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NWST

Northwestern State 7 at Baylor 55

BAY
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2016 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadNWST aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreNWST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:46 · Drew Galitz punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Shakeir Ryan at the NWSt 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 163Pregame prior+20.3Home team on offense+33.7Score differential+29.6Blowout margin+16.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+12.3Garbage-time factor+12.9
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 6:52: Chris Callahan 23 yd FG GOOD — NWST win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 4:26: Seth Russell pass complete to Sam Tecklenburg for 4 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 1:02: Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 6 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 10:19: Chris Callahan 33 yd FG GOOD — BAY win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 8:03: Seth Russell pass complete to Jordan Feuerbacher for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK) — BAY win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 7 of 7NWST made the numbers' call on 10 of 13
  1. Q1 14:55NWST 4th & 3 at NWST 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:52BAY 4th & 6 at NWST 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    98.6%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:52NWST 4th & 14 at NWST 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:26BAY 4th & 4 at NWST 4, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.0%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    98.5%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:26NWST 4th & 24 at NWST 21, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00NWST 4th & 16 at NWST 38, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:19BAY 4th & 6 at NWST 16, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.3%
    81% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:19NWST 4th & 17 at NWST 4, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:03NWST 4th & 6 at NWST 39, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:00NWST 4th & 9 at NWST 26, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:13NWST 4th & 7 at NWST 28, down 55
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:13NWST 4th & 5 at BAY 49, down 55
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:02BAY 4th & 18 at BAY 7, up 55
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:58NWST 4th & 8 at BAY 40, down 48
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:52BAY 4th & 8 at BAY 34, up 48
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:19NWST 4th & 3 at NWST 32, down 48
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:46BAY 4th & 14 at BAY 15, up 48
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:03NWST 4th & 5 at BAY 46, down 48
    Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    -0.0%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:44BAY 4th & 4 at BAY 28, up 48
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    100.0%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:29NWST 4th & 11 at NWST 37, down 48
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 7 of 7NWST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:46BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:26BAY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:02BAY Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:03BAY Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:00BAY Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:07BAY Touchdown, up 47 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:13BAY Touchdown, up 54 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:51NWST Touchdown, down 49 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NWSTDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
99.6%
De'Mard Llorens run for a loss of 1 yard to the NWSt 13Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 11
OWN 13
+8
99.6%
De'Mard Llorens run for 8 yds to the NWSt 21Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 3
OWN 21
0
99.6%
De'Mard Llorens run for no gain to the NWSt 21Similar
Q1 14:55
4TH & 3
OWN 21
0
99.6%
Eric Piccione punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2TD
7 plays · 59 yds · 1:59100% → 100%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
99.5%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 6 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+3
99.5%
Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 1
50
-10
99.5%
Linwood,Shock rush for 3 yards to the NWST47 (Balthazar, Aust), PENALTY BU holding (Fuller,Kyle) 10 yards to the BU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+42
99.5%
Shock Linwood run for 42 yds to the NWSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
99.5%
Seth Russell pass complete to Quan Jones for 5 yds to the NWSt 13Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 5
OPP 13
0
99.5%
Seth Russell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+13
99.5%
Terence Williams run for 13 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -21 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.5%
Chris Jones run for a loss of 5 yards to the NWSt 20Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-12
99.5%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Shakeir Ryan for a loss of 12 yards to the NWSt 8 NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 27
OWN 8
0
99.5%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Chris JonesSimilar
Q1 10:46
4TH & 27
OWN 8
-4
99.5%
NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, false start (-4 Yards) to the NWSt 4Similar
Q1 10:46
4TH & 31
OWN 4
+10
99.5%
Eric Piccione punt for 37 yds , Tony Nicholson returns for 10 yds to the NWSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4FG
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:3799% → 99%
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
99.4%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 8 yds to the NWSt 23Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+16
99.4%
Shock Linwood run for 16 yds to the NWSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
