% → 11%
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.2%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
90.2%
HICKS, Ben pass incomplete to SUTTON, C., PENALTY BU pass interference (Vaughns,V.) 15 yards to the SMU42, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
89.8%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete, broken up by Greg RobertsSimilar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+11
89.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Mitchell Kaufman for 11 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
89.7%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+11
89.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 11 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
89.7%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-5
89.7%
SMU Penalty, false start (James Proche) to the Bayl 41Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 15
OPP 41
+9
89.9%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 9 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 11:51
3RD & 6
OPP 32
-2
88.8%
Ben Hicks sacked by Jamie Jacobs and Aiavion Edwards for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 34Similar
Q2 11:51
4TH & 8
OPP 34
0
89.3%
Jamie Sackville punt for 34 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
88.9%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
88.9%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the Bayl 21Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
88.6%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q2 11:00
4TH & 9
OWN 21
-2
88.4%
Drew Galitz punt for 55 yds , James Proche returns for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-4
88.5%
Braeden West run for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 18Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 14
OWN 18
+7
88.6%
Braeden West run for 7 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q2 10:07
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
88.8%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q2 10:07
4TH & 7
OWN 25
-5
89.1%
SMU Penalty, false start (RC Cox) to the SMU 20Similar
Q2 10:07
4TH & 12
OWN 20
-34
89.1%
Jamie Sackville punt for 14 yds , Tony Nicholson returns for a loss of 34 yards to the Bayl 32 Tony Nicholson fumbled, recovered by Bayl Tony NicholsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
87.7%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+3
87.7%
Seth Russell pass complete to Lynx Hawthorne for 3 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+28
87.6%
Seth Russell pass intercepted Jordan Wyatt return for 28 yds to the Bayl 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
85.0%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James Proche, broken up by Tion WrightSimilar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
85.0%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
85.7%
Ben Hicks pass intercepted, touchback. Orion Stewart return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12FUMBLE
19 plays · 80 yds · 0:0086% → 88%
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
86.3%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+4
86.3%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+2
86.1%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q2 7:32
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+2
85.9%
Seth Russell run for 2 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
86.5%
Seth Russell pass complete to Denzel Mims for 7 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 3
OWN 38
0
87.4%
Shock Linwood run for no gain to the Bayl 38Similar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+2
87.0%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q2 7:32
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+1
86.7%
Terence Williams run for 1 yd to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
87.3%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 7 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+9
87.5%
Terence Williams run for 9 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
87.7%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 8 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 2
OPP 35
0
88.1%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 2
OPP 35
-1
87.5%
Terence Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 36Similar
Q2 7:32
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+7
87.0%
Terence Williams run for 7 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 17
OPP 37
+16
87.1%
Seth Russell pass complete to Blake Lynch for 16 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 1
OPP 21
0
88.1%
Shock Linwood run for no gain to the SMU 21Similar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+5
87.6%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 5 yds to the SMU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-8
88.1%
Seth Russell pass complete to Shock Linwood for 4 yds to the SMU 25 BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive holding (-12 Yards) to the SMU 37Similar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+15
88.1%
Seth Russell pass complete to Blake Lynch for 15 yds Blake Lynch fumbled, recovered by SMU Kevin JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13FUMBLE
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
82.5%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 4 yds to the SMU 25 Ke'Mon Freeman fumbled, forced by Patrick Levels, recovered by Bayl Patrick LevelsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5985% → 86%
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
84.9%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
84.9%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q2 2:14
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+4
84.0%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q2 1:15
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+38
86.1%
Chris Callahan 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15END OF HALF
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:0016% → 17%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
83.7%
Braeden West run for 9 yds to the SMU 20Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+8
83.2%
Braeden West run for 8 yds to the SMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
83.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16TD
13 plays · 79 yds · 2:5885% → 91%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
84.9%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+2
85.1%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+6
84.5%
Seth Russell pass complete to Chris Platt for 6 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
85.1%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-10
85.1%
Linwood,Shock rush for 19 yards to the SMU48, out-of-bounds (MITCHELL, Kyran), PENALTY BU holding (Desouza,Dom) 10 yards to the BU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 23
0
84.7%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 23
+15
84.0%
Russell,Seth sacked for loss of 4 yards to the BU19 (LAWLER, Justin), PENALTY SMU personal foul (GREEN, Deon) 15 yards to the BU38, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
85.6%
Seth Russell pass complete to Lynx Hawthorne for 11 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
86.3%
JaMycal Hasty run for 3 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+10
86.6%
Seth Russell pass complete to Blake Lynch for 10 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
86.6%
Seth Russell run for 7 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+31
90.8%
Seth Russell pass complete to Blake Lynch for 31 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 38 yds · 0:0011% → 12%
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
89.1%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the SMU 16Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+5
89.2%
Braeden West run for 5 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+9
89.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 9 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
88.8%
Braeden West run for 8 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+8
87.9%
Braeden West run for 8 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
87.9%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Kevin ThomasSimilar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
88.2%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 7 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
87.8%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q3 11:54
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
88.4%
Jamie Sackville punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
89.5%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Patrick Lawrence) to the Bayl 10Similar
Q3 9:11
1ST & 15
OWN 10
+6
89.5%
Shock Linwood run for 6 yds to the Bayl 16Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+26
89.4%
Seth Russell pass intercepted Darrion Millines return for 26 yds to the Bayl 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19INT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
85.2%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds to the Bayl 16Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+5
85.2%
HICKS, Ben pass incomplete to CASTILLE, X. (Wright,Tion), PENALTY BU offside (Levels,Patrick) 5 yards to the BU11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+7
85.2%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 7 yds to the Bayl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
85.2%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 5Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+62
85.2%
Ben Hicks pass intercepted Davion Hall return for 62 yds to the SMU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20TD
6 plays · 38 yds · 1:2491% → 95%
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
90.9%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 5
OPP 33
-5
91.1%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Denzel Mims) to the SMU 38Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
90.8%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q3 7:07
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+14
90.2%
Terence Williams run for 14 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
91.1%
Terence Williams run for 5 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+19
95.1%
Seth Russell run for 19 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21INT TD
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:486% → 2%
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
93.6%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+10
93.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 10 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+33
98.0%
Ben Hicks pass intercepted for a TD Orion Stewart return for 33 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:152% → 7%
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
98.0%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Mitchell Kaufman, broken up by Raaquan DavisSimilar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
98.1%
Ben Hicks run for 7 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
98.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Castille for 4 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
98.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Mitchell Kaufman for 5 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
98.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+32
98.0%
Braeden West run for 32 yds to the Bayl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
92.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 20 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
95.3%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd to the Bayl 23Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+1
95.2%
Terence Williams run for 1 yd to the Bayl 24Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 8
OWN 24
0
95.0%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Blake Lynch, broken up by Darrion MillinesSimilar
Q3 2:40
4TH & 8
OWN 24
+6
94.9%
Drew Galitz punt for 60 yds , James Proche returns for 6 yds to the SMU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:365% → 5%
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
94.9%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q3 1:06
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
95.0%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q3 1:06
3RD & 10
OWN 22
0
95.1%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:30
4TH & 10
OWN 22
+6
95.2%
Jamie Sackville punt for 43 yds , Tony Nicholson returns for 6 yds to the Bayl 28 BAYLOR Penalty, IB (10 Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 25TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 1:4595% → 99%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
95.3%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
95.2%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD Cannon, broken up by Michael ScottSimilar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+9
95.0%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 9 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q3 0:30
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+2
95.1%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
96.3%
Seth Russell run for 9 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+8
96.4%
Terence Williams run for 8 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
96.3%
Terence Williams run for 10 yds to the SMU 32 Terence Williams fumbled, forced by Jordan Wyatt, recovered by Bayl Denzel MimsSimilar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+32
99.2%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 32 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
99.1%
Braeden West run for 5 yds to the SMU 13 Braeden West fumbled, forced by Patrick Levels, recovered by SMU Jerry SaenaSimilar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+15
99.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 15 yds to the SMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
99.0%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+3
99.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
99.0%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q4 13:45
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
99.1%
Jamie Sackville punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 27DOWNS
18 plays · 66 yds · 5:2399% → 99%
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
99.2%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Dom Desouza) to the Bayl 28Similar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+8
99.2%
JaMycal Hasty run for 8 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+4
99.2%
Seth Russell pass complete to Denzel Mims for 4 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q4 12:04
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+3
99.3%
JaMycal Hasty run for 3 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
99.3%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 6 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+5
99.3%
JaMycal Hasty run for 5 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
99.3%
Seth Russell pass complete to Blake Lynch for 9 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+1
99.3%
Terence Williams run for 1 yd to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
99.3%
Terence Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 37Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+13
99.3%
Seth Russell pass complete to Blake Lynch for 13 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
99.3%
Seth Russell pass complete to Denzel Mims for 3 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 7
OPP 21
0
99.3%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Blake LynchSimilar
Q4 12:04
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+18
99.3%
Terence Williams run for 18 yds to the SMU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
99.3%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the SMU 1Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.3%
Terence Williams run for no gain to the SMU 1Similar
Q4 12:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
99.3%
Terence Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 3Similar
Q4 6:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
99.3%
Seth Russell run for 2 yds to the SMU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
99.3%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for no gain to the SMU 1Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
99.3%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James Proche, broken up by Grayland ArnoldSimilar
Q4 6:33
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+4
99.4%
Braeden West run for 4 yds to the SMU 5Similar
Q4 6:33
4TH & 6
OWN 5
0
99.4%
Jamie Sackville punt for 40 yds, downed at the SMU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 29TD
3 plays · 45 yds · 0:43100% → 100%
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+20
99.5%
JaMycal Hasty run for 20 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+21
99.5%
JaMycal Hasty run for 21 yds to the SMU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
100.0%
JaMycal Hasty run for 4 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Ke'Mon FreemanSimilar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Ryan BeckerSimilar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:16
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Jamie Sackville punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 31PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
100.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 39Similar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 15
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Denzel MimsSimilar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 15
OWN 39
+8
99.9%
Wyatt Schrepfer run for 8 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q4 3:50
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+3
100.0%
Wyatt Schrepfer run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:50
4TH & 4
50
0
99.9%
Drew Galitz punt for 47 yds, downed at the SMU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 32PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+6
100.0%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 6 yds to the SMU 9Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 4
OWN 9
+1
100.0%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the SMU 10Similar
Q4 2:19
3RD & 3
OWN 10
-1
100.0%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 9Similar
Q4 2:19
4TH & 4
OWN 9
+4
100.0%
Jamie Sackville punt for 46 yds , Trevor White returns for 4 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 33END OF GAME
1 play · 21 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+21
100.0%
Wyatt Schrepfer run for 21 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:40
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 20 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)
-5.4
TD · Q3 4:55
Ben Hicks pass intercepted for a TD Orion Stewart return for 33 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan PAT MISSED)
+4.4
TD · Q3 12:02
Seth Russell pass complete to Blake Lynch for 31 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
+4.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com