99.4%
Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the NWSt 2Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.4%
Seth Russell run for no gain to the NWSt 2Similar
Q1 9:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-10
99.4%
Williams,T. rush for 1 yard to the NWST1 (Krolczyk, Zak), PENALTY BU holding (Fuller,Kyle) 10 yards to the NWST12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+6
99.4%
Terence Williams run for 6 yds to the NWSt 6Similar
Q1 6:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
99.3%
Chris Callahan 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.3%
Brooks Haack pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-4
99.3%
De'Mard Llorens run for a loss of 4 yards to the NWSt 21Similar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
99.3%
Brooks Haack pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:52
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+6
99.4%
Eric Piccione punt for 36 yds , Tony Nicholson returns for 6 yds to the NWSt 27 NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, IF (-5 Yards) to the NWSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6TD
8 plays · 46 yds · 1:2499% → 99%
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
99.3%
Seth Russell pass complete to Chris Platt for 12 yds to the NWSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+18
99.3%
Shock Linwood run for 18 yds to the NWSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+10
99.3%
Shock Linwood run for 10 yds to the NWSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.3%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD CannonSimilar
Q1 5:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
99.3%
Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the NWSt 4Similar
Q1 5:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.3%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD Cannon, broken up by Caviaan RachalSimilar
Q1 4:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.4%
Seth Russell pass complete to Sam Tecklenburg for 4 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -14 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
99.4%
Chris Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the NWSt 21 Chris Jones fumbled, forced by Patrick Levels, recovered by NWSt Tuff McClain , return for a loss of 3 yards to the NWSt 21Similar
Q1 4:26
4TH & 24
OWN 21
0
99.4%
Eric Piccione punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 45Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 24
OWN 21
0
99.4%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Tuff McClainSimilar
Q1 4:26
3RD & 24
OWN 21
0
99.4%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Tuff McClainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8TD
9 plays · 55 yds · 2:2099% → 100%
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
99.4%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 15 yds to the NWSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.4%
Seth Russell pass incomplete to Chris PlattSimilar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+11
99.4%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 11 yds to the NWSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
99.4%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the NWSt 25Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 6
OPP 25
-5
99.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NWSt 30Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+17
99.4%
Terence Williams run for 17 yds to the NWSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
99.4%
Terence Williams run for 7 yds to the NWSt 6Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 3
OPP 6
0
99.4%
Seth Russell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:02
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+6
99.5%
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 6 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 1:021% → 1%
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+20
99.5%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Bobby Chan-Chan for 20 yds to the NWSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
99.4%
De'Mard Llorens run for 4 yds to the NWSt 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
99.4%
Brooks Haack run for no gain to the NWSt 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+10
99.4%
Haack, Brooks pass incomplete to Chan-Chan, Bobb, QB hurry by Levels,Patrick, PENALTY BU pass interference (Reid,Ryan) 10 yards to the NWST44, 1ST DOWN NWST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
99.4%
De'Mard Llorens run for a loss of 1 yard to the NWSt 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 43
0
99.4%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Bobby Chan-Chan, broken up by Verkedric VaughnsSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 43
0
99.4%
Brooks Haack pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 43
-5
99.5%
NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NWSt 38Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 38
+23
99.5%
Eric Piccione punt for 46 yds , Tony Nicholson returns for 23 yds to the BAYLOR 39 BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Bayl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10FG
8 plays · 55 yds · 2:35100% → 100%
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+19
99.5%
JaMycal Hasty run for 19 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+18
99.6%
Seth Russell pass complete to Quan Jones for 18 yds to the NWSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
99.6%
JaMycal Hasty run for 14 yds to the NWSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
99.6%
Seth Russell pass complete to Chris Platt for 7 yds to the NWSt 13Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 3
OPP 13
0
99.6%
JaMycal Hasty run for no gain to the NWSt 13Similar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 3
OPP 13
-3
99.5%
Shock Linwood run for a loss of 3 yards to the NWSt 16Similar
Q2 10:19
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+33
99.7%
Chris Callahan 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-2
99.7%
Ronald Green run for a loss of 2 yards to the NWSt 9Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 12
OWN 9
-2
99.7%
Joel Blumenthal run for a loss of 2 yards to the NWSt 7Similar
Q2 10:19
3RD & 14
OWN 7
0
99.7%
Joel Blumenthal pass incomplete to Bobby Chan-ChanSimilar
Q2 10:19
4TH & 14
OWN 7
-3
99.7%
NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, false start (-3 Yards) to the NWSt 4Similar
Q2 10:19
4TH & 17
OWN 4
+44
99.7%
Eric Piccione punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NWSt 5 , Tony Nicholson returns for 44 yds to the NWSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12TD
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:31100% → 100%
Q2 8:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.6%
Seth Russell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.6%
Terence Williams run for no gain to the NWSt 5Similar
Q2 8:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.8%
Seth Russell pass complete to Jordan Feuerbacher for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.8%
De'Mard Llorens run for 1 yd to the NWSt 36Similar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-3
99.8%
De'Mard Llorens run for a loss of 3 yards to the NWSt 33Similar
Q2 8:03
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+6
99.8%
Joel Blumenthal pass complete to De'Mard Llorens for 6 yds to the NWSt 39Similar
Q2 8:03
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
99.8%
Eric Piccione punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 0:50100% → 100%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
99.8%
Seth Russell pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 11 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
99.8%
Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+45
99.8%
Seth Russell pass complete to Lynx Hawthorne for 45 yds to the NWSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.8%
Seth Russell pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 10 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Brooks Haack run for no gain to the NWSt 25Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.8%
Brooks Haack pass complete to Ronald Green for 6 yds to the NWSt 31Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
99.8%
Brooks Haack sacked by Taylor Young for a loss of 5 yards to the NWSt 26Similar
Q2 5:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+27
99.8%
Eric Piccione punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BAYLOR 42 NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, IF (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16TD
7 plays · 53 yds · 1:41100% → 100%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
99.9%
Terence Williams run for 5 yds to the NWSt 48Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+3
99.9%
Terence Williams run for 3 yds to the NWSt 45Similar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+2
99.9%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the NWSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
99.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Jared Atkinson for 9 yds to the NWSt 34Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+19
99.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Blake Lynch for 19 yds to the NWSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+14
99.9%
Terence Williams run for 14 yds to the NWSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Terence Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 17END OF HALF
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
99.9%
De'Mard Llorens run for 12 yds to the NWSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
99.9%
De'Mard Llorens run for 5 yds to the NWSt 38Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+1
99.9%
De'Mard Llorens run for 1 yd to the NWSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18TD
11 plays · 62 yds · 3:47100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
99.9%
JaMycal Hasty run for 5 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+6
99.9%
JaMycal Hasty run for 6 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
99.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Quan Jones for 9 yds to the NWSt 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 42
-5
99.9%
Hasty,JaMycal rush for 10 yards to the NWST32 (Welch, Koby), PENALTY BU false start 5 yards to the NWST47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Quan JonesSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+11
99.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Quan Jones for 11 yds to the NWSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
99.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Quan JonesSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+7
99.9%
JaMycal Hasty run for 7 yds to the NWSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+17
99.9%
JaMycal Hasty run for 17 yds to the NWSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Blake Lynch for 12 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
De'Mard Llorens run for 4 yds to the NWSt 29Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Tuff McClain, broken up by Jameson HoustonSimilar
Q3 11:13
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-1
99.9%
Brooks Haack sacked by K.J. Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the NWSt 28Similar
Q3 11:13
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+8
99.9%
Chris Jones run for 8 yds to the NWSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.9%
Chris Jones run for 5 yds to the NWSt 41Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+5
99.9%
Chris Jones run for 5 yds to the NWSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
99.9%
Chris Jones run for 5 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 5
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Ronald GreenSimilar
Q3 11:13
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Brooks Haack pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:13
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Eric Piccione punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-8
99.9%
Bennema,Zack rush for 10 yards to the BU25 (Balthazar, Aust), PENALTY BU holding 8 yards to the BU7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 18
OWN 7
0
99.9%
Zack Bennema pass incomplete, broken up by Darrien BatisteSimilar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 18
OWN 7
+1
99.9%
Wyatt Schrepfer run for 1 yd to the Bayl 8Similar
Q3 7:02
3RD & 17
OWN 8
+4
99.9%
Wyatt Schrepfer run for 4 yds to the Bayl 12Similar
Q3 7:02
4TH & 13
OWN 12
-5
99.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, delay of game (Drew Galitz) to the Bayl 7Similar
Q3 7:02
4TH & 18
OWN 7
0
99.9%
Drew Galitz punt for 38 yds, downed at the Bayl 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 21TD
9 plays · 45 yds · 4:120% → 0%
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
99.9%
Ronald Green run for 10 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
99.9%
Ronald Green run for no gain to the Bayl 35Similar
Q3 5:03
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-4
99.9%
Brooks Haack run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 39Similar
Q3 5:03
3RD & 14
OPP 39
+15
99.9%
Haack, Brooks pass incomplete to Lazare, Cameron, PENALTY BU pass interference (Wright,Tion) 15 yards to the BU24, 1ST DOWN NWST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
99.9%
De'Mard Llorens run for 3 yds to the Bayl 21Similar
Q3 5:03
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+6
99.9%
De'Mard Llorens run for 6 yds to the Bayl 15Similar
Q3 5:03
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+1
99.9%
Charles Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Bayl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
99.9%
Chris Jones run for 11 yds to the Bayl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Brooks Haack run for 3 yds for a TD, (Eric Piccione KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22FUMBLE
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
99.9%
Wyatt Schrepfer run for 6 yds to the Bayl 42 Wyatt Schrepfer fumbled, forced by Koby Welch, recovered by NWSt Nick PierottiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:430% → 0%
Q3 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
99.9%
Jared West run for 2 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Joel Blumenthal run for no gain to the Bayl 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Joel Blumenthal pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:58
4TH & 8
OPP 40
0
100.0%
Eric Piccione punt for 8 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
100.0%
Preston Heard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:52
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
100.0%
Wyatt Schrepfer run for no gain to the Bayl 32Similar
Q4 13:52
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+2
100.0%
Wyatt Schrepfer run for 2 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q4 13:52
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Drew Galitz punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Shakeir Ryan at the NWSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
100.0%
Hunter Bedgood run for 1 yd to the NWSt 26Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
100.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, sideline interference (5 Yards) to the NWSt 31Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
100.0%
Hunter Bedgood run for 1 yd to the NWSt 32Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
100.0%
Joel Blumenthal pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:19
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+1
100.0%
Parker Pastorello punt for 50 yds , Trevor White returns for 1 yd to the Bayl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
100.0%
Wyatt Schrepfer run for no gain to the Bayl 19Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+1
100.0%
Wyatt Schrepfer run for 1 yd to the Bayl 20Similar
Q4 10:46
3RD & 9
OWN 20
-5
100.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 15Similar
Q4 10:46
3RD & 14
OWN 15
0
100.0%
Wyatt Schrepfer run for no gain to the Bayl 15Similar
Q4 10:46
4TH & 14
OWN 15
0
100.0%
Drew Galitz punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Shakeir Ryan at the NWSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-8
100.0%
Nigel Dora run for a loss of 8 yards to the NWSt 41Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 18
OWN 41
+2
100.0%
Nigel Dora run for 2 yds to the NWSt 43Similar
Q4 8:03
3RD & 16
OWN 43
+11
100.0%
J.D. Almond pass complete to William Mafi for 11 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q4 8:03
4TH & 5
OPP 46
+11
100.0%
Parker Pastorello punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 22 , Trevor White returns for 11 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
100.0%
Wyatt Schrepfer run for 4 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 6
OWN 26
-1
100.0%
Wyatt Schrepfer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 25Similar
Q4 5:44
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
Wyatt Schrepfer run for 3 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q4 5:44
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
100.0%
Drew Galitz punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Shakeir Ryan at the NWSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
100.0%
Jared West run for no gain to the NWSt 38Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-1
100.0%
Jared West run for a loss of 1 yard to the NWSt 37Similar
Q4 3:29
3RD & 11
OWN 37
0
100.0%
Austin Skinner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:29
4TH & 11
OWN 37
+39
100.0%
Parker Pastorello punt for 44 yds, downed at the BAYLOR 19 NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, IF (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 30END OF GAME
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:17100% → 100%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
100.0%
Preston Heard run for 13 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
100.0%
Preston Heard run for 4 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+1
100.0%
Preston Heard run for 1 yd to the Bayl 42Similar
Q4 1:34
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
100.0%
Dwyer Bucey run for no gain to the Bayl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 4:26
Seth Russell pass complete to Sam Tecklenburg for 4 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
+0.2
TD · Q1 1:02
Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 6 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
+0.2
TD · Q2 8:03
Seth Russell pass complete to Jordan Feuerbacher for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
+0.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com